Borborygmos and Fblthp | Art by Rudy Siswanto

The Mother of All Machines

Any way you look at it, this was an awesome set. Now we have the joy of sending it off in style.

In The Over/Under, we predict whether new commanders will earn more or fewer than 1200 decks after a year's time. March of the Machine turned one on April 21, and I took some screenshots of the results, so it's time to see how last year's predictions fared. You can find my original article here, but no need to re-read, since I'll be quoting from it throughout.

Overall Impressions

Since this was sort of like Avengers: Endgame for the MTG universe, it's no surprise it was one of the game's most popular sets ever. Just check out these stats:

• Total number of commanders: 43
• Total number of commander decks: 118,195
• Average commander deck count: 2,749
• Most decks: Omnath, Locus of All (9,691 decks)
• Fewest decks: Kogla and Yidaro (95 decks)

For context, MOM had half as many commanders as Dominaria United, yet created about 20,000 more decks. And, mind you, Dom U was plenty popular in its own right. Remarkably, MOM didn't have any major hits at commander. 9,691 is a lot of decks for Omnath, Locus of All, but it's only rank #57 overall. Instead of one mega hit, this set had a large distribution of consistent bangers. That 2,749 average is the best I've seen since recording these overall stats.

It's even more impressive considering March of the Machine was a set designed not just for EDH, but for all formats. Warhammer 40k, for example, was a set specifically designed for our format. R&D had no need to include the usual underpowered uncommon signpost legends, for example. Yet despite that complication, MOM still outperformed 40k, not to mention most other sets.

As I touched on earlier, I think story was a significant part of this set's success. The collision of planes was evident on every card, particularly the Battles and the team-up legends. The latter really resonated with players, as evidenced by the success of commanders like Thalia and The Gitrog Monster, Zimone and Dina, and Shalai and Hallar.

Furthermore, MOM offered a bunch of flat-out cool—not to mention powerful—designs. The Phyrexian flip commanders are all interesting in unique ways; Quintorius, Loremaster was an entirely new take on Boros; Brimaz, Blight of Oreskos is the first Orzhov commander with proliferate; Gimbal, Gremlin Prodigy is just plain weird. I could go on, but instead, I'll say this: It feels like there's something for everyone in this set.

Overall, Wizards once again reaffirmed the power of history. Among MOM's 43 commanders, I counted only four that weren't callbacks to other cards and/or characters. That's the conceit of the set, true, but it's also a tactical decision. Nostalgia sells.

Now that we've taken a wide-angle view, it's time to zoom in on some specific predictions. As always, let's start with the positives.

My Solid Selections

Of all my selections, I was most proud of this one:

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 1,362

As mentioned, my guy Quin here eschews the usual Boros equipment strat for...noncreature reanimator? Here's how I described it last year:

"With discard outlets, you can cheat mana costs on stuff like Overwhelming Splendor and Brass's Bounty. And hey, you could even build a planeswalker reanimator deck!"

Quintorius decks have all of that and more. Discard outlets (Demand Answers), Overwhelming Splendor, Brass's Bounty, and even 14 planeswalkers on average, with most of them costing six or more mana. Feels good to nail this one, especially considering there aren't many other commanders like it.

Same goes for our next one...

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 1,981

It always helps to be part of the Commander product, and in Gimbal's case, he fronted the box. But that's not all he had going for him. Here's what I noted last year.

"The obvious artifact tokens are Clues, Treasures, Food, and Powerstones, as well as this set's Incubator tokens (plus Gremlins from Gimbal himself). Beyond that, there's a surprising myriad of options, including Rocks from Toggo, Goblin Weaponsmith, Icy Manaliths from Svella, Ice Shaper, and Scraps from Farid, Enterprising Salvager. Goblin Cruciverbalist is the deck's unlikely MVP, since it generates up to five Scrabble tiles."

Oddly, Goblin Cruciverbalist doesn't appear in the average Gimbal deck, which makes me think players either don't know it exists or don't have house rules amenable to Un- cards. Either way, it's a major loss for gremlins everywhere.

