Too-Specific Top 10 - (Last) Year in Review

<h1>Block is for Mathers</h1>
<p>Welcome to <em>Superior Numbers,</em> where I try to do numerical analysis on cards and deckbuilding trends using a little bit of math.</p>
<p><span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Ravenform" href="#" target="_blank">Ravenform</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>. It's a neat little efficient bit of removal from <em>Kaldheim</em> that can exile an artifact or creature for 2U, either all at once or spread over multiple turns using the <em>Foretell</em> keyword. Sure, it leaves behind a 1/1 blue Bird creature token with flying, and it's limited to times when you can cast a sorcery, but it's still a pretty decent card.</p>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Ravenform"></div></div>
<p>And it's also not playable most of the time.</p>
<p>Why? Because there are finite slots in EDH decks, and <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Ravenform" href="#" target="_blank">Ravenform</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> is generally muscled out by other cards that do the same thing, but better. That's what I want to talk about here: cards that are, on their surface, quite good, but often can't find a slot because enough other better things exist that edge them out of the 99.</p>
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<h2>"The Only Qualifications for Being a Lineman Are to Be Big and Dumb"</h2>
<p>Now, obviously there are extenuating circumstances and caveats here. Just because cards might bump something like <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Ravenform" href="#" target="_blank">Ravenform</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> out of a deck in the abstract doesn't mean they do so in reality. Price, for example, is an issue than can roadblock folks. Generally speaking I'll make notes where that's relevant, but it's also the kind of thing that can be in flux. Yesterday's $90 <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Three Visits" href="#" target="_blank">Three Visits</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> can become $2 today very easily.</p>
<p>Conversely, the opposite can happen. It doesn't even have to be that extreme. For some people, a card hitting $3 can push it out of their price range. Availability is also an issue in that some older cards just don't show up in store cases and trade binders, and then can limit access and make the otherwise less desirable options more attractive. As with price, this is the kind of thing I'll try to note.</p>
<p>I'm also going to focus on cards that are universally good. <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Force of Will" href="#" target="_blank">Force of Will</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> is generally considered one of the strongest counterspells ever printed, but not all decks have enough blue cards in their deck to reliably have one to pitch, whereas there are few if any restrictions in terms of deck construction that might preclude playing a card like <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Rapid Hybridization" href="#" target="_blank">Rapid Hybridization</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>.</p>
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<h2>"Linemen Are Like Salt: Nobody Ever Remembers the Brand"</h2>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Pongify"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Rapid Hybridization"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Reality Shift"></div></div>
<p><span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Pongify" href="#" target="_blank">Pongify</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>, <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Rapid Hybridization" href="#" target="_blank">Rapid Hybridization</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>, and <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Reality Shift" href="#" target="_blank">Reality Shift</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> are three fantastic, instant-speed targeted removal spells that are often times going to slot-block <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Ravenform" href="#" target="_blank">Ravenform</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>. They range in price from $1 for <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Pongify" href="#" target="_blank">Pongify</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> to around $4 for <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Rapid Hybridization" href="#" target="_blank">Rapid Hybridization</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>, with <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Reality Shift" href="#" target="_blank">Reality Shift</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> landing somewhere in the middle. Each one is both more efficient and more versatile, and they generally have less downside. Most importantly, though, you probably don't want more than three of these in a deck, especially given blue's access to counter magic than can solve these problems on the stack.</p>
<p>Now, <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Ravenform" href="#" target="_blank">Ravenform</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> can also hit artifacts, and it can be used in a deck with other <em>Foretell</em> cards to keep it from being obvious which is sitting exiled, waiting to be cast. That's useful, but does it offset the fact that it can be cast in a much narrower window due to being a sorcery? I'm not sure it does. Also, the 1/1 Bird it leaves behind can be relevant in Superfriends decks who don't want to give their opponents evasive blockers, or decks with fliers without trample that might not want to give away chump blockers.</p>
<p>This is just looking at mono-blue decks, too. Azorius and Dimir decks are going to also have access to white and black targeted creature removal spells. All this means that a perfectly good card like <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Ravenform" href="#" target="_blank">Ravenform</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> winds up slot-blocked.</p>
