Judith, Carnage ConnoisseurJudith, Carnage Connoisseur | Art by Jodie Muir

Murder in the First-Degree

New year, old set.

In our first edition of The Over/Under of 2025, we're taking a look back at Murders at Karlov Manor. But before we get into that, here's a reminder: This series is all about prognostication.

Before every set drops, I try to predict how popular each new commander will become based on a line of 1,200 decks.

If I think the commander will lead more than that many at the end of one year, it gets an "Over." If not, "Under." There's also one Can't-Miss Pick, which is my most confident selection of the set.

It's already been a year since MKM dropped, so let's take a look back at this cold case, shall we?

You can review last year's article right here, but no worries if you'd rather proceed—I'll be quoting pertinent details throughout. Now let's get on the case!

Overall Impressions

The cynical players out there will tell you Wizards pumps out a Ravnica set whenever they need a hit. Well, this was technically a Ravnica set, but it wasn't a hit. Just check out these stats:

• Total number of commanders: 43
• Total number of commander decks: 85,717
• Average commander deck count:1,993
• Most decks: Voja, Jaws of the ConclaveVoja, Jaws of the Conclave (12,620 decks)
• Fewest decks: Headliner ScarlettHeadliner Scarlett (82 decks)

For reference Lost Caverns of Ixalan and Wilds of Eldraine both had far higher average deck counts. Plus, those sets contained several uncommon legends, which often reduce the overall average. MKM didn't have that obstacle, yet still couldn't keep up.

The results were mixed from a flavor standpoint as well, with many folks criticizing MKM's perhaps underdeveloped themes.

For example, many creatures were designated detectives simply by their type lines and headwear, rather than something more inspired.

Take Melek, Reforged ResearcherMelek, Reforged Researcher as an example. Other than its type and the general inquisitiveness in the art, what about this card screams "detective" to you?

That said, MKM still delivered on its themes in some loud ways. A Killer Among UsA Killer Among Us was perhaps the set's greatest success in this regard.

I mean, yes, I know it's a bit of a meme that appears in just 417 decks. But sometimes when it comes to flavor, it's the thought that counts. Chalk OutlineChalk Outline was another flavor win, offering some fun gameplay considerations to boot.

Murders at Karlov Manor boasted a fine crop of commanders, too. From Judith, Carnage ConnoisseurJudith, Carnage Connoisseur to Anzrag, the Quake-MoleAnzrag, the Quake-Mole and beyond, there were several innovative designs.

We even got some fun callbacks to retro mechanics, like the allusion to Battalion on Aurelia, the Law AboveAurelia, the Law Above or the direct use of Wither on Massacre Girl, Known KillerMassacre Girl, Known Killer. Furthermore, Clues were everywhere, as befit the milieu, and they were quite well implemented on Teysa, Opulent OligarchTeysa, Opulent Oligarch in particular.

And lest we forget The Pride of Hull CladeThe Pride of Hull Clade, which is one of the weirder commanders ever printed.

The Clue implementation was less successful, and I don't mean the tokens—I mean the board game crossover. Only Commander MustardCommander Mustard managed to go Over, and that was likely because there are so few Soldier kindred commanders out there as it is.

The other four went Under, and I mean way Under; you already saw Headliner ScarlettHeadliner Scarlett as the set's least popular commander, but she wasn't alone.

After all, Mastermind PlumMastermind Plum, Emissary GreenEmissary Green, Senator PeacockSenator Peacock, and Apothecary WhiteApothecary White didn't even break 1,200 decks combined. Rough performance for one of the world's most beloved board games. Maybe they should've put Tim Curry on one of those cards.

This set also marked the return of Morph—sort of. Though it's more of a Limited mechanic, Disguise appeared on several interesting commanders, including Etrata, Deadly FugitiveEtrata, Deadly Fugitive, Vannifar, Evolved EnigmaVannifar, Evolved Enigma, and Yarus, Roar of the Old GodsYarus, Roar of the Old Gods.

I've not yet had the pleasure of playing against any of these commanders, but I expect they present a fun added element of unknown information.

