Too-Specific Top 10 - Great Ability

<h6 style="text-align: right;">(<a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Doomsday" href="#" target="_blank">Doomsday</a> | Art by <a href="https://mtg.wtf/artist/adrian_smith">Adrian Smith</a>)</h6>
<h1>Doomsday's Doomsday?</h1>
Welcome to another installment of Reconstruct History, where we examine popularity trends of cards and archetypes over time.
This installment was recommended by reader Stephen Bahl months back when I asked the community about cards they'd like to see. This time, we'll be heading for the end times. Not the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_(DC_Comics)">apocalyptic aberration that gave Superman a temporary glimpse of afterlife</a>, nor the Bulletin of Atomic Scientist's <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock">catastrophic clock</a> that attempts to predict humankind's self-destruction. Nope, we're looking at the classic combo enabler: <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Doomsday" href="#" target="_blank">Doomsday</a>.
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Doomsday"></div></div>
Outside of your occasional Four Horseman of the Apocalypse eschatologically-themed (not ex-Legacy deck!) EDH deck, <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Doomsday" href="#" target="_blank">Doomsday</a> is often included for its combo potential. First printed in Weatherlight (1997), <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Doomsday" href="#" target="_blank">Doomsday</a> has had a long history of enabling wild combos and synergies, whether that's playing a shell game with <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Shelldock Isle" href="#" target="_blank">Shelldock Isle</a> and <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Emrakul, the Aeon&#039;s Torn" href="#" target="_blank">Emrakul, the Aeon&#039;s Torn</a>, or the ol' <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Tendrils of Agony" href="#" target="_blank">Tendrils of Agony</a> Storm combo enabled by <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Lion&#039;s Eye Diamond" href="#" target="_blank">Lion&#039;s Eye Diamond</a>s and <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Sensei&#039;s Divining Top" href="#" target="_blank">Sensei&#039;s Divining Top</a>. There just aren't many cards out there that singlehandedly require <a href="https://sites.google.com/site/emidln/doomsdaystacks">entire sites</a> dedicating thousands of words to explaining just how you can set up a win. <a href="https://www.commanderspellbook.com/search/?q=doomsday">The Commander Spellbook page</a> also has a number of entries, showing just how diverse <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Doomsday" href="#" target="_blank">Doomsday</a> can be for enabling a win.
It's the kind of card you have to build around, and in the words of Louis Scott Vargas <a href="https://strategy.channelfireball.com/all-strategy/home/deck-highlight-legacy-doomsday/">explaining a Legacy Doomsday deck</a>, you:
<blockquote>"Cast <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Doomsday" href="#" target="_blank">Doomsday</a>...or die trying...There's no backup plan, no alternate win conditions, nothing. In the game of <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Doomsday" href="#" target="_blank">Doomsday</a>, you win or you die."</blockquote>
How fitting for a card that invokes the end times. So what about EDH? <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Doomsday" href="#" target="_blank">Doomsday</a> has long graced the halls of cEDH canon, but where does it stand nowadays?
<hr />
<h2>Criteria</h2>
Our criteria are as follows:
<ol>
<li>Metric: Rank (out of possible black cards)</li>
<li>Threshold: Must be at present at least once in the top 400 ranked black cards</li>
<li>Effect: ‘Draw’ one or more cards in exchange for life</li>
<li>Timeframe: Last two years (April/May 2019 – April/May 2021). I know it’s now August, but at time of writing, this is where we scraped!</li>
<li>Breaks: Monthly intervals</li>
</ol>
As is tradition, we’re focusing on rank rather than the number of decks (i.e., decklists), as this helps account for fluctuations in decklists scraped in any given timeframe, which helps us compare the results to other colorless cards. Remember that the lower the rank (closer to 1), the more popular a card is!
<hr />
<h2>Results</h2>
The results for <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Doomsday" href="#" target="_blank">Doomsday</a> can be seen here:
<a href="https://edhrecstatic.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Rank-Score-of-Doomsday-e1630951156599.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter wp-image-70309 size-full" src="https://edhrecstatic.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Rank-Score-of-Doomsday-e1630951156599.png" alt="" width="650" height="520" /></a>
Well, it appears <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Doomsday" href="#" target="_blank">Doomsday</a> has been trending downwards for the last couple of years. In fact, as of March 2021, it's completely fallen off our scrape threshold for this series, no longer in the top 400 black cards.
