(Bilbo, Retired BurglarBilbo, Retired Burglar | Art by Livia Prima)

There Is Only One Lord of the Ring (And It's Not Me)

Time to return to Middle-earth (and not because we're filming The Hobbit). It's been a year since The Lord of the Rings (LOTR) collided with Magic: The Gathering. Let's see how my predictions fared.

As a refresher, I analyzed every new commander from LOTR last year (yes, all 100 or so of them) and predicted whether they'd end a year with Over or Under 1200 decks. If you want to learn more about my selections, you can read last year's articles here and here. Otherwise, keep reading, since I'll be quoting the choicest bits throughout.

Whew, that felt like all the exposition pre-Rivendell. Ready to actually get this Fellowship started?

Overall Impressions

• Total number of commanders: 125
• Total number of commander decks: 136,087
• Average commander deck count: 1,089
• Most decks: Sauron, the Dark Lord (15,708 decks)
• Fewest decks: Éomer of the Riddermark (8 decks)

Surprisingly, the average commander from this set fell short of the 1200 mark. Yet that number belies LOTR's true popularity, which was quite high. Maybe it was just The One RingThe One Ring fever, but it seemed like everyone was opening packs from this set.

From a successes standpoint, this set delivered on the feel and flavor of Middle-earth. The artwork is gorgeous, the mechanical references are resonant, and we get a comprehensive view of the scenery and cultures of Tolkien's masterwork. What's more, I think the designers did a great job appealing to fans of both the books and the films, without leaning too hard into either audience. They even represented the passage of time smartly by reserving some of the appendices content for the Commander product (e.g. Aragorn, King of GondorAragorn, King of Gondor and Éomer, King of RohanÉomer, King of Rohan. Overall, it's a fun visit to another IP that still feels like Magic—and far more so than most.

That said, I think the set's mechanics are its biggest flaw. Many players were iffy on the Ring-Temptation mechanic when it debuted, and playing with it didn't help overmuch. It's wordy, confusing for newer players, and not even flavorfully sound, since the Ring in the books was a source of power, yes, but corruption, too. Where, I ask, is my corruption?

Also, it needs to be said, there were far too many legends in this set. I get that Middle-earth has lots of celebs, but did we really need a Landroval card? Does anyone even remember who Landroval is? More is often better, but with a whopping 125 legendary creatures (the most for any single set, ever), many interesting commanders were overshadowed. We'll take a look at some of them soon. But first...

My Solid Selections

Let's begin with one of my two Can't-Miss Picks. I usually only have one per set, but in a set with this many commanders, I figured you'd cut me some slack.

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 7,875

Last year I called Shelob "instantly the best Spider typal commander we've ever had," and indeed, she eclipsed Ishkanah, GrafwidowIshkanah, Grafwidow by several thousand decks. Also neat to see players finding creative ways to take advantage of the Food token ability, such as Greta, Sweettooth ScourgeGreta, Sweettooth Scourge and Gyome, Master ChefGyome, Master Chef. A sweet commander—and our next one is even sweeter.

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 3,788

This was our other Can't-Miss Pick, and he got some excellent support from recent sets, including Kambal, Profiteering MayorKambal, Profiteering Mayor from Outlaws of Thunder Junction and Ocelot PrideOcelot Pride from Modern Horizons 3. Honestly, he probably didn't even need it. Last year, I predicted "Bilbo's ability will activate for half of EDH players half as well as they should like." I have no statistics on that, but it seems many players tried nonetheless.

The next correct Over I'd like to draw your attention to is...

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 8,254

After jokingly suggesting that players play Dirtwater WraithDirtwater Wraith to supplement their wraith count, here was my honest analysis:

"Lord of the NazgûlLord of the Nazgûlis an army-in-a-can, especially with cantrips, of which there's no shortage in blue."

Indeed, the cantrip theme is by far the most popular for this commander, with more than 1200 decks in that category alone. I mean, compare this to a similar commander like Talrand, Sky SummonerTalrand, Sky Summoner, which used to be the gold standard for spellslinger commanders. Prime example of power creep.

This next one surprised me...

