Teval, Arbiter of VirtueTeval, Arbiter of Virtue | Art by Alexander Ostrowski

A Storm's A' Brewin'

Welcome back to The Over/Under, a series that isn't exactly House of the Dragon, but today, might as well be. We'll be seeing a lot of flying lizards.

Before that, a reminder: This series is all about prognostication. I take every commander from every new set and predict whether it'll go over or under a certain number of decks one year after release.

That number? 1,200. I'll also make one "Can't-Miss Pick," which is usually my most egregious selection if it fails. Next year, we'll check back and see how these predictions fared. Until then, feel free to make some of your own.

So, ready to revisit Tarkir? Me too!

Anafenza, Unyielding Lineage

Everything about this card feels vanilla to me, except for the fact that it is not, in fact, vanilla. All that text certainly does stuff, but none of it feels game-breaking enough to inspire 1,200 deck-builders.

My prediction: Under

Taigam, Master Opportunist

I used to think Suspend was a popular mechanic, but after the pitiful performance of almost all the Suspend cards in Doctor Who, I'm less certain. That's why I consulted my pals Jason and Shane, the official Over/Under Consiglieres, for their takes.

Their takes: Same as mine. Taigam is cool in the 99, but not cool enough to lead 1,200 decks.

Our prediction: Under

Sidisi, Regent of the Mire

Of all the places one could be regent of, "the Mire" sounds like one of the worst. Worse yet, we’ve gotten countless variations on Birthing PodBirthing Pod, and none of them hit.

I mean, I put my faith in Prime Speaker VannifarPrime Speaker Vannifar and she went Under, even back when the line was only 600 decks. Pod is dead, and the Mire certainly ain't bringing it back.

My prediction: Under

Sarkhan, Dragon Ascendant

I appreciate Sarkhan’s appreciation for Dragons, but I’d rather lead my Dragon kindred decks with an actual Dragon. Also, honest question: Has Sarkhan ever been depicted with a shirt on?

The answer: Not since 2014 (and trust me, I checked)

Also, my prediction: Under

Tersa Lightshatter

I know some players enjoy chaos, but this seems excessive. Tersa doesn't even cast your random card for free; you still need to pay for it, unless it's a land, in which case, you're probably disappointed. Also, this is an Orc Wizard, and if an Orc ever became a Wizard, Gandalf would be outraged.

My (and Gandalf's) prediction: Under

Surrak, Elusive Hunter

Speaking of Lord of the Rings, if an opponent targets Surrak with Orcish BowmastersOrcish Bowmasters, it triggers an infinite loop that ends with you decking yourself. If that sounds amusing, by all means, play this as your commander. For all the other non-weirdos out there, this is an Under.

My prediction: See above

Neriv, Crackling Vanguard

Enough with those mono-color schlubs. Now this is the kind of three-color magic I'd expect from Tarkir!

With its three colors, Neriv spots you two tokens. How generous. The more you add from there, the more free cards you stockpile, which should help you find more ways to generate tokens, which draws more cards, and the cycle continues in perpetuity until your opponents either scoop or die to your Orcish BowmastersOrcish Bowmasters trigger because, for some reason, they're running Surrak, Elusive HunterSurrak, Elusive Hunter.

And did I mention Neriv appears in the commander product, which all but guarantees an Over?

My prediction: See above (again)

Neriv, Heart of the Storm

(TSA: You're not seeing double—each spirit dragon and clan leader has both a commander product and base set version. This is the latter.)

(Another TSA: "TSA" stands for "Tarkirian Service Announcement, which I just made up.)

This Neriv is a little less interesting than the last, yet no less unique. The obvious synergy is with cards like Warstorm SurgeWarstorm Surge, though it also boosts Hasty creatures, Mobilize tokens, and every Boomer's favorite mythic uncommon, Flametongue KavuFlametongue Kavu.

My prediction: Over

Zurgo Stormrender

The original Zurgo, Zurgo HelmsmasherZurgo Helmsmasher, has a special place in my helm (and heart). This iteration ain’t bad, either. Instant-speed sac outlets let you choose between drawing and damaging, though either option should prove smashisfactory.

My prediction: Over

Zurgo, Thunder's Decree

History buffs wax poetic about Benjamin Franklin and his electrical experiment with the kite. Little do they know Benny Franks got the idea from Zurgo and his sword.

