The Endstone | Art by Ryan Pancoast

Today on The Over/Under, it's a modernist postmodern affair... featuring Eldrazi!

If you haven't joined us before, this is the article series where we hijack products designed for other formats and have more fun with them than they do. Just kidding. I predict how popular every new commander will become in a year's time, using an "Over" or "Under" a line of 1,200 decks as my prediction. Now that it's been a year since Modern Horizons 3 dropped, it's time to check my work.

If you'd like to review last year's article, you may do so here. However, if you'd rather not relive my flaccid jokes, I'll be quoting my pertinent points throughout, and skipping the jokes. Mostly.

Overall Impressions

This is a data website, after all, so let's start by digging into some data.

• Total number of commanders: 32
• Total number of commander decks: 142,649
• Average commander deck count: 4,457
• Most decks: Ulalek, Fused AtrocityUlalek, Fused Atrocity - (17,783 decks)
• Fewest decks: Skoa, EmbermageSkoa, Embermage - (83 decks)

To the surprise of no one, this was a massively popular set. Despite boasting fewer commanders than most releases these days, MH3 still totaled a gaudy 142,649 decks. For comparison, that's about 2,000 more decks than its predecessor, Outlaws of Thunder Junction, despite offering roughly half as many commanders.

From a design standpoint, we got what we've come to expect from a Horizons set, which is to say, something totally unexpected. I mean, if I'd told you we'd someday play a set featuring Eldrazi, energy, modifications, various flavors of affinity, flipping planeswalkers, Blood tokens, Food tokens, Clue tokens, and literal Tarmogoyf tokens, you would've never believed me. I mean, I wouldn't have believed me either.

Of all those disparate themes, Eldrazi has to be the runaway hit. Our top commander is all about them, for one, and its companion, Azlask, the Swelling ScourgeAzlask, the Swelling Scourge, wasn't far behind. Furthermore, even aside from commanders, many MH3 cards have fast become Eldrazi kindred staples, including Glaring FleshrakerGlaring Fleshraker, Echoes of EternityEchoes of Eternity, and It That Heralds the EndIt That Heralds the End. (To be fair, there were a few unexpected duds from this type, too. But we'll get to those later...)

Though they were perhaps the splashiest aspect of the set, it wasn't all about the 'Drazi. For example, all five flip 'walkers went over, which is especially nice to see considering only three of the five original flip 'walkers from Magic Origins found their audience.

And another thing I wanted to mention: these were some of the best preconstructed decks we've seen in a while. We get them every set now, so they tend to feel a little less special than they used to, but these ones felt plenty special. All four themes were novel in their own right, and every commander—even the secondary ones—did something interesting. Omo, Queen of VesuvaOmo, Queen of Vesuva even did something so weird they added reminder text to all the Tron lands in order to explain the interaction. I'd say that's pretty sweet.

But it wasn't all sunshine and rainbows. I'd be remiss if I didn't mention Nadu, Winged WisdomNadu, Winged Wisdom, a card so obnoxious it got a swift banning, even before the year was up. To me, that's a blemish on the design, since the card was quickly and clearly a problem for our format. Probably better when the designers aim too high rather than too low, but still... any card that makes ShukoShuko an obliterating powerhouse deserves castigation.

And so, overall, it's hard to describe Modern Horizons 3 as anything but a runaway success. Between the exciting themes, splashy commanders, and outstanding preconstructed decks, there was a whole lot to like. In fact, from a personal standpoint, this was probably my favorite set of 2024.

Now that I've gushed about the set for a few hundred words, let's get into the nitty and the gritty. Especially the gritty.

My Solid Selections

I suppose we should begin with last year's Can't-Miss Pick.

Last year's prediction: Can't-Miss Pick

Final deck count: 8,622

It's not every day that you get a commander that poops out the erstwhile flagship creature of an eternal format, so when you get one, you've got to take advantage. I know I certainly did: I actually purchased this precon, despite the somewhat hefty price tag, just because I liked the commander so much. Or did I do it to inflate the numbers so my pick would go Over? Perhaps...

Anyhoo, here's what I wrote last year about this restless gal:

"I guarantee this commander will go Over. How can I make such a claim? Because I'm going to personally purchase 1,200 copies of Disa's commander deck, just because I think she's so cool. Is this fiscally responsible? No. Is it ethical? Also no. But will I do it? You bet your Goyf."

You know, I forgot I'd made that promise until re-reading it just now. Don't say I didn't warn you. And speaking of warnings...

