(Rex, Cyber-HoundRex, Cyber-Hound | Art by Jeremy Paillotin)

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You Had Me at Robot Dogs

We're on a streak of Universes Beyond IPs I know nothing about. Wake me up when they release an X-Files set.

That said, Fallout does look primed for an Over/Under treatment. In this series, I speculate on how popular new commanders will become one year after they're printed. The line is 1,200 decks, so "Over" means I'm predicting the commander will lead more than 1,200 decks in a year, while an "Under" means fewer. I'll also give out one Can't-Miss Pick, which is my guarantee of the set.

Ready to delve into...wherever it is we are? Just think of the radiation like a worldwide tanning booth!

Aradesh, the FounderAradesh, the Founder

Is this guy the founder of the robot dogs? Wait, nope, he's just a warlord.

Well, there's not much to compare him to, since he's the game's only commander with Enlist. However, I can't imagine a keyword mostly designed for limited play would become popular in EDH.

My prediction: Under

Codsworth, Handy HelperCodsworth, Handy Helper

This is a lot of value for three mana, and Equipment usually pulls numbers. Problem is, we've got a dearth of similar commanders, most of which are Boros, which allows access to an additional color.

My prediction: Under

Commander Sofia DaguerreCommander Sofia Daguerre

Fun flavor, but don't let Sofia's title fool you—she won't be your commander.

My prediction: Under

Overseer of Vault 76Overseer of Vault 76

This lady looks eerily similar to my kindergarten teacher, and let me tell you, she was scary. Still, this Overseer is basically just a delayed anthem, which won't scare your opponents much at all.

My prediction: Under

Paladin Danse, Steel MaverickPaladin Danse, Steel Maverick

I doubt many players will be excited by Selfless SpiritSelfless Spirit in the command zone.

My prediction: Under

Sierra, Nuka's Biggest FanSierra, Nuka's Biggest Fan

I shudder to think what "The Nuka-Cola Challenge" entails. I'm guessing it ends in diabetes, or maybe just an Under, since making Food and boosting stats seems neither powerful nor interesting.

My prediction: Under

Yes Man, Personal SecuritronYes Man, Personal Securitron

You might laugh, but donation commanders actually perform fairly well. Inniaz, the Gale ForceInniaz, the Gale Force, Jon Irenicus, Shattered OneJon Irenicus, Shattered One, Khârn the BetrayerKhârn the Betrayer, Zedruu the GreatheartedZedruu the Greathearted...all these commanders are in the quadruple digits. You could even make a pact with an opponent to trade Yes Man back and forth, giving you both two cards a turn. I like the sound of that.

My prediction: Over

Curie, Emergent IntelligenceCurie, Emergent Intelligence

If this artwork is to be believed, the future iteration of Chat GPT won't just write your essays—it'll lock you inside a container. But will it also become your commander?

I was leaning toward no, but for validation, I texted my official Over/Under consiglieres, Shane and Jason, a.k.a. two of my best buddies from college. (If you don't know what "consigliere" means, you're not Italian.) I could've asked Chat GPT itself, but I like Shane and Jason much better. Unless they're beating me in EDH, in which case, they're dead to me.

Ultimately, they agreed on the Under. And unlike Yes Man, they aren't just yes men, as you'll soon see.

Our prediction: Under

James, Wandering DadJames, Wandering Dad

As we saw with Curie, all the mono-blue commanders in this set basically just draw cards in different ways. James here does just that, only he's also an absentee father.

My prediction: Under

Jason Bright, Glowing ProphetJason Bright, Glowing Prophet

"Come Fly With Me," eh? Is that a Sinatra reference? Is this guy Sinatra's reanimated mutant corpse performing under a pseudonym?

If it is, he's lost his touch. The power-different-from-base-power thing is clunky enough, and the payoff isn't even there. When Frank said "the best is yet to come," I don't think this is what he had in mind.

My prediction: Under

Nick Valentine, Private EyeNick Valentine, Private Eye

I wouldn't hire this creepy guy for anything, except maybe if I was a farmer in need of a scarecrow. I'm not and I don't, and I fail to see how minor evasion and a sub-par death trigger should change that.

My prediction: Under

Piper Wright, Publick ReporterPiper Wright, Publick Reporter

Wait a second, I thought Murders at Karlov Manor was the Clue spinoff set. Now we've got two investigators in a row, on top of all the others we already have. Too much competition.

