The Over/Under - Predicting the Popularity of Lord of the Rings Commanders
Art by Magali Villeneuve
You Shall Be The Fellowship of The Cards
Hope you've had your second breakfast, reader. We're in for a long one.
In the Over/Under series, we predict the popularity of new commanders. If we think a commander will lead more than 1200 decks, it gets an "Over," or an "Under" for fewer. One year from the release date, we'll check our work. There's also a Can't-Miss Pick each set, which is like a lock in betting. If I sound terse in my evaluations for this article, it's because we have 85 commanders to cover (WTF, Wizards?).
Let's begin our quest with...
Bill the Pony
Though Bill offers some cute synergies, commanders like Arcades, the Strategist already do this effect better. No wonder the Fellowship sent him home early.
My prediction: Under
Boromir, Warden of the Tower
Fitting that a character played by Sean Bean does his best work by dying. The free-spell counter clause is also good, but not good enough to make Boromir anything more than Selfless Spirit.
My prediction: Under
Éowyn, Lady of Rohan
With the slew of quality Equipment commanders of late, I think there's simply too much competition for Éowyn here. No wonder Aragorn friend-zoned her.
My prediction: Under
Faramir, Field Commander
Faramir would have higher quality as an Aristocrats commander if he was touching black. In mono-white, consistent sacrifices are too hard to orchestrate.
My prediction: Under
Frodo, Determined Hero
Auto-equipping Blackblade Reforged is fun... but is it good enough to be your commander?
My determination: Under
Gandalf the White
This is basically a better version of Elesh Norn, Mother of Machines, and Elesh already commands 3557 decks.
My prediction: Over
Gandalf, White Rider
Gandalf should've had Phasing, because his defining characteristic is disappearing at inopportune times (especially in The Hobbit). Instead, Gandalf, White Rider supports go-wide Storm, which isn't really a thing, and probably won't become one.
My prediction: Under
Landroval, Horizon Witness
Why didn't the Fellowship fly eagles into Mordor? Because they didn't have two or more attackers. Seriously though, this card is common power-level.
My prediction: Under
Rosie Cotton of South Lane
I hope the hobbit children in this picture tip well, because I don't think Rosie's getting much more work. While a counter per token is nice, it's not nearly enough to earn 1200 decks.
My prediction: Under
Samwise the Stouthearted
I'm glad there are multiple versions of every character, because this isn't the Sam we need.
My prediction: Under
Saradoc, Master of Buckland
I just re-read the books and I still can't remember this character. Whoever he is, he's a decent go-wide enabler, though getting a high-powered attacker with lifelink isn't much of a payoff.
My prediction: Under
Bill Ferny, Bree Swindler
I have four words for you: mono-blue Horse tribal.
My prediction: Under
Elrond, Lord of Rivendell
I'm not tempted by the scrying (or the Tempting).
My prediction: Under
Gandalf, Friend of the Shire
Casting sorceries at instant speed is a niche benefit, and drawing a card per Tempt is whatever.
My prediction: Under
Goldberry, River-Daughter
Mrs. Bombadil is capable of some zany stuff. A few examples:
- Repeat- or turbo-triggering Sagas
- Redistributing loyalty amongst planeswalkers
- Reducing Cumulative Upkeep costs
Is any of this impactful? Not sure. But it is fun, and I'm sure there are far more applications.
My prediction: Over
Ioreth of the Healing House
Picture this: you copy Ioreth with Sakashima of a Thousand Faces, then pull Reveka, Wizard Savant out of your shoe box to deal infinite damage. I'm sold.
My prediction: Over
Meneldor, Swift Savior
It's like Brago, King Eternal, only worse.
My prediction: Under
Saruman the White
Love the flavor, but Amass isn't the most exciting build-around mechanic. RIP Christopher Lee.
My prediction: Under
The Watcher in the Water
How the heck do you consistently draw cards on opponents' turns? Consecrated Sphinx, Mind's Eye, and Faerie Mastermind are all I can come up with. Without them, The Watcher just watches. I suppose you could sacrifice a bunch of Changelings, but that hardly seems feasible.
My prediction: Under
Gollum, Patient Plotter
Love the creature type, hate the rest. Could be interesting in an Aristocrats shell, but otherwise, I’m off it.
My prediction: Under
Gollum, Scheming Guide
This card will add a solid 10 minutes to most EDH games while people mull over whether or not they're being bamboozled. Still, it's such a unique mini-game that I think it'll earn quite a few fans.
