Too-Specific Top 10 - Equal Value

<h5>Editor's Note: We've re-filtered the way the below data was acquired. A lengthier explanation and updated evaluation on average card type distribution <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9IY18Dl8Xv8">can be found here</a>.</h5>
<h2 style="text-align: center;">This land was made for you and me</h2>
<p>The average deck on EDHREC is running 29 lands and four mana rocks. Is that number too high or too low?</p>
<p>Welcome to <em>Superior Numbers,</em> where I try to do numerical analysis on cards and deck building trends using slightly more math and slightly less snark than in my usual column.</p>
<p>Slightly.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://articles.edhrec.com/superior-numbers-exotic-orchard/">first few times around in this series</a> we took a look at individual cards, but this time around we're going to go a few levels higher and take a look at the average amount of lands being ran in EDH decks in our database.</p>
<p>This stats dive was prompted by the last column I wrote, where I examined <a href="http://articles.edhrec.com/superior-numbers-vedalken-orrery/">Vedalken Orrery</a>. Over the course of goldfishing a hundred or so hands with random decks online, I noticed that I was unable to hit four colorless mana by turn four way more often than I would have thought, and by and large this seemed to be due to a dearth of both lands and mana rocks in the decks I was testing. How to find out for sure though?</p>
<p>Don Miner to the rescue!</p>
<p>EDHREC mastermind and unrepentant stax player Donald Miner did a little custom stat parsing for me, and pulled the following information from our database:</p>
<ul>
<li>The average deck on EDHREC is running just over 29 lands.</li>
<li>Decks added in the last year average 31 lands.</li>
<li>The average deck on EDHREC has 4.15 mana rocks.</li>
</ul>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Llanowar Elves"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Overgrowth"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Rampant Growth"></div></div>
<hr />
<h2 style="text-align: center;"><a>"Buy land, they're not making it anymore."</a></h2>
<p>A couple of notes about those stats:</p>
<ul>
<li>Some decks choose to not run any mana rocks, but that doesn't mean they don't have other ramp options. Looking through my own list of decks, for example, my <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Sigarda, Host of Herons" href="#" target="_blank">Sigarda, Host of Herons</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> enchantress deck has zero artifacts, and thus zero mana rocks, instead electing to run enchantment-based ramp like <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Overgrowth" href="#" target="_blank">Overgrowth</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> and <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Wild Growth" href="#" target="_blank">Wild Growth</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>. Decks like this will drag the overall stats down while still being able to ramp effectively.</li>
<li><em>Landfall</em> or other themed decks may also run less rocks. Again, looking at my own decks, my <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Mina and Denn, Wildborn" href="#" target="_blank">Mina and Denn, Wildborn</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> <em>Landfall</em> list is running a single rock - <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Sol Ring" href="#" target="_blank">Sol Ring</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> - because the deck is designed around generating <em>Landfall</em> triggers. The ramp there is skewed heavily towards green's land ramp spells like <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Nature&#039;s Lore" href="#" target="_blank">Nature&#039;s Lore</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> and <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Sakura-Tribe Elder" href="#" target="_blank">Sakura-Tribe Elder</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>. Green is also statistically the most popular color in <em>Magic</em>, and its native land ramp probably also somewhat depresses the mana rock count while still leaving a deck with enough non-rock ramp to function.</li>
<li>Mana dorks like <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Llanowar Elves" href="#" target="_blank">Llanowar Elves</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> were also not figured into the equation, giving us yet another ramp archetype that allows a deck to function while dragging our above statistics lower and lower.</li>
