Dragonhawk, Fate's Tempest | Art by Antonio J. Manzanedo

White | Blue | Black | Red | Green | Artifacts/Lands | Allied Colors/Shards | Enemy Colors/Wedges | cEDH | Reprints | Pauper/Budget

If you can't secure the rights to Universes Beyond: Redwall, just design it anyway and call it Bloomburrow. Speaking of which, welcome to Bloomburrow!

And welcome to The Over/Under, the article series where we predict how popular new commanders will become one year after release. The line is 1,200 decks, so each new commander gets an "Over" or "Under" depending on how many decks I think they'll lead. I'll also do one Can't-Miss Pick, which is my most confident selection of the set. Once a year's gone by, we'll review my work.

Ready to step into a world populated by raccoons, rabbits, squirrels, and probably lots of fleas? Let's get started.

Beza, the Bounding Spring

Assuming you’ve got at least three opponents in any given game, the odds are strong that several of these abilities will trigger reliably. Blinking just adds to the value, and in white, that’s easy to find.

My prediction: Over

Eluge, the Shoreless Sea

The last time we saw Flood counters was on Xolatoyac, the Smiling Flood from Lost Caverns of Ixalan. That card has already gone Over, but Eluge here looks like too good a fit in Xolatoyac’s 99. I expect that's where it'll end up, rather than headlining its own deck.

My prediction: Under

Kitsa, Otterball Elite

I wasn't sure what to make of this fellow, which is why I consulted the official Over/Under Consiglieries, Jason and Shane, for their opinions. Speaking of overs, Jason called Kitsa "the Final Fantasy X Blitzball crossover we've always wanted," and that reference went way over my head. The rest of his analysis made more sense.

Basically, Jason thinks there are easier ways to copy spells in mono-blue, and I'm inclined to agree. I mean, Jin-Gitaxias, Progress Tyrant does so with no additional investment.

My prediction: Under

Maha, Its Feathers Night

The most obvious—and dare I say, cruel—combo with Maha is Night of Souls' Betrayal. Your opponents won't be allowed to keep a single creature until thy answer that combo. If that isn’t enough for an Over, I don’t know what is.

My prediction: Over

Dragonhawk, Fate's Tempest

The closest comp I see to Dragonhawk is Valakut Exploration, which appears in a heck of a lot of decks (52,741, to be exact). D-hawk is even better, since you can flip far more cards for twice the damage, and you also get a 5/5 flying dragon.

Plus, the more cards you exile, the more likely you are to find more 4+ power creatures, which flips even more cards, and...I think you see where this is going.

My prediction: Over

Lumra, Bellow of the Woods

This bellower is basically Beanstalk Giant with two keywords, a mill four, and a Splendid Reclamation stapled on. That's a lot of value, even for six mana, and with two relevant creature types attached, I think this big bear is headed for big things.

My prediction: Over

Kastral, the Windcrested

Players can make Bird typal work, even with lousy commanders (see Kangee, Sky Warden). Fortunately, Kastral is far from lousy, which means its numbers should soar.

My prediction: Over

Vren, the Relentless

This card seems utterly busted. In fact, it’s basically Umbris, Fear Manifest with extra typal synergies. Cards like Boggart Trawler, Tasha's Hideous Laughter, and Ashiok, Dream Render make it easy to exile several cards at once, building you a bigger rat swarm than those native to New York City's subway system. And if you can make it there, you can make it anywhere.

My prediction: Over

Gev, Scaled Scorch

This card might not look like much until you read the fine print. It’s a counter for each opponent who lost life in the turn, meaning up to three free counters per creature in your average game. And does Rakdos like pinging? Just ask Rakdos, Lord of Riots himself.

My prediction: Over

The Infamous Cruelclaw

If you enjoy cascading, this weasel comes pretty close. With a little topdeck manipulation via Sensei's Divining Top and the like, you can guarantee an impactful flip. Furthermore, the downside isn’t even bad with madness cards, of which red and black offer many. Finally, this guy's got real Puss-in-Boots energy, which can't hurt.

