<p style="text-align: right;"><em><span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Threats Around Every Corner" href="#" target="_blank">Threats Around Every Corner</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> | Art by <a href="https://www.artstation.com/andreapiparo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Andrea Piparo</a></em></p>
<p>Hello, and welcome back to <em>How To Be New</em>, a series for players who, only after three mulligans, suddenly realize that the problem they're having with their brand new deck isn't just unfortunate luck of the draw.</p>
<p>I hope you had a wonderful time over the holidays, and I'm looking forward to another year of <em>Magic</em> with you. And it's starting fast, with <em>Lorwyn Eclipsed</em> prerelease events already happening this weekend! What is Lorwyn? What is it being eclipsed by? I'm not sure, but apparently the set was codenamed "wrestling," which <a href="https://youtu.be/sg-IsLh5jtM?si=PgNzj4fXvud51xYK" target="_blank" rel="noopener">gives me some ideas</a>.</p>
<p>And, wait a second, oh my god they made a <a href="https://youtu.be/TG1mJ7zpi10?si=ZOKzMpVuvxKZnrqU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JIM HENSON COMPANY PUPPET TRAILER</a>?! Alright. Might be a pretty fun year.</p>
<p>Today, we're going to talk about a term that you'll hear pretty often in nearly every Commander pod: <strong>Threat Assessment.</strong> Is it a skill? Is it a card? Is it one of those overpowered Warhammer precons that people mutter rumors about in hushed whispers where the Wizards of the Coast can't hear them? Well, it's sort of complicated. So let's dive in.</p>
<hr />
<h2>What Is Threat Assessment?</h2>
<p>On its face, "threat assessment" refers to the act of looking around a game of Commander and determining who, if left unchecked by the other players, is most likely to win the game. It's important, because shutting down threats will not only keep you in the game long enough to hopefully get to your own win condition, it will also ingratiate you to your fellow players at the table.</p>
<p>And getting an invite back to the pod is really one of the biggest wins you'll have in <em>Magic</em>.</p>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Imaginary Threats"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Threats Around Every Corner"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Threats Undetected"></div></div>
<p>Threat assessment is often used to answer one or both of the following questions:</p>
<ul>
<li>Is anybody close enough to their win condition that the rest of the table should team up against them?</li>
<li>Who should I attack, or who should I hit in the face* with damage?</li>
</ul>
<p>*<em>"hitting in the face," "going face," "taking damage to my face," are all phrases that refer to damage which will be dealt directly to a player's life points, rather than to a creature. In this way, Magic: the Gathering operates a lot like The Three Stooges: <a href="https://youtu.be/lk6_7DTVN8Q?si=hEIVnSuEc5d-wYr1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">If I can't block it, it's hitting me right in the face</a>.</em></p>
<p>But there are a lot of things that factor into threat assessment. And there are darker truths that <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Dark Depths" href="#" target="_blank">lie just below</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> all the facts and figures that go into a good threat assessment. Here are some tips for properly assessing the threat at your commander table.</p>
<h2>Threat Assessment Is (Mostly) Not Based on Life Total</h2>
<p style="text-align: left;">I'm sure even a relatively new Commander player can identify that a player with eight life and a <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Krenko, Mob Boss" href="#" target="_blank">Krenko, Mob Boss</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> who's churning out 36² Goblin tokens on every player's turn is much more of a threat than a person with 40 life who hasn't been able to play a land since turn two.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">That's because life total is not how you keep score in Commander. It's merely the clock which tells you how long you have left to win the game. And until that <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Midnight Clock" href="#" target="_blank">clock strikes midnight</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>, Cinderella still has plenty of time to break a glass heel off in your sternum. Always remember that the only important life point is your last one, and until then, anything can happen.</p>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Life Chisel"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Life Finds a Way"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Life Insurance"></div></div>
<p>Also consider that games of Commander almost unilaterally devolve into a heavyweight slugfest akin to the end of a Rocky movie, where jabs have long been abandoned in favor of big, meaty haymakers. Which is to say, games will much more often end with a person attacking with 30+ power rather than a four-power attacker that just manages to slip through the opponent's defenses.</p>
<p>So rather than assessing threats by comparing life totals, let's look instead at the way players will gear themselves up for that 30+ swing.</p>
