Kellan, the KidKellan, the Kid | Art by Magali Villeneuve
We're back with another edition of The Over/Under, the article series where we return to the old west to review the performance of tiny anthropomorphic skeletons dancing on saloon pianos.
...Well, not exactly. But we are going commander-by-commander to see which went Over or Under our line of 1,200 decks. You can review my predictions from last year here or forge ahead, since I'll be re-sharing the finer points throughout.
Ready? Let's begin!
Overall Thoughts on Outlaws of Thunder Junction
They say distance makes the heart grow fonder, and that was certainly the case for me and this set. I liked it a decent amount when it dropped, and I've only grown to enjoy it more in the year following.
I know the implementation of the western theme was somewhat controversial, but for me, it worked. It was fun to see characters from Magic's history start new lives out on the plains. Even villains I'd almost forgotten about, like Kaervek, the PunisherKaervek, the Punisher, got a second chance in Thunder Junction.
That said, though the mechanics fit the world, I can't say they worked flawlessly. The whole outlaw thing was a personal pet peeve, mostly because I still can't remember what the heck an outlaw is. The best memory-trick acronym I heard was "WARM-P," but that's just nasty.
Furthermore, one of the set's other big mechanics, Mounts, didn't really hit, either. They're a better take on Vehicles, in my opinion, and they even made a comeback in our last set, Aetherdrift. Yet still, players seemed lukewarm on the mechanic at best.
And then there were crimes and plotting, both of which fared far better. The former was an intuitive flavorful treat, and the latter provided a satisfying riff on foretell. Plus, both appeared on enough commanders to feel like they were well-represented.
...Unlike Mercenary tokens, which only appeared on two commanders, neither of which went Over. Not every mechanic is going to be a headliner, true, and there's rarely much design space left in sets these days, yes, but it still felt like an underutilized idea to me. These tokens played out a whole lot better than the whole outlaw thing, for example, yet they appear on half as many commanders.
And so, overall, I'd have to label Outlaws of Thunder Junction as a flawed success. It wasn't my favorite set of the year (we'll get to that in a few months), but it was pretty darn close.
Now let's see if my enthusiasm matched the player base at large.
- Total number of commanders: 52
- Total number of commander decks: 140,678
- Average commander deck count: 2,758
- Most decks: Obeka, Splitter of SecondsObeka, Splitter of Seconds (12,976 decks)
- Fewest decks: Jolene, Plundering PugilistJolene, Plundering Pugilist (125 decks)
I usually begin this part of these articles with the above stats, but in the spirit of the wild west, I decided to get a little wild.
As you can see, this was a popular set. 140k commanders is more than any of the previous three sets (Murders at Karlov Manor, Lost Caverns of Ixalan, and Doctor Who). In fact, OTJ somehow yielded even more commander decks than Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth.
Why is that impressive? Because LOTR had a whopping 125 commanders, which is by far the most in Magic history (up to that point). OTJ had half that, yet still edged out the hobbits and co. by a few hundred.
So what does all this tell us? Are commander players outlaws at heart? Do we love saloons more than we care to admit? Were Oko's ripped abs too risqué to put on booster packs?
Let's take a closer look at our commanders to answer (some of) those questions.
My Solid Selections
Gotta admit, many of this set's predictions were pretty easy. Like this one:
Last year's prediction: Over
Final deck count: 12,976
As mentioned a few paragraphs ago, Obeka, Splitter of SecondsObeka, Splitter of Seconds was the set's most popular commander. That distinction usually belongs to a legend from the Commander product, but not here. Since Obeka's all about time manipulation, let's look back in time to my analysis from last year.
"[Obeka is] basically a souped-up Paradox HazeParadox Haze from the command zone, which makes cards like As ForetoldAs Foretold, Court of EmberethCourt of Embereth, and Court of IreCourt of Ire go nuts. I haven't liked an Ogre this much since Shrek."
