Ezio Auditore da Firenze | Art by Fajareka Setiawan

Running on Rooftops

Welcome back to The Over/Under, the article series where we predict how popular new Universes Beyond IP will become one year after release. Seriously, there are many such sets these days.

I'll give each new commander an "Over" or "Under" prediction with a line of 1,200 decks. The former means I'm predicting more than 1,200 decks after a year, while the latter is fewer. I'll also do one Can't-Miss Pick, which is my sure-fire called-shot selection. Once a year's passed, I'll write a follow-up article checking my work.

A quick note before we begin: Unlike our last Universes Beyond set, Fallout, the distribution for Assassin's Creed is going to be a bit different. No commander decks—instead, it's an ultra small set distributed via mini boosters.

You might think that would affect these commanders' popularity, but I'm guessing it won't. That's because March of the Machine: The Aftermath had a similar distribution strategy, yet that sets' commanders did just fine. I'm anticipating something similar here.

Hope you brought your controller, because we're about to start freerunning.

Layla Hassan

Though its fortunes are improving, mono-white's lack of easy ramp and card advantage make it EDHREC's least popular color. Layla addresses the latter, however, and with her support of Assassins, I'll give her the benefit of the doubt.

My prediction: Over

Senu, Keen-Eyed Protector

Neat design, but clearly more of a supportive piece than the head honcho—or birdo, as it were.

My prediction: Under

Leonardo da Vinci

Artist, inventor, scientist, sculptor, architect, and now Thopter typal commander. Leo really can do it all. One could either play him in tandem with classic Thopter makers such as Sai, Master Thopterist, Thopter Spy Network, and Efficient Construction, or more like a reanimator commander. Either way, I think he'll be quite popular.

My prediction: Over

Desmond Miles

Threatens to get very big very fast, especially with mono-black Assassin token makers like...

You know, I got halfway through that sentence, tried to find some, and came away empty. Still, even without those tokens, this set should provide enough Assassins to make Desmond worth the Miles.

My prediction: Over

Roshan, Hidden Magister

I take back what I wrote about Desmond's Assassin tokens. Now all your tokens are Assassins, along with the rest of your creatures. Roshan also provides an excellent bonus on your facedown creatures. I have no idea why he's an uncommon and not a rare, but so be it.

My prediction: Over

Alexios, Deimos of Kosmos

Reminds me of Khârn the Betrayer from Warhammer, and Khârn did indeed go Over. However, that was back when the line was 600. Now that we're aiming for double that, I'm skeptical this design will make it, even if he is a deimos.

My prediction: Under

Surtr, Fiery Jötun

A free Lightning Bolt every time I cast my Squee, the Immortal, which I'll be doing often, since I have an irrational fondness for that card? Sign me up!

My prediction: Over

Haytham Kenway

The protection from Assassins thing is mostly flavor text, but +2/+2 on all knights and a built-in Grasp of Fate is pretty sweet, especially for a guy who looks like he hails from Innistrad.

My prediction: Over

Sokrates, Athenian Teacher

I'm sure there's a reason Socrates spelled his own name wrong, and I'm sure fans of Assassin's Creed will cordially explain it to me in the comments. Until then, I like what I'm seeing. Socrates—or Sokrates—is a card draw engine, a Group Hug commander, and a damage preventer, all rolled into one elite teacher.

My prediction: Over

Achilles Davenport

If I remember my history correctly, Achilles's last name was actually "Johnson." However, if we're spelling Socrates with a "K," I guess accuracy has gone into the hay bale. This Achilles is fairly vanilla as a commander, but I think he'll serve as a budget-friendly entry point into what promises to be a popular type.

My prediction: Over

Adéwalé, Breaker of Chains

Assassins, Pirates, and Vehicles are all sought-after card types, so I'd expect this to be a fairly easy Over. I'm just glad they didn't group those three types under a single name, e.g. Outlaws in Outlaws of Thunder Junction.

My prediction: Over

Basim Ibn Ishaq

This is basically a colorshifted Jhoira, Weatherlight Captain at half the cost, with a Slith ability tacked on for fun. Not my most elegant sales pitch, but enough for an Over, in my opinion.