My prediction: Over
Gorbag of Minas Morgul
Gorbag has always been my favorite orc, solely because of his name (Shagrat is a close second). Unfortunately, I don't think he'll earn the same respect from the EDH community. Mono-black sac Goblins/Orcs seems like a tough sell.
My prediction: Under
Gothmog, Morgul Lieutenant
This Gothmog is way better-looking than the one in the movies. However, he's not much a commander, since deathtouch is more annoying than impactful.
My prediction: Under
Gríma Wormtongue
Pro tip: don't hire a guy named "Wormtongue" to be your advisor—or commander, for that matter.
My prediction: Under
Lobelia Sackville-Baggins
Another flavor hit that can be plenty powerful under the right circumstances. If only those circumstances weren't so narrow.
My prediction: Under
Sauron, the Necromancer
The mana value, color, stats, and effect all remind me of Drana, the Last Bloodchief, a card which leads a paltry 212 decks.
My prediction: Under
Witch-king, Bringer of Ruin
How does the Witch-king feel about gender reveal parties? Do the words "It's a girl!" make him fear for his life?
I suppose we'll never know. All I know is, this is an understatted, overcosted Wraith that does nothing when it enters the battlefield.
My prediction: Under
Witch-king of Angmar
This version of the Witch-king deters aggression, encourages temptation, and even sticks around with an indestructible trigger. Much better.
My prediction: Over
Éomer, Marshal of Rohan
If you want this effect, you're already running Aurelia, the Warleader.
My prediction: Under
Éomer of the Riddermark
Risking your fatty in combat just to create a 1/1 is nobody's idea of fun.
My prediction: Under
Erkenbrand, Lord of Westfold
Designed for Draft, and not especially good there, either. P.S. Where the F was Gondor when the Westfold fell?
My prediction: Under
Gimli, Counter of Kills
If your Aristocrats opponents are paying zero attention to your side of the board, this card's great. Otherwise, it's vastly underpowered.
My prediction: Under
Glóin, Dwarf Emissary
Treasure and goad are basically evergreen at this point, so combining them seems like a recipe for success. Plus, with Erratic Portal, Rograkh, Son of Rohgahh, and Purphoros, God of the Forge, you've got an insta-win.
My prediction: Over
Grishnákh, Brash Instigator
Players like Threaten effects, but do they like them enough to play a three-mana 1/1 that's only good with extra Amass support? I think not.
My prediction: Under
Celeborn the Wise
The closest comparison I can think of is Eligeth, Crossroads Augur, who leads a respectable 2616 decks. However, those are Partner decks, which I suspect is padding the stats. Also, scrying is far more plentiful in blue than green.
My prediction: Under
Elanor Gardner
This is excellent flavor, but ramp has diminishing returns in the late game.
My prediction: Under
Fangorn, Tree Shepherd
Seven mana is expensive, but the payoff is undeniably sweet, especially if you've built out a board of big Ents—I mean, Treefolk. Whenever I cast this, I'll be saying, "Break the dam...release the river!" And I will not be apologizing.
My prediction: Over
Galadriel, Gift-Giver
Gimli wanted a single golden hair, but these options are much better.
My prediction: Over
Glorfindel, Dauntless Rescuer
What is this, 2003? Power creep laughs at this card.
My prediction: Under
Legolas, Master Archer
A neat little build-around, especially with cantrips, auras, and counter synergies. You have my bow.
My prediction: Over
Meriadoc Brandybuck
Sean Bean died for this guy?
My prediction: Under
Peregrin Took
Turning Food into cards for zero mana is delicious, especially with this set's plentiful Food synergies.
My prediction: Over
Quickbeam, Upstart Ent
Raw stats rarely pull big numbers, even for Ents.
My prediction: Under
Radagast the Brown
Reminds me of Volo, Guide to Monsters (and not just because it's from a non-Magic IP). Should lead to some interesting deckbuilding, not to mention copious card-drawing.
My prediction: Over
Faramir, Prince of Ithilien
Three tokens is a lot, and a free card ain't bad, either. His dad might loath him, but the locals adore him. I suspect EDH players will, too.
My prediction: Over
Gwaihir the Windlord
Giving vigilance to Birds is like giving a book to an Orc—there's very little upside.
My prediction: Under
Pippin, Guard of the Citadel
Pippin annoys Gandalf, and he'll annoy your opponents, too. I call that good flavor. Sure, he's a lightning rod for removal, but at two mana, he's easy to re-cast (and re-annoy).
