Winter, Cursed RiderWinter, Cursed Rider | Art by Daren Bader

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Now This Is Pod Racing

Just kidding, it's Vehicles and Mounts. Still, today we're jumping into the cockpit for Aetherdrift, and you're invited to join along for the ride. And we'll be doing it Over/Under style.

In this series, we try to predict whether new commanders will earn more or fewer than 1200 decks after one year of circulation. Each commander gets an "Over" or "Under" grade corresponding to that prediction. Next year, I'll check back and see how I did. Plus, I've got one "Can't-Miss Pick," which is sort of like a called shot in Horse.

Ready to start your engines? (Eh, I'm actually not wild about that mechanic, as you'll soon see.) Let's go!

Basri, Tomorrow's Champion

If this is tomorrow's champion, I'm glad it's still today. I mean, unless you find some creative way to bounce this to your hand, you're never using the Cycling ability. And, I mean, I like cats, but even I can't get excited about generating one every other turn.

My prediction: Way Under

Sundial, Dawn Tyrant

Umm, is this a misprint? Last year, we got a common commander in Skoa, EmbermageSkoa, Embermage, and this thing is somehow worse. I suppose a commander can't earn zero decks...but I suspect Sundial here won't get many more.

My prediction: Way, Way Under

Caelorna, Coral Tyrant

Am I missing something here? Is this an elaborate prank on the part of Wizards R&D? Or a printing error? Glitch in the Matrix? Whatever it is, it's most certainly an Under.

My prediction: See above

Mu Yanling, Wind Rider

Hmm, this is pretty interesting. You essentially get a free, souped-up Smuggler's CopterSmuggler's Copter every time you cast or blink your commander. Tokens like these are usually legendary, but since this one isn't, you can accumulate multiples to harry your enemies from the skies. Although that's intriguing, I don't think it's intriguing enough.

My prediction: Under

Vnwxt, Verbose Host

The no-vowel thing was funny when they did it with Fblthp. Now I'm just flustered. I'm glad this isn't a podcast, because I have no idea how to pronounce that name.

Notice how verbose I'm being about this Verbose Host? That's because I think it's pretty darn good. It takes a while to rev that engine, but once you do, you get a two-mana Consecrated SphinxConsecrated Sphinx from the Command Zone. I like the sound of that.

My prediction: Over

Gonti, Night Minister

Gonti is back and better than ever. Think of him like a mono-black Prosper, Tome-BoundProsper, Tome-Bound, only with an everybody-benefits twist. Yes, you'll be gifting free cards and Treasure to your opponents—but many players will appreciate that sort of chaos.

My prediction: Over

Kalakscion, Hunger Tyrant

Seven power for three mana? Now that's a bargain. And two toughness might be low, but it's more than one. Also, that block of flavor text might make your opponents think there's some big dangerous line of text if they're not paying enough attention to. And also, Kalakscion is a Crocodile, and, umm, we all know what great kindred support there is for Crocodiles, and...

Ugg, I just can't do it. I was trying to pretend this commander is an any way viable, but it's not. It might make someone chuckle, but that's the best I can say.

My prediction: Under

The Speed Demon

Flample makes it easy to get those engines started, and what's more, it's not like you need max speed to get any sort of bonus. Even one free card per turn is pretty sweet, and once you get up to four, you're just begging to get a speeding ticket.

My prediction: Over (The Speed Limit)

Daretti, Rocketeer Engineer

Daretti was the first commander spoiled from this set, and he's also a new version of an existing character. Both those factors usually produce an Over...but I don't think they will in this instance. He's basically an upgraded Goblin WelderGoblin Welder, and while that card does appear in 65,432 decks, it's nowhere near as powerful as it used to be.

My prediction: Under

Hazoret, Godseeker

Hazoret makes earning Max Speed easy, but I'm still skeptical of this mechanic (despite giving it two Overs so far). And while a two-mana 5/3 is exciting, efficiency isn't really the name of the game in Commander.

My prediction: Under

Tyrox, Saurid Tyrant

Okay, I see we've got a cycle on our hands here. It's not much of a cycle, since it appears we're going to get a vanilla legend in each color. After consulting with one of the Official Over/Under Consigliaries, Jason, I learned these Tyrants are from Muraganda, and the joke on Muraganda is that everything's a vanilla creature. This is a long-winded way of saying this card is going Under.

My prediction: Under

Nissa, Worldsoul Speaker

Landfall? Energy? Free spells? A commander from the Commander product? Pointy ears? What's not to like?