My prediction: Under

Butch DeLoria, Tunnel SnakeButch DeLoria, Tunnel Snake

They took an awfully literal interpretation with this one, and I'm not sure it's working. Seems difficult to construct a mono-black deck from only Rogues and Snakes, even if you can make more of the latter. When it comes to street gangs, I like the Sharks and Jets better.

My prediction: Under

Hancock, Ghoulish MayorHancock, Ghoulish Mayor

This ghoul seems like he'd be right at home on Innistrad, hat included. Though most mono-black counter-stacking cares about Vampires rather than Zombies, Hancock still has several options, including The OzolithThe Ozolith, Andúril, Narsil ReforgedAndúril, Narsil Reforged, and even Unexpected FangsUnexpected Fangs. Note that he counts all counters, not just +1/+1s. You've got my vote, Hancock.

My prediction: Over

Duchess, Wayward TavernkeepDuchess, Wayward Tavernkeep

Seems like a lot of work for some literal Junk.

My prediction: Under

Ian the RecklessIan the Reckless

If randos on the internet can be believed, giving Ian lifelink makes his self-damage trigger heal you rather than harm you. That's easy enough to do with Equipment like BatterskullBatterskull and Loxodon WarhammerLoxodon Warhammer, which is cool and all, but seems less like a legit strategy and more like a meme.

My prediction: Under

Rose, Cutthroat RaiderRose, Cutthroat Raider

Rose here is giving me Tymna the WeaverTymna the Weaver vibes, only she doesn't cost life, and she also ramps. Might have to add this robot to my Commander Cube.

My prediction: Over

The Motherlode, ExcavatorThe Motherlode, Excavator

I choose to see the best in people, so I refuse to believe that 1200 EDH players would run a land-destruction commander. That's just evil.

My prediction: Under

Veronica, Dissident ScribeVeronica, Dissident Scribe

Reminds me of Urza, Powerstone ProdigyUrza, Powerstone Prodigy, a card that went way below the mark, even when the line was 600.

My prediction: Under

Harold and Bob, First NumensHarold and Bob, First Numens

The first Newman was Wayne Knight, not Harold or Bob, but whatever. Two rad counters per activation add up quick, especially if you're untapping your buffed Forest with Arbor ElfArbor Elf like I'm guessing you'd like to. And is such a deck even interested in self-milling? I just don't see it.

My prediction: Under

Lily Bowen, Raging GrandmaLily Bowen, Raging Grandma

If this is Grandma, I wonder what the grandchildren look like. I also wonder how often Lily will survive three turns, because that's how long it takes to take full effect. I'm guessing that's too long.

But did I say that would make an Under? I think not! This card is so weird and whacky on so many levels it's bound to be popular. If your grandma looked like Thanos, you'd give her an Over, too.

My prediction: Over

Strong, the Brutish ThespianStrong, the Brutish Thespian

If he's talking to a skull, Strong here has the wrong Shakespeare play—but maybe that's all part of the joke. Anyway, he's less a thespian and more a linebacker, with burly base stats and an even better Enrage trigger. Though it may be risky, you might even build around rad counters.

My prediction: Over

Arcade GannonArcade Gannon

He's basically Muldrotha, the GravetideMuldrotha, the Gravetide, if Muldrotha took forever to get going and only worked with humans and artifacts.

My prediction: Under

Elder Owyn LyonsElder Owyn Lyons

Elder Owyn is so old he's still using the rebel control display from Star Wars. He's also little better than a GravediggerGravedigger for artifacts.

My prediction: Under

Rex, Cyber-HoundRex, Cyber-Hound

People go really hard on the whole "adopt, don't shop" thing with dogs, though in this world, I suppose the new slogan is "built, no guilt." The real crux of the card is energy, though, and to my knowledge, nothing rhymes with "energy."

The trick is slipping Rex through enemy lines, though in blue-white, that shouldn't be difficult. At worst Rex is a zero-mana form of graveyard hate, and at best he's an activated ability combo machine. Good doggy.

My prediction: Over

Raul, Trouble ShooterRaul, Trouble Shooter

This feels like what Arcade GannonArcade Gannon wanted to be, only here it actually works. Kind of odd that it mills everyone even when Raul can only cast your stuff, but whatever. This is still a potent commander, especially when combined with cost-free self-mill such as Deranged AssistantDeranged Assistant and Stinkweed ImpStinkweed Imp.