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 1,208

That's just eight decks over the mark, which is about as close as it gets. You'd think a typal commander with a fairly novel ability would do better, so I wonder why this didn't. Yet maybe I answered my own question last year...

"Seven mana is expensive, but the payoff is undeniably sweet, especially if you've built out a board of big Ents—I mean, Treefolk."

Not the Ent/Treefolk thing—the seven-mana thing. Perhaps that was just too much mana for a commander to gain any more traction than the bare minimum, even in the game's best ramping color.

For my final solid selection, I'd like to turn your attention toward my favorite character from LOTR...

Just kidding. It's this guy...

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 12,815

Before we dig in, let's see what I wrote last year...

"Four-color commanders are rare, and this one is especially sweet. He just couldn't wait to be king."

Huh. That's pretty sparse, not to mention light on analysis. And I didn't even make a reference to the correct IP. But hey, cut me some slack—when you're reviewing this many commanders, you can't get verbose.

With a commander like this, you'd usually want to play as many five-color spells as possible to get maximum value from all four triggers. Aragorn is, however, missing black, and spells costing exactly WURG are rare (as noted in my terse analysis). Therefore, players got creative by playing as many two- and three-color commanders as possible. Just browse his page and see all that gold.

Alright, enough of the good stuff. Let's see where I erred. And in this set, I erred a lot.

My Big Mistakes

By percentage, my selections weren't too far off from usual this set. Yet still, 34 flubs is kind of a lot. The vast majority of them were Over predictions that went Under (28), leaving far fewer Unders going Over (6). Let's begin with one of the worst of the former.

My prediction: Over

Final deck count: 36

This is bad. I mean, this is really bad. And my reasoning for selecting it wasn't much better:

"Gimli wanted a single golden hair, but these options are much better."

Hindsight is indeed 20/20, but it's never foresight. These options aren't all that game-breaking, especially when you constantly need to swing with your 4/4 to get them. That pick was bad, and this one might've been worse...

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 98

I don't care to speculate who the real "Greatest of the Eagles" is, because I hate the Philadelphia Eagles with a burning passion. Plus, I'm not bummed about the pick so much as my methodology. Here's what I wrote:

"Despite not in fact being a snow cone, Gwaihir seems both snowbally and sweet. With enough 3+ power lifelinkers (or just recurring lifegain), I daresay this should be easy to trigger."

Sound logic, but I missed an obvious comparison: Griffin AerieGriffin Aerie. It's almost exactly the same card, yet it appears in less than 1% of EDH decks, and appeared in even less when I reviewed this set a year ago. Should've used that knowledge last year to adjust my pick. Moving on...

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 958

After predicting Ayula, Queen Among BearsAyula, Queen Among Bears incorrectly in the original Modern Horizons, I promised myself I'd never underestimate obscure typal commanders again. Plus, there was this to consider:

"The inside joke alone is worth the Over."

Yet still, Shadowfax came almost 300 decks short of the mark. I guess Horses really are just too undersupported. I mean, glancing through the Shadowfax page, I see Armored WarhorseArmored Warhorse appearing in 39% of decks. Yikes.

Now we move from horse to octopus.

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 1,293

Close. So close! If only 94 deckbuilders hadn't built this deck, I could've been right! Here was my argument against this commander:

"How the heck do you consistently draw cards on opponents' turns? Consecrated SphinxConsecrated Sphinx, Mind's EyeMind's Eye, and Faerie MastermindFaerie Mastermind are all I can come up with. Without them, The Watcher just watches."

The key word here is "consistently." All three of the cards I mentioned appear in most Watcher decks, but I purposely neglected to mention BrainstormBrainstorm, OptOpt, Frantic SearchFrantic Search, and similar cards, since they're all one-time activations. Yet still, all three of those cards appear in more than 66% of Watcher decks. I guess more people are up for the challenge than I thought.

For our final incorrect selection, let's bring in the source material's greatest character.

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 4,321

How did I get this prediction so very wrong? Let's start with last year's analysis...

"We be nice to them if they be nice to us! Problem is, Ring-tempting and land-sealing aren't nice enough to earn 1200."