<li>Small draw spells and filtering like <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Ponder" href="#" target="_blank">Ponder</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>, <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Preordain" href="#" target="_blank">Preordain</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>, and <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Opt" href="#" target="_blank">Opt</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> also make it easier to find the lands and rocks in a deck with a lower land count.</li>
</ul>
<p>Additionally, cEDH decks tend to run leaner land counts thanks to the decks having generally lower curves and shorter game lengths, and there are plenty of cEDH decks showing up in the database. I asked Cameron of the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCo41YdkXVTp4dTXvhduaeYw">Laboratory Maniacs</a> YouTube channel if he could tell me succinctly what the rough guidelines for a cEDH deck were, and like the overachiever that he is, he wrote me a detailed, multi-page breakdown of the cEDH theorycrafting behind lands and mana sources. It's almost a separate article unto itself that he should write for us, but for brevity's sake I'm just going to reference the most interesting part: this breakdown grid of the lands and mana rocks ran on four popular cEDH decks:</p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-full wp-image-28429 aligncenter" src="https://articles.edhrec.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Untitled.jpg" alt="" width="341" height="180" /></p>
<p>The Breakfast Hulk deck has the lowest land + mana source count, sitting at 33, which is comparable to the 29 lands and 4 rocks we saw above. Jeleva and Kess Storm are a bit higher, and Food Chain Tazri tops out at 28 lands and 43 total sources. Look at the average CMC of those decks, though: 1.7, 1.92, 2.04 and 1.68. That is radically lower than the 3+ CMC average of decks in our database.</p>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="General Tazri"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Jeleva, Nephalia&#039;s Scourge"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Kess, Dissident Mage"></div></div>
<hr />
<h2 style="text-align: center;">It's free real estate!</h2>
<p><a href="https://articles.edhrec.com/author/nate-burgess/">EDHREC writer,</a> former <a href="http://www.commanderinmtg.com/">Commanderin'</a> host, and current <a href="https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/commander-time/id1249882486?mt=2">Commander Time!</a> host Nate Burgess has long championed a specific formula for non-cEDH level decks:</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><em>Number of lands = 31 + amount of colors in commander's color identity + commander CMC, with 0-CMC mana rocks counting as lands. </em></p>
<p>We're seeing numbers nowhere near that formula in decks nowhere near the average CMC of Cameron's cEDH lists. 29 lands and 4 rocks feels really, really low, even if you do have land ramp and enchantment-based mana production and mana dorks.</p>
<p>It <em>feels </em>too low, but it it <em>truly</em> too low? Let's goldfish out 100 random decks and see what we find.</p>
<p>Some ground rules: I'll mulligan away any hand with only 1 usable mana-producing land (<span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Cabal Coffers" href="#" target="_blank">Cabal Coffers</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>, <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Diamond Valley" href="#" target="_blank">Diamond Valley</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>, <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Maze of Ith" href="#" target="_blank">Maze of Ith</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>, and other non-mana-producing lands wouldn't count as lands). I will only keep a hand with 2 usable lands if I'm able to cast a mana source or a way to fetch another land. <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Azorius Signet" href="#" target="_blank">Azorius Signet</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> or <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Into the North" href="#" target="_blank">Into the North</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> would count, as would <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Birds of Paradise" href="#" target="_blank">Birds of Paradise</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>. Additionally, if there were any castable draw or filtering spells like <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Brainstorm" href="#" target="_blank">Brainstorm</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> available, I would cast them to hit a land if needed.</p>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Birds of Paradise"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Talisman of Dominance"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Wayfarer&#039;s Bauble"></div></div>