My prediction: Over

Kellogg, Dangerous MindKellogg, Dangerous Mind

Is this guy the founder of the cereal company? If so, remind me to eat less Special K.

This card seems immensely annoying to play against, especially since black and red are probably the best treasure-making colors around. Kellogg might compete with the uber-popular Prosper, Tome-BoundProsper, Tome-Bound, but there should be enough decks to go around.

My prediction: Over

Legate Lanius, Caesar's AceLegate Lanius, Caesar's Ace

What is this, an algebra quiz? Calculating one tenth of each board seems annoying, though I'll admit, the payoff is there. Playing this against any go-wide commander should be utterly devastating, and if you can blink it, it gets even meaner.

My prediction: Over

Cait, Cage BrawlerCait, Cage Brawler

This was another job for the consiglieres, and here they were split. As the deciding vote, I opted for the Over, since I like Cait's potential with stuff like Sword of the AnimistSword of the Animist, plus her likelihood to discard the biggest stuff thanks to her color identity.

Our prediction: Over

Colonel AutumnColonel Autumn

As a potent metaphor for the 1%, this guy lets your richest creatures exploit the lowliest for gain and profit. Orzhov legends has already proven to be a viable archetype with Ratadrabik of UrborgRatadrabik of Urborg, and the Colonel here feels distinct enough to generate his own decks.

My prediction: Over

Elder Arthur MaxsonElder Arthur Maxson

Torens, Fist of the AngelsTorens, Fist of the Angels is one of the few other commanders with Training and he went Over, which is a good sign for Arthur here. Imagine, for example, casting Lingering SoulsLingering Souls into this. Yes, please.

My prediction: Over

MacCready, Lamplight MayorMacCready, Lamplight Mayor

And here we have the answer to Colonel AutumnColonel Autumn...MacCready here is looking out for the little guy. Great with tokens, great with saboteurs, and great against any big creature deck. Forget Hancock—I'm voting for this mayor instead.

My prediction: Over

Red Death, ShipwreckerRed Death, Shipwrecker

This was the third of four commanders I ran by the consiglieres. We all recognized the meme potential, but decided it was too low-impact to become a bigtime commander. And though I didn't ask, I suspect that if any of us saw this thing at Joe's Crab Shack, we'd have to leave.

Our prediction: Under

Shaun, Father of SynthsShaun, Father of Synths

I think "Synthdaddy" would've made a better title for this card, but oh well. There's little else to improve upon, especially if you're copying stuff like Drakuseth, Maw of FlamesDrakuseth, Maw of Flames or Torbran, Thane of Red FellTorbran, Thane of Red Fell.

My prediction: Over

Agent Frank HorriganAgent Frank Horrigan

When I hear the name "Frank Horrigan," I picture a retired Irish cop from Boston, not this guy. Disappointment aside, he's still a sweet commander. Frank's massive, he can't die in combat, and his double proliferate works wonders with all sorts of Golgari cards, including Winding ConstrictorWinding Constrictor, Ochre JellyOchre Jelly, and all those Slime Against HumanitySlime Against Humanitys you pulled at your prerelease.

My prediction: Over

Cass, Hand of VengeanceCass, Hand of Vengeance

This ability feels more like an insurance plan than a legitimate archetype. And in a post-apocalyptic setting, the last thing I'm worried about is my insurance.

My prediction: Under

Craig Boone, Novac GuardCraig Boone, Novac Guard

This is a lot of text that adds up to very little impact. Flavorful, I'm sure, but flavor alone can't save this dude (or his baby).

My prediction: Under

Desdemona, Freedom's EdgeDesdemona, Freedom's Edge

Desdemona is spicy with any small and/or artifact creature that sacs itself for profit. My personal favorite would be Mogg FanaticMogg Fanatic, but I'm sure you'll find your own.

My prediction: Over

Moira Brown, Guide AuthorMoira Brown, Guide Author

Speaking as someone who owns too many books, they tend to accumulate faster than you realize. That's what will happen with Moira. Since her Wasteland Survival Guides aren't legendary, you can blink her to generate additional copies, thereby making your creatures stronger and stronger. Unlike me, those are books you won't be donating to the library.

My prediction: Over

Paladin Elizabeth TaggerdyPaladin Elizabeth Taggerdy

This reminds me of Kaalia of the VastKaalia of the Vast, only for little creatures instead of creature types. That said, augmenting Elizabeth with power-boosting Equipment (Wasteland Survival Guide, anyone?) can yield even bigger attackers. Seems like a quintessential Boros commander to me.