My prediction: Over

Evie Frye + Jacob Frye

The synergy is clear, here—it just doesn't seem that good. If you could cast the copy without paying its mana cost, we'd be talking. As it stands, we're not even chatting.

My prediction: Under

Ezio, Blade of Vengeance

This is a fairly restrained design. By today's standards, you'd expect another keyword, plus some wordy trigger, plus better stats. Still, this is the main character of the game (I'm told), so I think that'll juice the numbers.

My prediction: Over

Lydia Frye

I would've preferred flying, or menace, or, I don't know, even intimidate to this.

...Alright, maybe not Intimidate. But you get my point, and the Surveil thing isn't lighting my fyre for Frye, either.

My prediction: Under

Arno Dorian

I've never realized it until now, but is Creed every Assassin's favorite band? This is how your mind wanders when you encounter a boring commander like this.

My prediction: Under

Shay Cormac

Believe it or not, Shay here is not the first or second, but sixth card in the game's history to reference bounty counters. Of those six, two others are commanders, and neither of them went Over. The takeaway: This guy's not, either, but if they ever do a Universes Beyond: Star Wars, maybe Boba Fett will.

My prediction: Under

Mary Read and Anne Bonny

Though I haven't played Assassin's Creed, I have read about pirates on Wikipedia, so I'm familiar with Mary and Anne here. A 3/3 hasty looter is fine, but turning discards into Treasure is an entirely novel effect, and one I'm looking forward to seeing. Hullbreacher may be banned, but next time you cast a Wheel effect with these two on the field, the results may be similar.

My prediction: Over

Shao Jun

Even on a 3/3, flying and first strike are going to be pretty hard to block. But the real reason you're playing this commander is the Rope Dart ability, which pops off with EDH staples like Dockside Extortionist. Or just imagine Shao Jun and our previous commander in the same deck...

My prediction: Over

Aveline de Grandpré

I keep reading "Grandpré" as "Grandpa," which probably isn't the correct translation. Probably. However, I predict many EDH players—perhaps even your grandpa—will enjoy playing this commander. It's quite similar to Fynn, the Fangbearer, a sleeper hit that currently stands as mono-green's most popular commander.

My prediction: Over

Cleopatra, Exiled Pharaoh

Both these abilities are excellent. Reyhan, Last of the Abzan, Grakmaw, Skyclave Ravager, Polukranos, Unchained, Kodama of the West Tree...all these creatures benefit from free counters and don't mind dying (or actively want to). Excellent commander here.

My prediction: Over

Arbaaz Mir

Arbaaz appears to be the world's first ultimate frisbee player. Maybe that's why I'm so unimpressed. I've never really understood the allure of the sport, and I'm not allured by a nickel-and-dime commander like this. If it counted tokens, maybe. But as is, I'm not seeing it.

My prediction: Under

Aya of Alexandria

Whether you build around Assassins, legends, artifacts, or Sagas(?), I think you'll be happy with Aya. Plus, she double triggers with double strike. I know that because of our next card...

My prediction: Over

Bayek of Siwa

See? Double strike. With the adjoining art and flavor text, I'm surprised these aren't Partners. Still, if Aya sees play, I can see Bayek earning a similar number of decks.

My prediction: Over

Eivor, Battle-Ready

Gonna be honest, I think we should expect better from our Equipment commanders these days. A five-mana 5/5 with relevant abilities is nice, but it'll be difficult to accumulate enough Equipment to make that ETB trigger threatening. Plus, I think we've been spoiled by commanders like Nahiri, Forged in Fury, Wyleth, Soul of Steel, and Akiri, Fearless Voyager, since they all draw cards.

My prediction: Under

Ezio, Brash Novice

Ezio's flavor text essentially describes the stereotypical college freshman, and not even freshmen want to be around freshmen.

My prediction: Under

Kassandra, Eagle Bearer

If you're wondering what The Spear of Leonidas looks like...

This design reminds me of Nazahn, Revered Bladesmith, a commander that boasts a paltry 511 decks. However, I think Nazahn's poor showing is due to a lack of quality, not interest. The cat just isn't that good, even with his Hammer. Kassandra, on the other hand, offers optionality and card draw at half the cost.