<p><em>Note: Many players will insist that leaving life total outliers is also bad threat assessment, and insist that the table's life totals be whittled down with some sense of equilibrium. This, I argue, is a matter of defensive threat assessment, which I will be discussing later.</em></p>
<h2>Resources Are a Threat</h2>
<p>There are two things necessary to win a game of Commander, and neither of them are <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Deflecting Swat" href="#" target="_blank">Deflecting Swat</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>. They are cards and mana. Every single deck operates on those two things as its lifeblood. Think about it, why are people so wary of blue players and green players? Because blue has a reputation for dominating on cards, and green has a reputation for dominating on mana. We often see these players as threats simply because they have better command than anybody else over the two most foundational parts of the game.</p>
<p>Does that mean that blue and green players are obvious threats and should be treated as such? No**. But they could become threats if those parts of their engine start coming together. However, this is also true for a player in white who has <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Trouble in Pairs" href="#" target="_blank">Trouble in Pairs</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> and <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Smuggler&#039;s Share" href="#" target="_blank">Smuggler&#039;s Share</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> both up and running.</p>
<p>At this point, every color and combination has access to these tools, and any deck worth its salt will have pieces to create these advantages for itself (have you ever seen a precon deck without <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Sol Ring" href="#" target="_blank">Sol Ring</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>?).</p>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Sidequest: Card Collection"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Buried Treasure"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Deceptive Landscape"></div></div>
<p>So, if a player has something that is creating free mana or card draw at a rate that outpaces the other players, that player should be seen as a threat. Even if their threatening pieces aren't on the board yet, they're coming, and the statistics say that they will see the battlefield before your answers do.</p>
<p>This is <em>especially</em> true of players who are creating a lot of <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Treasure" href="#" target="_blank">Treasure</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> tokens. A person playing extra lands must use cards from their hand. This also creates an easily surveyable mass of cards in front of your them that you can eyeball to determine their relative level of available mana. Lands are like poker chips in this way: You don't need to know the specifics to understand that more is generally better. But Treasure tokens are typically tracked by incrementing a spindown die perched innocently on a Treasure token. It's very easy to lose track of just how much mana your opponent is amassing, which makes that mana all the more threatening.</p>
<p><em>**Yes</em></p>
<h2>Board State: Clear and Present Danger</h2>
<p>The most common way to do a quick threat assessment is by surveying what each player currently has on the battlefield (often referred to as their "board state"). And while there are plenty of nasty creatures that can make a player a threat just by hitting the battlefield (so precious few will see a <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Craterhoof Behemoth" href="#" target="_blank">Craterhoof Behemoth</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> land on the table and live to tell the tale), the real skill is in identifying impending threats.</p>
<p>One thing to keep an eye out for is any creature that is growing stronger each turn, and how fast they're doing so. For example, creatures that accumulate +1/+1 counters quickly need to be watched. There are a lot of <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Hardened Scales" href="#" target="_blank">counter</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Doubling Season" href="#" target="_blank">doublers</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> in <em>Magic</em>, so while a single +1/+1 counter doesn't seem like much, with just a simple enchantment or two, <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Ms. Bumbleflower" href="#" target="_blank">Ms. Bumbleflower</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> can grow from a friendly 1/5 into a world ending 45/49 before you can say "I'd love to draw a card."</p>
<p>This applies to anything that amasses tokens as well. I mentioned <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Krenko, Mob Boss" href="#" target="_blank">Krenko, Mob Boss</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> earlier, as he's the commander that teaches many new players this lesson, myself included.</p>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Ms. Bumbleflower"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Krenko, Mob Boss"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Lightning Greaves"></div></div>
