Family's Favor | Art by Alexander Mokhov

Hidin' on the Backstreets

Call it a streetcar named New Capenna. We're back, baby!

In this edition of the Over/Under, we'll review my picks for the commanders of Streets of New Capenna. My line was 600 decks, and I assigned an "Over" or "Under" to each, the latter meaning I predicted they'd end one year with more than 600 decks, and the former, fewer. (I screenshot all these results on the set's one-year anniversary, so that's where all these numbers come from.)

You can read last year's article here, but no need if you don't have the time—I'll be referencing it throughout this one.

The Easy Overs

I always like to begin these reviews with my successes, just so you don't think I'm a complete schlub.

My predictions: Overs for all three

Final deck counts: 7,757, 7,041, and 6,429, respectively

Giada isn't just the most popular commander from this set—she's one of the most popular commanders in the format (#36 overall, in case you were curious). "Toolbox" and Jetmir are no slouches either, ranking 41 and 64, respectively. It's no surprise for a triple-color set, and it's a pattern we'll see throughout this review. Which brings me to our next batch...

My predictions: Overs for all three

Final deck counts: 5,768, 5,506, and 5,329, respectively

No surprises here, either. Last year, I noted Anhelo's synergy with Zombie tokens, and indeed we see cards like Jadar, Ghoulcaller of Nephalia and Army of the Damned dominating his decks. I also wrote "there's so much one can do with Raffine." We see that on display with its themes, which range from Wheels to Reanimator to Rat Colony, for some reason.

Tivit is the only surprise here, insofar as it didn't perform quite as well as I thought it would. Not that 5,329 decks is anything to scoff at—I just thought it would be the set's most popular, hence why I awarded it my Can't-Miss Pick.

Next up, three more Overs that probably surprised no one.

My predictions: Overs for all three

Final deck counts: 4,908, 4,251, and 3,760, respectively

I like Ziatora sheerly because it works great with Phytotitan, a card I've been forcing (without success, mind you) for years. Queza and Jinnie are less up my alley, though both are potent. I noted that the former "might not eclipse Nekusar," which is its closest competition, and indeed, Queza only got halfway there. Still pretty good for an uncommon!

My predictions: Overs for all three

Final deck counts: 3,587, 3,323, and 3,114, respectively

If you can't tell by now, there were a lot of Overs in this set. Falco was a shoe-in, while The Beamtown Bullies seemed like a bit of a longshot, at least at the time. Here's what I wrote last year:

"Every aspect of this card is strange, from the name to the effect. Ideally, you're giving your opponents horrible cards such as Boldwyr Heavyweights, Eater of Days, and Leveler. That makes for a novel strategy, though certainly fragile. I'm going to give it an Over in the hopes that this becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and people build some super cool decks. Don't let me down!"

Hey, thanks for not letting me down. All three of the cards I mentioned appear in the Bullies' Top Cards, along with Soulgorger Orgg, a card I've literally never heard of until this moment.

And then there's Ognis, which I had less-than-nice things to say about last year.

"I was prepared to roast this card, but it seems players are actually super into it...I won't be playing it, but it seems many other players will."

It's funny trying to recall my thought processes from 12+ months ago. I look at this card now and see an obvious Over. Yet back in '22, I had my doubts. Fortunately, I ended up making the right decision, despite my bias.

My predictions: Overs for all three

Final deck counts: 3,107, 3,094, and 2,582, respectively

Well, I started Kamiz's analysis with a drive-by of an entire archetype.

"Most players on r/EDH have suggested building Kamiz as an Infect deck, which proves their minds are in the gutter."

Surprisingly, the average Kamiz deck appears not to be Infect-focused at all, despite the addition of the new Toxic mechanic from Phyrexia: All Will Be One earlier this winter. My faith in humanity has been restored.

The rest of our Overs come from the Commander product.

My predictions: Overs for all three

Final deck counts: 1811, 1433, and 1277, respectively

My only regret about my Jolene analysis was forgetting to weave in a joke referencing the Dolly Parton song. Unfortunately, Dolly never wrote songs about people named Syrix or Perrie, so we'll move on.

And now for our last round of Easy Overs...

My predictions: Overs for all three

Final deck counts: 1266, 1143, and 1011, respectively

Kitt was the face of a Commander deck, so 1,266 decks is kind of a shoddy performance, all things considered. I suspect that's because going wide and Goad don't exactly mesh like peanut butter and chocolate.