The other mechanics? None stuck. I mean, I like how Collect Evidence works with the aforementioned Chalk OutlineChalk Outline, and Suspect fits from a flavor perspective, but neither earned much of a following at all.

Just look at Izoni, Center of the WebIzoni, Center of the Web and Agrus Kos, Spirit of JusticeAgrus Kos, Spirit of Justice, which earned a measly 449 and 100 decks, respectively. (We'll cover Izoni again later.)

So, overall, I'd have to say Murders at Karlov Manor was a dead average set. Some of it worked, some didn't, and Niv-Mizzet appeared yet again. Speaking of which...

My Solid Selections

If there's a Niv-Mizzet in a set, it's going to go Over. The same can be said of five-color commanders, and fortunately for me, this guy is both:

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 2,506

Did you know we get a new Niv-Mizzet every year? That might sound like an exaggeration, but I assure you, it's true. In 2023, we got Niv-Mizzet, SupremeNiv-Mizzet, Supreme from March of the Machine: The Aftermath.

In 2024, we got Niv-Mizzet, GuildpactNiv-Mizzet, Guildpact here, plus Niv-Mizzet, VisionaryNiv-Mizzet, Visionary from Foundations (and technically Niv-Mizzet, ParunNiv-Mizzet, Parun again, if you count his reprint in the OTJ commander deck).

That's a lot of Nivs. So many, in fact, that I coined a new term last time we saw the dragon wizard: Nivtigue. Turns out it didn't affect our newest Niv, mostly because of the following observation from last year's article:

"Every time I've reviewed him he's gone way Over, and I expect this iteration to be no different, especially considering his splashiness, raw power, and sweet neck frill."

All true—especially that last bit. Here's guessing our 2025 Niv-Mizzet will make his way to Tarkir.

Next up, another returning character (there were a lot of these):

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 7,813

Unlike Niv, this is only Judith's second reappearance since debuting as Judith, the Scourge DivaJudith, the Scourge Diva in Ravnica Allegiance. This version of her is a lot different, as I mentioned last year.

"So you're telling me my Lightning BoltLightning Bolt becomes a MurderMurder that gains three life, or I get a souped up Imp instead? Gotta say, I'm happy with either outcome, especially when I get to choose. Rakdos is fast becoming the secondary Spellslinger home to Izzet, and Judith is the latest (and perhaps best) reason."

Nice to see Lightning BoltLightning Bolt appearing among Judith's Top Cards. For the High Synergy cards, it's funny but perhaps unsurprising to see Tectonic HazardTectonic Hazard, Blazing VolleyBlazing Volley, End the FestivitiesEnd the Festivities, and ElectrickeryElectrickery grouped together, since they're all effectively the same card.

That is to say, Judith makes them one-mana Plague WindPlague Winds. Seems powerful.

And hey, speaking of powerful, check out our next correctly predicted commander:

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 12,620

As mentioned, that's the most decks of any commander in this set. Here's why I thought Voja would do so well...

"Typal commanders are almost always popular, so surely a double-typal commander will be twice as popular as usual, right?

Well, maybe not that popular—but it'll still do well. There's no shortage of Elves to choose from, and although there aren't as many viable Wolves, I think both combined should push Voja past the mark."

The comment about Wolves proved prescient. Note how Elves is the most popular tag among Voja decks with about 11,000, while Wolves trail with a meager 671.

Plus, nine out of Voja's 10 High Synergy Cards are Elves (and the 10th card, Maskwood NexusMaskwood Nexus, makes Elves). It's an Elven world, and the Wolves are just living in it.

So those are the Overs that went Over. But how about an Under that went Under?

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 968

I highlight this commander simply because it reinforces just how popular Izzet spellslinger commanders can be. Here's what I wrote last year:

"...Seven mana is too much for a commander that very well might die in combat (and does nothing outside it), plus requires tons of setup to succeed. I'm off it."

In other words, I think this commander is really bad. And yet, it came so close to the mark, falling short by just a few hundred decks.