My prediction: Over

Bello, Bard of the Brambles

Bello resembles a feral Tom Nook, though Nook still drives the harder bargain. His requisite artifacts and enchantments aren’t hard to come by, and many, such as Nylea, God of the Hunt or any other Therosian on-color gods, actively want to be animated. All hail Bello—and Nook, for that matter.

My prediction: Over

Hugs, Grisly Guardian

If this guy invites you to “hug it out,” that’s a threat. Hugs also threatens to double-activate landfall abilities, not to mention providing a potent mana-sink in the late game. You’d better bet your badger this is going Over.

My prediction: Over

Muerra, Trash Tactician

I'm not a fan of this expend mechanic, especially if you're playing in paper, which most EDH players are. It's tedious to track what you're spending mana on, especially when it only cares about mana spent to cast spells. I can envision many stoppages of play where people backtrack to determine where they spent and what on. Sounds trashy to me.

My prediction: Under

Wildsear, Scouring Maw

Red-green enchantments hasn't received much support, yet Wildsear here instantly gives us a reason to brew. There are plenty of green Enchantress-style effects to supplement this strategy (Eidolon of Blossoms, Setessan Champion, and Verduran Enchantress herself), while red offers high-cost, high-impact enchantments that are perfect for cascading (City on Fire being my favorite). Smokey the Bear would not approve of this commander, but I do.

My prediction: Over

Byrke, Long Ear of the Law

When the word "double" appears on a Magic card, you're usually in business. So it goes with Byrke here, who goes positively nutty with Mikaeus, the Lunarch, Champion of Lambholt, Gyre Sage, and many other cards.

My prediction: Over

Finneas, Ace Archer

Yeah, but where’s Ferb? Seriously, this card’s borderline. Rabbits aren’t exactly plentiful in MTG, and though tokens are, attacking with a 2/2 just to trigger is a steep cost. I've been waffling on this one, but after a quick consultation with the Consiglieres, we've reached a consensus.

Our prediction: Under

Zoraline, Cosmos Caller

There are more Bats in Magic than, say, Otters, yet there still aren't enough to get me jazzed about this one. That's going to be the challenge of this set, since pretty much all the types they've chosen are fairly shallow. Some are bound to excel despite their scarcity, but others, like Bats, probably won't get there.

My prediction: Under

Alania, Divergent Storm

Of the three card types listed on Alania, Otters are the easiest to come by. Still, if you try hard enough, I suppose you can find some instants and sorceries, too. I’m not thrilled about giving free cards to opponents, but when used as a bargaining tool, that can become another upside.

My prediction: Over

Bria, Riptide Rogue

I'm sure many players out there are disappointed this isn't a Wizard, but it's hard to get any cuter than Otters. Plus, this otter really goes off with token-making noncreature spells such as Intrude on the Mind, Song of Totentanz, and Empty the Warrens. Might have to build this one myself.

My prediction: Over

Camellia, the Seedmiser

This card is surprisingly fearsome for a squirrel. I mean, imagine it with the classic Cauldron Familiar + Witch's Oven combo. Or Trail of Crumbs. Or Deranged Hermit. Or pretty much any cards with the words “Squirrel” and/or “Food” on them.

My prediction: Over

Hazel of the Rootbloom

I like this squirrel less than our last, though admittedly, Hazel produces ridiculous amounts of mana, especially when paired with pretty much anything that generates tokens. Furthermore, a free populate that even works with noncreature tokens is nothing to chitter at.

My prediction: Over

The Odd Acorn Gang

A squirrel gang is already pretty funny, though this is more than just a meme card. Squirrels naturally go wide, so pooling their strength into a few massive attackers is a great way to beat up your opponents. The card draw is just gravy—or acorn paste, as it were.

My prediction: Over

Ygra, Eater of All

If you eat a Cat and/or Elemental while Ygra’s on the battlefield, that technically makes Ygra a cannibal, which is troubling. But here’s what’s not troubling: Everything else about this card. Not only does it work great with all the usual food makers—it even gives creatures that want to die a new way to sacrifice themselves for value (I’m looking at you, Mitotic Slime). The buffet is officially open.

