Aragorn and Arwen, Wed | Art by Magali Villeneuve

The Return of the Predictions

One does not simply write a single Over/Under article for The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth. A second part is needed!

In the Over/Under article series, we predict how popular (or unpopular) new commanders will become after a year of existence. The line is 1,200 decks, so each commander gets an "Over" or "Under" grade predicting if it'll go above or below, respectively. I'll also choose one Can't-Miss Pick, which is my guaranteed, no-nonsense, called shot for the set. I evaluated all the base set commanders in Part 1, so click here to read that if you missed it.

Now, ready for the Commander deck commanders? Now for wrath, now for ruin, and... you get the idea.

Beregond of the Guard

If the "dreadful thing" Pippin's talking about in the flavor text is going Under, Beregond is screwed. We've got far better options for Humans in this set alone.

My prediction: Under

Gilraen, Dúnedain Protector

Here's the translation of Gilraen's flavor text: I'm not going Over.

Just kidding, it's way more poetic. Still, even this novel twist on a blink effect won't be enough to rise above mainstays like Brago, King Eternal.

My prediction: Under

Gwaihir, Greatest of the Eagles

Despite not in fact being a snow cone, Gwaihir seems both snowbally and sweet. With enough 3+ power lifelinkers (or just recurring lifegain), I daresay this should be easy to trigger.

My prediction: Over

The Gaffer

I've been too high on mono-white card-drawing commanders before (see Mangara, the Diplomat), but not this time. Lifegain is what mono-white does best, and when it comes to cooking up both extra life and po-ta-toes, there's no one better than this guy, except maybe his son, Samwise Gamgee.

My prediction: Over

Monstrosity of the Lake

Umm... ten mana?

Ten. Mana?

I mean, I suppose you could blink Monstrosity of the Lake with Conjurer's Closet, then pay for just the ETB trigger. I guess that's pretty nice for a repeatable Sleep, though it makes the Monstrosity a lightning rod for removal.

I'm not seeing it. This card has power, but it requires far too much to go right.

My prediction: Under

Gollum, Obsessed Stalker

Fascinating design here. You just need to tag an opponent with Gollum once, and from there, you can sit back and gain life to your precious' content. I recommend running this with Gray Merchant of Asphodel, Nighthawk Scavenger, and Tendrils of Corruption, just to name a few.

My prediction: Over

Lobelia, Defender of Bag End

Of all the characters to get two cards, Lobelia had to be the longest shot. I mean, Théoden's a king, yet he only got one!

That said, she's a card advantage machine, so long as you bring artifacts to sacrifice and find plenty of ways to blink her. Yet this, I think, is her ultimate downfall. She's got a fairly high setup cost with a low return on investment (not to mention the most Hobbity Hobbit feet I've ever seen).

My prediction: Under

Shelob, Dread Weaver

Not only does this card hose many graveyard-based strategies, it also provides card advantage, either from your deck or straight to the battlefield. Yet still, the community at large seems far more interested in Shelob, Child of Ungoliant. Honestly, I can't blame them.

My prediction: Under

Gimli of the Glittering Caves

It's a neat design and not without promise, but all of your hard work can be undone with a single removal spell.

My prediction: Under

Arwen, Weaver of Hope

Yeah, I mean, that's a lot of counters. But there's no shortage of counter-granting magic in Magic these days, and you can usually get it with more colors than one.

My prediction: Under

Haldir, Lórien Lieutenant

"Other Elves" are the magic words on this card, taking it from fringe playable to... moderately playable. It's just that you need to invest so many mana to get bang for your buck, and even then, you're probably better off with Elf commanders like Lathril, Blade of the Elves and Ezuri, Renegade Leader.

My prediction: Under

Legolas Greenleaf

I'd be far more interested in this card if it had Partners with Gimli of the Glittering Caves. Yet without it, we get an understated, unimpressive commander. Play it in your Elf decks, but nowhere else.

My prediction: Under

Boromir, Gondor's Hope

A Human commander in an unusual color pair that also supports an Equipment subtheme? That already sounds promising. Many Humans love Equipment (see Puresteel Paladin, Danitha Capashen, Paragon, and most patrons at your local Home Depot), so this seems like a natural pairing. Boromir can even find Equipment for himself that might enable him to attack more frequently, thereby drawing more cards.

