Achievement Unlocked - Winning in the Most Epic Way

<h6 style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-weight: 400;">(<span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Dragon&#039;s Approach" href="#" target="_blank">Dragon&#039;s Approach</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> | Art by </span><a href="http://www.andrewkmar.com/"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Andrew Mar</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">)</span></h6>
<h1><span style="font-weight: 400;">Burn After Reading</span></h1>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Feel like your deck just is not coming together? Welcome to <i>Solve the Equation</i>, where we take a look at the numbers and see what's making your deck and in-game decision-making fall flat.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I love playing burn decks! There is something about slinging <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Lightning Bolt" href="#" target="_blank">Lightning Bolt</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>s at an opponent's face that's cathartic for me. Unfortunately, while burn is a viable aggro strategy in many other formats, it has long been an underachiever in Commander. The math gets a lot hairier here. Burn decks perform best when there is as little thinking to do as possible. Every spell is going straight at your opponent’s face. However, with 120 life points to whittle down, 3 damage feels pretty lackluster, and a singleton format means we can't even rely on the burn spells we need. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Well, what if I told you there's one burn spell you can rely on having in your hand? Come on! It's 2022, the age of power creep. The last few years have given burn a bunch of new toys which I think might just make it playable.</span></p>
<hr />
<h2><span style="font-weight: 400;">Damage Output </span></h2>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Dragon&#039;s Approach"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Lightning Bolt"></div></div>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;"><span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Dragon&#039;s Approach" href="#" target="_blank">Dragon&#039;s Approach</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> shares some similarities with <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Lightning Bolt" href="#" target="_blank">Lightning Bolt</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>. The biggest similarity is, of course, 3 damage, but this spell hits <em>each</em> opponent. Our opponents each have 40 life, which means it would take approximately 13.3 <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Dragon&#039;s Approach" href="#" target="_blank">Dragon&#039;s Approach</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>s to kill our opponents. Admittedly, this is much worse than the 6.6 <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Lightning Bolt" href="#" target="_blank">Lightning Bolt</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>s it would take to kill an opponent in a 1-on-1 format such as Modern, but when you start to count how many Bolts it would take to kill off each opponent in Commander, 13.3 sounds like a perfectly fine starting point.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Now, what if there was a way to make our Approaches as efficient at killing our opponents as <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Lightning Bolt" href="#" target="_blank">Lightning Bolt</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> is in Modern? For this we can turn to one of the game’s most broken mechanics: <em>Companion</em>. Legendary creatures with this mechanic can be played as your commander without any deckbuilding requirement. <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Obosh, the Preypiercer" href="#" target="_blank">Obosh, the Preypiercer</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> is the perfect burn commander and can leverage <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Dragon&#039;s Approach" href="#" target="_blank">Dragon&#039;s Approach</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> better than any other deck.</span></p>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Obosh, the Preypiercer"></div></div>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;"><span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Obosh, the Preypiercer" href="#" target="_blank">Obosh, the Preypiercer</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> doubles the damage that our odd-costed cards deal. 6 damage to each opponent for 3-mana is a <em>very </em>appealing rate. That's 18 total damage for 3 mana off of one card. That's a combined 15% of our opponent’s life totals, which is the same damage output of a single <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Lightning Bolt" href="#" target="_blank">Lightning Bolt</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> in a 60-card format.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: center;">18 Damage / 120 Life (3 Opponents) = 15%</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">vs</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">3 Damage / 20 Life (1 Opponent) = 15%</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr />
<h2><span style="font-weight: 400;">How Many Do We Need?</span></h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Time to break out the </span><a href="https://aetherhub.com/Apps/HyperGeometric"><span style="font-weight: 400;">hypergeometric calculator</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> to figure out how many Approaches we want in our deck. It's always important when deckbuilding that we remember our goal. Are we going to beat the table exclusively with <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Dragon&#039;s Approach" href="#" target="_blank">Dragon&#039;s Approach</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>? Probably not, so we want to make sure we can at least get a free Dragon out of the deal! If we cast the spell approximately five times, let's see what we get.</span></p>
<p><strong>Without <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Obosh, the Preypiercer" href="#" target="_blank">Obosh, the Preypiercer</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400;">15 damage to each opponent (45 total / ~38% of your opponents’ life) + Dragon of our choice </span></li>
</ul>