My prediction: Over
Prince Imrahil the Fair
No wonder they cut this guy from the movies.
My prediction: Under
Sharkey, Tyrant of the Shire
Sharkey's usefulness is directly proportional to the ruthlessness of your opponents; if they run Strip Mine, they're getting Strip Mined. Still, after browsing EDHREC's top Utility Lands, I'm not seeing anything particularly broken.
My prediction: Under
The Mouth of Sauron
Way too conditional—and mouthy.
My prediction: Under
Mauhúr, Uruk-hai Captain
Clearly an Amass payoff, but I doubt the mechanic will gain upwards of 1200 fans (unless you really like eating Man’s-flesh).
My prediction: Under
Sauron, the Lidless Eye
A little underwhelming for the Dark Lord himself, but still plenty powerful, especially with free sac outlets. I just hope he packed eye drops.
My prediction: Over
Shagrat, Loot Bearer
I'm still not sold on Amass, but players dig Equipment, and this is one of the few commanders who supports that theme in Rakdos.
My prediction: Over
The Balrog, Durin's Bane
With Ashnod's Altar and/or fetch lands, you can fairly easily cast this guy for two mana. From there, you get a hasty, hard-to-block attacker that takes only three swings to kill via commander damage, plus a legit death trigger.
My prediction: Over
The Balrog, Flame of Udûn
A five-mana 7/7 trampler? Yes. Easily tucked if an opposing commander/ringbearer dies? Heck no.
My prediction: Under
Uglúk of the White Hand
Uglúk's banner is about the size of a napkin, and I don't think his following will be much larger.
My prediction: Under
Gimli, Mournful Avenger
Gruul Aristocrats isn't exactly a name-brand archetype, so this might be a cool way to jumpstart it. Three's a lot, but when you can kill almost any creature for free, it's worth it.
My prediction: Over
Strider, Ranger of the North
Don't worry—there are better versions of Aragorn in this set.
My prediction: Under
Aragorn and Arwen, Wed
If you got an invite to the wedding, I hope you spell their name right on the check. Other than that, I've got no concerns for this happy couple. They're a clean and powerful Selesnya pair that should be easy and fun to build around.
My prediction: Over
Aragorn, Company Leader
A unique commander that gets out of control with Proliferate, ability counters, Modified bonuses, and so much more. Viggo Mortensen would approve.
My prediction: Over
Arwen, Mortal Queen
Exchanging indestructible for lifelink and a counter seems fiddly at best. Liv Tyler would not approve.
My prediction: Under
Butterbur, Bree Innkeeper
Butterbur provides consistent—yet never outstanding—service. I give him 2.5 stars on Yelp.
My prediction: Under
Frodo Baggins
Because when you have a 1/3, you really want people to block it.
My prediction: Under
Samwise Gamgee
Samwise Gamgee, Childcare Provider is similar to Peregrin Took, yet I'd rather draw a card than return a Historic card. Still, I think he's just useful enough to earn 1200 fans.
My prediction: Over
Denethor, Ruling Steward
Don't let him near the cherry tomatoes.
My prediction: Under
Frodo, Sauron's Bane
There never was much hope of this card actually one-shotting someone. Just a fool's hope.
My prediction: Under
King of the Oathbreakers
A compelling alternative to Millicent, Restless Revenant for Spirit tribal enthusiasts. Just don't send your ghost army home before the war's actually over.
My prediction: Over
Lotho, Corrupt Shirriff
This guy needs to learn to spell. Still, he's potent with stuff like Marionette Master, Disciple of the Vault, and Bennie Bracks, Zoologist.
My prediction: Over
Bilbo, Retired Burglar
The Ring might tempt me, but Bilbo doesn't.
My prediction: Under
Gandalf the Grey
You'll want to pack some blink effects to reset this value machine. Just keep him away from narrow bridges.
My prediction: Over
Old Man Willow
This tree is great at killing hobbits, which is about the only compliment I can give it.
My prediction: Under
Shelob, Child of Ungoliant
Instantly the best Spider tribal commander we've ever had. I was hoping there'd be an Ungoliant card so I could say "Shelob's mom has got it goin' on," but I guess this will have to do.
My prediction: Over (Can't Miss Pick!)
Sméagol, Helpful Guide
We be nice to them if they be nice to us! Problem is, Ring-tempting and land-sealing aren't nice enough to earn 1200.
My prediction: Under
Éowyn, Fearless Knight
If you've built a big enough board of legends, Éowyn feels like she'll end her fair share of games.