Vazi and Mari are at least more cohesive, with the former being a perfect Pillowfort commander and the latter supporting not one, not two, but three obscure types (not to be confused with Obscura). No surprise to see them both clearing the mark by almost 2x.

That's it for our Overs. Now let's move on to...

The Easy Unders

Just three of these this time around.

My predictions: Unders for all three

Final deck counts: 476, 438, and 298, respectively

It was easy to poke holes in Denry's candidacy. As I wrote last year, "the pool of ability counters is relatively shallow." Seems players agreed with me there.

Parnesse was just as easy to question. Here's a snippet of last year's analysis...

"Parnesse seems super finicky to me. Not only do you need spells to copy, you also need spells that are worth giving to your opponents as free copies."

I think that's indicated in her High Synergy and Top Cards lists; they're mostly enchantments and cost-reducers, yet not many actual instants and sorceries.

Finally, Errant just seemed like a plain misfire, even when it came out.

"Flash, defender, and haste are perhaps the weirdest three keywords to ever appear on a card together."

It's all been easy so far. Now let's see where I screwed up.

The Ill-Advised Over

This one still shocks me.

My prediction: Over

Final deck count: 549

Last year's analysis of this card began with a power ranking:

"In terms of famous Bennies, [Bennie Bracks] might reach the likes of Bennie Salazar, Bennie and the Jets, and Beni from The Mummy."

In hindsight, I don't think anyone has any idea who Bennie Salazar is. Fortunately, I closed with a more accessible joke.

"Seems like a fun and viable option for mono-white token enthusiasts. I don't always give Overs to mono-white commanders, but when I do, I prefer Bennies."

Nonetheless, I was incorrect. Looking at Bennie's EDHREC page, the support for the strategy is certainly there. So then why the Under?

I ran the question past my pal Jason, and he suggested Bennie might've been overshadowed by go-wide commanders with more colors, such as Jinnie Fay, Jetmir's Second and Jetmir, Nexus of Revels. It's a fine theory, so we'll go with it. Thanks, Jason!

That was my only incorrect Over of the set—though certainly not my only mistake.

The Egregious Unders

Now be nice...

My predictions: Unders for all three

Final deck counts: 617, 753, and 857, respectively

Stupid Urabrask went Over by a paltry 17 decks! My main gripe with it had to do with table politics.

"You get a little value from your personal Howling Mine, sure, but when your opponent exiles their Infernal Grasp to your Urabrask, we all know what they're going to target."

Point being, people are going to target you because this effect is annoying. However, I think I undervalued the fact that it's fairly reliable card draw on a mono-red commander, which we don't see all that frequently.

My evaluation of Phabine had nothing whatsoever to do with Magic. Here it is in its entirety:

"This Cat is too humanoid. It's giving me unpleasant flashbacks to the 2019 monstrosity known as Tom Hooper's Cats. Can you see why I'm creeped out? I don't have much else to say. I just hope this card goes Under, so I don't have to look at it."

Guess I'll have to look at it some more. Longtime readers will remember my distaste for Group Hug commanders, so probably not a surprise I missed this one.

Finally, I'm still a little perplexed by the success of Bess. Last year I wrote the following:

"Bess is ultimately just an anthem from the command zone. That's powerful, but also kind of vanilla, especially considering the power of other commanders in this set."

All true, yet not true enough. I think this card's achievement indicates a bigger trend: This set was hugely popular, from bottom to top.

My predictions: Unders for all three

Final deck counts: 1,079, 1,102, and 1,111, respectively

I'll be honest, readers—I just plain misunderstood Rigo.

"At most, you're getting one extra card per combat, and your setup cost requires packing your deck with tiny creatures."

You actually get a card for each player or planeswalker you attack, making this dude far better than I initially thought. Look, when you're pumping out analysis on 30+ new commanders as fast as possible, you're gonna miss some stuff.

My Under on Oskar was less excusable.

"Unlike cards with Madness, [Oskar] does not reduce the cost of the discarded cards. That makes me want to play all cheap spells, yet his cost reduction ability encourages a more varied mana curve. Seems a bit at odds with himself—and he's not even three colors!"

I totally neglected to acknowledge the surplus of cards with lower alternate costs than their printed ones, such as Archfiend of Ifnir, Curator of Mysteries, and Overwhelming Remorse. In fact, when I read this card again for this article, I was like, "Huh. I might actually build this deck."

Lagrella is a card I still don't get. I described it as "Grasp of Fate in the command zone," which doesn't seem like the most exciting thing I've ever heard of. If anyone can explain its success, please enlighten me.