My prediction: Over

Faramir, Steward of Gondor

The mere presence of the word "monarch" on a card usually makes it appealing. Faramir here is no exception. His brother fulfills the trigger condition quite nicely, as do 15 other commanders from this set alone. You're showing your quality, pal.

My prediction: Over

Gríma, Saruman's Footman

I have one word for you: meh. I doubt EDH players are clamoring to play a Wormtongue commander, and there's no guarantee you even hit anything useful. At least he'll place well in Severus Snape lookalike contests.

My prediction: Under

Lord of the Nazgûl

Finally, you can play that copy of Dirtwater Wraiths you've been hoarding in that shoebox under your bed.

Seriously though, I wouldn't recommend playing that, nor the five other Wraiths appearing in Magic prior to this set. That said, you don't really need to: Lord of the Nazgûl is an army-in-a-can, especially with cantrips, of which there's no shortage in blue.

This dude is powerful, flavorful, and fun. What more could you ask for?

My prediction: Over

The Balrog of Moria

Ah yes, this is exactly what I want: a seven-mana commander with Cycling and a death trigger.

My prediction: Under

Farmer Cotton

This artwork looks more Innistradian than Middle-earthian, but I like it. I also like the commander itself, at least from a flavor standpoint. Problem is, there's minimal support for Halflings, and only a handful more for Food. In that case, you're looking at general token synergies. There are decades of competition there, especially in Selesnya.

My prediction: Under

Treebeard, Gracious Host

Right when I say there's no Halfling support, we get this guy. Still, you're likely building around Treefolk instead, especially Woodfall Primus and Ezzaroot Channeler. Treebeard is an amazing commander, not to mention a gracious Airbnb host.

My prediction: Over

Denethor, Stone Seer

Fun fact: Denethor enjoys self-immolation (both the literal kind and the King Gizzard song). This design makes that perfectly clear, though the flavor creates a fairly clunky commander. I mean, I'm a fan of wheel spinning, but constantly sacrificing your commander just to hold onto the Monarch seems too far.

My prediction: Under

Éomer, King of Rohan

Umm, wow, spoiler. Still, this card continues the trend of Boros commanders that supply fairly consistent card advantage, this time using the Monarch emblem. It's a popular mechanic, and when we add support for Humans to the mix, I see no reason why Éomer won't be an excellent king.

My prediction: Over

Círdan the Shipwright

I'm pretty sure this guy appears in one chapter in the trilogy and gets no lines in the movies, but we'll go with it. He's clearly into consolation prizes, giving those with no votes the best rewards. (Seems un-democratic, but Middle-earth prefers monarchies, anyway.) This creates a fun little mini-game, and though it's difficult to build around, I suspect players will enjoy it enough to try it out.

My prediction: Over

Elrond of the White Council

This card is so sweet. I suspect you're getting aid votes most of the time, though some might vote for fellowship if they're especially concerned about the threat of Mordor. (P.S. Illusion of Choice is amazing with this guy.)

My prediction: Over

Erestor of the Council

So now we're resorting to bribery, eh? Never thought the Elves would stoop so low. And though I love Voting, there are far too few Voting cards in Simic to fill out this deck.

My prediction: Under

Galadriel, Elven-Queen

I like that we're combining two obscure mechanics on one card, along with some Elf support. Frankly, it's a clunky design. Still, if you can grok it, you get a powerful value engine no matter the result of the vote.

My prediction: Over

Gandalf, Westward Voyager

This is another wordy design, and I don't even get the flavor. I think it's good though, because each expensive spell either comes with a copy or draws you a card. Plus, you'll occasionally give your opponents free cards, which means you can guilt them next time they target you. A very weird commander, but I think it'll find its fans.

My prediction: Over

Radagast, Wizard of Wilds

I'm pretty sure Radagast doesn't have children, though if he did, they'd be getting the birds-and-the-beasts talk daily. As it stands, we get the minor upside of ward along with a way to generate free tokens. And once again, we'll see the power of obscure creature type support.

