(Kiora, the Rising Tide | Art by Magali Villeneuve // Kellan, Planar Trailblazer | Art by Zoltan Boros)

Pretty Much Still a Core Set

Hello there, reader, and welcome back to another edition of The Over/Under. In this series, I predict how popular new commanders will become after one year of existence. I've set the line at 1,200 decks, so if I think a commander will surpass that mark, it gets an "Over," and if I think it'll fail spectacularly, it gets an "Under." There's also one "Can't-Miss Pick," which is my surest selection.

Ready to see what Foundations has in store? Let's begin.

Arahbo, the First Fang

Cats are less popular than you'd think in Magic—or maybe I just think that because I'm a cat person. Looking at the Cats kindred page, we see that Rin and Seri, Inseparable lead the way with 12,150 decks.

However, that hardly counts since it's half-dog, so we'll proceed to the next one, which is, funnily enough, the original Arahbo. Problem is, Eminence is so overpowered that it's tough to gauge what's pushing the numbers: The keyword or the type.

That leaves us with Ajani, Nacatl Pariah, which is pretty clearly a cat build-around, yet only boasts 649 decks. Ajani is clearly more powerful than Arahbo, which is why I think we're looking at...

My prediction: Under

Brigone, Soldier of Meletis

EDHREC only has five Heroic decks on its All Tags page, and even the similar Valiant ability from Bloomburrow hasn't done much better. Good soldier, lousy commander.

My prediction: Under

Psemilla, Meletian Poet

"Green-white enchantments go Over. Always"

Is it tacky to quote yourself? Probably, but I've been doing it too long to stop now. The above sentence was written by me in my Wilds of Eldraine review, when three Enchantment commanders all went Over. Psemilla may be mono-white instead of Selesnya, and he may have a name that's really hard to pronounce, but I still think I should respect the trend.

My prediction: Over

Qala, Ajani's Pridemate

Ajani's Pridemate—not Qala, just actual, original Ajani's Pridemate—is a semi-classic card that appears in 25,756 decks. That's actually not stellar for a non-commander creature, and even with additional abilities and better stats, Qala won't fare much better as a commander.

My prediction: Under

Thurid, Mare of Destiny

If you play this commander, you're signing up to play junk like Shield Mare. And though I was shocked to see Shadowfax, Lord of Horses perform so poorly as a Horse commander, I'm expecting the addition of Pegasi and Unicorns to push this one over the Over.

My prediction: Over

Urdnan, Dromoka Warrior

This guy looks tough, but he's quite similar to Kwende, Pride of Femeref, a commander who only leads 474 decks.

My prediction: Under

Cynette, Jelly Drover

I have a hunch that, since this is designed as a beginner set and flying is one of the coolest keywords for beginners—or veterans, for that matter—Cynette will perform better than it might appear.

My prediction: Over

Kiora, the Rising Tide

The last time we saw Kiora as a commander was Kiora, Sovereign of the Deep from March of the Machine: The Aftermath. I predicted an Over for that version and got it right, so I'll run it back here. I think being a popular character combined with a nostalgic throwback to Threshold should be enough.

My prediction: Over

Neerdiv, Devious Diver

Wow, this card is kinda nuts. It's asking you to mill yourself so you can cast stuff from your graveyard, but I kind of doubt most players will. Instead, I think they'll slap a Colossus Hammer on this thing and try to mill people out. Or maybe that's just what I would do...

At any rate, Neerdiv offers several options for deck builders—all of them awesome.

My prediction: Over (Can't-Miss Pick)

Pol Jamaar, Illusionist

I wasn't wild about a six-mana Distant Melody—until I read Distant Melody's stats. Turns out that card appears in 117,776 decks, which is good for 5% overall. Pretty good for a four-mana conditional card draw spell, and even better when you staple a 4/5 flyer onto that for just two extra mana.