Factually false. But, to be fair, there's really no overlap between either halves of this Venn diagram. Ring-tempting is good, free ramp is good, and when you combine them with more Ring-tempting (see Call of the RingCall of the Ring in 92% of Sméagol decks) and landfall (see Springheart NantukoSpringheart Nantuko in 63%), you start to get the picture. Either that, or you start hacking up a hairball like Gollum.

Recap

Correct Picks (85)

1. Gandalf the WhiteGandalf the White - Over (2,033 decks)
2. Fangorn, Tree ShepherdFangorn, Tree Shepherd - Over (1,208 decks)
3. Legolas, Master ArcherLegolas, Master Archer - Over (1,631 decks)
4. Lord of the NazgûlLord of the Nazgûl - Over (8,254 decks)
5. The Balrog, Durin's BaneThe Balrog, Durin's Bane - Over (1,498 decks)
6. Samwise GamgeeSamwise Gamgee - Over (2,064 decks)
7. King of the OathbreakersKing of the Oathbreakers - Over (2,228 decks)
8. Gandalf the GreyGandalf the Grey - Over (1,475 decks)
9. Shelob, Child of UngoliantShelob, Child of Ungoliant - Over, Can't Miss Pick! (7,875 decks)
10. Círdan the ShipwrightCírdan the Shipwright - Over (1,360 decks)
11. Galadriel, Elven-QueenGaladriel, Elven-Queen - Over (1,584 decks)
12. Saruman of Many ColorsSaruman of Many Colors - Over (3,104 decks)
13. Saruman, the White HandSaruman, the White Hand - Over (4,688 decks)
14. Sauron, Lord of the RingsSauron, Lord of the Rings - Over (2,619 decks)
15. Sauron, the Dark LordSauron, the Dark Lord - Over (15,708 decks)
16. Bilbo, Birthday CelebrantBilbo, Birthday Celebrant - Over, Can't Miss Pick! (3,788 decks)
17. Frodo, Adventurous HobbitFrodo, Adventurous Hobbit + Sam, Loyal AttendantSam, Loyal Attendant - Over (10,896 decks)
18. Aragorn, King of GondorAragorn, King of Gondor - Over (3,128 decks)
19. Éowyn, ShieldmaidenÉowyn, Shieldmaiden - Over (6,171 decks)
20. Aragorn, the UniterAragorn, the Uniter - Over (12,815 decks)
21. Tom BombadilTom Bombadil - Over (10,644 decks)
22. Beregond of the GuardBeregond of the Guard - Under (44 decks)
23. Bill the PonyBill the Pony - Under (423 decks)
24. Boromir, Warden of the TowerBoromir, Warden of the Tower - Under (63 decks)
25. Éowyn, Lady of RohanÉowyn, Lady of Rohan - Under (39 decks)
26. Faramir, Field CommanderFaramir, Field Commander - Under (23 decks)
27. Frodo, Determined HeroFrodo, Determined Hero - Under (286 decks)
28. Gandalf, White RiderGandalf, White Rider - Under (120 decks)
29. Gilraen, Dúnedain ProtectorGilraen, Dúnedain Protector - Under (61 decks)
30. Landroval, Horizon WitnessLandroval, Horizon Witness - Under (11 decks)
31. Rosie Cotton of South LaneRosie Cotton of South Lane - Under (144 decks)
32. Samwise the StoutheartedSamwise the Stouthearted - Under (51 decks)
33. Saradoc, Master of BucklandSaradoc, Master of Buckland - Under (45 decks)
34. Bill Ferny, Bree SwindlerBill Ferny, Bree Swindler - Under (214 decks)
35. Elrond, Lord of RivendellElrond, Lord of Rivendell - Under (40 decks)
36. Gandalf, Friend of the ShireGandalf, Friend of the Shire - Under (341 decks)
37. Meneldor, Swift SaviorMeneldor, Swift Savior - Under (55 decks)
38. Monstrosity of the LakeMonstrosity of the Lake - Under (20 decks)