<p>Another thing to watch is anything that's gaining layers of protection. Voltron decks (decks which involve outfitting a single, <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Captain America, First Avenger" href="#" target="_blank">terrifying</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Dogmeat, Ever Loyal" href="#" target="_blank">creature</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> with every shiny piece of Equipment that's ever been printed) for example, are big on layers of protection. Things like hexproof, ward, shroud, indestructible, will all make removal opportunities few and far between.</p>
<p>Oftentimes, Voltron creatures will require a coordinated effort to strip away a few protective pieces of Equipment so that someone else can remove the creature before its owner can replace those defensive layers. And that requires artifact and enchantment removal, both of which are largely underrepresented in commander deck lists.</p>
<p>So be sure to deal with those creatures before you lose your chance.</p>
<h2>Threat Assessment for the Neurodivergent: The Person Whose Turn Takes Too Long</h2>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Monologue Tax"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Mind Grind"></div></div>
<p>This isn't necessarily an official tip, but it has served me well as a person with ADHD. If there's a person whose turn is taking so long that you take out your phone to hop on Reddit, they need to go. Lots of game actions usually means that person is making progress towards a win condition of some sort. And if they aren't meaningfully moving towards a win condition with all of those game actions, that's all the more reason to take them out.</p>
<p>If a person digs through their discard pile five times per turn, kindly remind them that the <em>Yu-Gi-Oh!</em> tables are across the store and send them to the shadow realm however possible. Threats to your mental health deserve assessment too.</p>
<h2>The Unspoken Truth About Threat Assessment</h2>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Mob Verdict"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Council&#039;s Deliberation"></div></div>
<p>Now, all of these are perfectly fine ways to go about threat assessment, and should help you to identify where your attention should go in your next game of Commander. But there's another layer to threat assessment, and that's the social deduction aspect. A lot of the things we do at a Commander table, like spreading around damage, not going all out with early attacks, these are things we do in an attempt to label ourselves as not the threat.</p>
<p>You may notice that when going through a threat assessment at the table, nobody ever really admits that they're the problem. At most, the player who's ahead will say something like "Yeah, I had a good opening hand," and leave it at that (with the exception of a guy at a game recently who pointed out the infinite combo he was going to pull off next turn as he passed, allowing us ample time to thwart it. It was the most bizzarely honorable thing I've ever seen at a Commander table).</p>
<p>So no threat assessment will ever be perfect. And like anything, opinions will differ around the table due to perceptions and biases and obfuscations. But if you can back up your point of view, and continue to improve as you go, you'll get the all-important invite back to the pod.</p>
<p>And until you're a master, you can just point fingers at the mono-blue and mono-green players in the meantime. It may not be perfect, but it's a time-honored tradition for a reason.</p>


How To Be New at Threat Assessment in Commander

<p style="text-align: right;"><em><span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Monastery Mentor|mom|28" href="#" target="_blank">Monastery Mentor</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> | Art by <a href="https://www.artstation.com/tots" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Brian Valeza</a></em></p>
<p>Welcome to <em>How To Be New</em>, a series for players who can read the card three times and still need it explained to them.</p>
<p>This week, I'm doing a little twist on the format. This article isn't about things newer players can do to help themselves exist in Commander spaces. Instead, it's about things veteran players can do to ensure that the newer players at your table feel welcome.</p>
<hr />
<p>It may seem obvious, but it feels warranted to say that being a new player at a Commander table is an extremely harrowing experience.</p>
<p>Truly and honestly, I remember my first night going to an open mic to do stand-up comedy, and I can tell you that I was way more nervous sitting down at a table to play my first game of Commander. At least at the open mic, I could watch some people do poorly before I got my chance to go up and tell my jokes.</p>
<p>When you sit down at your first Commander table, you're sitting down with three people who certainly know more than you do, who definitely have decks that are more powerful and/or more cohesive than yours, and who even likely know the general composition of their opponents' decks and how to play around them.</p>
<p>Furthermore, you're locked in for maybe an hour playing this deck that you're trying to hold together, like sand pouring through your fingers, while at least at the open mic I knew that no matter what happened, I'd be off the stage in five minutes.</p>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Monastery Mentor"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Harsh Mentor"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Gorion, Wise Mentor"></div></div>