My prediction: Over
Merry, Esquire of Rohan
I never thought I'd say this, but there are better ways to draw cards in Boros.
My prediction: Under
Shadowfax, Lord of Horses
The inside joke alone is worth the Over.
My prediction: Over
Théoden, King of Rohan
Théoden delivers a great speech, but he's not much an EDH commander.
My prediction: Under
Arwen Undómiel
Scry tribal seems unlikely to gain popularity, no matter how much they're pushing it in this set.
My prediction: Under
Elrond, Master of Healing
This is better, but still doesn't strike me as popular. I don't want to play Augury Owl. Do you?
My prediction: Under
Galadriel of Lothlórien
I'm telling you, it's not happening—even if you get to ramp!
My prediction: Under
Legolas, Counter of Kills
See above.
My prediction: Under
Saruman of Many Colors
I had to read this card roughly 10 times to fully understand it. Now that I do, I'm in.
My prediction: Over
Sauron, the Dark Lord
I'm not into Amass, but when you get it for free, plus Tempting, plus card draw, it's tough to say no.
My prediction: Over
Aragorn, the Uniter
Four-color commanders are rare, and this one is especially sweet. He just couldn't wait to be king.
My prediction: Over
Tom Bombadil
They cut him from the movie, but few will cut him from their decks.
My prediction: Over
Recap
Over (29)
- Gandalf the White
- Goldberry, River-Daughter
- Ioreth of the Healing House
- Gollum, Scheming Guide
- Witch-king of Angmar
- Glóin, Dwarf Emissary
- Fangorn, Tree Shepherd
- Galadriel, Gift-Giver
- Legolas, Master Archer
- Peregrin Took
- Radagast the Brown
- Faramir, Prince of Ithilien
- Pippin, Guard of the Citadel
- Sauron, the Lidless Eye
- Shagrat, Loot Bearer
- The Balrog, Durin's Bane
- Gimli, Mournful Avenger
- Aragorn and Arwen, Wed
- Aragorn, Company Leader
- Samwise Gamgee
- King of the Oathbreakers
- Lotho, Corrupt Shirriff
- Gandalf the Grey
- Éowyn, Fearless Knight
- Shadowfax, Lord of Horses
- Saruman of Many Colors
- Sauron, the Dark Lord
- Aragorn, the Uniter
- Tom Bombadil
Under (55)
- Bill the Pony
- Boromir, Warden of the Tower
- Éowyn, Lady of Rohan
- Faramir, Field Commander
- Frodo, Determined Hero
- Gandalf, White Rider
- Landroval, Horizon Witness
- Rosie Cotton of South Lane
- Samwise the Stouthearted
- Saradoc, Master of Buckland
- Bill Ferny, Bree Swindler
- Elrond, Lord of Rivendell
- Gandalf, Friend of the Shire
- Meneldor, Swift Savior
- Saruman the White
- The Watcher in the Water
- Gollum, Patient Plotter
- Gorbag of Minas Morgul
- Gothmog, Morgul Lieutenant
- Gríma Wormtongue
- Lobelia Sackville-Baggins
- Sauron, the Necromancer
- Witch-king, Bringer of Ruin
- Éomer, Marshal of Rohan
- Éomer of the Riddermark
- Erkenbrand, Lord of Westfold
- Gimli, Counter of Kills
- Grishnákh, Brash Instigator
- Celeborn the Wise
- Elanor Gardner
- Glorfindel, Dauntless Rescuer
- Meriadoc Brandybuck
- Quickbeam, Upstart Ent
- Gwaihir the Windlord
- Prince Imrahil the Fair
- Sharkey, Tyrant of the Shire
- The Mouth of Sauron
- Mauhúr, Uruk-hai Captain
- The Balrog, Flame of Udûn
- Uglúk of the White Hand
- Strider, Ranger of the North
- Arwen, Mortal Queen
- Butterbur, Bree Innkeeper
- Frodo Baggins
- Denethor, Ruling Steward
- Frodo, Sauron's Bane
- Bilbo, Retired Burglar
- Old Man Willow
- Sméagol, Helpful Guide
- Merry, Esquire of Rohan
- Théoden, King of Rohan
- Arwen Undómiel
- Elrond, Master of Healing
- Galadriel of Lothlórien
- Legolas, Counter of Kills
Can't-Miss Pick
If you made it this far, you've made it through the longest Over/Under article of all time.
...And we're not even done yet! Come back for the Commander product commanders next.
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