That means players really love this archetype—and I can't blame them. In fact, I'm one of them. Niv-Mizzet, ParunNiv-Mizzet, Parun remains my all-time fav.

But that's enough of me patting myself on the back. Let's get to what you really came here for: The screw-ups.

My Biggest Blunders

We'll start with my blunderest blunder, statistically speaking.

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 3,071

Yes, 3,000 is a lot more than 1,200. Yet it shouldn't come as a total surprise if you remember my take from last year...

"Delney works best with morph and Gen-Z morph, a.k.a. Disguise, allowing you to attack with seemingly small creatures, then flip them into big attackers after blocks, doubling any flip abilities in the process. Seems sweet."

Not a bad start. But it got worse.

"That said, mono-white small-stuff-matters commanders have a spotty history. See Kellan, Daring TravelerKellan, Daring Traveler from The Lost Caverns of Ixalan, for example, who rewards similarly sized creatures, yet only leads 111 decks."

I suppose the difference is that Delney is just flat-out better than Kellan, not to mention more interesting.

That text doubles more abilities than I gave it credit for, including attack triggers, ETBs, and even the tapping ability on Saradoc, Master of BucklandSaradoc, Master of Buckland.

The following commander was the only other Under prediction I got wrong:

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 1,681

In my defense, I had sound logic for this one:

"...Yarus doesn't reward you for flipping your facedown creatures, but instead rewards you for leaving them facedown. This is an odd play pattern, and one I'm not convinced is very fun.

In fact, that's why I'm going Under. Are there many players out there who want to play a bunch of three mana 2/2 Scroll ThiefScroll Thiefs? I think not."

I'm sorry, former self, but that's incorrect. Apparently, there are almost 2,000 players out there who want to do exactly that.

In my defense, when I was writing this article last January, I also didn't know that a few months later, we'd be getting another face-down creature mechanic in the form of Duskmourn's Manifest Dread.

I certainly believe that helped boost these numbers, since four of Yarus's top five New Cards have Manifest Dread on them. If only I had a crystal ball...

And hey, I really could've used it before making this next selection.

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 449

Look, getting a pick wrong isn't unusual. It comes with the territory. In fact, if I just got them all right every set, this wouldn't be much fun, now would it?

But here's the catch: Izoni was my Can't-Miss Pick of the set.

That's the one pick you really can't botch. Like, the Netflix stream can go down during the Tyson-Paul fight, but it's really got to work for the NFL games on Christmas.

This was my NFL Christmas, and I indeed botched it. Let's revisit my methodology, starting with...

"I think we can all agree that EDHREC is the real center of the web."

Ah yes, buttering up one's employer. A tried-and-true method of success. How then did I expand upon my analysis?

"Be that as it may, Izoni isn't bad, either, what with her excellent ETB ability and her even better sacrifice ability (which fuels future ETBs, by the way). Izoni is a value train, and I'm happy to hop aboard."

And that's when the train crashed. Or rather, the Netflix stream crashed. And now that I'm mixing my metaphors, it's probably time to wrap this up.

In closing, here are some potential explanations: Maybe six mana is a little too much for this effect. Maybe Golgari is too competitive of a color combo.

Maybe Collect Evidence wasn't intriguing enough. Maybe the failure of Madame Web inspired widespread anti-spider sentiment. Whatever the case may be, the truth is clear: I screwed up.

Recap

Correct Picks (32)