<p>And at the comedy club, they didn't make me immediately do my same jokes again for the same exact people who just heard them. But you, a new Commander player, likely only have this one deck to play in subsequent rounds, and the cards in it won't get any better between games.</p>
<p>Being brand new is really tough. And thankfully, a ton of the Commander players I've met went out of their way to make me feel welcomed when I was just starting out. It's one of the unspoken rules of this hobby: Be nice to the new player. That really does mean the world to the people it benefits.</p>
<p>Someone's first Commander experience is a beautiful, fragile thing, and the way people universally seek to protect it makes me have faith in the general good that exists within the <em>Magic</em> community (and are the memories I cling tightly to when I want to crash out after someone asks me "Cards in hand?" on turn two at a Prerelease).</p>
<p>So today I want to shout out a couple of the exemplary moves that I've seen veteran players make for me and for other new players. Hopefully you can adopt some of these when you find a new player at your table, because they truly are the reason I'm still here writing about this game.</p>
<h2>Move 1: Helping a Lost Player Find Their Home</h2>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Frodo, Adventurous Hobbit"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Sam, Loyal Attendant"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Propaganda"></div></div>
<p>After I'd been to a couple of Commander nights, I was feeling pretty good about myself. I figured I was just one of the regular crew, and could really pick anywhere to sit. So I sat down with a group of players who all had gigantic boxes with them (a detail I should've considered more closely at the time) and we shuffled up and drew.</p>
<p>I don't remember a ton about the game we played. I do remember one player was using Frodo as his Commander (I can't remember exactly which iteration of Frodo, as all seem very strong, but I believe it was <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Frodo, Adventurous Hobbit" href="#" target="_blank">Frodo, Adventurous Hobbit</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> because I seem to remember <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Sam, Loyal Attendant" href="#" target="_blank">Sam, Loyal Attendant</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> playing an important role), and I thought that was fun, as I hadn't seen Frodo on a table yet.</p>
<p>I was considerably less amused four turns later when his side of the board was flooded with strong creatures and all I had out was <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Propaganda" href="#" target="_blank">Propaganda</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>. I'd been able to get away with slower starts like this at the more casual tables I'd become used to, but I was seeing stars at how quickly this game ramped out of control for all three of my opponents.</p>
<p>Not having any blockers, I did become a target for one player in particular (which, look, I get it. But c'mon, sometimes you have to factor in someone's wide-eyed look of helplessness when you do your threat assessment). A couple of turns later, I was eliminated from the game entirely on accident, as a byproduct of a card that was clearly played mostly for the card draw it would provide.</p>
<p>And let me tell you, I've never felt so defeated in a game of <em>Magic</em> before or since. It was so clear that I was in a weight class much higher than I'd been training against.</p>
<p>The game ended fairly quickly afterwards, and as soon as it did, the Frodo player looked over to me. I can't summon the wording he used exactly, but he asked very kindly if I'd like to swap with one of his friends. I nodded, and he surveyed the game store for a moment before shouting to a person he knew who was between games and asking if he'd mind swapping pods. They said sure, came over, and I scooped my cards up and shuffled to the other table.</p>
<p>The Frodo player had, probably from his past experience with the players at this store, made the exact right call. This table played at a much lower power-level, and I had an absolute blast for the rest of the night.</p>
<p>I was extremely thankful for that player. At least at my game store, once people are in a pod, they're in that pod for the whole night. So if I had left this table, where it was extremely clear that I did not own a deck which could put a scratch into any of these other decks, I would've had nowhere to go.</p>
<p>He recognized my ordeal and solved it for me through familiarity with the scene, a confidence earned from a long time playing Commander, and relationships to the other players at the store - all things that, as a new player, I simply did not have and could not have used to get myself out of my situation.</p>
<p>I'll forever be grateful for that player, and when I see him, I remember how important he was for my continued presence in this hobby.</p>