39. Saruman the WhiteSaruman the White - Under (46 decks)
40. Gollum, Patient PlotterGollum, Patient Plotter - Under (129 decks)
41. Gorbag of Minas MorgulGorbag of Minas Morgul - Under (84 decks)
42. Gothmog, Morgul LieutenantGothmog, Morgul Lieutenant - Under (44 decks)
43. Gríma WormtongueGríma Wormtongue - Under (34 decks)
44. Lobelia, Defender of Bag EndLobelia, Defender of Bag End - Under (171 decks)
45. Lobelia Sackville-BagginsLobelia Sackville-Baggins - Under (39 decks)
46. Sauron, the NecromancerSauron, the Necromancer - Under (572 decks)
47. Shelob, Dread WeaverShelob, Dread Weaver - Under (113 decks)
48. Witch-king, Bringer of RuinWitch-king, Bringer of Ruin - Under (26 decks)
49. Éomer, Marshal of RohanÉomer, Marshal of Rohan - Under (81 decks)
50. Éomer of the RiddermarkÉomer of the Riddermark - Under (8 decks)
51. Erkenbrand, Lord of WestfoldErkenbrand, Lord of Westfold - Under (42 decks)
52. Gimli, Counter of KillsGimli, Counter of Kills - Under (125 decks)
53. Gimli of the Glittering CavesGimli of the Glittering Caves - Under (219 decks)
54. Grishnákh, Brash InstigatorGrishnákh, Brash Instigator - Under (24 decks)
55. Arwen, Weaver of HopeArwen, Weaver of Hope - Under (405 decks)
56. Celeborn the WiseCeleborn the Wise - Under (17 decks)
57. Elanor GardnerElanor Gardner - Under (38 decks)
58. Glorfindel, Dauntless RescuerGlorfindel, Dauntless Rescuer - Under (14 decks)
59. Haldir, Lórien LieutenantHaldir, Lórien Lieutenant - Under (67 decks)
60. Legolas GreenleafLegolas Greenleaf - Under (32 decks)
61. Meriadoc BrandybuckMeriadoc Brandybuck - Under (18 decks)
62. Quickbeam, Upstart EntQuickbeam, Upstart Ent - Under (46 decks)
63. Gwaihir the WindlordGwaihir the Windlord - Under (354 decks)
64. Prince Imrahil the FairPrince Imrahil the Fair - Under (152 decks)
65. Gríma, Saruman's FootmanGríma, Saruman's Footman - Under (333 decks)
66. Sharkey, Tyrant of the ShireSharkey, Tyrant of the Shire - Under (67 decks)
67. The Mouth of SauronThe Mouth of Sauron - Under (109 decks)
68. Mauhúr, Uruk-hai CaptainMauhúr, Uruk-hai Captain - Under (286 decks)
69. The Balrog, Flame of UdûnThe Balrog, Flame of Udûn - Under (21 decks)
70. The Balrog of MoriaThe Balrog of Moria - Under (24 decks)
71. Uglúk of the White HandUglúk of the White Hand - Under (213 decks)
72. Strider, Ranger of the NorthStrider, Ranger of the North - Under (79 decks)
73. Arwen, Mortal QueenArwen, Mortal Queen - Under (442 decks)
74. Butterbur, Bree InnkeeperButterbur, Bree Innkeeper - Under (31 decks)
75. Farmer CottonFarmer Cotton - Under (342 decks)
76. Frodo BagginsFrodo Baggins - Under (169 decks)
77. Denethor, Ruling StewardDenethor, Ruling Steward - Under (146 decks)
78. Bilbo, Retired BurglarBilbo, Retired Burglar - Under (337 decks)
79. Denethor, Stone SeerDenethor, Stone Seer - Under (23 decks)
80. Old Man WillowOld Man Willow - Under (141 decks)
81. Merry, Esquire of RohanMerry, Esquire of Rohan - Under (157 cards)
82. Théoden, King of RohanThéoden, King of Rohan - Under (466 decks)
83. Arwen UndómielArwen Undómiel - Under (445 decks)
84. Erestor of the CouncilErestor of the Council - Under (231 decks)
85. Legolas, Counter of KillsLegolas, Counter of Kills - Under (161 decks)

