(Sigarda, Font of Blessings | Art by Justyna Dura)

The Mother of All Aftermaths

Welcome to the machine. Again.

We're back for another Over/Under, the article series where we make frivolous guesswork about a new commander's popularity. As the series title suggests, each commander gets an "Over" or "Under" grade based on a line of 1,200 decks. One year from release, we review our guesses to see where we succeeded—and, more funnily, where we failed. There's also one Can't-Miss Pick, which is our lock of the set.

Ready? Let's get predicting.

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Arni Metalbrow

This is a lot of text for an underwhelming ability. What's worse, if you're not cheating out something that costs more than two mana, you're not benefitting from Arni. Sure, you can rely on high mana-value enablers like Molten Monstrosity or Affinity creatures. But don't forget—this guy has not one, but two horns stuck in his head. Homer Simpson had just a single crayon in his brain, and look how he turned out.

My prediction: Under

Plargg and Nassari

Which is the teacher and which is the TA, I wonder?

Whatever the answer, I think I'll drop this course. To get any value whatsoever, you'll spend five mana and hope Plargg and Nassari survive a full turn cycle. Assuming they do and you have four opponents, you'll cast the second and third-best spells from everyone's decks for free. That'll usually be good—but sometimes you'll hit a counterspell and a board wipe you don't want to cast. Plus, if you like this effect, you're probably playing Etali, Primal Storm or Etali, Primal Conqueror, anyway.

My prediction: Under

Nissa, Resurgent Animist

Oh phew, Nissa's no longer an eight-foot-tall tentacled Phyrexian freak (see Traumatic Revelation). Now she's Lotus Cobra from the Command Zone who supports Elves or Elementals. This is a better comeback than Robert Downey, Jr. in 2008.

My prediction: Over

Ob Nixilis, Captive Kingpin

What an oddly specific trigger condition. Not that it's hard to do; from Spear Spewer to Blood Artist to any ol' one-power creature, Ob-Nix is going to rival Prosper, Tome-Bound as a value commander in Rakdos.

The only downside: This is not the sort of commander you can play if you're only half-paying attention to the game. He even triggers on your opponent's turns when they crack fetch lands! Turn off the TV and mute the music, pal. You've got to focus!

My prediction: Over

Samut, Vizier of Naktamun

Let me ask you something. When has haste support ever been popular? Not often—and I don't think it's going to start here. Samut's too small to be a threat on her own, and relying on combat damage to draw cards is unreliable at best. Still, glad to see she ran for office (and won).

My prediction: Under

Calix, Guided by Fate

I'll be honest, I kinda forgot about Calix until now. The last time we saw him was in Theros: Beyond Death, which feels like ten years ago (it's been three).

He's clearly been hitting the gym in those three years. I mean, this card is super strong. Free counters per enchantment is nasty, and those counters help Calix (or another enchanted creature) get buff enough to deal combat damage, which gives you more enchantments, which gives you more counters. An excellent addition to an evergreen archetype.

My prediction: Over

Danitha, New Benalia's Light

If Danitha was, say, Golgari, I'd be much more interested. As it stands, self-mill and graveyard strategies in Selesnya are fairly limited. Commanders like this are best when you turn your graveyard into a second hand, and I just don't see her doing that successfully.

My prediction: Under

Sigarda, Font of Blessings

My favorite font is Comic Sans—but I suppose Sigarda, Font of Blessings will do. The ol' cast-stuff-from-atop-the-deck strat always proves popular, and I see no reason to doubt it here. For four mana, you get a relevant attacker, coverage against targeted removal, and a legit card advantage engine. What's not to love?

My prediction: Over

Jirina, Dauntless General

This iteration of Jirina is as laughably incompetent as General Grievous. Exiling a player's graveyard is good, but you'd rather have that effect on your Bojuka Bog than your commander. And though sacrificing oneself for the team is heroic, it's also situational at best. I feel daunted.

My prediction: Under

Sarkhan, Soul Aflame

In this image, Sarkhan looks like he's singing "The Sound of Music." And hey, good for him. He's eschewed the burden of being a planeswalker, he's added a color, and he brings Dragon support to Izzet, instead of yet another spellslinger.

Still, I can't say I'm super impressed (by his card, not by his singing voice—that's heavenly). The cost reduction is fine, but The Ur-Dragon provides the same value for literally no mana investment. And while the copying effect is nice, it's effectively just granting haste and/or doubling EtB effects. All good, but not enough to really set my soul aflame.

My prediction: Under

Tyvar the Bellicose

He can't go infinite with Devoted Druid. That's the only nice thing I have to say about Tyvar here.

I find Elf decks super annoying, and now that they've become bellicose, things have only gotten worse. I can just imagine my opponents uttering: "Tap my Marwyn, the Nurturer for 50, add another 50 counters, activate my Wirewood Symbiote, untap my Marwyn, add another 100 mana, dump my hand on the board..."

You get the idea. By now I've scooped and excused myself to the bathroom, where I'm silently sobbing. I doubt Tyvar will unseat Lathril, Blade of the Elves as the premier Elven commander—but it'll still do pretty darn well.

My prediction: Bellicose—I mean, Over

Nahiri, Forged in Fury

Gen Z Magic players don't remember the days when the best card draw we could find in Boros was Munda, Ambush Leader. Now we get Nahiri, Forged in Fury, a commander so good she makes Bone Saw playable. She gets even better with any of the For Mirrodin! stuff from Phyrexia, along with any additional Equipment support. Easy grade here.

