Patron of the Arts - Building Decks with Art Series Cards

Allure of the Unknown - Introducing Hipster Dragon Highlander

Unburden - In Search of a True 100-Card Commander Deck

Saltblast - More from EDHREC's 2022 Salt Vote

Unified Front - Using Data to Find Swappable Commanders

<h6 style="text-align: right;">(<span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Trickster&#039;s Talisman" href="#" target="_blank">Trickster&#039;s Talisman</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> | Illustrated by <a href="https://www.artbysamwhite.com/new-gallery">Sam White</a>)</h6>
<h1>Chaos is a Friend of Mine</h1>
<p>EDH decks are often described as falling along a continuum between consistent/competitive decks and swingy/casual decks, but I'd like to argue that - at least in theory - 'competitive' doesn't have to mean 'consistent'.</p>
<p>I'll use a simulation of a simple game that's not <em>Magic</em>, but is hopefully similar enough to <em>Magic</em> to be relevant. This is a four-player game, in which each player has a 99-card deck, and each card has some numeric value.</p>
<p>At the beginning of each game, players shuffle their decks, and play proceeds by each player, in order, taking a card off the top of their face-down deck and playing it. They score Victory Points equal to the value printed on the card, and the first player to accumulate 100 Victory Points wins.</p>
<p>Now, obviously, this game is different from <em>Magic</em> in many obvious and important ways, but it's similar enough, I assert, to make this a useful exercise. Every <em>Magic</em> deck has cards of greater or lesser quality, and to a large extent, the player who plays the most high-quality cards at the highest rate is most likely to win.</p>
<p>Now, let's say we have four players playing this simple game: Ashiok, Bolas, Chandra, and Dihada. To set a baseline, we'll start off playing a four-way mirror, with the following cards in their 99: <code>3, 2, 3, 8, 3, 3, 2, 3, 1, 6, 3, 1, 3, 6, 4, 4, 5, 8, 3, 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 4, 1, 3, 3, 4, 5, 3, 2, 2, 5, 3, 2, 8, 1, 3, 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 5, 5, 1, 3, 2, 10, 3, 2, 3, 2, 1, 1, 4, 2, 2, 3, 4, 3, 2, 2, 0, 2, 3, 2, 2, 4, 1, 3, 1, 5, 3, 3, 4, 1, 4, 3, 2, 4, 5, 6, 2, 3, 3, 1, 4, 2, 1, 2, 3, 9, 3, 2</code>. That <code>10</code> card is really good, but it's on the Reserved List, so it's very expensive.</p>
<p>The players roll for turn order, shuffle up, and start playing. I'll spare you the details, but it turns out that Ashiok won this first game. They all had so much fun playing that they shuffle up again, and play 99,999 more games. At the end of this series, the final tally is:</p>
<blockquote><p>Ashiok: 25,092 wins<br />
Bolas: 25,086<br />
Chandra: 24,997<br />
Dihada: 24,825</p></blockquote>
<p>Ashiok narrowly edges out the other three, but each player wins very close to one-quarter of the games.</p>
<p>Okay, I know this is all so rudimentary as to be insulting, but I want to set a baseline.</p>
<p>Now consider the same exact scenario, except that Chandra wants to try a new, higher-variance, deck. All of her cards are similar to the cards in everyone else's deck, except they have rules text like:</p>
<blockquote><p>"When you play this card, flip a coin. If you lose the flip, this card's value becomes 0. If you win the flip, this card's value is double the printed value."</p></blockquote>
<p>Or, alternatively, maybe Chandra's deck is a copy of everyone else's deck, except someone has gone through and revalued all of the cards so that half are two times the original value and half are zero times the original value.</p>
<p>So, one realization of Chandra's deck might look like: <code>6, 0, 0, 16, 0, 6, 0, 0, 2, 12, 6, 2, 6, 0, 0, 8, 10, 0, 6, 0, 8, 0, 0, 6, 0, 2, 0, 6, 8, 10, 6, 0, 4, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 10, 0, 0, 6, 0, 20, 6, 4, 6, 0, 2, 2, 8, 4, 0, 0, 0, 6, 4, 0, 0, 4, 0, 4, 4, 0, 2, 0, 2, 10, 6, 6, 8, 0, 8, 0, 4, 8, 10, 12, 0, 0, 6, 2, 0, 0, 2, 4, 6, 18, 0, 4</code>.</p>
<p>Everyone sits down to play another series, and everyone but Chandra plays their original decks. Bolas is inwardly smirking because Chandra has brought a J*nny/T*mmy deck to a table full of Spikes.</p>
<p>In their first game with the new deck, Bolas feels vindicated, as Chandra starts the game with a long string of 0s, causing her to finish a distant last when Ashiok reaches 100 first.</p>
<p>But then the foursome shuffles up and plays another 99,999 games. At the end of the series, Bolas doesn't feel so smug, as the final tally is:</p>
<blockquote><p>Ashiok: 21,227 wins<br />
Bolas: 21,192<br />
Chandra: 36,196<br />
Dihada: 21,385</p></blockquote>
<p>Bolas demands a rematch - or, rather, 100,000 more rematches. The results this time are even more unbalanced in favor of Chandra:</p>
<blockquote><p>Ashiok: 21,313 wins<br />
Bolas: 20,776<br />
Chandra: 38,095<br />
Dihada: 19,816</p></blockquote>
<p>This time, they also notice that the games Chandra wins tend to end earlier than the other players' wins. Now Bolas is starting to feel a tiny bit of self-doubt. He asks Chandra if she would be willing to play Standard. Standard is the same as the basic game, except it's between just two players. Bolas insists that he gets to play the deck he has been playing, while Chandra plays her swingier deck.</p>
<p>They play another 1,000 games head-to-head, and Bolas wins the narrow majority of the games: 503 to 497. Bolas feels vindicated; he's "still got it," and he quits while he's on top.</p>
<p>Chandra is sensitive to Bolas's feelings, so she opts to wait until later to tell him the thing she knew 201,000 games ago: in a four-player game, the odds are stacked against you. In a contest between similarly powerful decks, you're likely to lose about 75% of the time. Of course, with a high-variance deck, you're a little more likely to either Win Big or Lose Big, but it's not like you get more points for a narrow loss than a big loss, so swinging for the fences can really pay off!</p>
<p>The following week, this intrepid quartet is at their LGS, eager to play several hundred-thousand more rounds of their simple game. Then, another customer, Meldon Shenery, stops by their table and teaches them about a game called <em>Magic</em>, with a multiplayer format called EDH. They take to it immediately, as it's an incredibly fun way to exercise your mind while enjoying time with friends.</p>
<p>Chandra's favorite commander?</p>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Krark, the Thumbless"></div></div>
<p>Now reader, I want you to know that this article has been in-process for awhile. I wrote this entire article, including the simulations, prior to <a href="https://twitter.com/MisplayMental/status/1556330647316217858">Ken Baumann winning the Tier1Con</a> playing <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Krark, the Thumbless" href="#" target="_blank">Krark</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> / <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Sakashima of a Thousand Faces" href="#" target="_blank">Sakashima</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>. In fact, I wrote this <em>after</em> the <a href="https://twitter.com/kenlikescarbs/status/1551313728896917505">same player finished the Major League Commander "regular season" with a record of 1-7-2</a>. Such is the nature of variance. However, I do honestly believe that the multiplayer nature of Commander, and the fact that you can't "lose worse", does reward a high-variance strategy, as the simulations above indicate.</p>