My prediction: Over

Sentinel Sarah LyonsSentinel Sarah Lyons

This is the commander for anyone who feels Osgir, the ReconstructorOsgir, the Reconstructor isn't aggressive enough. She's frequently going to pump your team, and if you're packing all artifacts, that Battalion trigger will deal massive damage.

My prediction: Over

Three Dog, Galaxy News DJThree Dog, Galaxy News DJ

Based on his name, I'm assuming this guy only plays Three Dog Night songs, which I'm okay with. I'm also okay with copying cantripping auras attached to him, or any that work better in multiples, such as Ethereal ArmorEthereal Armor. Fortunately, there are plenty of each to go around. Talk about joy to the world.

My prediction: Over

Marcus, Mutant MayorMarcus, Mutant Mayor

Man, this mayoral race is really heating up. It was so close, in fact, I had to consult my consiglieres one last time. I was initially leaning Over, but Jason and Shane noted that a five-mana 4/4 isn't that impressive these days, and getting those initial counters is a bottleneck on your card draw. Guess I'm still voting MacCready for mayor.

Our prediction: Under

Dogmeat, Ever LoyalDogmeat, Ever Loyal

"Dogmeat" is a rather ominous name for a canine, though I suppose it's acceptable on a three-mana 3/3 that often replaces itself, then adds value on each attack. Not a wildly powerful commander here, but certainly solid.

P.S. If my dog was ever off-leash in a post-apocalyptic setting, she'd never stand this still.

My prediction: Over

Preston Garvey, MinutemanPreston Garvey, Minuteman

This guy is sweet with Lotus FieldLotus Field, Oran-Rief, the VastwoodOran-Rief, the Vastwood, and, if you can afford it, Gaea's CradleGaea's Cradle. He even works with other enchanted permanents, not just lands, meaning you get double activations on stuff like Splinter TwinSplinter Twin.

My prediction: Over (Can't-Miss Pick!)

Caesar, Legion's EmperorCaesar, Legion's Emperor

According to the Fallout Wiki, this guy's real name is Edward Sallow. If that was my name, I'd change it to Caesar, too.

Like Julius and Octavius before him, this Caesar isn't opposed to sacrificing some plebs, especially with three payoffs to choose from. I like how the first builds your board, the second digs for answers, and the third closes the game. Who needs mayors when you've got an emperor?

My prediction: Over

Mr. House, President and CEOMr. House, President and CEO

The scene depicted in this image is a clear HR violation, though we won't dwell on that. Instead, we'll focus on Yahtzee.

Well, technically it's not Yahtzee, since you'll be rolling at most four dice, not five. Still, that's a lot, especially when every six-roll gets you another free shot at more Robots. Combine with Wyll, Blade of FrontiersWyll, Blade of Frontiers, Barbarian ClassBarbarian Class, and any card that rolls d20s for maximum profit.

My prediction: Over

Dr. Madison LiDr. Madison Li

Temur used to be the go-to energy color combo, but this doctor single-handedly shifts that paradigm. Yes, you'll need to play artifacts, but you're probably doing that anyway thanks to cards like Aethersphere HarvesterAethersphere Harvester, Multiform WonderMultiform Wonder, and Decoction ModuleDecoction Module. Good stuff, Doc.

My prediction: Over

Liberty Prime, RechargedLiberty Prime, Recharged

Hard to argue with a five-mana 8/8 packing three relevant keywords and an easy way to generate extra value.

My prediction: Over

The Master, TranscendentThe Master, Transcendent

Well this is gross. It's also a better version of The MimeoplasmThe Mimeoplasm. It's also going to directly compete with Raul, Trouble ShooterRaul, Trouble Shooter since it's essentially doing the same thing, only with access to green. It's also gross. Did I mention that it's gross?

My prediction: Gross—I mean, Over

The Wise MothmanThe Wise Mothman

I consider myself a cryptozoologist because I've watched a lot of MonsterQuest. Impressive, I know. What's even more impressive is how fast The Wise MothmanThe Wise Mothman will accelerate the pace of the game. Whether it's via mill or life loss, players are going to be dropping like flies—or moths, as it were. Meanwhile, you'll be pumping your team with a counter per nonland card milled by anybody at any time. In Sultai, that sounds irresistible.

