Fire // IceFire // Ice | Art by David Martin & Franz Vohwinkel

Hello, and welcome back to Fire and Ice, a data-driven series where we'll go over some cards that are gaining and losing popularity in various Commander decks. I'm Julia, EDHREC's Duchess of Data.

Of course, EDHREC has a ton of data. Using that data, we'll draw some conclusions about how certain commanders' decks are changing over time, give some insight into how the format's players are thinking about new cards, and maybe even give you some cool tech for your favorite commander's list.

With all that said, let's get right into the action!

For information on how we calculate the Fire and Ice Scores used in this article, check out this writeup.

The Jolly Balloon ManThe Jolly Balloon Man

The Jolly Balloon ManThe Jolly Balloon Man is one of the most interesting cards released in the past year. He’s similar to Kiki-Jiki, Mirror BreakerKiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker, but with an added cost of on his activated ability and no non-legendary target restriction.

This commander’s got a ton of combo potential, with cards like Zealous ConscriptsZealous Conscripts and Coercive RecruiterCoercive Recruiter serving as key tools to go infinite with.

The Jolly Balloon Man is, of course, useful as a value piece too. Creating (and later sacrificing) a copy of Karmic GuideKarmic Guide can provide some nice advantage to a pilot, for example.

The deck does often center around comboing off, so it tracks that Village Bell-RingerVillage Bell-Ringer finds itself in a full 69% of decks. Solemn SimulacrumSolemn Simulacrum is popular too, finding a slot in 81% of decks as a value piece with The Balloon Man.

SkullclampSkullclamp is an easy include too, finding itself in 69% of Jolly Balloon Man decks as a way to turn spare tokens into card draw.

What's Fiery for Jolly Balloon Man Decks?

Now that we’ve got a grasp on what makes up a typical deck for this commander, let’s see what cards are being included in more of its deck lists!

The most Fiery card for The Jolly Balloon Man is Zidane, Tantalus ThiefZidane, Tantalus Thief! This one has a Fire Score of 5.52, and it’s not hard to see why. This card is ThreatenThreaten on a 3/3 body, with upside!

We’ll be gaining life and making treasures as we steal our opponents creatures. This five-drop released recently, but it’s been a favorite of pilots looking to upgrade their decks.

Elspeth, Storm SlayerElspeth, Storm Slayer is rising too, with a Fire Score of 3.69. This planeswalker released this year, and has also been a big hit with Jolly Balloon Man pilots.

It does so many things that a commander deck wants: it creates useful blockers, buffs up a board and provides evasion, and can even remove an opponent’s threat. On top of all that, it’s also a token doubler!

While traditional doublers like Anointed ProcessionAnointed Procession are of course fantastic, Elspeth can provide so much more to brewers that give it a chance.

Surprisingly, Charming ScoundrelCharming Scoundrel has been popular as of late, with a Fire Score of 2.47. It’s not that this Wilds of Eldraine rare isn’t good, far from it, but I had assumed that it would have reached its popularity peak closer to its release.

Nevertheless, this two year old card gives pilots a lot of choices with its ETB ability, something that EDH players love. Much like Solemn SimulacrumSolemn Simulacrum, this creature isn’t flashy but it puts in work. I’m excited to see an older card climbing the ranks!

Some other Fiery cards include Shocking SharpshooterShocking Sharpshooter, a recently released Impact TremorsImpact Tremors variant that’s got a Fire Score of 2.41. Although it’s not quite as efficient as the OG, this new card has the same effect on a copiable body.

That’s a trade off that many Balloon Man pilots are apparently willing to make! Another hot card is Agrus Kos, Eternal SoldierAgrus Kos, Eternal Soldier. This Spirit Soldier’s age hasn’t stopped it from attaining a Fire Score of 2.21.

This Boros ghost can turbo-charge our commander’s activated ability, so it checks out that more and more players are including it in their 99.

There’s two more hot cards for The Jolly Balloon Man, both of which cost ! Renewed SolidarityRenewed Solidarity and Stroke of MidnightStroke of Midnight have become quite popular with Balloon Man pilots, with fire scores of 2.08 and 2.02 respectively.

Renewed Solidarity is crazy strong when paired with our commander, letting us make a permanent 1/1 token copy of whatever creature we want. I’m just surprised that it doesn’t have an even higher score! Stroke of Midnight, on the other hand, is less of a synergistic include.

But, it’s a near-universal piece of removal with very little drawback, so it makes sense that Balloon Man pilots are including it more often.

What's Icy for Jolly Balloon Man Decks?

I’m actually really excited to talk about the Iciest card for this commander, because I’ve been a Chaos WarpChaos Warp hater since the day I was born. This instant’s got an Ice Score of -3.75, and I’m glad that Jolly Balloon Man pilots everywhere are turning away from it.

This removal spell has a place, and that place is in mono-red decks. White provides too much efficient removal to justify Chaos WarpChaos Warp’s inclusion in multicolor decks.

Arabella, Abandoned DollArabella, Abandoned Doll is also losing popularity with an Ice Score of -3.11. While this creature is strong in dedicated token decks, The Jolly Balloon Man is far from that.

This deck leans into making a small number of impactful tokens (or an infinite number of them), and usually shies away from building a large board full of 10+ tokens. While Arabella still provides some value in these decks, she’s stronger in a deck that’s built around her.