<p>What commanders and cards lend themselves to such strategies? Well, the obvious ones are those that favor explicitly random patterns, such as:</p>
<p>Coin-flipping commanders, most of which are in Izzet colors:</p>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Okaun, Eye of Chaos"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Zndrsplt, Eye of Wisdom"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Yusri, Fortune&#039;s Flame"></div></div>
<p>And cards:</p>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Tavern Scoundrel"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Stitch in Time"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Fiery Gambit"></div></div>
<p>Dice-rolling commanders are similarly centered in red, though they're generally less popular. Reasonable options include:</p>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Vrondiss, Rage of Ancients"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Wyll, Blade of Frontiers"></div><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Farideh, Devil&#039;s Chosen"></div></div>
<p>There are a good number of cards for the 99 that either reward dice-rolling or let you manipulate outcomes. I like <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Barbarian Class" href="#" target="_blank">Barbarian Class</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>, <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Netherese Puzzle-Ward" href="#" target="_blank">Netherese Puzzle-Ward</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>, <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Vexing Puzzlebox" href="#" target="_blank">Vexing Puzzlebox</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>, <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Critical Hit" href="#" target="_blank">Critical Hit</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>, <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Brazen Dwarf" href="#" target="_blank">Brazen Dwarf</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>, <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Pixie Guide" href="#" target="_blank">Pixie Guide</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>, and <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Feywild Trickster" href="#" target="_blank">Feywild Trickster</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>.</p>
<p>There are at least two downsides to this genre of deck:</p>
<ol>
<li>They are a little paint-by-numbers. A lot of the commanders and obvious inclusions are of the "whenever you [flip/roll], you get to do [thing]" variety, which feel less exciting to build.</li>
<li>They are s-l-o-w. In an analog world, each coin flip or die roll costs a little bit of time. In a format which already struggles with game length issues, the 7th time you have to chase your die under the table might start to wear on your opponents.</li>
</ol>
<p>With that in mind, my preferred ways to increase variance rely more on the inherent randomness of a shuffled <em>Magic</em> deck. In general, this leads me toward strategies that let me play cards from the top of my library for free, like <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Neera, Wild Mage" href="#" target="_blank">Neera, Wild Mage</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> and <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Yidris, Maelstrom Wielder" href="#" target="_blank">Yidris, Maelstrom Wielder</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>.</p>
<p>More specifically, my favorite swingy card is:</p>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Imoti, Celebrant of Bounty"></div></div>
<p>You're in Simic, so ramp and card draw - the two pillars of EDH - come easily, and Imoti really wants you to pack your deck full of expensive cards, which are the most fun to <em>Cascade</em> off of. My preference is to lean even harder in the high variance direction by <em>Companioning</em> <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Keruga, the Macrosage" href="#" target="_blank">Keruga, the Macrosage</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>.</p>
<p>What this means is that my deck does almost nothing for the first two turns, and then most likely just plays ramp on turn three. On turn four, you should be able to cast Imoti, then start <em>Cascading</em> giant monsters and splashy bombs on turn five. After a couple turns of (hopefully) lucky <em>Cascade</em> flips, refill your hand by playing Keruga.</p>
<p>This deck has a very high probability of failing! You start the game behind and have a bizarre curve, but when it Does The Thing, it really takes off, and when you lose, you lose pretty quickly and you've probably had a lot of fun doing it.</p>
<p>Here is one possible decklist. Note that I also kicked up the novelty factor by making this one <a href="https://edhrec.com/articles/single-combat-hapax-magic-a-true-singleton-format/"><em>Hapax</em></a>!</p>
<div class="edhrecp__deck mtgh"><span class="edhrecp__deck-s" name="Imoti + Keruga: Hapax" site="edhrec" archidekt_link="" cards="[Commander]
*1 Imoti, Celebrant of Bounty
[/Commander]
[Creatures]
*1 Aesi, Tyrant of Gyre Strait
*1 Ancient Stone Idol
*1 Apex Altisaur
*1 Avatar of Growth
*1 Conduit of Ruin
*1 Dawnglade Regent
*1 Etherium Spinner
*1 Gilanra, Caller of Wirewood
*1 Glasspool Mimic
*1 Goreclaw, Terror of Qal Sisma
*1 Gyre Engineer
*1 Impervious Greatwurm
*1 Jadzi, Oracle of Arcavios
*1 Karametra&#039;s Acolyte
*1 Kodama of the East Tree
*1 Kogla, the Titan Ape
*1 Krosan Drover
*1 Llanowar Visionary
*1 Maelstrom Colossus
*1 Nylea, Keen-Eyed
*1 Paleoloth
*1 Rift Sower
*1 Sphinx of the Second Sun
*1 Tangle Golem
*1 Thorn Mammoth
*1 Thryx, the Sudden Storm
*1 Thunderous Snapper
*1 Undercellar Myconid
*1 Vexing Scuttler
*1 World Breaker
[/Creatures]
[Sorceries]
*1 Bala Ged Recovery
*1 Body of Research
*1 Boon of the Wish-Giver
*1 Coastal Breach
*1 Crush of Tentacles
*1 Grow from the Ashes
*1 Mnemonic Deluge
*1 Ranger&#039;s Path
*1 Ravenform
*1 Reshape the Earth
*1 Seasons Past
*1 Seeds of Renewal
*1 Spectral Deluge
*1 Spring // Mind
*1 Turntimber Symbiosis
*1 Verdant Mastery
[/Sorceries]
[Artifacts]
*1 Heraldic Banner
*1 Ingenuity Engine
*1 Kefnet&#039;s Monument
*1 Simic Cluestone
*1 Skyclave Relic
[/Artifacts]
[Instants]
*1 Into the Story
*1 Khalni Ambush
*1 Mental Journey
*1 Release to the Wind
*1 Roiling Regrowth
*1 Scour from Existence
*1 Shared Summons
*1 Silundi Vision
*1 Sublime Epiphany
*1 You Find the Villains&#039; Lair
[/Instants]
[Enchantments]
*1 Omen of the Hunt
[/Enchantments]
[Lands]
*1 Bonders&#039; Enclave
*1 Castle Garenbrig
*16 Forest
*1 Guildless Commons
*12 Island
*1 Quandrix Campus
*1 Rejuvenating Springs
*1 Rimewood Falls
*1 Tanglepool Bridge
*1 Vineglimmer Snarl
*1 Waterlogged Grove
[/Lands]"></span></div>