And I still don't. And hey, but the way, I called all three of those cards hitting the High Synergy list. I mention that just to impress you before we get to my mistakes, which were many. But we're not done with the successes just yet!
Last year's prediction: Over
Final deck count: 4,106
My favorite mayor is the mayor of the hut tub committee (kudos if you get that reference). Still, this one isn't bad. Here's what I had to say about Kambal, Profiteering MayorKambal, Profiteering Mayor last year:
"[Kambal's] effect is contingent on opposing actions, which is normally a red flag. I'm less hesitant here, however, since pretty much every EDH deck generates tokens. Plus, if your opponents won't make their own, you can force them with cards like Get LostGet Lost, Declaration in StoneDeclaration in Stone, and Hunted HorrorHunted Horror. Very cool card."
It's also a very weird card, and one I wasn't quite dreaming big enough with. Intrepid internet deckbuilders have uncovered all sorts of niche tech to make this Mayor tick, including Marching DuodroneMarching Duodrone, Tribute to HorobiTribute to Horobi, and Combat CalligrapherCombat Calligrapher, none of which I had ever heard of until now. Thanks for the education, EDHREC.
And now for our next commander...Shhh!
Last year's prediction: Over
Final deck count: 1,861
To be honest, I wasn't entirely confident in this pick for Vraska, the SilencerVraska, the Silencer, as you might be able to tell...
"While this ability may seem underwhelming, it's actually quite similar to Shelob, Child of UngoliantShelob, Child of Ungoliant and Myrkul, Lord of BonesMyrkul, Lord of Bones, both of which are wildly popular. Although the petrified creatures lose their card types, they won't lose their abilities, meaning you can do stuff like kill a Beast WhispererBeast Whisperer, then reap the rewards.
There's a chance players won't dig a third commander in this space, but for now, I'm going to play it safe—unlike the patrons of the saloon in the artwork."
Once again, we see that no commander commands a monopoly on any given theme or design, no matter how popular they might be. Also, Treasure is fun.
Alright, you get the idea. I had some decent picks. But how about those that didn't go so decent? I'm glad you asked.
My Biggest Blunders
Look, I always make a few. Like the NFL Draft, it comes with the territory. (P.S., I'm writing this on the eve of said draft, so if my New York Giants do anything stupid, don't say I didn't warn you.)
My prediction: Over
Final deck count: 542
Yikes. Annie Flash, the VeteranAnnie Flash, the Veteran couldn't even make it halfway. First, let's review my take.
"Sun TitanSun Titan from the command zone, anyone? She also serves as an excellent pilot for Vehicles and/or rider for Mounts, making her one heck of an easy pick."
Problem is, the Mounts didn't really hit, and aside from Shorikai, Genesis EngineShorikai, Genesis Engine, Vehicles don't perform, either. The Sun TitanSun Titan comp still feels accurate, but I suppose without additional triggers from attacking, it's just not that appealing.
Speaking of not appealing...
My prediction: Over
Final deck count: 657
What happened with Bruse Tarl, Roving RancherBruse Tarl, Roving Rancher? Don't we like portly bald fellows riding giant oxen like animatronic bulls at the local downtown bar during happy hour?
No? Well, I can't imagine why—and I couldn't last year, either.
"Finally, the Oxen typal commander we've all been waiting for. Plus, Bruse draws cards and makes tokens. Get your Pillarfield OxPillarfield Ox ready."
Look, when Makindi OxMakindi Ox appears in a commander's High Synergy list, you know it's slim pickins'. Yet still, I was under the impression there was an audience for pretty much every type in Magic. Seems I was wrong about that—or maybe we just need more ranch-hands in the community.
But hey, it wasn't just Overs that went Under. How about some Unders that went Over?