My predictions: Unders for all three

Final deck counts: 1,137, 1,201, and 1,246 decks, respectively

Like Lagrella, Kros is still a mystery to me, as you can probably tell from last year's thoughts.

"The flavor is fun, but a shield counter seems too good to give away for free."

That didn't stop 1,137 players from building the deck, so perhaps I overvalued shield counters. Either that or people just really love hiring cats for government jobs.

Next up, here are my thoughts on Jaxis:

"We already have popular mono-red copying commanders in Rionya, Fire Dancer, Feldon of the Third Path, and Delina, Wild Mage. I can't imagine a fourth variation on this theme achieving much, especially one that starts so many tavern brawls."

I always get into trouble when I suggest we can't have multiple popular commanders in the same archetype. EDH is a huge format, so that increasingly seems to be untrue. I'll keep it in mind for the future.

That said, I still don't get why this next one is popular.

"I know we're long past April Fools' Day, but are we sure [Mr. Orfeo] isn't an Un- card? I mean, Mr. Orfeo? Is he somebody's dad? And 'The Boulder'? Is he a WWE Wrestler?...Bizarre name notwithstanding, nobody's playing Mr. Orfeo over Mr. Xenagos."

Well, he didn't eclipse Xenagos, God of Revels, but 1,246 is still a lot of decks, especially for an uncommon Rhino humanoid. Perhaps if I'd read the flavor text I would've learned not to underestimate this dude.

Speaking of popular uncommon commanders, I'd now like to highlight two others.

My predictions: Unders for both

Final deck counts: 1,293 and 3,472, respectively

Look, Rocco I get. You can go fetch busted stuff for your combo decks at will. Plus, he's a caterer, which has to count for something. It's Cormela that stumped me.

"Fixing and ramp is nice, but it's less appealing when limited to instants and sorceries. Though the death clause is a fine consolation prize, it's disappointing in a format as powerful as EDH."

After browsing her decklists, I totally get it now; Cormela is a Storm commander. No wonder it surpassed 600!

Rounding out the worst of my worst...

My prediction: Under

Final deck count: 821

My error was obvious from my evaluation.

"[Toluz is] clearly a strong card, but as they say so often on The Bachelor, I'm going with my gut. And my gut says, 'Bllrrpp,' which means, "I doubt 600 players want Bag of Holding as their commander."

Anytime a writer invokes The Bachelor as justification for a decision, you know they're going to be wrong.

Recap

Correct Picks (24)

• Giada, Font of Hope - Over
• Mari, the Killing Quill - Over
• Syrix, Carrier of the Flame - Over
• Jolene, the Plunder Queen - Over
• Kamiz, Obscura Oculus - Over
• Queza, Augur of Agonies - Over
• Raffine, Scheming Seer - Over
• Tivit, Seller of Secrets - Over
• Anhelo, the Painter - Over
• Evelyn, the Covetous - Over
• Lord Xander, the Collector - Over
• Henzie "Toolbox" Torre - Over
• Ognis, the Dragon's Lash - Over
• The Beamtown Bullies - Over
• Vazi, Keen Negotiator - Over
• Ziatora, the Incinerator - Over
• Jetmir, Nexus of Revels - Over
• Jinnie Fay, Jetmir's Second - Over
• Kitt Kanto, Mayhem Diva - Over
• Falco Spara, Pactweaver - Over
• Perrie, the Pulverizer - Over
• Errant, Street Artist - Under
• Denry Klin, Editor in Chief - Under
• Parnesse, the Subtle Brush - Under

Incorrect Picks (13)

• Bennie Bracks, Zoologist Over Under
• Jaxis, the Troublemaker - Under Over
• Urabrask, Heretic Praetor - Under Over
• Oskar, Rubbish Reclaimer - Under Over
• Bess, Soul Nourisher - Under Over
• Toluz, Clever Conductor - Under Over
• Cormela, Glamour Thief - Under Over
• Mr. Orfeo, the Boulder - Under Over
• Phabine, Boss's Confidant - Under Over
• Rocco, Cabaretti Caterer - Under Over
• Kros, Defense Contractor - Under Over
• Lagrella, the Magpie - Under Over
• Rigo, Streetwise Mentor - Under Over

My Streets of New Capenna Correct Prediction Percentage: 65%

My Overall Correct Prediction Percentage: 75%

Not exactly my best showing. In fact, the only times I've done worse were at the start of this article series, with Guilds of Ravnica and Ravnica Allegiance (50% and 63%, respectively). Clearly, I have an issue with cityscapes. I'll keep working on that. See you on the next one!