<p>Here is the <a href="https://archidekt.com/decks/3150354#Imoti_&amp;_Keruga:_Hapax">decklist at Archidekt</a>, if you prefer to see it that way. Check out that mana "curve"!</p>
<hr />
<h2>Thoughts? Questions? Critiques? Suggestions?</h2>
<p>Let me hear them! Is Ashiok and Chandra's card-flipping game too simple to teach us anything about Commander? Did I make a fundamental error in my simulations? Am I just wrong? Or do you agree that variance can be both win-maximizing and fun-maximizing? As always, if you aren’t already, please <a href="https://twitter.com/mtg_ds">follow me on Twitter</a>.</p>


MtGDS

MtGDS

Patron of the Arts - Building Decks with Art Series Cards

Allure of the Unknown - Introducing Hipster Dragon Highlander

Unburden - In Search of a True 100-Card Commander Deck

Saltblast - More from EDHREC's 2022 Salt Vote

Unified Front - Using Data to Find Swappable Commanders

Wild Swing - A Winning Argument for High-Variance Decks

Single Combat - Hapax Magic, a True Singleton Format

The Deck of Many Things: Card Frequencies, By Type and Function, Across EDH

Assembled Alphas: Alphabetizing EDHREC for Fun and Profit

Drawn Together - In Search of Artist Tribal