Incorrect Picks (34)

1. Goldberry, River-DaughterGoldberry, River-Daughter - Over Under (475 decks)
2. Gwaihir, Greatest of the EaglesGwaihir, Greatest of the Eagles - Over Under (98 decks)
3. The GafferThe Gaffer - Over Under (475 decks)
4. Ioreth of the Healing HouseIoreth of the Healing House - Over Under (128 decks)
5. Gollum, Obsessed StalkerGollum, Obsessed Stalker - Over Under (1056 decks)
6. Gollum, Scheming GuideGollum, Scheming Guide - Over Under (237 decks)
7. Witch-king of AngmarWitch-king of Angmar - Over Under (634 decks)
8. Glóin, Dwarf EmissaryGlóin, Dwarf Emissary - Over Under (120 decks)
9. Galadriel, Gift-GiverGaladriel, Gift-Giver - Over Under (36 decks)
10. Peregrin TookPeregrin Took - Over Under (280 decks)
11. Radagast the BrownRadagast the Brown - Over Under (588 decks)
12. Boromir, Gondor's HopeBoromir, Gondor's Hope - Over Under (107 decks)
13. Faramir, Prince of IthilienFaramir, Prince of Ithilien - Over Under (459 decks)
14. Faramir, Steward of GondorFaramir, Steward of Gondor - Over Under (241 decks)
15. Pippin, Guard of the CitadelPippin, Guard of the Citadel - Over Under (79 decks)
16. Sauron, the Lidless EyeSauron, the Lidless Eye - Over Under (310 decks)
17. Shagrat, Loot BearerShagrat, Loot Bearer - Over Under (568 decks)
18. Gimli, Mournful AvengerGimli, Mournful Avenger - Over Under (592 decks)
19. Aragorn and Arwen, WedAragorn and Arwen, Wed - Over Under (489 decks)
20. Aragorn, Company LeaderAragorn, Company Leader - Over Under (161 decks)
21. Treebeard, Gracious HostTreebeard, Gracious Host - Over Under (1123 decks)
22. Lotho, Corrupt ShirriffLotho, Corrupt Shirriff - Over Under (913 decks)
23. Éomer, King of RohanÉomer, King of Rohan - Over Under (306 decks)
24. Éowyn, Fearless KnightÉowyn, Fearless Knight - Over Under (185 decks)
25. Shadowfax, Lord of HorsesShadowfax, Lord of Horses - Over Under (958 decks)
26. Elrond of the White CouncilElrond of the White Council - Over Under (412 decks)
27. Gandalf, Westward VoyagerGandalf, Westward Voyager - Over Under (625 decks)
28. Radagast, Wizard of WildsRadagast, Wizard of Wilds - Over Under (445 decks)
29. The Watcher in the WaterThe Watcher in the Water - Under Over (1,293 decks)
30. Frodo, Sauron's BaneFrodo, Sauron's Bane - Under Over (2,698 decks)
31. Sméagol, Helpful GuideSméagol, Helpful Guide - Under Over (4,321 decks)
32. Elrond, Master of HealingElrond, Master of Healing - Under Over (1,547 decks)
33. Galadriel of LothlórienGaladriel of Lothlórien - Under Over (2,839 decks)
34. Merry, Warden of IsengardMerry, Warden of Isengard + Pippin, Warden of IsengardPippin, Warden of Isengard - Under Over (2,661 decks)

My Lord of the Rings Correct Prediction Percentage: 71%

My Overall Correct Prediction Percentage: 75%

A dip below my usual average, and a slight decline on the upward trajectory of MOM: The Aftermath, yet not a complete disaster. I've done my part. Now it's up to Post Malone to do his and cast The One RingThe One Ring into the fires from whence it came. We're all counting on you, Post.

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Kyle Massa

Kyle A. Massa is a writer and avid Magic player living somewhere in upstate New York with his wife, their daughter, and three wild animals. His current favorite card is Flubs, the Fool. Kyle can be found on Twitter @mindofkyleam.