The Over/Under - Predicting the Popularity of Multicolor Spider-Man Commanders

by
Kyle Massa
Kyle Massa
The Over/Under - Predicting the Popularity of Multicolor Spider-Man Commanders

Venom, Deadly DevourerVenom, Deadly Devourer | Art by Dan dos Santos

Spider-Man 2? Great movie. Spider-Man: Far From Home? Also good. The Amazing Spider-Man 2? Lousy. Let's hope this sequel is better than that one.

Welcome to Part 2 of our Over/Under picks for Spider-Man. Using a line of 1,200 decks made on EDHREC, we'll predict whether each commander will finish "Over" or "Under" that amount in one year's time. In addition, every set gets a "Can't-Miss Pick," which is my most certain selection of the set.

We already covered the set's mono-colored commanders in Part One, so now onward to Part Two...

Sensational Spider-ManSensational Spider-Man

Sensational Spider-Man

They already tried this tapping-matters nonsense in Wilds of Eldraine, and it only worked for Hylda of the Icy CrownHylda of the Icy Crown because she's so darn pushed. Sensational Spider-ManSensational Spider-Man is not, yet he was spoiled so long ago I'm willing to sensationalize this pick.

My prediction: Over

SP//dr, Piloted by PeniSP//dr, Piloted by Peni

SP//dr, Piloted by Peni

I think somebody spilled coffee on the keyboard when typing this name. Still, this effect doesn't seem half bad, especially when considering its versatility. Equipment, Auras, and counters are plentiful in these colors, and rewarding players for building around any (or all of them) seems promising.

My prediction: Over

Spider-Woman, Stunning SaviorSpider-Woman, Stunning Savior

Spider-Woman, Stunning Savior

Spider-Woman here is similar to Thalia, Heretic CatharThalia, Heretic Cathar with access to blue. That's significant, but probably not significant enough, since Thalia helms just 323 decks.

My prediction: Under

Sun-Spider, Nimble WebberSun-Spider, Nimble Webber

Sun-Spider, Nimble Webber

This intrigues me as a Secret Commander commander, the idea being you build around a card that isn't technically eligible to be your commander. (Think Zur the EnchanterZur the Enchanter and Astral SlideAstral Slide.) With Sun-Spider, one could build around classic Equipment, like Colossus HammerColossus Hammer, or Auras, like Overwhelming SplendorOverwhelming Splendor. Or why not Curses?

A bit of a long shot, but I'm willing to risk it, since (spoiler) Part 1 had a lot of Unders already.

My prediction: Over

Wraith, Vicious VigilanteWraith, Vicious Vigilante

Wraith, Vicious Vigilante

I could craft several inappropriate jokes from the phrase "fear gas," but I'll spare you. Suffice it to say we don't get many totally unblockable commanders, let alone those with double strike, and this double-strikes me as a potent Voltron option.

My prediction: Over

Doc Ock, Evil InventorDoc Ock, Evil Inventor

Doc Ock, Evil Inventor

When this card dropped in March, everyone was angry Doc Ock was neither an Octopus nor a Doctor. I'm just angry with his haircut.

His ability is a little better than it might look at first blush, since it doesn't expire at turn's end. Still, seven mana is steep, especially for a commander that takes several turns to gather momentum.

My prediction: Under

Doctor Octopus, Master PlannerDoctor Octopus, Master Planner

Doctor Octopus, Master Planner

If you missed me railing against Villains in Part 1, here are the cliff notes: I doubt a type exclusive to a controversial set will become popular enough to buoy this eight-limbed boi.

My prediction: Under

Morbius the Living VampireMorbius the Living Vampire

Morbius the Living Vampire

I tried watching the Morbius movie. I really did. But I had to tap out before he even said, "It's Morbin' time." That movie was truly awful, and this card isn't much better.

My prediction: Under

Prowler, Clawed ThiefProwler, Clawed Thief

Prowler, Clawed Thief

I'm glad Sony never made a movie about this dude, because it might've been even worse than Morbius.

My prediction: Under

Superior Spider-ManSuperior Spider-Man

Superior Spider-Man

I've researched the lore behind this iteration of Spider-Man, and let me just tell you, things get weird. It only follows that the MTG adaptation is also weird, since he can become pretty much whatever you want using Buried AliveBuried Alive. Jin-Gitaxias, Core AugurJin-Gitaxias, Core Augur? Archon of CrueltyArchon of Cruelty? Your opponent's Birds of ParadiseBirds of Paradise, just to troll them? The choice is yours.

