(Valgavoth, Terror Eater | Art by Antonio José Manzanedo)

It's Like Innistrad, Only Not

Welcome back to The Over/Under, the series where we visit distant planes to predict how popular their commanders will become in a year's time. (Usually we visit nicer places, but still.)

The line is 1,200 decks, and each commander gets an "Over" or "Under" based on where I think it'll finish. There's also one Can't-Miss Pick, which is my most confident selection of the set.

Hope you like horror movies. This one comes with a content warning.

The Wandering Rescuer

These planeswalker-turned-creature commanders have been mostly popular, with the glaring exception of Nissa, Resurgent Animist, which I am still not over.

The Wanderer, however, seems poised for popularity, since you can frequently cast her for free, often saving a creature from a targeted removal spell in the process. And don't forget: Convoke reduces your commander tax, too.

My prediction: Over

Toby, Beastie Befriender

If I was your average Duskmornian youth, I probably wouldn't befriend this beastie befriender. Still, I might run him as my commander, since he creates a big token that notably isn't legendary.

That means you can blink Toby to make more, or populate the token to do the same. Also, once you reach four creature tokens, giving them all flying is a legit, game-ending payoff.

My prediction: Over

The Mindskinner

This would be far better in mono-red, but it's still plenty cool in blue. A built-in mill-everybody-for-10-per-attack is sweet enough as is, and it gets even better with unblockable threats such as Shoreline Looter, Slither Blade, and Faerie Seer.

You'll want to pump them up, of course, but with the help of Equipment, that shouldn't be a problem.

My prediction: Over

Valgavoth, Terror Eater

If you're into nine-mana Elder Demons, you get what you pay for. Whether by milling, discarding, or straight-up killing, you'll have plenty of cards to cast using your life total.

In that way, Valgavoth reminds me of Bolas's Citadel, a card that appears in a heck of a lot of decks—221039, to be exact. If Valgavoth achieves even a fraction of that popularity, he'll be an easy Over.

My prediction: Over

Norin, Swift Survivalist

This is a funny card, but my main issue is the agency Norrin gives your opponents. Sure, you can attack with your Dockside Extortionist...but your opponents can just take one. I'm out.

My prediction: Under

Altanak, the Thrice-Called

I don't care how many times Altanak calls—I'm not answering. Too much of its value is tied up in the discard effect, which you're not getting while it's in the command zone.

My prediction: Under

Kona, Rescue Beastie

Vehicles make triggering this beastie pretty easy...but is that appealing enough? This just feels sort of mid to me. I mean, dropping free fatties sounds fun, but your opponents will see them coming from a mile away.

My prediction: Under

Tyvar, the Pummeler

Tyvar is no longer planeswalking, Phyrexian, or bellicose—he's just a fitness nut. And though his semi-permanent indestructibility and repeatable anthem effect are potent, they feel a little too generic-green-goodstuff to inspire enough deckbuilders.

My prediction: Under

Niko, Light of Hope

I like Sun Titan and Frost Titan best with Niko, since you get triggers when the tokens attack, then again when the Titans return. Niko Aris is another auto-include, since it creates even more shards, making the Light of Hope even Hopier.

My prediction: Over

Nashi, Searcher in the Dark

Wordy? Yes. Worth the wordiness? Definitely. Nashi always mills you, and on top of that, he either draws you a relevant spell or pumps himself.

Other than the creepy oil painting of Tamiyo screaming in the background, what's not to like?

My prediction: Over

The Lord of Pain

The real Lord of Pain is me on Sundays when I force myself to watch the New York Giants lose in spectacular new ways. But hey, this Lord of Pain is having a lot more fun than me.

In fact, he looks like an improved version of Kaervek the Merciless. Kaervek only leads 1,276 decks, but at two fewer mana with better stats and abilities, The Lord of Pain should perform far better.

My prediction: Over

Valgavoth, Harrower of Souls

Valgavoth's back already, and this time he's harrowing souls—and opponents. This trigger is kind of weird, honestly, since it only works on your opponents' turns, and only once per.