<p><strong>With <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Obosh, the Preypiercer" href="#" target="_blank">Obosh, the Preypiercer</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400;">30 damage to each opponent (90 total / ~75% of your opponents’ life) + Dragon of our choice </span></li>
</ul>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">So we don’t actually need to cast this spell a ton of times to have a big effect, but we do need to reliably have the cards in our hand. Let’s imagine a hypothetical game that's expected to go about 10 turns. If we can draw, on average, approximately 2 cards a turn over those 10 turns, then by turn 10 we'll be 27 cards deep into our deck.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Let’s take a look at the odds at different Dragon’s Approach counts:</span></p>
<p><strong>10 Approaches</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400;">Chance to draw 5 or more of the wanted card = 9.58%</span></li>
<li>Chance to draw exactly 5 of the wanted card = 7.25%</li>
<li>Chance to draw 5 or less of the wanted card = 97.7%</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>20 Approaches</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400;">Chance to draw 5 or more of the wanted card = 69.7%</span></li>
<li>Chance to draw exactly 5 of the wanted card = 21.8%</li>
<li>Chance to draw 5 or less of the wanted card = 52.1%</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>30 Approaches</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400;">Chance to draw 5 or more of the wanted card = 96.8% </span></li>
<li>Chance to draw exactly 5 of the wanted card = 5.99%</li>
<li>Chance to draw 5 or less of the wanted card = 9.16%</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>40 Approaches</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400;">Chance to draw 5 or more of the wanted card = 99.9% </span></li>
<li>Chance to draw exactly 5 of the wanted card = 0.421%</li>
<li>Chance to draw 5 or less of the wanted card = 0.533%</li>
</ul>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">10 is definitely not enough, as the overwhelming odds suggest we won't draw enough cards. 20 is moving in the right direction, but a 22% chance of failing to draw 5 Approaches is higher than I would like. 40, on the other hand, nearly guarantees we draw the Approaches, but at that point we'll have more Approaches than lands and will barely be able to fit anything else into our deck. It looks like the sweet spot would be somewhere between 30 and 40 Approaches.</span></p>
<hr />
<h2><span style="font-weight: 400;">The Dragons are Approaching</span></h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">All that said, this is not simply a burn deck. One thing many burn players love even more than a <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Lightning Bolt" href="#" target="_blank">Lightning Bolt</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> is a Dragon that can dish out even more damage. The exciting text on <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Dragon&#039;s Approach" href="#" target="_blank">Dragon&#039;s Approach</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> is not the damage output; we want Dragons! The biggest pitfall a burn deck runs into is running out of gas, but once we cast enough Approaches, they can solve this issue. Plenty of the format’s best Dragons can draw us cards, gain advantage, or just do more burning in general, and we can get them for free just by pursuing our burn strategy.</span></p>
<h3><span style="font-weight: 400;">Card Advantage Dragons</span></h3>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Knollspine Dragon"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Dragon Mage"></div></div>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The Approach spells don't add any card advantage on their own, so oftentimes the first Dragon we want to grab should be one that refills our hand. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;"><strong><span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Knollspine Dragon" href="#" target="_blank">Knollspine Dragon</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span></strong> - We're dealing loads of damage to our opponents, so this Dragon draws a veritable butt-ton of cards.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;"><strong><span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Dragon Mage" href="#" target="_blank">Dragon Mage</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span></strong> - Not only will <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Dragon Mage" href="#" target="_blank">Dragon Mage</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> refill the hand, but it can also screw up our opponents’ plans. It's important to be careful with this one, because if opponents are low on cards, it could help them refuel, too.</span></p>
<h3><span style="font-weight: 400;">Damage-Dealing Dragons</span></h3>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Balefire Dragon"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Drakuseth, Maw of Flames"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Terror of the Peaks"></div></div>
<p>Our burn spells won't be enough to finish our opponents off, so we may want to grab a Dragon that can deal out enough damage to take us the rest of the way. We want to focus on odd-mana Dragons, since they'll deal double the damage with our commander’s ability.</p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;"><strong><span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Balefire Dragon" href="#" target="_blank">Balefire Dragon</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span></strong> - This card will clear one opponent’s entire board. One of the the biggest factors that can throw a wrench in our plans is an opponent who has a ton of creatures attacking us. This will quickly and continually take care of that issue.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;"><strong><span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Drakuseth, Maw of Flames" href="#" target="_blank">Drakuseth, Maw of Flames</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span></strong> - Just read the card. So. Much. Damage! And double it!</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;"><strong><span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Terror of the Peaks" href="#" target="_blank">Terror of the Peaks</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span></strong> - The next Dragon we bring out is really going to hurt. Plus, if an opponent tries to take it out, it'll cost them even more life.</span></p>
