<a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Tiamat" href="#" target="_blank">Tiamat</a> Illustrated by <a href="https://scryfall.com/search?q=a%3A%E2%80%9CChris+Rahn%E2%80%9D&amp;unique=art" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chris Rahn</a>
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Hello, and welcome to Am I the Bolas?
This column is for all of you out there who have ever played some Magic and wondered if you were the bad guy. I'm here to take in your story with all of its nuances so I can bring some clarity to all those asking, "Am I the Bolas?"
I'm ready to hear you out and offer advice. All you have to do is email amithebolas@gmail.com with your story, a pseudonym you want to use, and of course, only include details you don't mind in the column! You might see your story below one day. You might even hear it on the podcast. Which podcast?
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter wp-image-25893" src="https://commandersherald.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/bolcast_logo430x430-300x300.png" alt="" width="249" height="249" />
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/@AmITheBolcast" target="_blank" rel="noopener">THIS PODCAST!</a>
I'm Mike Carrozza, aka Mark Carbonza, and my friend wants to show you his cool new thing!
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Alpharael, Dreaming Acolyte"></div></div>
Ouhhh, yeah Alphie, very fancy!
This week, is win rate a reason to go for someone?
(Post edited for brevity, clarity, and then some.)
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<h2>SUBMISSION</h2>
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Hey guys, long time listener, first time writer. I had a scenario I was hoping you can help me with and determine if I was the Bolas. This happened a while back at my local LGS at a free play Commander night. I found a group that needed a fourth and sat down and played three games with them.
The first game was mostly uneventful; someone won with a combo they stumbled into involving energy and infinite combat.
The second game we played, the same player ended up winning again. This one was a little interesting because I was playing mill and they told me they were playing a deck that wanted cards in the graveyard but I figured if I could mill them quick enough, it would be fine (I was running a deck that blinks <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Gyruda, Doom of Depths" href="#" target="_blank">Gyruda, Doom of Depths</a> a bunch), but they got <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Syr Konrad, the Grim" href="#" target="_blank">Syr Konrad, the Grim</a> out and could recur it pretty reliably.
We go to game three and it's the end of the night, so I get out my end of the night <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Tiamat" href="#" target="_blank">Tiamat</a> deck (pre-Tarkir: Dragonstorm). I don't remember what the other player was running but once I ramped up and got Tiamat out, I started attacking them first by sending Tiamat and another Dragon at them, I think it was 11 damage or so, this was because by this point, I know they are a good player and wanted to start up a blow for blow situation with them. I wanted to make 'em work for it. As I declare my two Dragons as attackers at the player, they become very defensive and explain another similar situation where someone in their pod had basically said this player was a better deck builder than them and was targeting them specifically. 
I felt bad and I could tell the player was genuinely upset so I apologized and told them I would spread my damage to other places as the game goes on to not single them out. Fast forward a couple of turns and I am clearly the threat but the player is definitely next in line. Well, someone else at the table is playing <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Thantis, the Warweaver" href="#" target="_blank">Thantis, the Warweaver</a> so now I have to attack with everything. I declared my attackers in such a way that if I connect, I'll win. The player then casts a <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Fog" href="#" target="_blank">Fog</a> effect for themselves as the other two players are knocked out and since Thantis made me attack with everything, I've got shields down. They easily swoop in and take me out, winning game three as well. After the games, the player is pretty chill and we end up talking about the games. No hard feelings were had but I'm wondering if I was the Bolas for assessing threats based on previous games or if my threat assessment was reasonable.
Thank you for your time and sorry for the mountain of text.
Manky
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<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Syr Konrad, the Grim"></div></div>
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<h2>VERDICT</h2>
Thank you for writing and asking me to weigh in on your story. As I mention every week, if folks don't write to me, there's no column, so if you, the reader, want to send me a story, whether it's your own or one from Reddit or a friend's, please send it to amithebolas@gmail.com and I'll get to it here.
Thanks for reading the column and listening to the podcast, Manky. Let's get into this submission, already!
First off, you've seen a bunch of submissions and this isn't the mountain of text you think it is! I reject your apology, it's wholly unnecessary. Also, if a submission is long, it's long! Who cares, as long as it's a good story? Let me worry about the length. (Editors' note: more like let us worry about the length...)
Threat assessment is a hot topic here at Am I The Bolas?, and it's because people doubt their ability to do it right. It's easy to be uncertain given all the things you need to keep track of: the social aspect of Commander, typically three times the regular amount of opponents with all their stuff, and of course, players' reactions to plays in EDH.
What I mean here is that when a player gets defensive of your targeting of them, whether they're trying to or not, they are sowing doubt in your decision-making. It can even be minimizing tactic some employ to get you to bend to the unspoken rules of the format where "we're all trying to have fun." (Luckily, it doesn't always work.)
I encourage folks to openly admit when they are the threat. It'll add to your credibility for when you need to point out threats at the table, but at the same time, honesty is a good way to get invited back. Not to mention, if a newer player is at the table, I think the better way to show them the ropes is through genuine interaction rather than to "teach 'em a lesson."
Threat assessment is often talked about regarding in-game information, but that's not the only part of it. Threat assessment with information in-game is definitely a little easier. It's pretty easy to say that the player with a huge board that threatens to attack you after playing a <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Ruinous Ultimatum" href="#" target="_blank">Ruinous Ultimatum</a> is more of a threat than the player who also got their board wrecked like yours.
Whether it's a game win or a personal victory like trying to pull off a particular interaction, you've got in-game information that tells you what hurdles you'll need to jump over to get there. Will <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Rest in Peace" href="#" target="_blank">Rest in Peace</a> need to be dealt with if I'm playing a <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Teysa Karlov" href="#" target="_blank">Teysa Karlov</a> deck? I'd say so!
You ask yourself, "Who is most likely to get me off my plan or win before I can execute?"
The information you gain from a step back from the current board state is still good to consider. With more sample data, you'll more reliably draw some conclusions.
Breaking it down that way, you've observed this player to be notably more adept at winning the game. When a player has a 100% win rate at a table after one game, they've won one game - cool, let's shuffle up. When they win the second game, they've stood out as player who's demonstrated they have what it takes to win. They're a winner.
If they're a winner, I can't be a winner. Now, I must do everything I can to make sure I improve my chances at winning. The clearest obstruction to that in the past two games has been this player, so wouldn't I have to keep a closer eye on what they do if I'm trying to win?
It is totally fair to acknowledge the pilot in your threat assessment beyond just what's in-game. It's reasonable to keep an eye on the player who's been winning all night!
Not the Bolas.
Especially since you guys have had a chat and you've acknowledged your feelings on the matter and apologized for it. All on good terms! Ultimately, it doesn't quite matter what I have to say as long as you end up having a chat with someone and come out on the other side happier for it. Thanks for writing in!
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Gyruda, Doom of Depths"></div></div>

commander salt

Am I The Bolas? - Win Rate Threat Assessment