<h2>Move 2: Playing a Commander With a Clear Play Pattern</h2>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="The Lord of Pain"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Nelly Borca, Impulsive Accuser"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Ms. Bumbleflower"></div></div>
<p>One of my first times out with my signature <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="The Jolly Balloon Man" href="#" target="_blank">The Jolly Balloon Man</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> deck, I found myself in a three-person pod. I was still getting that deck up on its feet at that point, but it was starting to come together.</p>
<p>However, in this game, another player was running a mono-white Angels deck. That deck ran like a dream, and even <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx" href="#" target="_blank">the lands</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> sometimes took me a couple of readthroughs to understand.</p>
<p>While I wasn't as clearly outmatched in this game as in the one I described earlier, it was clear to that player that I, Roman, was having trouble following along with some of the other mechanics and interactions at the table. So for our next round, he pulled out a new deck led by <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="The Lord of Pain" href="#" target="_blank">The Lord of Pain</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>.</p>
<p>I can already hear your responses through my computer screen, and yes, The Lord of Pain is a mean commander and often leads a nasty deck. But do you know what else The Lord of Pain is? An extremely easy to understand card.</p>
<p>As soon as I read that text, I immediately understood not only what I could expect to see from this deck, but also the things I would need to do in order to play around its effects. It presented a fun challenge for me as a player at the table. It didn't combo off, it didn't activate some synergy to produce endless Treasure tokens, it just did exactly what it said it would do.</p>
<p>And I had a blast playing against it!</p>
<p>I felt so involved and engaged as a player in this game. At this point I'd seen combo decks and graveyard recursion decks and all sorts of things where I basically just had to wait out a player's turn and ask if I was dead yet at the end of it. It was so refreshing to have a clear effect to play around, and due to its triggering on each player's turn, even made me pay closer attention during the other player's turn.</p>
<p>I've done some board game design in my life, and one guiding principle in that space is that each player's turn should be interesting to all of the other players at the table. If you've designed a game where players will take out their phone and check out between their turns, then you've designed a bad game.</p>
<p>Durdly decks in Commander (decks that involve a lot of comboing triggers and effects during a player's turn that only affect their own board) are, in this way, bad game design. Of course, as a veteran player, they're more trivial to track and you'll see the hidden points of potential interaction within them. But for newer players, they fall very firmly into the realm of bad game design.</p>
<p>For this reason, I implore you to survey your own collection. Most players I know keep a precon in their bag to run with newer players. But please take a moment to consider your new player precon.</p>
<p>For example, I do have a copy of the <a href="https://edhrec.com/precon/temur-roar" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><em>Temur Roar</em> precon from <em>Tarkir: Dragonstorm</em></a> in my bag. That deck, in addition to being stronger than many of my constructed decks, is extremely durdly. I would never pull it out to play against a new player.</p>
<p>However, my slightly upgraded <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Nelly Borca, Impulsive Accuser" href="#" target="_blank">Nelly Borca, Impulsive Accuser</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> precon works great for newer players (especially once I removed <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Trouble in Pairs" href="#" target="_blank">Trouble in Pairs</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>). It's pretty clear early on that I'm looking to attack on my turn and make other players have to attack each other on theirs, while offering free card draw as they do. It's usually fairly obvious what's going to happen on my turn, and it gives the other players in the pod things to look out for on their opponents' turns (after all, there's only two options for those goaded creatures to attack, and one of the two is them).</p>
<p>See what precon or precon-level deck you have that could do the same. Though she often gets built in ways that turn her into an intercontinental ballistic missile, <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Ms. Bumbleflower" href="#" target="_blank">Ms. Bumbleflower</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> is a great precon commander for providing a clear play pattern for newer players. <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Brion Stoutarm" href="#" target="_blank">Brion Stoutarm</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>'s MO is almost made clear just in reading his name.</p>
<p>These are exactly the sort of Commanders that help a new player become comfortable with the ebbs and flows of a Commander game.</p>
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