Beyond his contributions to science, Zurgo is quite the promising commander. His obvious synergy is with Mobilize, since your tokens stick around beyond the end step, yet there are so many more powerful cards that also benefit. A brief list that is totally off the top of my head and not at all stolen from randos on Reddit:

• Jaxis, the TroublemakerJaxis, the Troublemaker
• The Jolly Balloon ManThe Jolly Balloon Man
• Determined IterationDetermined Iteration
• Orthion, Hero of LavabrinkOrthion, Hero of Lavabrink
• Cadric, Soul KindlerCadric, Soul Kindler

You get the idea. When they launch Universes Beyond: American History, I'm sure the Ben Franklin card will synergize with Zurgo, too.

My prediction: Over

Eshki Dragonclaw

It's fairly easy to cast a creature and noncreature prior to attacks, especially in these colors. Yet the juice doesn't seem worth the squeeze, even if the squeeze is easy and the juice is deece. That's why I turned to the Over/Under Consiglieres once again.

They agreed, so I thanked them. This was at 4:47 in the morning, mind you, because I'm a morning person, and I felt bad for pinging them. Sorry, fellas.

Our prediction: Under

Eshki, Temur's Roar

Many players dig big beaters, so anything that incentivizes a big beating should yield big numbers. TSA: Use Colossus HammerColossus Hammer.

My prediction: Over

Ureni of the Unwritten

I doubt this will unseat Miirym, Sentinel WyrmMiirym, Sentinel Wyrm as Temur’s top Dragon commander…but it’ll come pretty darn close. BTW, you are contractually obligated to play Natasha Bedingfield's "Unwritten" when you cast Ureni of the UnwrittenUreni of the Unwritten, so be prepared.

My prediction: You'll feel the rain on your skin!

My non-musical prediction: Over

Ureni, the Song Unending

We've already established the only unending song for Ureni is "Unwritten." But in less flippant news, this is basically Dragonlord AtarkaDragonlord Atarka on steroids (assuming they have steroids on Tarkir).

Problem is, Atarka leads a paltry 125 decks as of the writing of this article. Even with an extra color, improved stats, and protection, I doubt this performs much better. And here I thought steroids were supposed to be performance-enhancing.

My prediction: Under

Betor, Ancestor's Voice

The counters are basically free, assuming Betor has a viable attack. The reanimation bit is harder to turn on, though undeniably powerful with black life-siphoning cards like the infamous Siege RhinoSiege Rhino. Also kinda spicy with the gain/loss bats from Bloomburrow.

My prediction: Over

Betor, Kin to All

It’s impolite to stare at people’s butts—unless you’re Betor, that is, who’s got a whole deck built around fat-bottomed creatures. The untapping ability works best with Vehicles and Mounts, of which we received many from our previous set, Aetherdrift. And drawing cards and halving life totals? That's appealing to everyone, no matter the size of their tuchus.

My prediction: Over

Felothar, Dawn of the Abzan

Look, I'm not saying this effect isn't powerful. We've seen it for more than a decade on Cathars' CrusadeCathars' Crusade, and that card appears in a whopping 138,679 decks. Yet CC's trigger condition is what makes it nuts, since anything generating multiple bodies brings multiple counters.

Felothar, on the other hand, requires you to sacrifice bodies, which you could've added counters to. Granted, you can sac noncreature tokens, like Clues, or stuff that actually wants to be sacrificed, like Ichor WellspringIchor Wellspring. Yet that requires a heck of a lot of setup just to get going. To quote the great Edna Mode, "It's too much, darling. Too much!"

My prediction: Under

Felothar the Steadfast

This is a modernized version of Doran, the Siege TowerDoran, the Siege Tower, a commander that already leads a healthy 5,487 decks and hails from my favorite set, Lorwyn. Furthermore, Toughness Matters gets recycled often (most recently on Plagon, Lord of the BeachPlagon, Lord of the Beach), and it always performs. I think I maxed out my butt jokes on Betor, so we’ll leave it at that.

My prediction: Over

Elsha, Threefold Master

Compared to original Elsha (Elsha of the InfiniteElsha of the Infinite, 4,461 decks), this version is a scrub. I mean, it's basically a souped-up Monastery MentorMonastery Mentor, which might've been impressive if we were playing Modern, like, a decade ago.

My prediction: Under

Narset, Jeskai Waymaster

This is a nutso Storm payoff. And enabler. And who doesn't enjoy drawing cards? Plus, many mechanics reward you for discarding them, such as Delve and Madness. Furthermore, Aetherdrift just presented a whole Limited archetype dedicated to discarding, headlined by Monument to EnduranceMonument to Endurance. Narset? You bet!