Notably, <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Doomsday" href="#" target="_blank">Doomsday</a> still features prominently in a number of higher-powered decks. In <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Grenzo, Dungeon Warden" href="#" target="_blank">Grenzo, Dungeon Warden</a>, it still enables fascinating combos with the bottom of your now five-card library, while <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Yuriko, the Tiger&#039;s Shadow" href="#" target="_blank">Yuriko, the Tiger&#039;s Shadow</a> can start flipping cards off the top after getting in with Ninjas. As for <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="K&#039;rrik, Son of Yawgmoth" href="#" target="_blank">K&#039;rrik, Son of Yawgmoth</a>, turns out you can just cast it for six life rather than any mana. Plus, you're going to lose half of your life anyways — what's a little more? K'rrik can help circumvent some of the need for mana and rituals by just using life instead, which makes it a great home for <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Doomsday" href="#" target="_blank">Doomsday</a> fans.
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Grenzo, Dungeon Warden"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Yuriko, the Tiger&#039;s Shadow"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="K&#039;rrik, Son of Yawgmoth"></div></div>
Finally, one of the things we can look at is the popularity organized into bins, making sure we don’t double count any previous categories (i.e., not counting top 100 again in the top 150).
Black rank score of <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Doomsday" href="#" target="_blank">Doomsday</a> over last two years (May 2019 - May 2021):
<ul>
<li>Top 50: 0 times (0%)</li>
<li>Top 100: 0 times (0%)</li>
<li>Top 150: 0 times (0%)</li>
<li>Top 200: 1 time (5%)</li>
<li>Top 250: 4 times (18%)</li>
<li>Top 300: 9 times (41%)</li>
<li>Top 350: 4 times (18%)</li>
<li>Top 400: 4 times (18%)</li>
</ul>
The shift is slowly towards the lower end, and I for one am curious to see if <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Doomsday" href="#" target="_blank">Doomsday</a> ends up seeing a resurgence in a few years time.
<hr />
<h2>Time to Reflect</h2>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Time to Reflect"></div></div>
It's now <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Time to Reflect" href="#" target="_blank">Time to Reflect</a> and <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Reconstruct History" href="#" target="_blank">Reconstruct some history</a>!
<hr />
<h3>Price</h3>
For the most part, <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Doomsday" href="#" target="_blank">Doomsday</a> has been a fairly price-accessible card, <a href="https://www.mtgstocks.com/prints/14390-doomsday">hovering below $5</a>. Only in March 2020 did it see a significant spike, nearly cresting $20, and it has remained in the ~$15 range ever since. <a href="https://www.mtgstocks.com/news/343-weekly-winners-2020-10">That spike</a>, as it happens, came shortly after the printing of a particular card: <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Thassa&#039;s Oracle" href="#" target="_blank">Thassa&#039;s Oracle</a> (Theros: Beyond Death, released January 24, 2020).
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Thassa&#039;s Oracle"></div></div>
No surprise that in both EDH and even Legacy, decks were elated to have their <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Doomsday" href="#" target="_blank">Doomsday</a> piles buffed with a less-conditional, harder-to-interact-with <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Laboratory Maniac" href="#" target="_blank">Laboratory Maniac</a>. With the Oracle, you don't have to draw an extra card as you would with <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Laboratory Maniac" href="#" target="_blank">Laboratory Maniac</a> or <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Jace, Wielder of Mysteries" href="#" target="_blank">Jace, Wielder of Mysteries</a>, which can be a big ask when your operating on such slim margins after <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Doomsday" href="#" target="_blank">Doomsday</a> cuts your life total in half, your library down to five, and your paths to victory to a knife's edge.
But <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Doomsday" href="#" target="_blank">Doomsday</a> wasn't the only card impacted by the printing of <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Thassa&#039;s Oracle" href="#" target="_blank">the fish with foresight</a>. In fact, I think a lot of <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Doomsday" href="#" target="_blank">Doomsday</a>'s decline in popularity seen above can be explained by its competitors.
<hr />
<h3>Competition for Calamity</h3>
What happens when the proverbial end times don't come as foreseen? Well, we've seen it before. Whether it's the 'Zorpies' changing the date in Parks in Recreation, or a bunch of Westerners in real life misinterpreting Mayan calendrics, many a sun has set on a <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Doomsday" href="#" target="_blank">Doomsday</a> only to have been followed by an <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Approach of the Second Sun" href="#" target="_blank">Approach of the Second Sun</a>.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://i.redd.it/9wtsexws9ld61.jpg" alt="What Qanon reminds me of...: PandR" width="348" height="186" />