<hr />
<h2 style="text-align: center;"><a>"The soil of their native land is dear to all the hearts of mankind."</a></h2>
<ul>
<li>26% of the decks tested missed their T3 land drop and were unable to play any mana source within the first three turns.</li>
<li>21% of the decks tested missed their T3 land drop but <em>were</em> able to play a mana source, i.e. two lands and a <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Birds of Paradise" href="#" target="_blank">Birds of Paradise</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> or <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Talisman of Dominance" href="#" target="_blank">Talisman of Dominance</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> or fetching a land with something like <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Wayfarer&#039;s Bauble" href="#" target="_blank">Wayfarer&#039;s Bauble</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>.</li>
</ul>
<p>More than 1/4 of all decks tested just flat out missed their T3 land drop. That is terrible, and it will make you lose games before they've even begun.</p>
<p>So how many lands and rocks should you run? Certainly more than 29 and 4. Nate's formula is a good place to start for most decks. If nothing else, just up your land and rock count to the point where you can consistently make mana equal to the turn number. Regardless of how you get there, the current average numbers are far too anemic for anything but the most tuned of cEDH lists. There's a reason preconstructed Commander decks come with an average of over 37 lands!</p>
<p>Thanks for reading! I'd like to leave off with a new decklist of mine for a high-CMC commander, where land counts and mana sources are especially important. Hopefully I've hit on a good number of mana sources for the deck to play properly, but just like the experiment above, playtesting will be the best way to tell!</p>
<p>If you have any suggestions for other topics to cover in a future <em>Superior Numbers</em> leave a note in the comments below!</p>
<div class="edhrecp__deck mtgh"><span class="edhrecp__deck-s" name="Teysa Orzhov Armory" site="edhrec" archidekt_link="" cards="[Commander]
*1 Teysa, Envoy of Ghosts
[/Commander]
[Lands]
*1 Isolated Chapel
*1 Command Tower
*1 Scavenger Grounds
*1 Bojuka Bog
*1 Marsh Flats
*1 Caves of Koilos
*1 Reliquary Tower
*1 Homeward Path
*1 Temple of Silence
*1 Tainted Field
*1 Tectonic Edge
*1 Buried Ruin
*1 Strip Mine
*1 Fetid Heath
*1 Cabal Coffers
*1 Hall of the Bandit Lord
*1 Kor Haven
*1 Ancient Tomb
*1 Scrubland
*1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
*1 Godless Shrine
*1 Ancient Den
*1 Vault of Whispers
*1 Darksteel Citadel
*6 Swamp
*6 Plains
[/lands]
[Artifacts]
*1 Hammer of Nazahn
*1 Sword of the Animist
*1 Inspiring Statuary
*1 Conqueror&#039;s Flail
*1 Cranial Plating
*1 Fellwar Stone
*1 Champion&#039;s Helm
*1 Mana Crypt
*1 Sword of Light and Shadow
*1 Sword of Body and Mind
*1 Umezawa&#039;s Jitte
*1 Thought Vessel
*1 Expedition Map
*1 Thran Dynamo
*1 Inquisitor&#039;s Flail
*1 Mask of Avacyn
*1 Sol Ring
*1 Sword of War and Peace
*1 Sword of Feast and Famine
*1 Sword of Fire and Ice
*1 Grafted Exoskeleton
*1 Fireshrieker
*1 Mind Stone
*1 Mana Vault
*1 Orzhov Signet
*1 Everflowing Chalice
*1 Blackblade Reforged
*1 Swiftfoot Boots
[/artifacts]
[Instants]
*1 Teferi&#039;s Protection
*1 Anguished Unmaking
*1 Path to Exile
*1 Tainted Strike
*1 Swords to Plowshares
*1 Hatred
*1 Utter End
*1 Return to Dust
[/instants]
[Sorceries]
*1 Ancient Craving
*1 Ambition&#039;s Cost
*1 Austere Command
*1 Read the Bones
*1 Council&#039;s Judgment
*1 Night&#039;s Whisper
*1 Toxic Deluge
*1 Sign in Blood
*1 Open the Vaults
*1 Merciless Eviction
*1 Demonic Tutor
[/sorceries]
[Creatures]
*1 Balan, Wandering Knight
*1 Taj-Nar Swordsmith
*1 Sram, Senior Edificer
*1 Relic Seeker
*1 Stonehewer Giant
*1 Puresteel Paladin
*1 Stoneforge Mystic
*1 Danitha Capashen, Paragon
*1 Heavenly Blademaster
[/creatures]
[Enchantments]
*1 Revel in Riches
*1 Sigarda&#039;s Aid
*1 Wound Reflection
*1 Phyrexian Arena
*1 Duelist&#039;s Heritage
*1 Smothering Tithe
*1 Ethereal Absolution
[/enchantments]"></span></div>


cmc

Too-Specific Top 10 - Equal Value

Superior Numbers - Land Counts