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<h2>"When You Hang with Offensive Linemen, You Tend to Find Places that Serve the Most Food"</h2>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Generous Gift"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Path to Exile"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Swords to Plowshares"></div></div>
<p>Speaking of cards in Azorius decks that might contribute to blocking things like <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Ravenform" href="#" target="_blank">Ravenform</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>, white has the same problem with <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Path to Exile" href="#" target="_blank">Path to Exile</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> and <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Swords to Plowshares" href="#" target="_blank">Swords to Plowshares</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> being perhaps the two best targeted creature removal spells ever printed. Both are certainly popular: Swords to Plowshares is in 114,470 decks, making it literally the second most popular card in Commander behind <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Sol Ring" href="#" target="_blank">Sol Ring</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>. Path isn't far behind as the 21st most popular card overall.</p>
<p>These two cards are effectively keeping otherwise serviceable cards like <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Declaration in Stone" href="#" target="_blank">Declaration in Stone</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> from seeing play. Things get further complicated in white because it has so many open-ended removal spells, like <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Generous Gift" href="#" target="_blank">Generous Gift</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> and <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Council&#039;s Judgment" href="#" target="_blank">Council&#039;s Judgment</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>. Sure, Declaration can hit a swath of tokens, but that doesn't come close to offsetting the fact that it operates at sorcery speed.</p>
<p>The reality is it's going to be really challenging for any single-target creature removal spell in white to ever break through the slot-block that Path and Swords have erected.</p>
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<h2>You Block and Tackle Better than the Team You're Playing, You Win</h2>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Gift of Estates"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Land Tax"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Tithe"></div></div>
<p><span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Gift of Estates" href="#" target="_blank">Gift of Estates</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>, <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Land Tax" href="#" target="_blank">Land Tax</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>, and <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Tithe" href="#" target="_blank">Tithe</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> are the first where price becomes a consistent factor. That's not to say that <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Path to Exile" href="#" target="_blank">Path to Exile</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> and <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Rapid Hybridization" href="#" target="_blank">Rapid Hybridization</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> at roughly $4 each couldn't be a barrier to entry for some people, but the $35 you see on <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Land Tax" href="#" target="_blank">Land Tax</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> and $55 (and rising) you see on <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Tithe" href="#" target="_blank">Tithe</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> are a whole different thing. That said, those cards weren't always those prices. Some folks, myself included, were fortunate enough to get multiple copies of <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Land Tax" href="#" target="_blank">Land Tax</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> at $10 and <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Tithe" href="#" target="_blank">Tithe</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> during the decade-long window when it cost less than <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Path to Exile" href="#" target="_blank">Path to Exile</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>. If you happen to be someone in that position, or if you're someone who can spend that kind of money on cardboard, or are in a proxy-friendly environment, there's just probably never going to be a catch-up land mechanic worth running that's as good as <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Gift of Estates" href="#" target="_blank">Gift of Estates</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>, <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Land Tax" href="#" target="_blank">Land Tax</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>, and <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Tithe" href="#" target="_blank">Tithe</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>.</p>
<p>Further complicating this is the fact that catch-up land mechanics don't stack all that well. Sure, nobody outside a <em>Landfall</em> deck really wants to top-deck that <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Nature&#039;s Lore" href="#" target="_blank">Nature&#039;s Lore</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> when you're already holding a <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Kodama&#039;s Reach" href="#" target="_blank">Kodama&#039;s Reach</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> and <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Three Visits" href="#" target="_blank">Three Visits</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>, but those three cards stack just fine. Ramping land is ramping land; it's always going to put you ahead.</p>