My prediction: Over (Can't-Miss Pick)

Mabel, Heir to Cragflame

Two nice cards for three mana is already great, and Mabel's unique typal synergy can't be ignored, either. We got a few mice in Wilds of Eldraine and we're getting plenty more in this set, so I suspect that'll be just enough.

My prediction: Over

Clement, the Worrywort

The Consigliaries weren’t impressed by this card, and neither am I. Our main problem is the typing. I mean…Frogs? There are currently only 1791 Frog decks in all of EDHREC. Not exactly a ringing—or ribbiting—endorsement.

My prediction: Under

Wick, the Whorled Mind

I don’t know who came up with this card. Probably Rosewater, or maybe Pixar, since it’s a Rat that makes Snails, also known as escargot, which echoes the plot of Ratatouille.

Whoever made it, people are going to play it. There’s no other card quite like Wick, and since Rats come in multiples, you'll easily build a big Snail to sacrifice. What fun!

My prediction: Over

Baylen, the Haymaker

There are many Rabbits in my yard, but none of them wield scythes. Yet.

Until they do, I’ll enjoy this card. Note that this ability isn’t limited to creature tokens, so even Treasures, Clues, and Food work. That’s incredible upside on a three-mana commander, making this one of the set’s best.

My prediction: Over

Helga, Skittish Seer

It’s hard to call Helga a build-around when it’s asking you to build around cards every deck plays, anyway. Easy grade here.

My prediction: Over

Mr. Foxglove

This is the kind of Bant commander I dislike, since it's just a generic value engine that doesn't ask you to do anything interesting. Think Chulane, Teller of Tales, only slightly more stylish.

That said, Chulane leads a whopping 7182 decks. I don't think Mr. Foxglove will get quite that popular—but he'll come close.

My prediction: Over

Ms. Bumbleflower

I know it’s supposed to be cute, but I find this artwork deeply creepy. Furthermore, Ms. Bumbleflower has the whiff of Group Hug about her, an archetype I detest. Still, I’m in the minority on that opinion, and this is the face card of a commander deck. Those rarely go Under.

My prediction: Over

Flubs, the Fool

If your name is “Flubs,” you kind of have to be a fool. I mean, would you trust Flubs, the Air Traffic Controller?

I would, however, trust Flubs as a commander. There’s no other card like him, and no other frog that plays so well with Case of the Crimson Pulse. Kermit, you’re on notice.

My prediction: Over

Arthur, Marigold Knight

Arthur reminds me of Zurgo and Ojutai from March of the Machine, which isn't a great sign, since that commander went Under. Just note the same colors and mana value, along with haste and an effect that bounces an attacker.

Plus, when Zurgo and Ojutai went Under, I promised myself, "That's the last time I'll trust an orc riding a dragon." This appears to be a mouse riding a sentient bundle of sticks, but that's close enough.

My prediction: Under

Zinnia, Valley's Voice

If I'm remembering right, this is the first base-power-1-matters commander we've seen since Tetsuko Umezawa, Fugitive. Zinnia adds two more colors, along with a way to make even more 1/xs. Plus, it's on the box of its commander product. And it has a cool hat.

My prediction: Over

Glarb, Calamity's Augur

“Glarb” is the approximate sound I make when I've eaten too much Taco Bell. It’s also a fantastic commander, offering a great place to put your mana, along with card selection and graveyard-building to boot. It’s also Sultai, which is one of the format's most popular color combinations. Now please excuse me while I order a Big Cheez-It Tostada...

My prediction: Over

Recap

Over (27)

Under (7)

Lorwyn is my favorite set, and this set has definite Lorwyn vibes, down to the weirdo typal synergies. Here's hoping the otters, frogs, and whatever else can live up to the hype.

hazel of the rootbloom

The Over/Under - Predicting the Popularity of Bloomburrow Commanders

Bloomburrow Set Review - Enemies & Wedges