1. Massacre Girl, Known KillerMassacre Girl, Known Killer - Over (4,359 decks)
2. Etrata, Deadly FugitiveEtrata, Deadly Fugitive - Over (2,120 decks)
3. Marvo, Deep OperativeMarvo, Deep Operative - Over (3,129 decks
4. Mirko, Obsessive TheoristMirko, Obsessive Theorist - Over (5,705 decks)
5. Judith, Carnage ConnoisseurJudith, Carnage Connoisseur - Over (7,813 decks)
6. Anzrag, the Quake-MoleAnzrag, the Quake-Mole - Over (4,004 decks)
7. Teysa, Opulent OligarchTeysa, Opulent Oligarch - Over (1,948 decks)
8. Melek, Reforged ResearcherMelek, Reforged Researcher - Over (1,505 decks)
9. Aurelia, the Law AboveAurelia, the Law Above - Over (2,049 decks)
10. Commander MustardCommander Mustard - Over (1,631 decks)
11. Nelly Borca, Impulsive AccuserNelly Borca, Impulsive Accuser - Over (3,402 decks)
12. The Pride of Hull CladeThe Pride of Hull Clade - Over (2,354 decks)
13. Vannifar, Evolved EnigmaVannifar, Evolved Enigma - Over (1,813 decks)
14. Duskana, the Rage MotherDuskana, the Rage Mother - Over (3,776 decks)
15. Kaust, Eyes of the GladeKaust, Eyes of the Glade - Over (1,819 decks)
16. Voja, Jaws of the ConclaveVoja, Jaws of the Conclave - Over (12,620 decks)
17. Morska, Undersea SleuthMorska, Undersea Sleuth - Over (4,981 decks)
18. Sophia, Dogged DetectiveSophia, Dogged Detective - Over (2,816 decks)
19. Niv-Mizzet, GuildpactNiv-Mizzet, Guildpact - Over (2,506 decks)
20. Apothecary WhiteApothecary White - Under (387 decks)
21. Senator PeacockSenator Peacock - Under (227 decks)
22. Mastermind PlumMastermind Plum - Under (132 decks)
23. Tesak, Judith's HellhoundTesak, Judith's Hellhound - Under (383 decks)
24. Alquist Proft, Master SleuthAlquist Proft, Master Sleuth - Under (643 decks)
25. Ezrim, Agency ChiefEzrim, Agency Chief - Under (472 decks)
26. Lavinia, Foil to ConspiracyLavinia, Foil to Conspiracy - Under (285 decks)
27. Tolsimir, Midnight's LightTolsimir, Midnight's Light - Under (119 decks)
28. Trostani, Three WhispersTrostani, Three Whispers - Under (607 decks)
29. Kylox, Visionary InventorKylox, Visionary Inventor - Under (968 decks)
30. Agrus Kos, Spirit of JusticeAgrus Kos, Spirit of Justice - Under (110 decks)
31. Feather, Radiant ArbiterFeather, Radiant Arbiter - Under (566 decks)
32. Kellan, Inquisitive ProdigyKellan, Inquisitive Prodigy - Under (398 decks)

Incorrect Picks (11)

1. Headliner ScarlettHeadliner Scarlett - Over Under (82 decks)
2. Krenko, Baron of Tin StreetKrenko, Baron of Tin Street - Over Under (863 decks)
3. Emissary GreenEmissary Green - Over Under (209 decks)
4. Lazav, Wearer of FacesLazav, Wearer of Faces - Over Under (688 decks)
5. Rakdos, Patron of ChaosRakdos, Patron of Chaos - Over Under (762 decks)
6. Tomik, Wielder of LawTomik, Wielder of Law - Over Under (789 decks)
7. Amzu, Swarm's HungerAmzu, Swarm's Hunger - Over Under (810 decks)
8. Izoni, Center of the WebIzoni, Center of the Web - Over Under (449 decks...Can't-Miss Pick)
9. Lonis, Genetics ExpertLonis, Genetics Expert - Over Under (666 decks)
10. Delney, Streetwise LookoutDelney, Streetwise Lookout - Under Over (3,071 decks)
11. Yarus, Roar of the Old GodsYarus, Roar of the Old Gods - Under Over (1,681 decks)

My Murders at Karlov Manor Correct Prediction Percentage: 74%

My Overall Correct Prediction Percentage: 75%

An average performance for an average set. Let's boost those numbers with our next look-back article, Fallout. Until then, thanks as always for reading!

Kyle Massa

Kyle A. Massa is a writer and avid Magic player living somewhere in upstate New York with his wife, their daughter, and three wild animals. His current favorite card is Flubs, the Fool. Kyle can be found on Twitter @mindofkyleam.