My prediction: Over

Pia Nalaar, Consul of Revival

Sentences like "Thopters you control have haste" are the reason why non-Magic players think we're speaking a different language. Yet if you're fluent, you know that's a pretty powerful statement, especially with cards like Thopter Assembly.

The next sentence, though? I'm less jazzed about it. With modern card designs, I'm so used to these effects being followed up with a way to exile cards. Since Pia doesn't provide it, you'll need to lean on the rest of your deck to take full advantage. It can work, but since she offers so little value on her own, I think her popularity will suffer.

My prediction: Under

Jolrael, Voice of Zhalfir

Animating lands is like playing for the Washington Commanders—players just don't want to do it. The highest-ranking Simic commander of this ilk is Tatyova, Steward of Tides, and she only leads 863 decks. I fail to see why Jolrael will do any better.

My prediction: Under

Kiora, Sovereign of the Deep

No spark, no problem. Kiora grants pseudo-Cascade to her four favorite creature types, a recipe proven to be popular by the likes of Imoti, Celebrant of Bounty and Kenessos, Priest of Thassa (2601 and 2032 decks, respectively). The water in her artwork looks a little shallow, but otherwise, I've got no concerns about this commander.

My prediction: Over

Rocco, Street Chef

Longtime readers of this series will know of my aversion to the Group Hug archetype. For example, the moment I discovered Phelddagrif in a Gatherer search, I turned off my computer in disgust. What a waste of a perfectly good winged hippo.

Rocco, Street Chef is basically Phelddagrif with a culinary degree. Each turn, you give your opponents free spells in exchange for...a measly counter and a measlier Food token?

See, this is why I don't get Group Hug. I don't want to see my opponents prosper—I want to see them suffer. Yet still, as a professional EDHREC prognosticator, I'll have to suppress my distaste. EDH players like these effects, for some reason, and the flavor here is admittedly tasty.

My prediction: Over

Narset, Enlightened Exile

An exile who exiles stuff? I see you, Wizards.

My question isn't "will this card go Over?", but rather "by how much?" Narset is incredibly powerful, especially when combined with token-makers like Monastery Mentor and Young Pyromancer. The current king of Jeskai is Kykar, Wind's Fury with 7551 decks. I think we may have a queen by this time next year.

My prediction: Over (Can't Miss Pick!)

Nashi, Moon's Legacy

I did not notice Tamiyo peeking over this guy's shoulder until about five minutes ago, at which point I audibly yelped. Your opponents might be yelping, too, especially when you're casting token copies of Relentless Rats from your graveyard, then Populating them. I'm not saying that's all you can do with Nashi—I'm just saying that's what you should be doing.

At any rate, Sultai commanders rarely go Under. And even though Nashi has a ghost riding on his back like he's Hodor and Tamiyo is Bran, it shouldn't affect this rat's popularity.

My prediction: Over

Niv-Mizzet, Supreme

They forgot the word "Crunchwrap" before "Supreme," but otherwise, this card is sweet. A five color commander has yet to go Under in this series, and I doubt the fifth (fifth!) version of a fan-favorite will be the first.

My prediction: Over

Tazri, Stalwart Survivor

Just as I finish praising five color commanders, we get to Tazri. Magic cards have had clunky phrasing of late, yet this might be the clunkiest. You can tap to add mana, but only to pay for other creatures' activated abilities, and only if the tapped creature has an activated ability of its own, with the blanket exception of mana abilities? This card is harder to grok than Takklemaggot. And even when you do finally understand it, it's not even that powerful.

I think I should do it. I want to do it. You know what? I'm going to do it.

My prediction: Under

Karn, Legacy Reforged

Is Karn basically the original AI of MtG? If so, did he write essays for lazy Tolarian students? If so, can we be sure he didn't write this very article? Come on Karn GPT, you're getting off topic...

This commander is obviously powerful. The biggest hurdle is going to be mana; since he's a colorless commander, one can only play Wastes and non-color producing lands. According to EDHREC's colorless commander page, Kozilek, the Great Distortion leads the way with a healthy 5,829 decks, followed by a sharp drop off to the rest. Karn's original creature card, Karn, Silver Golem, just barely clears the mark at 1,257 decks, (though that version has been around for decades).

All this is to say that it'll be close, but I believe in Karn, even though he'll be taking my job soon. Or has it happened already?

My prediction: Over

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Recap

Over (11)

• Nissa, Resurgent Animist
• Ob Nixilis, Captive Kingpin
• Calix, Guided by Fate
• Sigarda, Font of Blessings
• Tyvar the Bellicose
• Nahiri, Forged in Fury
• Kiora, Sovereign of the Deep
• Rocco, Street Chef
• Nashi, Moon's Legacy
• Niv-Mizzet, Supreme
• Karn, Legacy Reforged

Under (9)

• Arni Metalbrow
• Plargg and Nassari
• Samut, Vizier of Naktamun
• Danitha, New Benalia's Light
• Jirina, Dauntless General
• Sarkhan, Soul Aflame
• Pia Nalaar, Consul of Revival
• Jolrael, Voice of Zhalfir
• Tazri, Stalwart Survivor

Can't-Miss Pick

• Narset, Enlightened Exile

No planeswalkers in this set, eh? I'm sure there's a perfectly innocent explanation for that. Please excuse me while I go study the lore. And hey, thanks for reading!