My prediction: Over

Symbiote Spider-ManSymbiote Spider-Man

Symbiote Spider-Man

This is a sweet top-down design, although I'm dubious of its effectiveness as a commander. You must cast it, sac it, then pay extra mana just for a counter and a turbo-OphidianOphidian effect. Feels like this symbiotic juice isn't worth the squeeze—and you probably shouldn't be squeezing symbiotes to begin with.

My prediction: Under

Vulture, Scheming ScavengerVulture, Scheming Scavenger

Vulture, Scheming Scavenger

I really hope I'm right about my Villains take, because if not, my prediction percentage is going to suffer.

My prediction: Under

Carnage, Crimson ChaosCarnage, Crimson Chaos

Carnage, Crimson Chaos

Carnage and Grist would get along great, since both are yucky looking. But here's what isn't yucky: This rules text. It compares favorably to a Alesha, Who Smiles at DeathAlesha, Who Smiles at Death, a commander that leads 6,067 decks, as of this writing. Furthermore, Carnage is a classic Spider-Man villain, which can’t hurt... unless you sat through Venom: Let There Be Carnage, which was pretty lousy.

My prediction: Over

Green Goblin, NemesisGreen Goblin, Nemesis

Green Goblin, Nemesis

Goblins are EDHREC's 7th most popular creature type, so that's a point in this gobbo's favor. Another: Seismic AssaultSeismic Assault turns any lands in hand into Moxen plus free ShockShocks. Yet another: he's played by Willem Dafoe.

My prediction: Over

Green Goblin, RevenantGreen Goblin, Revenant

Green Goblin, Revenant

Here's hoping this revenant doesn't get mauled by a bear. I'm looking forward to adding him to my Anje FalkenrathAnje Falkenrath deck, but otherwise, not much reason to run this guy.

My prediction: Under

Scarlet Spider, KaineScarlet Spider, Kaine

Scarlet Spider, Kaine

Considering there are common commanders in this set, I'm surprised this made it to uncommon.

My prediction: Under

Shriek, TreblemakerShriek, Treblemaker

Shriek, Treblemaker

Oh god, a pun. And the rules text on this card is somehow worse.

My prediction: Ahhhhhhh! (In Other Words, Under)

Ultimate Green GoblinUltimate Green Goblin

Ultimate Green Goblin

I like free Treasure, but not at the cost of a card per turn.

My prediction: Under

Kraven, Proud PredatorKraven, Proud Predator

Kraven, Proud Predator

This is worse than the Kraven movie, which is really saying something. And I'm sorry for referencing all these movies... it's just my only frame of reference.

My prediction: Under

Rhino, Barreling BruteRhino, Barreling Brute

Rhino, Barreling Brute

This guy was in that Kraven movie, too, right?

My prediction: Under by Association

Scarlet Spider, Ben ReillyScarlet Spider, Ben Reilly

Scarlet Spider, Ben Reilly

Now this card intrigues me. If you cast a one-drop and Web-sling Scarlet Spider on turn two, you've got a 5/4. Or try cheating in fatties using Sneak AttackSneak Attack for even more counters. There's something brewing here, and I like it.

My prediction: Over

Mary Jane WatsonMary Jane Watson

Mary Jane Watson

Only once per turn? Seriously? We were afraid that Spider kindred, of all creature types, might get out of hand?

My prediction: Under

Silk, Web WeaverSilk, Web Weaver

Silk, Web Weaver

Free tokens are nice, but they'll take too long to accumulate, and that anthem effect is way too over-costed.

My prediction: Under

Spider-Girl, Legacy HeroSpider-Girl, Legacy Hero

Spider-Girl, Legacy Hero

Clever flavor here, but it doesn't translate to a playable commander.

My prediction: Under

Spider-Man IndiaSpider-Man India

Spider-Man India

You pretty much only want to Web-sling this commander, which is already an issue. Add to that an underwhelming aggressive effect and you've got yourself an Under.

My prediction: See above

Mister NegativeMister Negative

Mister Negative

This artwork hurts my eyes, but Mister Negative's effect will certainly hurt your opponents. This is probably just personal bias, but I've been hunting for a commander to lead a TriskaidekaphobiaTriskaidekaphobia deck. I think I've found that commander.