My prediction: Over

Oviya, Automech Artisan

This is Elvish PiperElvish Piper from the command zone with a bit of extra text. The Piper appears in 31,927 decks, which might sound like a lot, but is just 1% overall, and low total for a non-commander. Just not seeing it here.

My prediction: Under

Terrian, World Tyrant

I mean, at least this one has some stats. And tentacles growing from its face. And shrubbery growing from its back. And...umm...sigh. I just can't do this anymore.

My prediction: Let's move on

Mendicant Core, Guidelight

Now this is more like it. Azorious artifacts is a tried-and-true Commander archetype, and this Robot fits right in. Plus, it gives a legit payoff at Max Speed. I'm definitely hopping on this bandwagon.

My prediction: Over

Winter, Cursed Rider

I'm guessing this is a riff on Ghost Rider, who was played in the movies by Nicolas Cage, and I was therefore expecting great things. Instead, I get a two-mana schlub who provides minimal protection along with a finicky board-wipe. Reminds me of a color-shifted, artifact-themed Mageta the LionMageta the Lion, and that dude only leads 285 decks. Also, any reader in their 20s had no idea that card existed.

My prediction: Under

Far Fortune, End Boss

This card's giving me real Mad Max vibes, which is a good thing. Another good thing: That attack trigger. Yet another good thing: Giving out free bonus damage, as we've seen with Torbran, Thane of Red FellTorbran, Thane of Red Fell and Ojer Axonil, Deepest MightOjer Axonil, Deepest Might.

My prediction: Over

Redshift, Rocketeer Chief

Now this is an inspired design. Everybody likes Goblins, free mana is fun, and the Exhaust ability is downright hilarious. I feel like I say this frequently, but Colossus HammerColossus Hammer works perfectly with this dude. And, BTW, Equip costs are activated abilities.

My prediction: Over

Caradora, Heart of Alacria

Although Vehicles have always been fairly popular, Mounts were a failure in Commander. Just check the Outlaws of Thunder Junction commander page, which is nearly a year old, yet lacks a single Over for Mount-related commanders. And while the Hardened ScalesHardened Scales ability is fun, it won't convince me to hop in the saddle.

My prediction: Under

Lagorin, Soul of Alacria

See above.

My prediction: Under

Ketramose, the New Dawn

Now this is sweet. White offers plenty of ways to exile stuff (I'm looking at you, Swords to PlowsharesSwords to Plowshares), and black can do it a bit, too (Extinction EventExtinction Event, anyone?). And honestly, plenty of cards get exiled naturally over the course of most games as it is. Easy Over here.

My prediction: Over

Zahur, Glory's Past

That Max Speed ability is plenty powerful, but once again, I'm skeptical about how fast you can realistically build up to it. Four turn cycles seems like an eternity in your standard Commander game. Furthermore, the rest of the card doesn't do enough to justify itself in the meantime. Glory's past indeed.

My prediction: Under

Captain Howler, Sea Scourge

I mean, a Shark Pirate might be an Over all by itself. The Cycling synergy helps, and players generally enjoy a little saboteur action, too.

My prediction: Over

Aatchik, Emerald Radian

You know, I would've given this an unequivocal Over if not for Amzu, Swarm's HungerAmzu, Swarm's Hunger from the Clue crossover set. Until that card appeared, my faith in Golgari Insect kindred commanders was unshakeable. And then Amzu fell about 400 decks short of the mark.

However, I won't let this aberration fool me. Only one commander among the nine from Clue went Over, which makes me think it was more an issue with the product than the cards themselves. I still believe in Golgari Insects, and I still believe in Aatchik.

My prediction: Over

Kolodin, Triumph Caster

Mount commander. No thank you.

My prediction: Under

Sab-Sunen, Luxa Embodied

I'm really enjoying these new God cards, and Sab-Sunen is no exception. It's unique, powerful, and has a frog head, which certainly can't hurt.

My prediction: Over

Sita Varma, Masked Racer

This feels like a whole lot of waiting around for a wide board and a ton of mana. Meanwhile, you've got yourself a measly 2/3. Not interested. Shane and Jason, the official Over/Under Consiglieres, agreed with me. Thanks fellas.

My prediction: Under

Hashaton, Scarab's Fist

This card is pretty sweet. It works wonders with any free discard outlet, and if works even better with creatures that function irrespective of their stats. I'm thinking Baleful StrixBaleful Strix, Solemn SimulacrumSolemn Simulacrum, or Archon of CrueltyArchon of Cruelty, but I'm sure you'll find your own favorites.