My prediction: People are going to roll their eyes at that little rhyme

My other prediction: Over

Shiko and Narset, Unified

And here I thought the team-ups were finished after March of the Machine. Nice to see another!

Still, this is awfully similar to Taigam, Master OpportunistTaigam, Master Opportunist, which is odd to find in the same set (not to mention concerning, since Taigam went Under). However, it’s a powerful effect, and one that could dome opponents out of nowhere with spells like BanefireBanefire. That sounds hilarious—for the non-domed players, at least.

Finally, it's a Commander product commander, which certainly helps.

My prediction: Over

Shiko, Paragon of the Way

The Consiglieres were a lot higher on this card than me, which makes me feel silly in hindsight. I mean, this is basically a cheaper, flying Sun TitanSun Titan that can't get lands, but can cast spells. Combine with flicker effects for optimal bustedness.

Our prediction: Over

Kotis, Sibsig Champion

This seems like a Muldrotha, the GravetideMuldrotha, the Gravetide wannabe cosplaying as Season 3 Jaime Lannister. Why else wear your own severed hand?

My prediction: Under

Kotis, the Fangkeeper

Elderly Magic players will get the reference to an old favorite from original Khans, Villainous WealthVillainous Wealth. That card isn’t nearly as nasty as it used to be, but it's still undeniably fun, especially on an indestructible creature. And there's only one thing more insulting than casting your opponents' own spells against them: Eventually milling them out while you're doing it. Enjoy!

My prediction: Over

Teval, Arbiter of Virtue

Look, I'm not entirely convinced this card is good. You're gated by both graveyard and life, and the life-loss is non-negotiable. But I’m telling you now, I will cast three Eldrazi titans in one turn with this effect for zero mana, and I will exile approximately one billion cards from my graveyard to do it.

Will it kill me? Yes. Will I do it anyway? Hell yes. Will it be glorious? F**k yes.

My prediction: Over (Can't-Miss Pick)

Teval, the Balanced Scale

Regarding the attacking trigger, it's not just a land from among the three you milled—it’s any land sitting in your graveyard. That land will also yield a free zombie, as will Delving, reanimating, Flashbacking, and countless other -ings. Not sure what any of that has to do with balancing scales, but I'm here for it.

My prediction: Over

Recap

Over (15)

1. Neriv, Crackling VanguardNeriv, Crackling Vanguard
2. Neriv, Heart of the StormNeriv, Heart of the Storm
3. Zurgo StormrenderZurgo Stormrender
4. Zurgo, Thunder's DecreeZurgo, Thunder's Decree
5. Eshki, Temur's RoarEshki, Temur's Roar
6. Ureni of the UnwrittenUreni of the Unwritten
7. Betor, Ancestor's VoiceBetor, Ancestor's Voice
8. Betor, Kin to AllBetor, Kin to All
9. Felothar the SteadfastFelothar the Steadfast
10. Narset, Jeskai WaymasterNarset, Jeskai Waymaster
11. Shiko and Narset, UnifiedShiko and Narset, Unified
12. Shiko, Paragon of the WayShiko, Paragon of the Way
13. Kotis, the FangkeeperKotis, the Fangkeeper
14. Teval, Arbiter of VirtueTeval, Arbiter of Virtue (Can't-Miss Pick)
15. Teval, the Balanced ScaleTeval, the Balanced Scale

Under (11)

1. Anafenza, Unyielding LineageAnafenza, Unyielding Lineage
2. Taigam, Master OpportunistTaigam, Master Opportunist
3. Sidisi, Regent of the MireSidisi, Regent of the Mire
4. Sarkhan, Dragon AscendantSarkhan, Dragon Ascendant
5. Tersa LightshatterTersa Lightshatter
6. Surrak, Elusive HunterSurrak, Elusive Hunter
7. Eshki DragonclawEshki Dragonclaw
8. Ureni, the Song UnendingUreni, the Song Unending
9. Felothar, Dawn of the AbzanFelothar, Dawn of the Abzan
10. Elsha, Threefold MasterElsha, Threefold Master
11. Kotis, Sibsig ChampionKotis, Sibsig Champion

That's a fairly small crop of commanders, though that doesn't mean they won't be impactful. If this is anything like our last three-color set, Streets of New Capenna, I expect it to be a helmsmashing hit. I, for one, anticipate making several decks from among these 26. Just be careful with your Teval, Arbiter of VirtueTeval, Arbiter of Virtue. I know I might be.