Last year's prediction: Under
Final deck count: 2,919
What, exactly, was I thinking with Eris, Roar of the StormEris, Roar of the Storm? Something along these lines:
"There's some tension in this design, since Prowess best rewards single-mana spells, yet Eris's cost-reduction clause demands a variety of costs. Will that be enough?
For answers, I consulted the Consiglieres again."
(Who you'll remember as my college chums who I periodically bother for takes on commanders when I can't come up with any myself, and subsequently never share my earnings from these articles with. Thanks again, fellas!)
"While Jason and Shane both acknowledged Eris's potency, they were hesitant to cosign an Over, since the setup cost is steep and another commander from this precon is getting more online interest. That's enough for me."
I suppose I could blame my friends, but that seems unfriendly. Plus, I should've seen it coming, since commanders from the Commander product pretty much always go Over.
...Except for this one.
My prediction: Over
Final deck count: 1,056
Another incorrect pick for Kirri, Talented SproutKirri, Talented Sprout, but at least I had some cutting-edge analysis to back it up:
"Botanists rejoice."
Wait, what? That's all I wrote? "Botanists rejoice," then slap an Over on that thing?
Hmm, perhaps I should've thought this through more. Like, maybe there aren't that many botanists playing Magic. (We've already established there aren't many ranch-hands.)
Furthermore, Plants are a shallow type, so you're really leaning on Treefolk, yet Treefolk aren't the most plentiful in these colors, either. Wish I'd considered that instead of trying to be all pithy, but so it goes.
And finally, I've saved the blunderiest blunder for last.
My prediction: Over
Final deck count: 511
Look, in and of itself, this isn't that bad of a pick. But keep reading and you'll see the problem with Ertha Jo, Frontier MentorErtha Jo, Frontier Mentor.
"Names don't get much more western than "Ertha Jo." And not only does Ertha's ability work with her token—it doubles your pings from Prodigal PyromancerProdigal Pyromancer, your copies from Kiki-Jiki, Mirror BreakerKiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker, and your stolen turns from MindslaverMindslaver (though you'll technically need to select multiple opponents). I like this card so much, I'm about to do something I've never done for an uncommon...
My prediction: Over (Can't-Miss Pick)"
Well I'm never doing that again. Yes, I gave this my coveted Can't-Miss label, and it didn't even get halfway. Furthermore, I'll remind you that this is my second consecutive bungle of the CMP, since I missed with Izoni, Center of the WebIzoni, Center of the Web in MKM.
Should I retire this gimmick to spare myself further embarrassment? Perhaps. Or maybe I'll just rename it my "Might-Miss Pick."
Recap
Correct Picks (37)
- Fblthp, Lost on the RangeFblthp, Lost on the Range - Over (1,215 decks)
- Geralf, the FleshwrightGeralf, the Fleshwright - Over (1,684 decks)
- Gisa, the HellraiserGisa, the Hellraiser - Over (3,799 decks)
- Tinybones, the PickpocketTinybones, the Pickpocket - Over (1,976 decks)
- Bristly Bill, Spine SowerBristly Bill, Spine Sower - Over (3,897 decks)
- Satoru, the InfiltratorSatoru, the Infiltrator - Over (1,737 decks)
- Akul the UnrepentantAkul the Unrepentant - Over (1,602 decks)
- Laughing Jasper FlintLaughing Jasper Flint - Over (4,101 decks)
