Nahiri, Forged in Fury | Art by Marta Nael

More Math

Hot on the heels of our last Over/Under, we're back with another article, this time with planeswalkers. Well, former planeswalkers.

In this series, I predict how popular new commanders will become using a line of 1200. "Over" means I think they'll lead more than 1200 decks one year after their release, and "Under" means the opposite. I also do one Can't-Miss Pick each set, which is my most confident selection (that, or I'm trying to prove a point). For March of the Machine: The Aftermath, I took screenshots of each commander on the set's one-year anniversary, so those are the numbers I'll be citing.

You'll find last year's prediction article here, though no need to re-read the entire thing; I'll be quoting pertinent info throughout. Now let's get to the set!

Overall Impressions

This set was a failure.

I know I might be coming in a little hot there, but just remember, the "Big Score" cards from Outlaws of Thunder Junction were supposed to be their own micro set modeled after this one, yet Aftermath's dismal performance cancelled those plans. When your set kills its own planned sequel, I'd say that qualifies as a failure.

Paradoxically, however, it still performed fairly well among commander players. Just check out these numbers:

Though that average isn't as high as that of its sister set (March of the Machine averaged 2749 per commander), it's pretty darn close. It even came just short of beating the average of the set before, Phyrexia: All Will Be One, which averaged 2164 per commander.

So why the disconnect? How did a set so popular with commander players still perform poorly enough to destroy a subsequent set? As things so often do, I think it came down to money. If you missed it, MOM: Aftermath packs contained only five cards, yet retailed for the same price as regular packs. Hard to blame players for being irked by that.

From a design and development perspective, Aftermath is difficult to comment on, since it lacks the cohesion of a usual set. This is another knock against it. Honestly, the conceit of the micro set feels like Wizards trying to sell a handful of cards directly to players without relying on Secret Lair. It didn't work, and I'm glad they recognized that.

Still, the set wasn't a complete zero. As the numbers imply, pretty much all of our 21 commanders are interesting. All are returning characters, yet most are recontextualized by morphing from planeswalker to creature. This is the first time players can have Kiora as their commander, for example, and that newfound freedom bears out in the results.

How much of this did I successfully predict? Let's dig into the results.

My Solid Selections

I like to begin these reviews with my triumphs, just to set you up for surprises when I reveal my mistakes. In the spirit of that sentiment, let's begin with my most triumphant triumph.

Last year's prediction: Can't Miss Pick

Final deck count: 6,918

I'll be honest...this isn't that much of a triumph. I mean, an anthropomorphic paper bag could've told you this commander would become popular. Here's how I framed it last year:

"My question isn't 'will this card go Over?', but rather 'by how much?' Narset is incredibly powerful, especially when combined with token-makers like Monastery Mentor and Young Pyromancer. The current king of Jeskai is Kykar, Wind's Fury with 7,551 decks. I think we may have a queen by this time next year."

Kykar is still the king, but Narset is third on that list and gaining fast. Should only continue to surge in popularity.

Speaking of surging, how about our next commander?

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 4,758

Rocco's food truck business is surging in popularity, as I predicted it would. Yet I didn't have all nice things to say about them...

"Rocco, Street Chef is basically Phelddagrif with a culinary degree. Each turn, you give your opponents free spells in exchange for...a measly counter and a measlier Food token?"

No, I do not like Group Hug. In my experience, decks of that ilk simply prolong games that should've ended hours ago, sort of like pre-pitch-clock-era baseball. However, I concluded my analysis with a concession...

"Yet still, as a professional EDHREC prognosticator, I'll have to suppress my distaste [for Group Hug decks]. EDH players like these effects, for some reason, and the flavor here is admittedly tasty."

Even an old salt like me can appreciate how well Rocco synergizes with Plot, the signature mechanic of OTJ. Granted, nobody knew Plot was coming, but it's certainly helped our guy here become the Guy Fieri of New Capenna.

For a bit of a shift, let's examine an Over that didn't go quite as far over as I expected.