However, many classic tools from Rakdos, Lord of Riots lists still work, including Spear Spewer, Thermo-Alchemist, and Nettle Drone. Plus, it's a commander product commander, so that always boosts numbers.

My prediction: Over

Rip, Spawn Hunter

The only famous Rips I know are Rip Torn, Rip Hamilton, and Rip Van Winkle, and I'm unsure this Rip will join them. She's basically just a Vehicle payoff that draws you more Vehicles...which is cool, I guess?

I went Over on both Wylie Duke, Atiin Hero and Miriam, Herd Whisperer in Outlaws of Thunder Junction, two Selesnya Vehicle payoffs that are vastly underperforming (425 and 368 decks, respectively). Not making the same mistake a third time.

My prediction: Under

Victor, Valgavoth's Seneschal

Orzhov enchantments is a known commodity, as seen on Eriette of the Charmed Apple and Daxos the Returned. Victor's a little clunkier than either of those, since he wants three enchantments in one turn for full value, which will often prove mana intensive.

Unlocking rooms helps, but those costs aren't discounted much from regular enchantments. Still, it's a fairly novel design, so I think that'll be enough to earn the Over.

My prediction: Over

Rendmaw, Creaking Nest

I'm no farmer, but this is the sickest scarecrow I've ever seen. Rendmaw itself brings the first swarm of crows, and from there, it's easier than it might seem to add more. We've got no shortage of artifact creatures and enchantment creatures, plus even a few artifact enchantments from the original Theros.

Note that Rendmaw says "play" instead of "cast," meaning even artifact lands like Vault of Whispers and Tree of Tales get the job done. This is without doubt my favorite commander of the set.

My prediction: Over (Can't-Miss Pick!)

The Swarmweaver

Insects are quietly becoming a go-to theme in Golgari; just look at Grist, the Hunger Tide, Zask, Skittering Swarmlord, and Amzu, Swarm's Hunger. All but Amzu have performed well, and I have to imagine that's more due to Amzu's relative scarcity than a lack of interest in insects.

Plus, The Swarmweaver also powers up Spiders, and Shelob, Child of Ungoliant has shown us just how popular those can be.

My prediction: Over

Winter, Cynical Opportunist

Speaking as someone who loves Delirium (the mechanic, not the actual feeling), I'm actually pretty underwhelmed by this guy. It seems challenging to restock your graveyard turn after turn, and this honestly reads like an inferior version of Meren of Clan Nel Toth.

That said, Winter is the face of a commander precon deck, and those almost always go Over.

My prediction: Over

Arabella, Abandoned Doll

If you encounter someone who's running this as their commander, that person is clearly a deranged psychopath and you should leave before they murder you. I'm genuinely hoping there are fewer than 1,200 deranged psychopaths out there.

My prediction: Under

The Jolly Balloon Man

This is without a doubt one of the most demented Magic cards ever printed. Like, if Eli Roth decided to play EDH, this would be his go-to commander. That leaves 1,199 decks to be made, and I think The Jolly Balloon Man will easily get there.

Just load your deck with ETB triggers, death triggers, or both, and you'll be as jolly as this guy.

My prediction: Over

Kianne, Corrupted Memory

This is one of the oddest commanders ever designed, not least of all because it cares about odds—and evens, for that matter. What's next, a commander that cares about prime numbers? Hah! I crack myself up.

Anyhoo, casting creatures or noncreatures with flash is a fairly powerful ability, and getting counters for every card drawn is even better, especially in Simic. Plus, Kianne's part of the Commander precon product, and we know what that usually means.

My prediction: Over

Zimone, All-Questioning

Called it.

Remember when you were barely awake in math class, learning about nonsense like negative numbers and integers and hypotenuses, and you asked your teacher, in all seriousness, "But when are we ever going to use this stuff?"

Now. This is when. Fortunately, Zimone lists your prime numbers up to 31, and by then you shouldn't have many more lands in your deck.