As it turns out, <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Doomsday" href="#" target="_blank">Doomsday</a> isn't the only black card with the potential to shrink one's library to a pile poised to win. I think two other cards are worth analyzing here to help contextualize <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Doomsday" href="#" target="_blank">Doomsday</a>'s decline: <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Tainted Pact" href="#" target="_blank">Tainted Pact</a> and <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Demonic Consultation" href="#" target="_blank">Demonic Consultation</a>.
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Tainted Pact"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Demonic Consultation"></div></div>
In one form or another, both of these cards will rip through your library, either by virtue of the singleton format in the case of <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Tainted Pact" href="#" target="_blank">Tainted Pact</a>, or simply naming a card knowingly not included in your deck in the case of <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Demonic Consultation" href="#" target="_blank">Demonic Consultation</a>. Since they're other combo-enablers in black, I thought it would be good to get their data as well.
Here are the results below. Feel free to scroll to see the cards individually and compared to one another on the same plot.
<blockquote class="imgur-embed-pub" lang="en" data-id="a/LipE5oV"><a href="https://imgur.com/a/LipE5oV">Rank score of black combo enablers over last two years (May 2019 - May 2021)</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//s.imgur.com/min/embed.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Well, how about that! There is a pretty strong inverse relationship between <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Doomsday" href="#" target="_blank">Doomsday</a> and these two enablers.
The case for these two options over <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Doomsday" href="#" target="_blank">Doomsday</a> may vary, either by their lesser mana value, less fragility, or even time. <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Doomsday" href="#" target="_blank">Doomsday</a> piles are notoriously time-consuming to sort out, given the sheer complexity and contingencies when faced with cards already draw, in hand, played, in the graveyard, etc. If people want something more 'compact,' they may be incentivized to try one of these other two options over <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Doomsday" href="#" target="_blank">Doomsday</a>.
<hr />
<h2>Not All Doom and Gloom</h2>
Despite the trend downwards (and perhaps despite its subtle phasing out as cards like <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Tainted Pact" href="#" target="_blank">Tainted Pact</a> and <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Demonic Consultation" href="#" target="_blank">Demonic Consultation</a> become ever more popular) <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Doomsday" href="#" target="_blank">Doomsday</a> will always have a spot in some players' hearts. It's notoriously build-around, skill-demanding, and it embodies the old-school black notion of great power at great cost(s).
Heck, there're quite a few commanders out there that have been printed recently that may take advantage of <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Doomsday" href="#" target="_blank">Doomsday</a>, like <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Prosper, Tome Bound" href="#" target="_blank">Prosper, Tome Bound</a> to help mitigate the mana, <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Blex, Vexing Pest" href="#" target="_blank">Blex, Vexing Pest</a> (or, really, <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Search for Blex" href="#" target="_blank">Search for Blex</a>) to filter your 'entire library,' and maybe even <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Firja, Judge of Valor" href="#" target="_blank">Firja, Judge of Valor</a> to <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Ransack the Lab" href="#" target="_blank">Ransack the Lab</a> down to your requisite pieces.
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Prosper, Tome Bound"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Blex, Vexing Pest"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Firja, Judge of Valor"></div></div>
What about you? Have you ever run <a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Doomsday" href="#" target="_blank">Doomsday</a>? Do you still? What decks do you run it in? What about the times where it flopped? Sign off in the comments below!
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Once again, shoutout to Nate Burgess (<a href="https://twitter.com/MisterPlorg">@MisterPlorg</a>) for all the data scraping help!

emrakul the aeons torn

Too-Specific Top 10 - Great Ability

Reconstruct History — Doomsday

Too-Specific Top 10 - Extra, Extra!