My prediction: Over

Fumulus, the Infestation

Insect, Leech, Slug, and Worm sounds like an itemized list of critters you'd least like to find crawling around your home. Nevertheless, I suspect Fumulus will infest many EDH tables in the year to come. I mean, it's the perfect home for everyone's favorite rare-turned-common, Mortician Beetle. What more could you ask for?

My prediction: Over

Nazar, the Velvet Fang

I'd rather rack up feeding counters at the buffet, thank you very much.

My prediction: Under

Ozox, the Clattering King

This is a fun design, but not even the best legendary skeleton in the set. We'll get to that one later, but for now...

My prediction: Under

Rev, Tithe Extractor

This style of commander has been done to death, in my opinion, yet whether it's Xanathar, Guild Kingpin or Gonti, Lord of Luxury, they always seem to perform well. Rev should be no exception.

My prediction: Over

Tinybones, Bauble Burglar

As little thieving skeletons go, Tinybones is always popular. His past two incarnations, Tinybones, Trinket Thief and Tinybones, the Pickpocket, have earned 5,091 decks and 1,539 decks, respectively. Though this design is quite similar to the first two, I think its whimsical aesthetic, combined with a lower rarity, will make it another hit.

My prediction: Over

Zul Ashur, Lich Lord

Zombies are the game's fourth most popular creature type, so points for that right away. Furthermore, this effect gets super annoying with cards like Accursed Marauder and Fleshbag Marauder, plus really anything that says "Zombie" in the type line. Sounds like an Over to me.

My prediction: Over

Anep, Vizier of Hazoret

If you roll up with this as your commander, I'd have to assume you lost a bet.

My prediction: Under

Cleon, Merry Champion

That flavor text sounds like the ravings of a psychopath, but the card itself is kind of intriguing. It reminds me of Feather, the Redeemed, who's been Boros's most popular commander ever since its printing five years ago. With Cleon, one might try chaining a bunch of spells together to win with a big finish. Still probably not a hit, but that does sound fun.

My prediction: A Hesitant Under

General Kreat, the Boltbringer

When I saw this was an uncommon commander from a starter set, I was ready to give it an easy Under. But then, fortunately for you, dear reader, I actually read it. And you know what? This card is actually pretty good.

The Goblin generation ability is nice since it doesn't need to be Kreat itself that's attacking. Yet the real draw for this card is that second paragraph, which is way more powerful than it appears, since Goblins swarm faster than my mom's seven cats to their food dishes.

My prediction: Over

Gornog, the Red Reaper

As we all know, "cowards can't block Warriors" isn't just a pithy saying—it's a pillar of psychological understanding. And when your Warriors can create Cowards merely by attacking, that's got to make psychologists everywhere nod and say, "Told you so." Also, it's the third time they've printed this text on a card, and the first on a commander. My guess is, that's all it'll take.

My prediction: Over

Ivora, Insatiable Heir

Blood tokens debuted in Innistrad: Crimson Vow. While they're useful trinkets, there's little evidence to suggest they produce popular commanders. Strefan, Maurer Progenitor leads a whopping 5,765 decks, it's true. But the set's other Blood-based commanders, Anje, Maid of Dishonor and Odric, Blood-Cursed, lead just 1,200 and 348 decks, respectively—and that's three years after the set's release.

My prediction: Under

Kellan, Planar Trailblazer

In the span of two years, we've gotten five Kellans. That's almost as many versions as Niv-Mizzet, which is kind of nuts considering there's yet another Niv-Mizzet in this very set (we'll get to him soon). Here's how those other Kellans have fared so far...

1. Kellan, the Fae-Blooded - 2,382 decks
2. Kellan, Daring Traveler - 222 decks
3. Kellan, Inquisitive Prodigy - 329 decks
4. Kellan, the Kid - 3,438 decks

That 50-50 split in popularity makes this pick tricky. However, after careful consideration (and a fresh cup of coffee, because I'm feeling a little sleepy), I've come to a decision: This looks more like a red-aggro beater designed for Standard, not so much a commander card. Therefore...