My prediction: Over

Final deck count: 1,523

Niv hurdled the bar by 323 decks, yet still, for a five-color fan-favorite, that's a pretty poor showing. Still, this was the fifth incarnation of Niv-Mizzet, plus we got a sixth a few months ago in Murders at Karlov Manor. My working theory is this: Players are suffering from Niv-Mizzet fatigue, better known as Nivtigue. When the seventh Niv comes around, I'll have to keep that in mind.

Let's go from a commander with all the colors to a commander with none of 'em.

Karn, Legacy Reforged

My prediction: Over

Final deck count: 2,708

I'm always reluctant to go Over on colorless commanders, and last year, I summarized why.

"The biggest hurdle is going to be mana; since [Karn is] a colorless commander, one can only play Wastes and non-color producing lands."

That precludes staples like the Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty Channel lands or many self-animating lands. Plus, Wastes are harder to find than, say, Islands, since they've only ever appeared in Oath of the Gatewatch. More should be in circulation after the upcoming Modern Horizons 3 drops, but it's still not trivial to accumulate enough.

For the last of my correct called shots, let's check out an Under.

My prediction: Under

Final deck count: 900

I highlight this one because I'm actually surprised it did as well as it did. Nine hundred is a lot of decks, after all, especially for a mythic commander from a weirdo booster release that allegedly didn't sell well. Last year I wrote...

"When has haste support ever been popular? Not often—and I don't think it's going to start here. Samut's too small to be a threat on her own, and relying on combat damage to draw cards is unreliable at best."

To be clear, I wasn't implying there aren't enough creatures with haste. There are tons. It's an evergreen mechanic that's been around since Alpha. I just mean that few cards have ever cared about a creature having haste, and even adding one doesn't make the ability all that much better. Haste is solid, but by its very nature, it only matters the turn the creature enters the battlefield.

Now for the part that hurts my self-esteem...

My Big Mistakes

As Michael Scott once said, you miss 100% of the shots you don't take. However, what he didn't mention was that you miss some of the shots you do take, too. Sometimes horribly. By a lot. On the internet. If you don't believe me, believe this:

My prediction: Over

Final deck count: 1,010

I'm still shocked by the Under. I described Nissa as "Lotus Cobra from the command zone," and the 1010 players who built her deck agreed; Lotus Cobra itself is the third High Synergy card on her page. I also noted her "[support for] Elves or Elementals," both of which are popular types. You can even see her powerful synergy with any variety of fetch land, since pretty much all the eligible versions appear in her average deck.

The only reason I can surmise for this card underperforming is cost. At her highest, Nissa was worth almost $50, and even a year later, she's at $35. I wouldn't say that's prohibitively expensive compared to some commanders...but maybe that's it? Any way you look at it, Nissa's relative obscurity is surprising.

This next commander was another surprise, only in the opposite way.

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 1,820

My main gripe with Pia wasn't power. It was simply that, unlike pretty much every other commander these days, she doesn't fuel her own payoff. Prosper, Tome-Bound is the perfect example of what I'm getting at; not only does he reward you for casting cards from exile—he puts them in there for you. I was expecting Pia to have Prosper's Mystic Arcanum text, or something similar. Yet evidently, she's powerful enough without it. Red offers numerous ways to cast cards from exile, and white offers, ya know, artifact stuff.

The lesson for next time? I need to evaluate cards as they are, not what I wish they were. (I have a similar philosophy for my homemade crockpot soup, which frequently comes out disappointing.)

Speaking of disappointing, I was disappointed by my own prediction with this next card.

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 1,392

Last year's criticism was admittedly reductive, and it started out on a mean-spirited note:

"Animating lands is like playing for the Washington Commanders—players just don't want to do it."

Mean-spirited, yes, but also not entirely untrue. Anyway, the Commanders will probably surpass my New York Giants this season, so Washington fans will have the last laugh (assuming they exist). Now back to Magic...