My prediction: Over

Temmet, Naktamun's Will

Whether it's Varina, Lich QueenVarina, Lich Queen, Nevinyrral, Urborg TyrantNevinyrral, Urborg Tyrant, or this guy, an Esper Zombie Over is just about as serious as a zombie bite.

My prediction: Over

Samut, the Driving Force

Look, I know I said I was skeptical of the whole Start Your Engines thing, but when it's this pushed, I suspect it'll be difficult for the average player to say no.

My prediction: Over

Loot, the Pathfinder

Considering this is the third Loot in the past two years, this little guy is fast becoming the new Niv-Mizzet. It helps that this is probably the best version we've seen thus far. Oh, and by the way, he's essentially a spellshaper for Black LotusBlack Lotus, Ancestral RecallAncestral Recall, and Lightning BoltLightning Bolt. Now that's sweet.

My prediction: Over (Can't-Miss Pick)

Pia Nalaar, Chief Mechanic

This is a pretty whacky design, and what's better, it's actually good. Assuming you poke someone with an artifact creature each turn, you get a zero-mana 2/2 flyer—and it only gets bigger the more Energy you invest into it. Now that is sweet.

My prediction: Over

Saheeli, Radiant Creator

This card feels quite similar to Hashaton, Scarab's FistHashaton, Scarab's Fist with the whole token copy thing, which is a bit odd to see in the same set. However, that doesn't make Saheeli any less appealing as a commander. Note that you can copy any permanent, not just artifacts, allowing for some fun synergies with enchantments, lands, and even planeswalkers.

My prediction: Over

Mimeoplasm, Revered One

The first commander deck I ever owned was the precon featuring The MimeoplasmThe Mimeoplasm, so this glob of goo holds a special place in my heart. This certainly feels like a modernized, improved version of the commander, what with its flexible mana cost and ability to change shape at the cost of just two mana. Revered indeed.

My prediction: Over

Recap

Overs (18)

1. Vnwxt, Verbose HostVnwxt, Verbose Host
2. Gonti, Night MinisterGonti, Night Minister
3. The Speed DemonThe Speed Demon
4. Nissa, Worldsoul SpeakerNissa, Worldsoul Speaker
5. Mendicant Core, GuidelightMendicant Core, Guidelight
6. Far Fortune, End BossFar Fortune, End Boss
7. Redshift, Rocketeer ChiefRedshift, Rocketeer Chief
8. Ketramose, the New DawnKetramose, the New Dawn
9. Captain Howler, Sea ScourgeCaptain Howler, Sea Scourge
10. Aatchik, Emerald RadianAatchik, Emerald Radian
11. Sab-Sunen, Luxa EmbodiedSab-Sunen, Luxa Embodied
12. Hashaton, Scarab's FistHashaton, Scarab's Fist
13. Temmet, Naktamun's WillTemmet, Naktamun's Will
14. Samut, the Driving ForceSamut, the Driving Force
15. Loot, the PathfinderLoot, the Pathfinder (Can't-Miss Pick)
16. Pia Nalaar, Chief MechanicPia Nalaar, Chief Mechanic
17. Saheeli, Radiant CreatorSaheeli, Radiant Creator
18. Mimeoplasm, Revered OneMimeoplasm, Revered One

Unders (16)

1. Basri, Tomorrow's ChampionBasri, Tomorrow's Champion
2. Sundial, Dawn TyrantSundial, Dawn Tyrant
3. Caelorna, Coral TyrantCaelorna, Coral Tyrant
4. Mu Yanling, Wind RiderMu Yanling, Wind Rider
5. Kalakscion, Hunger TyrantKalakscion, Hunger Tyrant
6. Daretti, Rocketeer EngineerDaretti, Rocketeer Engineer
7. Hazoret, GodseekerHazoret, Godseeker
8. Tyrox, Saurid TyrantTyrox, Saurid Tyrant
9. Oviya, Automech ArtisanOviya, Automech Artisan
10. Terrian, World TyrantTerrian, World Tyrant
11. Winter, Cursed RiderWinter, Cursed Rider
12. Caradora, Heart of AlacriaCaradora, Heart of Alacria
13. Lagorin, Soul of AlacriaLagorin, Soul of Alacria
14. Zahur, Glory's PastZahur, Glory's Past
15. Kolodin, Triumph CasterKolodin, Triumph Caster
16. Sita Varma, Masked RacerSita Varma, Masked Racer

Try not to get a speeding ticket out there.

Kyle Massa

Kyle A. Massa is a writer and avid Magic player living somewhere in upstate New York with his wife, their daughter, and three wild animals. His current favorite card is Flubs, the Fool. Kyle can be found on Twitter @mindofkyleam.