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 15,904 decks

I warned you this would be a hit... although, to be fair, you already knew that, and so did everyone else. It was pretty obvious. The NecrobloomThe Necrobloom was the main set's most popular commander, and very nearly beat out the Commander product, too. Here are a few reasons why:

"This is basically Field of the DeadField of the Dead from the command zone, a card which already appears in 3% of decks. Plus, it spots you Plant tokens even when you don't have seven different lands, and it turns all your binned lands into Dakmor SalvageDakmor Salvage. As if that all wasn't enough, that seven toughness works great with Ancient LumberknotAncient Lumberknot and similar cards."

There's a startling lack of stupid jokes in that analysis, but at least it's accurate.

While we're on the subject of accuracy, let's talk about inaccuracy.

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 2,796

As you can see, it wasn't my prediction that was inaccurate. It was my take on the card:

"To be clear, I don't think this card is all that good. Phelia's pretty much an inferior version of Brago, King EternalBrago, King Eternal. But unlike Brago, Phelia is adorable. Like, ridiculously so. Looks more like a Corgi than a shepherd to me, but whatever—never doubt a dog frolicking in leaves."

After playing with and against Phelia, it's a lot better than it looks. Sure, this little pooch can blink your stuff, as evidenced by all the ETB stuff among its High Synergy Cards list. But you can also get tricksy by exiling your opponent's best blocker, or better yet, a big token, since those won't even come back. You can also effectively wipe counters from permanents, which could prove advantageous against counter-stacking commanders like Animar, Soul of ElementsAnimar, Soul of Elements.

All in all, sometimes you need to play a commander to really get what it's doing. I wish I could've done so with our next few...

My Biggest Blunders

Shockingly, there weren't too many of these in this set. Only a handful of my Over predictions went Under, starting with...

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 1,077

Here's last year's take in its entirety:

"This artwork is sweet, and the card itself is even sweeter. Works with blink, Kamigawa moonfolk, and a whole bunch of other stuff, plus it yields three heretofore unseen tokens. I like the shape of Genku's future."

Of the three pros I listed here, only blink could be considered an actual pro. No offense to Kamigawa Moonfolk, but when's the last time anybody played one of those? And unseen tokens are just annoying if you don't pull them in booster packs. So, with blink being the only draw, that creates too much competition, especially in these colors.

With that out of the way, let's get to a trio of disappointments that really disappointed me. Remember those unexpected duds I mentioned earlier? Here they are...

Last year's prediction: Overs for all three

Final deck counts: 246, 424, and 898 respectively

This came as a real shock. I mean, these are the Eldrazi titans we're talking about here. The scourge of Zendikar, the original annihilators, the creatures unanimously voted "most likely to force your opponents to scoop" by their high school peers. How could all three of them possibly go Under?

For context, just look at the performance of the previous iterations of these characters:

• Kozilek, the Great DistortionKozilek, the Great Distortion - 5,683 decks
• Kozilek, Butcher of TruthKozilek, Butcher of Truth - 896 decks
• Ulamog, the Ceaseless HungerUlamog, the Ceaseless Hunger - 950 decks
• Ulamog, the Infinite GyreUlamog, the Infinite Gyre - 200 decks
• Emrakul, the Promised EndEmrakul, the Promised End - 859 decks
• Emrakul, the Aeons TornEmrakul, the Aeons Torn - Banned, and rightfully so

Wait a second... that's it?

As you can see, I let my perceptions of these three get the better of me. If I'd checked the data prior to these predictions, I would've noticed only one of their previous six appearances even cracked quadruple digits, let alone earned the Over. Instead, I assumed the splashy mythic aliens would bust the 1,200 barrier on name-brand recognition alone. Lesson learned.

The only one of these three stooges that even came close to relevancy was Ulamog, the DefilerUlamog, the Defiler. According to last year's article...

"Previously, a creature had never gone above annihilator 6. Ulamog shatters that ceiling with ease, especially if you happen to exile something big with its cast trigger. This card will shoot up the Salt Scale faster than a large order of fries from McDonald's—not that that will prevent it from going Over."

Indeed, the annihilator clause is the most appealing aspect of this commander. A mill deck might also be in order, although with a colorless color identity, that's nearly impossible to build around. As a result, we see that paltry 898 deck total.

Then again, it's better than Emrakul and Kozilek, who couldn't even hit that number combined. My thoughts on the former...

"Every time they design a new Emrakul, they're just creating new reasons for your opponents to scoop when it's cast."

...And the latter...

"For nine mana, you get 19 power and 17 toughness spread across four bodies, with the possibility of more if you manifested creatures."

None of this is untrue, yet I believe I missed the underlying structural issue with these Eldrazi. Namely, none of them point you in a direction. Unlike Ulalek, Fused AtrocityUlalek, Fused Atrocity, the set's most popular commander, they don't offer a clear plan. (Plus, it doesn't help that Emrakul's madness ability is wasted when it's your commander.) Each is self-contained and grossly game-warping, which ultimately lends itself better to the 99 than the command zone. Noted for future sets.