My prediction: Over

Ratonhnhaké꞉ton

I was skeptical of this card until I checked on Arna Kennerüd, Skycaptain from Modern Horizons 3, since she's also an Esper equipment commander. Arna's less than 100 decks away from the Over, and I, of course, predicted Under. I won't make the same mistake twice.

My prediction: Over

Edward Kenway

This card is sick. Not only does Kenway create a boatload of free Treasure (literally, if you're playing Skysovereign, Consul Flagship—he also steals your opponents stuff, giving you plenty of fodder to spend your booty on. Now get your booty down to your LGS and buy this card.

My prediction: Over (Can't Miss Pick)

Eivor, Wolf-Kissed

If we learned anything from Tom Bombadil, it's that players love free Sagas. Also, "willow" rhymes with "Bombadillo." But mostly, players love free Sagas.

My prediction: Over

Havi, the All-Father

Havi, the All-Father

Havi here doesn't appear to have a dad bod, and something tells me he doesn't tell dad jokes, either. He still appears to be a great father, though, what with his resilience and his ability to revive fallen friends (or children?). I'm only the father of one kid, and that's already pretty tiring. Being the father of everyone? Now that's a commander worth playing.

My prediction: Over

Sigurd, Jarl of Ravensthorpe

Unlike the aforementioned Eivor, Wolf-Kissed, Sigurd doesn't grant free Sagas. He does, however, allow you to repeat the same chapter over and over, which is something that otherwise only happens when your Kindle is glitching. In other words, this is a novel effect that should capture many a deckbuilders' interest.

My prediction: Over

Shaun & Rebecca, Agents

Agents of what? SHIELD? Professional sports? The IRS? Whoever these two work for, most of their value comes from this companion card:

I'm not enthused by this. Copying deceased legends is interesting, but cards like Kethis, the Hidden Hand let you cast them, which is almost always better.

My prediction: Under

Altaïr Ibn-La'Ahad

There aren't many Assassins in these colors, but a few of my favorites are Big Game Hunter, Massacre Girl, Known Killer, and Nekrataal. Plus, it'll only get better as more Assassins are printed in the coming year.

My prediction: Over

Ezio Auditore da Firenze

Quite the name this guy has. Also quite the ability, especially when you -3 your Sorin Markov. Plus, as a de-facto five-color commander, he's guaranteed to go Over. Forget Raymond—everybody loves WUBRG.

My prediction: Over

The Capitoline Triad

Well, card designs don't get much wilder than this. 30 is a lot (trust me, I'm 32), but there are some absurdly high-costed artifacts you can mill and/or discard, such as Draco and Scion of Draco, which almost get you there by themselves. I'm not saying people will actually get their emblems—I'm just predicting that they'll try.

My prediction: Over

Recap

Over (26)

1. Layla Hassan
2. Leonardo da Vinci
3. Desmond Miles
4. Roshan, Hidden Magister
5. Surtr, Fiery Jötun
6. Haytham Kenway
7. Sokrates, Athenian Teacher
8. Achilles Davenport
9. Adéwalé, Breaker of Chains
10. Basim Ibn Ishaq
11. Ezio, Blade of Vengeance
12. Mary Read and Anne Bonny
13. Shao Jun
14. Aveline de Grandpré
15. Cleopatra, Exiled Pharaoh
16. Aya of Alexandria
17. Bayek of Siwa
18. Kassandra, Eagle Bearer
19. Ratonhnhaké꞉ton
20. Edward Kenway (Can't Miss Pick)
21. Eivor, Wolf-Kissed
22. Havi, the All-Father
23. Sigurd, Jarl of Ravensthorpe
24. Altaïr Ibn-La'Ahad
25. Ezio Auditore da Firenze
26. The Capitoline Triad

Under (10)

1. Eivor, Battle-Ready
2. Senu, Keen-Eyed Protector
3. Alexios, Deimos of Kosmos
4. Evie Frye + Jacob Frye
5. Lydia Frye
6. Arno Dorian
7. Shay Cormac
8. Arbaaz Mir
9. Ezio, Brash Novice
10. Shaun & Rebecca, Agents

With all these assassins running around, we should all be watching our backs. Let's see how the coming year treats them.