Echoing AssaultEchoing Assault is being taken out of Balloon Man decks too, getting an Ice Score of -2.58. While the menace this enchantment provides to our attackers is nice, it’s got two main drawbacks. First, we’ve got to risk a nontoken creature in combat to get its main effect.

And, it costs ! When combined, it’s not hard to see why Echoing Assault isn’t as popular with Jolly Balloon Man brewers as it used to be.

There are three more cold cards for The Jolly Balloon Man: Wear // TearWear // Tear with an Ice Score of -2.45, Star AthleteStar Athlete with an Ice Score of -2.10, and Wall of OmensWall of Omens with an Ice Score of -2.10.

While Wear // Tear is a fantastic removal spell, so much modern Magic design has been putting powerful effects on creatures more frequently, so removal that can't hit creatures is becoming less desirable.

Star Athlete is a very cool design, but it doesn't actually force our opponents to get rid of a permanent we choose. Five damage just isn't enough of a punishment for our opponents to choose to keep a problematic permanent around, and there's better removal available in these colors anyways.

As for Wall of Omens, the card's just not as strong as it used to be. Yes, our commander can makes copies of it to draw extra cards. But, I'd rather copy a Sad Robot anyways!

What's in a Balloon Man Deck?

Now that we've examined what's Hot and what's not for our dearly beloved Balloon Man, let's take a look at a modernized decklist built around him!

Talion, the Kindly LordTalion, the Kindly Lord

Talion is a super powerful commander, seeing play even at the highest rungs of Commander. This card is a great card advantage engine, especially in formats like cEDH where similarly-costed spells are flung around frequently.

Talion can be the head of a Faerie-typal list, or the head of a high-powered control list. Its Hot and Cold cards show a transition from one of these archetypes to another, so let's see what the data says!

First, though, let's see what cards may be in a typical Talion list. Faerie MastermindFaerie Mastermind fits in typal decks and cEDH decks, hence its high 52% inclusion rate. Same goes for Bloodchief AscensionBloodchief Ascension, as its life loss synergies net it a 59% inclusion rate.

More competitive decks tend to include efficient interaction like Force of NegationForce of Negation (which has a 47% inclusion rate), while typal decks include cuter cards like Scion of OonaScion of Oona (which has a 23% inclusion rate).

What's Fiery for Talion Decks?

Copy EnchantmentCopy Enchantment is Talion's highest riser with a Fire Score of 2.56. This is a cEDH meta-call, allowing Talion players to get a Rhystic StudyRhystic Study once another one is on the battlefield.

Rhystic Study, for better or for worse, is a staple of high powered commander. Being able to double up on your own Study, or copy an opponent's, is incredibly strong in Bracket 5.

Borne Upon a WindBorne Upon a Wind is, similarly, a cEDH card, and it's got a a Fire Score of 2.40. The ability to win at instant speed, on top of somebody else's win attempt, is often easier than trying to stop them from winning.

Once your opponents have spent all their interaction trying to prevent each other's victories, you just cast this spell and flash in a Thassa's OracleThassa's Oracle + Demonic ConsultationDemonic Consultation win on top of a full stack.

Snuff OutSnuff Out's Fire Score of 2.42 also tells me that this deck is trending towards higher brackets, as its yet another free piece of interaction that Talion pilots are including in their decks.

While it's not quite as powerful as Deadly RollickDeadly Rollick, this spell is yet another piece of no-cost removal that higher power decks crave.

Two other cards, Wishclaw TalismanWishclaw Talisman (which has a Fire Score of 2.12) and Mistrise VillageMistrise Village (which has a Fire Score of 2.07) are also cEDH staples. Wishclaw is a tried and true tutor, played almost exclusively in higher brackets.

And, although it released recently, Mistrise Village is a fantastic utility land in any deck. SpellskiteSpellskite, interestingly, has the highest Fire Score for Talion decks at 4.14.

This seems more geared towards casual deckbuilding, but I suppose that it can be a useful control piece in competitive decks too!

What's Icy for Talion Decks?

The cold cards here tell a similar story. With 2 of the commander's iciest cards, Faerie SeerFaerie Seer and Tegwyll's ScouringTegwyll's Scouring having Ice Scores of -2.41 and -2.18 respectively.

In a Faerie-typal list these synergistic cards would be great, but they're just not strong enough to make the cEDH cut.

Reanimate, with an Ice Score of -2.40, and Cabal Coffers, with an Ice Score of -2.02, show me that some players may be moving their decks from Bracket 4 to Bracket 5 too. These cards are strong, some of the strongest roleplayers available in all of Magic, but they're not necessarily what Bracket 5 decks are trying to do.

Most cEDH players would rather sub these cards out for cheap countermagic or win cons, so their Ice Scores are reasomable.

What's in a (cEDH) Talion Deck?

Now that we've examined Talion's Fiery and Icy cards, let's see what a deck built around them would look like. As a note, this is a cEDH list from the cEDH Decklist Database that's been modified to include all of Talion's Fiery cards and none of their Icy cards.

Wrapping Up

What do you think of this week's hot and cold pics? Will you be rethinking your Jolly Balloon Man and Talion strategies with these picks? Give us a shout and let us know, and we'll see you next Friday for your next deck data deep dive.