My prediction: Over

The Spot, Living PortalThe Spot, Living Portal

The Spot, Living Portal

Hats off to Bastien Grivet for this artwork, which is easily my favorite of the set. If only the card itself was better, since this is little more than an expensive Banisher PriestBanisher Priest.

My prediction: Under

Spider-Man 2099Spider-Man 2099

Spider-Man 2099

If anyone reading this article is still alive in 2099, I'm sure they're enjoying Return to Return to Return to Return to Ravnica. They’ll be enjoying this commander, too, since he's quite potent. The casting limitation is a downside, albeit flavorful, yet Spider-Man 2099Spider-Man 2099 is still plenty powerful on turn four onward, especially since subsequent re-castings will be so cheap, even with commander tax. Furthermore, playing him from the command zone triggers his own damage-dealing ability. The future is bright with this one.

My prediction: Over

Kraven the HunterKraven the Hunter

Kraven the Hunter

Flavorful? Certainly. Worse than so many other amazing commander options in Golgari? Also certainly.

My prediction: Certainly Under

Venom, Deadly DevourerVenom, Deadly Devourer

Venom, Deadly Devourer

*Venom voice*: EDDIE! WE'RE ON A MAGIC CARD!

They were also the stars of three big-budget movies, but we all know which is the bigger accomplishment. Since Venom was spoiled so early, people have had months to brew this Symbiote already, and I think that extra time will come in clutch. Golgari butts-matter, here we come!

My prediction: Over

Araña, Heart of the SpiderAraña, Heart of the Spider

Araña, Heart of the Spider

We already know Boros Equipment is a big-time player in the Commander metagame. Araña plays great in that archetype, not to mention with Auras, along with the free +1/+1 counters she provides.

My prediction: Over

Jackal, Genius GeneticistJackal, Genius Geneticist

Jackal, Genius Geneticist

This is a sweet design that's giving Birthing PodBirthing Pod vibes, since you go up the chain as you cast better and better creatures. Jackal appreciates populate cards in green and clones in blue, both of which are plentiful. I know I'm going to mistake him for Green Goblin, but other than that, I've got no qualms with this commander.

My prediction: Over

Norman OsbornNorman Osborn

Norman Osborn

Conniving on the front side loads your graveyard for the back side, which is sweet. Also, the Goblin's graveyard cost reduction works with flashback, retrace, and his own mayhem, which is even better. Finally, he's something of a scientist himself, and we all know that's best of all.

My prediction: Over

Eddie BrockEddie Brock

Eddie Brock

This card is pure upside. Free one-drop from the 'yard on the front, and an even better value engine on the back. You'd probably play either individually, but together, they are Venom, and they are nasty.

My prediction: Over

Miles MoralesMiles Morales

Miles Morales

Are we spider-sensing a pattern here? These double-faced legends are super powerful. Miles is no exception, mostly because he's basically half of Doubling SeasonDoubling Season on his back side. That effect could be game-breaking paired with Shalai and HallarShalai and Hallar, Hamza, Guardian of ArashinHamza, Guardian of Arashin, and a plethora of other cards. Excellent commander here.

My prediction: Over

Peter ParkerPeter Parker

Peter Parker

Poor Peter does next-to-nothing on his front side, aside from getting bitten and doing math. His back side is far more appealing, since you can cheat in massive threats like Koma, Cosmos SerpentKoma, Cosmos Serpent. How does an armless serpent web-sling through the skyscrapers of Manhattan? I have no idea, and neither do the designers at Wizards, but that's not the point. The point is, it's sweet.

Furthermore, you can also use the back side to re-trigger enters- and leaves-the-battlefield effects, like those on ThragtuskThragtusk. I'm so jazzed about this commander that I'll be building him myself—and that means just 1,199 decks to go. What could possibly go wrong?

My prediction: Over (Can't-Miss Pick)

Gwen StacyGwen Stacy

Gwen Stacy

Gwen's a two-for-one on the front and a many-more-for-one on the back. I'm no expert, but that sounds good. What's even better is the whole playing-from-exile thing, which synergizes with countless red Impulse draw spells, not to mention numerous recent mechanics such as warp, plot, foretell, and Adventure. So long as she's not plummeting to her death, Gwen's going to be a menace.

My prediction: Over

Cosmic Spider-ManCosmic Spider-Man

Cosmic Spider-Man

He gives Spiders flying, first strike, trample, lifelink, and haste, yes. But what about reach?