My prediction: Under

Braulios of Pheres Band

If it's bands we're talking, I'd rather listen to Nickelback—which is really saying something.

My prediction: Under

Dionus, Elvish Archdruid

If it has "Elf" in its type line, it probably produces mana, meaning Dionus here makes it even better. Vehicles work well with it, too, as do deathtouch creatures equipped with Viridian Longbow. That's all pretty promising for an uncommon commander.

My prediction: Over

Loot, Exuberant Explorer

Loot seems like a character specifically designed to be sold as a Funko Pop doll. Though its original incarnation, Loot, the Key to Everything, boasts an impressive 3,070 decks, this version has two fewer colors and a lot less promise. Paying six mana for an activated ability that will miss, and miss more often than you'd like, sounds like a terrible deal to me.

My prediction: Under

Shroofus Sproutsire

Fun fact that you will probably hear/read from several other content sources over the next week or two: This is Magic's first nontoken Saproling. It also happens to be horrendous without augmentation, though that's easy enough to find with whatever auras and/or equipment you can find in your collection. Plus, the more Saprolings you generate, the more likely you can go wider around your opponents' blockers, which gives you more Saprolings. Finally, his name is "Shroofus," which has to count for something.

My prediction: Over

Sutina, Speaker of the Tajuru

Sutina is doing her best Solemn Simulacrum impression, but she's clearly not solemn enough.

My prediction: Under

Kykar, Zephyr Awakener

Kykar, Wind's Fury was a smash hit at 10,169 decks. This version, however, feels far less focused. Noncreature spells, blinking, and token-generation don't sound like a pleasant mix to me—and this is coming from someone who once mixed shrimp, bacon, and feta cheese into an omelet.

My prediction: Under

Alesha, Who Laughs at Fate

"Oh fate," Alesha laughed. "You crack me up!" Then she reanimated Accursed Marauder and forced you to sacrifice yet another creature. [Cue the laugh track.]

If the above scenario sounds annoying, that's because it is. It might also sound familiar, since this Alesha is very similar to Alesha, Who Smiles at Death, the ninth most popular Mardu commander ever. In some ways this is better, in others worse, but either way, Alesha should be laughing all the way to the Over.

My prediction: Over

Plagon, Lord of the Beach

The real Lord of the Beach is David Hasselhoff, whom I don't recall having a big butt. Plagon, however, is all about the big butts.

The last time we saw this type of effect was on The Pride of Hull Clade, and that card boasts a healthy 2,066 decks. Plagon's probably a little worse, but considering the success of similar commanders like Arcades, the Strategist (16,117 decks), it seems promising. In the words of the immortal Nicki Minaj, let's go to the beach, beach, let's go to the beach.

My prediction: Over

Taeko, the Patient Avalanche

Hmm, I wonder what type pairs best with Taeko here. Turtles, probably. It's not like blue-black Ninjas would benefit from leaving the battlefield without dying, or becoming unblockable. And surely they didn't call this a "Turtle Ninja" in reference to Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, a property that will surely enter the Universes Beyond pantheon sooner rather than later. Right? Right?

My prediction: Over

Evereth, Viceroy of Plunder

Rakdos sacrifice is a tried-and-true archetype in EDH, and Evereth should be no exception. Not only does she sac things for free—you can sac Evereth herself for potentially massive damage, which also might happen to have lifelink. Let's just hope she fares better than that Viceroy from the Trade Federation.

My prediction: Over

Slinza, the Spiked Stampede

Tawnos, the Toymaker, Radagast, Wizard of Wilds, and Kaheera, the Orphanguard are the only other commanders that specifically reference Beasts. Despite that, there are 2,310 Beasts kindred decks, which suggests there could be more, given the right commander. I think Slinza is that commander.