<h3><span style="font-weight: 400;">Utility Dragons</span></h3>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Bladewing the Risen"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Ancient Copper Dragon"></div></div>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Some Dragons will help keep our strategy going, including by bringing out <em>even more Dragons!</em></span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;"><strong><span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Bladewing the Risen" href="#" target="_blank">Bladewing the Risen</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span></strong> - If one of our Dragons was taken out earlier, we can bring it right back.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;"><strong><span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Ancient Copper Dragon" href="#" target="_blank">Ancient Copper Dragon</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span></strong> - Our spells are expensive, so the more help we have on mana, the better. Not many Dragons can create more mana than this one.</span></p>
<hr />
<h2><span style="font-weight: 400;">It's All Coming Together</span></h2>
<p>Time to flesh out the rest of the deck with some key support pieces!</p>
<h3><span style="font-weight: 400;">Cost-Reducers</span></h3>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Ruby Medallion"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Nightscape Familiar"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Locket of Yesterdays"></div></div>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The biggest knock against <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Dragon&#039;s Approach" href="#" target="_blank">Dragon&#039;s Approach</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> is that it costs three mana. There are a number of cards that can reduce the cost of the spell and will quickly allow us to cast multiple spells a turn. What makes these spells stand out over a traditional ramp spell is that they apply the discount to <em>each</em> spell we cast in a turn.</span></p>
<h3><span style="font-weight: 400;">When Dragons Aren't Enough</span></h3>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Mizzix&#039;s Mastery"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Thrumming Stone"></div></div>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">When Dragons and burn spells aren't enough, sometimes we need a little extra push to take us the rest of the way. On the surface, </span><span style="font-weight: 400;"><span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Mizzix&#039;s Mastery" href="#" target="_blank">Mizzix&#039;s Mastery</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> seems contradictory to this strategy, as it exiles the cards from the graveyard. However, sometimes you just need to push through a little bit more damage, and this spell can deal a boatload to just close things out. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Oh, and who could forget <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Thrumming Stone" href="#" target="_blank">Thrumming Stone</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>? This artifact is getting a reprint in <em>Double Masters 2022,</em> which will hopefully make it more accessible. This card can potentially cast through an entire library of Approaches and win the game on the spot!</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Check out the full deck here:</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;"><div class="edhrecp__deck mtgh"><span class="edhrecp__deck-s" name="Obosh Burn" site="edhrec" archidekt_link="" cards="[Commander]
*1 Obosh, the Preypiercer
[/Commander]
[Sorceries]
*1 Blasphemous Act
*1 Browbeat
*1 Chandra&#039;s Ignition
*1 Crux of Fate
*30 Dragon&#039;s Approach
*1 Jeska&#039;s Will
*1 Mizzix&#039;s Mastery
*1 Night&#039;s Whisper
*1 Read the Bones
[/Sorceries]
[Creatures]
*1 Ancient Copper Dragon
*1 Balefire Dragon
*1 Birgi, God of Storytelling
*1 Bladewing the Risen
*1 Dragon Mage
*1 Dragonlord&#039;s Servant
*1 Dragonspeaker Shaman
*1 Drakuseth, Maw of Flames
*1 Guttersnipe
*1 Knollspine Dragon
*1 Nightscape Familiar
*1 Terror of the Peaks
[/Creatures]
[Instants]
*1 Chaos Warp
[/Instants]
[Enchantments]
*1 Dragon Tempest
*1 Harness the Storm
*1 Pyromancer Ascension
[/Enchantments]
[Artifacts]
*1 Arcane Signet
*1 Locket of Yesterdays
*1 Pyromancer&#039;s Goggles
*1 Rakdos Signet
*1 Ruby Medallion
*1 Sol Ring
*1 Talisman of Indulgence
*1 Thrumming Stone
*1 Wayfarer&#039;s Bauble
[/Artifacts]
[Lands]
*1 Blightstep Pathway
*1 Blood Crypt
*1 Bloodstained Mire
*1 Bojuka Bog
*1 Command Tower
*1 Dragonskull Summit
*1 Evolving Wilds
*1 Exotic Orchard
*1 Fabled Passage
*1 Graven Cairns
*1 Haunted Ridge
*1 Haven of the Spirit Dragon
*1 Luxury Suite
*9 Mountain
*1 Myriad Landscape
*1 Prismatic Vista
*1 Smoldering Marsh
*1 Sulfurous Springs
*9 Swamp
*1 Terramorphic Expanse
[/Lands]"></span></div></span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;"></span></p>
<hr />
<p>What are your favorite burn cards in Commander? Is Obosh the best burn commander out there? I certainly think so, but the <a href="https://www.edhrec.com/themes/burn">EDHREC data shows it at 7th</a> for that dedicated archetype. Some of the more popular include <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Torbran, Thane of Red Fell" href="#" target="_blank">Torbran, Thane of Red Fell</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>, <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Toralf, God of Fury" href="#" target="_blank">Toralf, God of Fury</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>, and <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Firesong and Sunspeaker" href="#" target="_blank">Firesong and Sunspeaker</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span></p>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Torbran, Thane of Red Fell"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Toralf, God of Fury"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Firesong and Sunspeaker"></div></div>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Which one is your favorite? Is there a better <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Dragon&#039;s Approach" href="#" target="_blank">Dragon&#039;s Approach</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> deck? Let me know in the comments below.</span></p>


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