<p>White's catch-up mechanics? The last thing you want to see when you have a <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Land Tax" href="#" target="_blank">Land Tax</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> out letting you fetch three Plains a turn is another card that lets you put Plains into your hand. That's not to say you don't want redundancy. Redundancy is a great thing, and it increases your chances of hitting an effect you want. But you want to keep that density in check to the point where it provides consistency but doesn't become superfluous.</p>
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<h2>Football is Blocking and Tackling. Everything Else is Mythology.</h2>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Darksteel Mutation"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Imprisoned in the Moon"></div></div>
<p>The ability to transform a creature into a worse creature while keeping it in on the board is quite powerful. A traditional removal spell allows the player to recast their creature, especially if it's their commander, and the same is even true of white's older series of <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Oblivion Ring" href="#" target="_blank">Oblivion Ring</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>-esque cards thanks to the Commander replacement effect on an exiled card. With a card like <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Darksteel Mutation" href="#" target="_blank">Darksteel Mutation</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>, your opponent's commander is just stuck in play, being useless.</p>
<p>The problem with this type of effect is even if they break through the slot-block caused by cards like <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Swords to Plowshares" href="#" target="_blank">Swords to Plowshares</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> and <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Pongify" href="#" target="_blank">Pongify</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>, you probably don't want more than one of them, and they printed the best versions in white and blue the first time around. Sure, maybe <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Heliod&#039;s Punishment" href="#" target="_blank">Heliod&#039;s Punishment</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> or <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Reprobation" href="#" target="_blank">Reprobation</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> would see play if <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Darksteel Mutation" href="#" target="_blank">Darksteel Mutation</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> didn't exist, but it does, and it's much harder to get rid of thanks to granting the creature indestructible. You can't just cut a deal to have an opponent chump block and kill it.</p>
<p>Same with <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Imprisoned in the Moon" href="#" target="_blank">Imprisoned in the Moon</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>, which can also target a troublesome land or planeswalker, and is similarly hard to deal with since it makes the target a land. Absent Imprisoned, things like <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Deep Freeze" href="#" target="_blank">Deep Freeze</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> get much more interesting, but Imprisoned does exist, and you generally don't want a second, worse copy.</p>
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<h2>Anyone Can Run, Not Anybody Can Block</h2>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Mystic Remora"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Rhystic Study"></div></div>
<p>The "problem" with <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Phyrexian Arena" href="#" target="_blank">Phyrexian Arena</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>-style cards is they take a full turn to generate your first extra draw, providing ample time for your opponents to come up with a removal. <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Mystic Remora" href="#" target="_blank">Mystic Remora</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> and <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Rhystic Study" href="#" target="_blank">Rhystic Study</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> eliminate that somewhat by generating potential draws immediately, assuming an opponent tries to cast a spell. They also have the potential to generate so much card advantage as to render that risk largely irrelevant.</p>
<p>Still, it's not a sure thing. <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Rhystic Study" href="#" target="_blank">Rhystic Study</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> can draw you a dozen cards, but it can also draw none if someone has a <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Nature&#039;s Claim" href="#" target="_blank">Nature&#039;s Claim</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> in hand and one extra mana. You're also limited to sorcery-casting timing. Because of this, you probably don't want too many enchantment-based draw effects. And when these two are so phenomenal, it's going to be hard for a third to push into that space.</p>
<hr />
<h2>Overtime</h2>
<p>So why am I talking about this? Well, because when it comes to evaluating cards, one thing people miss out on each spoiler season is the fact that a card being <em>good</em> isn't necessarily important. What matters is whether or not a card is good <em>enough</em> to find a slot in a deck where it may be getting slot-blocked by existing, superior cards. It was something I saw quite a bit with <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Ravenform" href="#" target="_blank">Ravenform</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>, and it's something I'd imagine we'll see again as the next expansion is revealed.</p>
<p>Before you get too caught up in how great a card is gonna be in Commander, just look if it's going to have a home, given the completion, and make your evaluation based with that in mind. Thanks for reading, and, as always, may your numbers be superior.</p>


ravenform

Too-Specific Top 10 - (Last) Year in Review

Superior Numbers - Slot-Blockers