But here's my question for the All-Questioning...is tracking prime numbers fun? In my experience, it was a complete drag in school, yet something tells me there are more mathematicians in the greater community. Prove me right, people.

My prediction: Over

Zimone, Mystery Unraveler

I'm just glad this version of Zimone doesn't deal with trigonometry or something. Instead, she's all about manifesting dread, which is no branch of math I've ever heard of—but then again, I dropped trig after two classes, so what do I know?

Anyway, Zimone works quite well with several pre-existing cards, including Secret Plans, Trail of Mystery, Deathmist Raptor, and lots more. Consider this mystery unraveled.

My prediction: Over

Aminatou, Veil Piercer

The original Aminatou, Aminatou, the Fateshifter, was among the first crop of Over/Under selections I ever made. I got her wrong, of course, but that's neither here nor there.

What matters is, I won't make the same mistake twice. This Aminatou is very similar, and in some ways, better. I mean, imagine casting Overwhelming Splendor for half the mana, all while exclaiming, "It's a miracle!" (Even though you stacked your deck.)

My prediction: Over

The Master of Keys

It's not often that the secondary commander in a commander product looks more enticing than the primary, but that's what we have here—at least in my opinion. Even when X equals one, you get a 4/4 flyer that mills two, and it only gets better from there.

You might even pay zero just to get The Master out there, if you need. And no matter what you pay, you're getting an easy way to recast your expired Sagas...or why not cast your Urza's Saga over and over for zero mana?

My prediction: Over

Winter, Misanthropic Guide

The joke here is getting seven-plus card types into your graveyard, because then your opponents hands will become use-'em-or-lose-'em. Winter is especially potent with Waste Not, Sheoldred, the Apocalypse, and pretty much anything you'd play in a Nekusar, the Mindrazer deck (minus the blue stuff).

I think this will clearly be the more popular Winter, despite not being part of the commander product.

My prediction: Over

Marina Vendrell

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Five-color commanders always go Over. Marina is no exception, since she can draw you a full hand of enchantments if you're lucky, plus unlock all the doors on them.

She can even re-lock doors to later re-trigger Rooms like Funeral Room // Awakening Hall.

My prediction: Over

Marvin, Murderous Mimic

Ah!

...Sorry, this artwork is like a jump scare. But that's not the only thing I'm afraid of—Marvin has crazy combo potential. Palladium Myr plus Farmstead Gleaner gives you infinite +1/+1 counters, while the Palladium plus Pili-Pala gives you infinite mana. If that's not a murderous way to finish a game, I don't know what is.

My prediction: Over

Recap

Overs (21)

1. The Wandering Rescuer
2. Toby, Beastie Befriender
3. The Mindskinner
4. Valgavoth, Terror Eater
5. Niko, Light of Hope
6. Nashi, Searcher in the Dark
7. The Lord of Pain
8. Valgavoth, Harrower of Souls
9. Victor, Valgavoth's Seneschal
10. Rendmaw, Creaking Nest (Can't-Miss Pick)
11. The Swarmweaver
12. Winter, Cynical Opportunist
13. The Jolly Balloon Man
14. Kianne, Corrupted Memory
15. Zimone, All-Questioning
16. Zimone, Mystery Unraveler
17. Aminatou, Veil Piercer
18. The Master of Keys
19. Winter, Misanthropic Guide
20. Marina Vendrell
21. Marvin, Murderous Mimic

Unders (6)

1. Norin, Swift Survivalist
2. Altanak, the Thrice-Called
3. Kona, Rescue Beastie
4. Tyvar, the Pummeler
5. Rip, Spawn Hunter
6. Arabella, Abandoned Doll

I'll be honest, I still don't quite understand why we invented a brand new plane when this one still feels so similar to Innistrad. Seriously, couldn't this just be some new haunted house they opened next to Gavony?

Oh well—I shouldn't let such a minor quibble diminish what promises to be a fun new set. Be careful out there!