My prediction: Over

Hurska Sweet-Tooth

Hurska appears to be some advanced species of Care Bear. You'd think that would make it popular, yet I'm not so sure. After all, big chunks of lifegain often come from lifelink, which triggers after combat, making Hurska's boosts unusable. Conversely, passive lifegain is often just a point or two, which isn't enough of a boost for most attackers.

Halloween is over, Hurska. Time to put away the sweets.

My prediction: Under

Elenda, Saint of Dusk

This card might as well be called Elenda, Saint of Winmore. If your life total is 10 above starting, you're probably doing pretty well for yourself already. Also, pure lifegain isn't as great as it seems, since it doesn't actually win you the game. I'd rather bet on the New Orleans Saints than this Saint, and they're 2-7.

My prediction: Under

Niv-Mizzet, Visionary

Look, I love Niv-Mizzet, but even I can admit this is getting ridiculous. This is now the seventh version of this guy that's been printed, and three of those printings have come within the past two years. At this rate, by 2030, Niv will have his own tab in the Kindred section.

But here's the funny part: There's no Niv-Mizzet fatigue amongst players. This character has gone Over every time he's appeared, and with the ability to draw cards via noncombat damage, it's going to happen again here. I mean, he turns your Lightning Bolt into Ancestral Recall. What could be cooler than that?

My prediction: Over

Aphelia, Viper Whisperer

Deathtouch is annoying. A bunch of deathtouching tokens is really annoying. A bunch of deathtouching tokens that cost you half your life when they bite you? Now that's annoying enough to earn an Over.

My prediction: Over

Koma, World-Eater

Like most of the legends we've seen from Foundations, this version of Koma isn't necessarily better or worse than its original—it's just different. There's a possibility that many deckbuilders might just add this Koma to their existing Koma, Cosmos Serpent decks, thereby reducing the potential new decks here. Though I believe that will happen to some extent, I still think Koma, World-Eater is splashy enough to earn some serious interest.

My prediction: Over

Zimone, Paradox Sculptor

Zimone is strikingly similar to Byrke, Long Ear of the Law from Bloomburrow. I gave that rabbit an Over, yet it's accumulated just 444 cards so far. Not great.

Still, I'm ready to be wrong again. After all, Zimone costs two less mana than Byrke and distributes counters for zilch, not to mention she's in a more desirable color combination. Here goes nothing...

My prediction: Over

Recap

Over (23)

1. Psemilla, Meletian Poet
2. Thurid, Mare of Destiny
3. Cynette, Jelly Drover
4. Kiora, the Rising Tide
5. Neerdiv, Devious Diver (Can't-Miss Pick)
6. Pol Jamaar, Illusionist
7. Fumulus, the Infestation
8. Rev, Tithe Extractor
9. Tinybones, Bauble Burglar
10. Zul Ashur, Lich Lord
11. General Kreat, the Boltbringer
12. Gornog, the Red Reaper
13. Dionus, Elvish Archdruid
14. Shroofus Sproutsire
15. Alesha, Who Laughs at Fate
16. Plagon, Lord of the Beach
17. Taeko, the Patient Avalanche
18. Evereth, Viceroy of Plunder
19. Slinza, the Spiked Stampede
20. Niv-Mizzet, Visionary
21. Koma, World-Eater
22. Zimone, Paradox Sculptor
23. Aphelia, Viper Whisperer

Under (16)

1. Arahbo, the First Fang
2. Brigone, Soldier of Meletis
3. Qala, Ajani's Pridemate
4. Urdnan, Dromoka Warrior
5. Nazar, the Velvet Fang
6. Ozox, the Clattering King
7. Anep, Vizier of Hazoret
8. Cleon, Merry Champion
9. Ivora, Insatiable Heir
10. Kellan, Planar Trailblazer
11. Braulios of Pheres Band
12. Loot, Exuberant Explorer
13. Sutina, Speaker of the Tajuru
14. Kykar, Zephyr Awakener
15. Hurska Sweet-Tooth
16. Elenda, Saint of Dusk

Some promising commanders in here. We'll see how they fare in the year to come!