My prediction: Over

Saruman, the White Hand

Spellslinger commanders are almost always popular, so adding black to the usual Izzet formula should prove advantageous. I especially like Saruman with Casualty from Streets of New Capenna since it's a mechanic in Grixis colors found on instants and sorceries that sac your Armies for value, allowing you to create new fodder down the road. And don't forget: Amass Orcs is worded such that all your Amass cards from War of the Spark work with them, too.

All in all, this card is basically my precious.

My prediction: Over

Sauron, Lord of the Rings

Whoa. I was going to say, for eight mana, this dude better do a lot, and Sauron delivers. Note that it's a cast trigger, so even if your opponents counter him (sad face), at least you don't go entirely valueless (unless they cast Summary Dismissal, in which case, double sad face). If Sauron resolves, you get a huge trampler that threatens to accrue even more value. There is only one true Lord of the Ring, and he will share his power with you.

My prediction: Over

Bilbo, Birthday Celebrant

This version of Bilbo weaponizes lifegain, sure. But does he give confusing and possibly offensive birthday speeches?

We'll never know. All I know is, Bilbo's ability will activate for half of EDH players half as well as they should like. But that won't stop them from trying it.

My prediction: Over (Can't-Miss Pick)

Merry, Warden of Isengard + Pippin, Warden of Isengard

We'll evaluate these and our other Partners together, because you'd have to be a fool of a Took to run them solo.

The gameplan here is clear, and Food is well-supported thanks to this set and Throne of Eldraine.

The problem is our next Partner pair, which we'll evaluate in a moment. When we get there, I think you'll see the issue with poor Merry and Pip.

My prediction: Under

Sam, Loyal Attendant + Frodo, Adventurous Hobbit

Frodo and Sam also do the Food thing, though I'd argue they do it better than their buddies, both by turbocharging the Ring and by drawing cards. All four of these commanders come from the same pre-con, so players will have to choose. And yes, technically Bilbo comes from that deck, too. But Bilbo is pure lifegain, whereas Frodo/Sam and Merry/Pippin are all about Food. As they say in Middle-earth, that's too many cooks in the kitchen.

My prediction: Over

Aragorn, King of Gondor

Once Aragorn takes the monarchy, he doesn't give it up easily. He taps down your opponents' best blocker, then hangs back on defense to protect the crown. Plus, he buffers your life total with lifelink. Also, your opponents are disincentivized to kill him, because if they do, you can just recast him and take back the throne. I know we're not taking votes, but I'd vote for him to be my king any day.

My prediction: Over

Éowyn, Shieldmaiden

What if I told you you could have Grave Titan from the command zone, only it draws you cards and costs one less to cast? That's basically Éowyn, assuming you can untap with her. Jeskai Humans hasn't really had a go-to commander—until now, that is.

My prediction: Over

Recap

Over (19)

• Gwaihir, Greatest of the Eagles
• The Gaffer
• Gollum, Obsessed Stalker
• Boromir, Gondor's Hope
• Faramir, Steward of Gondor
• Lord of the Nazgûl
• Treebeard, Gracious Host
• Éomer, King of Rohan
• Círdan the Shipwright
• Elrond of the White Council
• Galadriel, Elven-Queen
• Gandalf, Westward Voyager
• Radagast, Wizard of Wilds
• Saruman, the White Hand
• Sauron, Lord of the Rings
• Sam, Loyal Attendant + Frodo, Adventurous Hobbit
• Aragorn, King of Gondor
• Éowyn, Shieldmaiden

Under (16)

• Beregond of the Guard
• Gilraen, Dúnedain Protector
• Monstrosity of the Lake
• Lobelia, Defender of Bag End
• Shelob, Dread Weaver
• Gimli of the Glittering Caves
• Arwen, Weaver of Hope
• Haldir, Lórien Lieutenant
• Legolas Greenleaf
• Gríma, Saruman's Footman
• The Balrog of Moria
• Farmer Cotton
• Denethor, Stone Seer
• Erestor of the Council
• Merry, Warden of Isengard + Pippin, Warden of Isengard

Can't-Miss Pick

• Bilbo, Birthday Celebrant

Well, 121 commanders later, we're finally finished with this set. If Commander Masters has this many commanders, I might need to publish a book on the subject. Details coming soon...