- Rakdos, the MuscleRakdos, the Muscle - Over (3,929 decks)
- Roxanne, Starfall SavantRoxanne, Starfall Savant - Over (5,754 decks)
- Kambal, Profiteering MayorKambal, Profiteering Mayor - Over (4,106 decks)
- Lilah, Undefeated SlickshotLilah, Undefeated Slickshot - Over (1,707 decks)
- Stella Lee, Wild CardStella Lee, Wild Card - Over (11,158 decks)
- The Gitrog, Ravenous RideThe Gitrog, Ravenous Ride - Over (6,052 decks)
- Vraska, the SilencerVraska, the Silencer - Over (1,861 decks)
- Taii Wakeen, Perfect ShotTaii Wakeen, Perfect Shot - Over (3,557 decks)
- Bonny Pall, ClearcutterBonny Pall, Clearcutter - Over (2,679 decks)
- Obeka, Splitter of SecondsObeka, Splitter of Seconds - Over (12,976 decks)
- Ghired, Mirror of the WildsGhired, Mirror of the Wilds - Over (3,202 decks)
- Yuma, Proud ProtectorYuma, Proud Protector - Over (6,042 decks)
- Kellan, the KidKellan, the Kid - Over (4,843 decks)
- Olivia, Opulent OutlawOlivia, Opulent Outlaw - Over (4,083 decks)
- Vihaan, GoldwakerVihaan, Goldwaker - Over (5,771 decks)
- Loot, the Key to EverythingLoot, the Key to Everything - Over (4,268 decks)
- Riku of Many PathsRiku of Many Paths - Over (4,063 decks)
- Felix Five-BootsFelix Five-Boots - Over (4,656 decks)
- Gonti, Canny AcquisitorGonti, Canny Acquisitor - Over (7,868 decks)
- Fortune, Loyal SteedFortune, Loyal Steed - Under (127 decks)
- Vadmir, New BloodVadmir, New Blood - Under (125 decks)
- Jem Lightfoote, Sky ExplorerJem Lightfoote, Sky Explorer - Under (164 decks)
- Lazav, Familiar StrangerLazav, Familiar Stranger - Under (501 decks)
- Vial Smasher, Gleeful GrenadierVial Smasher, Gleeful Grenadier - Under (357 decks)
- Jolene, Plundering PugilistJolene, Plundering Pugilist - Under (125 decks)
- Baron Bertram GraywaterBaron Bertram Graywater - Under (221 decks)
- Kraum, Violent CacophonyKraum, Violent Cacophony - Under (333 decks)
- Malcolm, the EyesMalcolm, the Eyes - Under (297 decks)
- Honest RutsteinHonest Rutstein - Under (718 decks)
Incorrect Picks (15)
- Kaervek, the PunisherKaervek, the Punisher -
OverUnder (779 decks) - Calamity, Galloping InfernoCalamity, Galloping Inferno -
OverUnder (1,162 decks) - Magda, the HoardmasterMagda, the Hoardmaster -
OverUnder (806 decks) - Miriam, Herd WhispererMiriam, Herd Whisperer -
OverUnder (790 decks) - Selvala, Eager TrailblazerSelvala, Eager Trailblazer -
OverUnder (531 decks) - Wylie Duke, Atiin HeroWylie Duke, Atiin Hero -
OverUnder (950 decks) - Breeches, the BlastmakerBreeches, the Blastmaker -
OverUnder (752 decks) - Doc Aurlock, Grizzled GeniusDoc Aurlock, Grizzled Genius -
OverUnder (858 decks) - Bruse Tarl, Roving RancherBruse Tarl, Roving Rancher -
OverUnder (657 decks) - Ertha Jo, Frontier MentorErtha Jo, Frontier Mentor -
OverUnder (511 decks) - Annie Flash, the VeteranAnnie Flash, the Veteran -
OverUnder (542 decks) - Kirri, Talented SproutKirri, Talented Sprout -
OverUnder (1,056 decks) - Eris, Roar of the StormEris, Roar of the Storm -
UnderOver (2,919 decks) - Eriette, the BeguilerEriette, the Beguiler -
UnderOver (3,357 decks) - Marchesa, Dealer of DeathMarchesa, Dealer of Death -
UnderOver (3,965 decks)
My Outlaws of Thunder Junction Correct Prediction Percentage: 71%
My Overall Correct Prediction Percentage: 74%
Though the whole Can't-Miss Pick thing is still a bummer, we came out alright overall. Can I make it three mistakes in a row? Check back next time!
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