That leaves us with one more commander, which is my only Under prediction that went Over. And it is...

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 6,201

Last I checked, that's a lot more than 1,200. Let's dig into the past and see how I botched this so badly...

"Whether you like counters, Auras, Equipment, or both, Arna is your captain now. However, many players seem concerned about tracking all that extra stuff, to the point that I've become skeptical. Allowing oneself to be influenced by internet negativity never turns out bad, right?"

I must've been reading the wrong Reddit posts, because all that tracking hasn't slowed anyone down. In fact, this was right up there with some of the set's most popular commanders. The average Arna deck packs swords galore, as predicted, along with the aforementioned counters and Auras.

The only thing I was missing was dry-erase tokens, which I wasn't aware of until my pal Jeremy introduced them to me sometime between now and when I made these predictions. I must assume these 6,201 players are using such tokens to track Arna's copies, so shoutout to dry erase tokens, and Jeremy, and everyone who dunked on me by building this commander.

Recap

Correct Picks (27)

1. Pearl-Ear, Imperial AdvisorPearl-Ear, Imperial Advisor - Over (1,426 decks)
2. Phelia, Exuberant ShepherdPhelia, Exuberant Shepherd - Over (2,796 decks)
3. Ashling, Flame DancerAshling, Flame Dancer - Over (3,630 decks)
4. Herigast, Erupting NullkiteHerigast, Erupting Nullkite - Over (3,036 decks)
5. Eladamri, KorvecdalEladamri, Korvecdal - Over (1,903 decks)
6. SixSix - Over (1,765 decks)
7. Imskir Iron-EaterImskir Iron-Eater - Over (3,637 decks)
8. Rosheen, Roaring ProphetRosheen, Roaring Prophet - Over (1,254 decks)
9. Kudo, King Among BearsKudo, King Among Bears - Over (6,033 decks)
10. Shilgengar, Sire of FamineShilgengar, Sire of Famine - Over (6,092 decks)
11. Sorin of House MarkovSorin of House Markov - Over (4,288 decks)
12. Ral, Monsoon MageRal, Monsoon Mage - Over (2,183 decks)
13. Grist, Voracious LarvaGrist, Voracious Larva - Over (1,742 decks)
14. Ajani, Nacatl PariahAjani, Nacatl Pariah - Over (1,774 decks)
15. Jyoti, Moag AncientJyoti, Moag Ancient - Over (1,568 decks)
16. Nadu, Winged WisdomNadu, Winged Wisdom - Over (5,932 decks)
17. Omo, Queen of VesuvaOmo, Queen of Vesuva - Over (9,514 decks)
18. Tamiyo, Inquisitive StudentTamiyo, Inquisitive Student - Over (3,354 decks)
19. Coram, the UndertakerCoram, the Undertaker - Over (6,230 decks)
20. Disa the RestlessDisa the Restless - Can't-Miss Pick (8,622 decks)
21. The NecrobloomThe Necrobloom - Over (15,904 decks)
22. Cayth, Famed MechanistCayth, Famed Mechanist - Over (2,695 decks)
23. Satya, Aetherflux GeniusSatya, Aetherflux Genius - Over (10,012 decks)
24. Azlask, the Swelling ScourgeAzlask, the Swelling Scourge - Over (9,417 decks)
25. Ulalek, Fused AtrocityUlalek, Fused Atrocity - Over (17,783 decks)
26. Skoa, EmbermageSkoa, Embermage - Under (83 decks)
27. Phlage, Titan of Fire's FuryPhlage, Titan of Fire's Fury - Under (1,130 decks)

Incorrect Picks (5)

1. Genku, Future ShaperGenku, Future Shaper - Over Under (1,077 decks)
2. Emrakul, the World AnewEmrakul, the World Anew - Over Under (246 decks)
3. Kozilek, the Broken RealityKozilek, the Broken Reality - Over Under (424 decks)
4. Ulamog, the DefilerUlamog, the Defiler - Over Under (898 decks)
5. Arna Kennerüd, SkycaptainArna Kennerüd, Skycaptain - Under Over (6,201 decks)

My MH3 Correct Prediction Percentage: 84%

My Overall Correct Prediction Percentage: 74%

Despite a somewhat embarrassing finish to my picks, I managed to perform quite well overall with this set. 84% is my best percentage since Commander Masters, and exactly twice as good as my abysmal predictions for Doctor Who, which I'm sure you've noticed I still haven't gotten over.

I'll take it, especially for a set as fine as this one. Overall, I was a huge fan of Modern Horizons 3, especially the part where it basically became EDH Horizons 3 in all but name. Next up for reviews, we've got Assassin's Creed, which is—spoiler alert—more Doctor Who than MH3.

See you then!