"The highest-ranking Simic commander of this ilk is Tatyova, Steward of Tides, and she only leads 863 decks. I fail to see why Jolrael will do any better."

What I failed to see is Jolrael's Ophidian effect for lands, which works on any of 'em, not just the ones she animates. That means cards like Sylvan Awakening and Embodiment of Insight get way better, along with self-animating lands like Restless Vinestalk and Faerie Conclave. Probably should've noticed that sooner.

And then I smelled a rat...

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 1,038

Gandalf's love for the halflings' leaf clearly slowed his mind, and my love of rats did the same with Nashi. I suggested "casting token copies of Relentless Rats from your graveyard, then Populating them," but judging by his commander page, nobody took my advice. In fact, players seemed to lean way more into the Legendary thing, which seems silly to me. When you have a choice between legendary heroes of yore and vermin, the choice is clear.

Speaking of legendary heroes of yore...

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 1,341

I didn't have any completely heinous picks for this set, a la calling an Under on Shalai and Hallar. Tazri was as close as I got, simply because my own hubris got the best of me. Here's last year's analysis in its entirety:

"Magic cards have had clunky phrasing of late, yet this might be the clunkiest. You can tap to add mana, but only to pay for other creatures' activated abilities, and only if the tapped creature has an activated ability of its own, with the blanket exception of mana abilities? This card is harder to grok than Takklemaggot. And even when you do finally understand it, it's not even that powerful.

I think I should do it. I want to do it. You know what? I'm going to do it.

My prediction: Under"

Props to anybody who remembers Takklemaggot.

It's never good when you identify a pattern that's never been broken, then suddenly predict it's going to break. Kind of like my Giants starting Daniel Jones at quarterback and saying, "Yes, but this time it's going to work!"

Well, it won't work for the Giants, and it didn't work for me. I got the pick wrong, and now my percentage has to suffer for it. Here's promising I'll never pick against a five-color commander again. Also, I'll try to cut back on the football analogies.

Recap

Correct Picks (16)

Arni Metalbrow - Under (132 decks)
Plargg and Nassari - Under (660 decks)
Samut, Vizier of Naktamun - Under (900 decks)
Danitha, New Benalia's Light - Under (296 decks)
Jirina, Dauntless General - Under (85 decks)
Sarkhan, Soul Aflame - Under (842 decks)
Ob Nixilis, Captive Kingpin - Over (5,586 decks)
Calix, Guided by Fate - Over (1,959 decks)
Sigarda, Font of Blessings - Over (2,415 decks)
Tyvar the Bellicose - Over (1,801 decks)
Nahiri, Forged in Fury - Over (4,594 decks)
Kiora, Sovereign of the Deep - Over (2,924 decks)
Rocco, Street Chef - Over (4,758 decks)
Narset, Enlightened Exile - Over/Can't Miss Pick! (6,918 decks)
Niv-Mizzet, Supreme - Over (1,523 decks)
Karn, Legacy Reforged - Over (2,708 decks)

Incorrect Picks (5)

Pia Nalaar, Consul of Revival - ~~Under~~ Over (1,820 decks)
Jolrael, Voice of Zhalfir - ~~Under~~ Over (1,392 decks)
Tazri, Stalwart Survivor - ~~Under~~ Over (1,341 decks)
Nissa, Resurgent Animist - ~~Over~~ Under (1,010 decks)
Nashi, Moon's Legacy - ~~Over~~ Under (1,038 decks)

My March of the Machine: The Aftermath Correct Prediction Percentage: 76%

My Overall Correct Prediction Percentage: 75%

Better than my last round of selections, but overall, unimpressive. This set was difficult to predict, since it was an unprecedented product, and evidently, we'll never see its like again. Here's to bigger boosters!

Read more:

The Over/Under - A Review of March of the Machine Commanders

Singleton Shmingleton - Build a Theft Deck with Mind Rot

jirina dauntless general

The Over/Under - A Review of March of the Machine: The Aftermath Commanders

The Over/Under - Predicting the Popularity of March of the Machine: The Aftermath Commanders