My prediction: Over

ED-E, Lonesome EyebotED-E, Lonesome Eyebot

I don't know if this is some beloved Fallout character or something, but if it is, they've done him dirty. Probably pretty good in a Desdemona, Freedom's EdgeDesdemona, Freedom's Edge deck, but otherwise, I'm not interested.

My prediction: Under

Recap

Over (27)

1. Yes Man, Personal SecuritronYes Man, Personal Securitron
2. Hancock, Ghoulish MayorHancock, Ghoulish Mayor
3. Rose, Cutthroat RaiderRose, Cutthroat Raider
4. Lily Bowen, Raging GrandmaLily Bowen, Raging Grandma
5. Strong, the Brutish ThespianStrong, the Brutish Thespian
6. Rex, Cyber-HoundRex, Cyber-Hound
7. Raul, Trouble ShooterRaul, Trouble Shooter
8. Kellogg, Dangerous MindKellogg, Dangerous Mind
9. Legate Lanius, Caesar's AceLegate Lanius, Caesar's Ace
10. Cait, Cage BrawlerCait, Cage Brawler
11. Colonel AutumnColonel Autumn
12. Elder Arthur MaxsonElder Arthur Maxson
13. MacCready, Lamplight MayorMacCready, Lamplight Mayor
14. Shaun, Father of SynthsShaun, Father of Synths
15. Agent Frank HorriganAgent Frank Horrigan
16. Desdemona, Freedom's EdgeDesdemona, Freedom's Edge
17. Moira Brown, Guide AuthorMoira Brown, Guide Author
18. Paladin Elizabeth TaggerdyPaladin Elizabeth Taggerdy
19. Sentinel Sarah LyonsSentinel Sarah Lyons
20. Three Dog, Galaxy News DJThree Dog, Galaxy News DJ
21. Dogmeat, Ever LoyalDogmeat, Ever Loyal
22. Caesar, Legion's EmperorCaesar, Legion's Emperor
23. Mr. House, President and CEOMr. House, President and CEO
24. Dr. Madison LiDr. Madison Li
25. Liberty Prime, RechargedLiberty Prime, Recharged
26. The Master, TranscendentThe Master, Transcendent
27. The Wise MothmanThe Wise Mothman

Under (24)

1. Aradesh, the FounderAradesh, the Founder
2. Codsworth, Handy HelperCodsworth, Handy Helper
3. Commander Sofia DaguerreCommander Sofia Daguerre
4. Overseer of Vault 76Overseer of Vault 76
5. Paladin Danse, Steel MaverickPaladin Danse, Steel Maverick
6. Sierra, Nuka's Biggest FanSierra, Nuka's Biggest Fan
7. Curie, Emergent IntelligenceCurie, Emergent Intelligence
8. James, Wandering DadJames, Wandering Dad
9. Jason Bright, Glowing ProphetJason Bright, Glowing Prophet
10. Nick Valentine, Private EyeNick Valentine, Private Eye
11. Piper Wright, Publick ReporterPiper Wright, Publick Reporter
12. Butch DeLoria, Tunnel SnakeButch DeLoria, Tunnel Snake
13. Duchess, Wayward TavernkeepDuchess, Wayward Tavernkeep
14. Ian the RecklessIan the Reckless
15. The Motherlode, ExcavatorThe Motherlode, Excavator
16. Veronica, Dissident ScribeVeronica, Dissident Scribe
17. Harold and Bob, First NumensHarold and Bob, First Numens
18. Arcade GannonArcade Gannon
19. Elder Owyn LyonsElder Owyn Lyons
20. Red Death, ShipwreckerRed Death, Shipwrecker
21. Cass, Hand of VengeanceCass, Hand of Vengeance
22. Craig Boone, Novac GuardCraig Boone, Novac Guard
23. Marcus, Mutant MayorMarcus, Mutant Mayor
24. ED-E, Lonesome EyebotED-E, Lonesome Eyebot

Can't-Miss Pick

• Preston Garvey, MinutemanPreston Garvey, Minuteman

Thanks to our official Over/Under consiglieres, Jason and Shane, for their expertise! Now please excuse me while I procure a copy of The Wise MothmanThe Wise Mothman, post-haste.

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Kyle Massa

Kyle A. Massa is a writer and avid Magic player living somewhere in upstate New York with his wife, their daughter, and three wild animals. His current favorite card is Flubs, the Fool. Kyle can be found on Twitter @mindofkyleam.