Silly in-jokes notwithstanding, five-color commanders always go Over, even when they're fairly niche, like this one. This set gave us approximately a hundred new Spiders to play with, and lest you forget Giant SpiderGiant Spider, I'm here to remind you.

My prediction: Over

Iron Spider, Stark UpgradeIron Spider, Stark Upgrade

Iron Spider, Stark Upgrade

Steel OverseerSteel Overseer from the command zone with card advantage built-in, eh? This Stark guy does good work.

My prediction: Over

Living Brain, Mechanical MarvelLiving Brain, Mechanical Marvel

Living Brain, Mechanical Marvel

Hill GiantHill Giant that turns your spare artifacts into another Hill GiantHill Giant, eh? Wish Stark could've worked on this one.

My prediction: Under

Spider-Slayer, Hatred HonedSpider-Slayer, Hatred Honed

Spider-Slayer, Hatred Honed

If you play in a playgroup overrun by Spiders, you've found your answer. For the rest of the world, feel free to forget this card ever existed.

My prediction: Under

Recap

Over (20)

  1. Sensational Spider-ManSensational Spider-Man
  2. SP//dr, Piloted by PeniSP//dr, Piloted by Peni
  3. Sun-Spider, Nimble WebberSun-Spider, Nimble Webber
  4. Wraith, Vicious VigilanteWraith, Vicious Vigilante
  5. Superior Spider-ManSuperior Spider-Man
  6. Carnage, Crimson ChaosCarnage, Crimson Chaos
  7. Green Goblin, NemesisGreen Goblin, Nemesis
  8. Scarlet Spider, Ben ReillyScarlet Spider, Ben Reilly
  9. Mister NegativeMister Negative
  10. Spider-Man 2099Spider-Man 2099
  11. Venom, Deadly DevourerVenom, Deadly Devourer
  12. Araña, Heart of the SpiderAraña, Heart of the Spider
  13. Jackal, Genius GeneticistJackal, Genius Geneticist
  14. Norman OsbornNorman Osborn
  15. Eddie BrockEddie Brock
  16. Miles MoralesMiles Morales
  17. Peter ParkerPeter Parker
  18. Gwen StacyGwen Stacy
  19. Cosmic Spider-ManCosmic Spider-Man
  20. Iron Spider, Stark UpgradeIron Spider, Stark Upgrade

Under (21)

  1. Spider-Woman, Stunning SaviorSpider-Woman, Stunning Savior
  2. Doc Ock, Evil InventorDoc Ock, Evil Inventor
  3. Doctor Octopus, Master PlannerDoctor Octopus, Master Planner
  4. Morbius the Living VampireMorbius the Living Vampire
  5. Prowler, Clawed ThiefProwler, Clawed Thief
  6. Symbiote Spider-ManSymbiote Spider-Man
  7. Vulture, Scheming ScavengerVulture, Scheming Scavenger
  8. Green Goblin, RevenantGreen Goblin, Revenant
  9. Scarlet Spider, KaineScarlet Spider, Kaine
  10. Shriek, TreblemakerShriek, Treblemaker
  11. Ultimate Green GoblinUltimate Green Goblin
  12. Kraven, Proud PredatorKraven, Proud Predator
  13. Rhino, Barreling BruteRhino, Barreling Brute
  14. Mary Jane WatsonMary Jane Watson
  15. Silk, Web WeaverSilk, Web Weaver
  16. Spider-Girl, Legacy HeroSpider-Girl, Legacy Hero
  17. Spider-Man IndiaSpider-Man India
  18. The Spot, Living PortalThe Spot, Living Portal
  19. Kraven the HunterKraven the Hunter
  20. Living Brain, Mechanical MarvelLiving Brain, Mechanical Marvel
  21. Spider-Slayer, Hatred HonedSpider-Slayer, Hatred Honed

There you have it. 93 commanders later and we're finished with our Spider-Man predictions. That's somehow fewer than Lord of the Rings and Final Fantasy, but still, it's a lot. Sentiment for those two sets certainly felt higher than for this one, hence the lower ratio of Overs to Unders here, so we'll see what happens.

Until then, remember what Uncle Ben told Peter before he died. Something about power and responsibility and stuff. I'm sure it wasn't anything important.

Kyle Massa

Kyle Massa


Kyle A. Massa is a writer and avid Magic player living somewhere in upstate New York with his wife, their daughter, and three wild animals. His current favorite card is Ulalek, Fused Atrocity.

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