Our next correct Over prediction is an educational one.

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 9,314

First lesson: This is actually a fresh take on an old card, which I didn't realize until writing this article (the original Sidar Jabari leads a robust 20 decks). Second lesson: Eminence is an auto-Over from now on. I began my hypothesis last year by writing...

"It's no coincidence that two of EDH's top 10 commanders have Eminence. Though Sidar Jabari's version is less broken than The Ur-Dragon and Edgar Markov's, a free loot with every attacking Knight is still plenty busted."

Though Sidar still doesn't rival either of those commanders, 9000 is still a massive number. All subsequent Eminence commanders are getting an Over until proven otherwise.

Now let's check on some correct Under selections, starting with the closest miss.

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: ,1189 decks

Just 11 more deckbuilders could've proven me wrong, but I went with my gut on this one.

"Though Ayara is Eldraine's version of The Bachelorette, I doubt she'll earn the same ratings. Surrendering board presence to damage only one player is risky, and five or six mana to flip is a lot, especially for a middling back side. I do not accept this rose."

I use the phrase "went with my gut" intentionally, because contestants on The Bachelorette use it constantly to justify their dumb decisions. My dumb decision happened to work out, though not by much.

And one more correct Under selection before we move on...

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 95

Peter Jackson must be bummed, because this is the second time Magic's version of King Kong underperformed (see Kogla, the Titan Ape from Ikoria, who earned only 120 decks despite my Over prediction). Last year I noted...

"The modal ability is decent, but the activated ability is basically flavor text, since you'd need to engineer some way to bounce it. Not worth the effort."

I guess you can add it to the 99 of your new Riku of Many Paths deck? No wait, even that doesn't work...

Alright, enough of my successes. Let's proceed to my blunders.

My Big Mistakes

Okay, let's start with the biggest.

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 6,582

Yes, 6,000 is many times more than 1,200. Yes, this was by far my worst selection of the set. And no, I did not understand exactly how this card worked when I wrote about it. Just read my evaluation:

"+1/+1 counters usually come in handfuls, not bundles, meaning it'll be hard to stack significant damage. You can't even target all your opponents! You can only ping one at a time! I'm off this card."

In the abstract, none of this is false. However, when you, say, attack with your Kalonian Hydra and double all your counters, you essentially cast a free Fireball at target opponent. For some reason, I thought it was capped at one damage per activation.

Such is the life of a Magic writer. Cards these days are complicated, and when you're trying to reach people as fast as possible, you're bound to misinterpret some interactions. Plus, now you know for certain I'm a human, and not just an AI churning out these articles in seconds. Or perhaps that's what I want you to think...

Next up, another screw up.

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 4,499

Before you point and laugh at my ineptitude, let me remind you of my argument.

"Yargle, Glutton of Urborghas always been a fringe playable in EDH. So what happens when we literally double the meme? We get a bizarre exchange of dialogue and a commander that would've eclipsed 600, but not 1200."

Hmm. That wasn't very convincing. Turns out people like their memes, especially when they can combine them with Traverse the Outlands, Rishkar's Expertise, Essence Harvest, and more to do some truly silly stuff. Next time Yargle returns—which we all know he will, probably as a 20/3 or something—I'll just save myself some time and give him the Over.

This next one was tough, if only because I came so close to being right.

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 1,394

"An interesting design, though more disparate than I would like. To get full value, you need to cast a Human cheap enough to leave mana for the flashback spell, which puts a lot of pressure on your build. If we needed a human duo, I would've preferred Simon and Garfunkel."

Look, we all like "The Sound of Silence," but it's a surprise to me that 1394 people like this commander. I suppose the flaw in my logic was failing to notice just how cheap the average Human is (and I don't mean in terms of their spending habits). Most cost only one or two mana, making the flashbacks far more manageable than I'd initially thought.

We'll close on one of my few Over predictions that actually went Under.

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 1,033

I note this one because typal commanders rarely miss—especially when they support Dragons! After all, Dragons are EDHREC's most popular type by a roughly 20,000 deck margin. So what went wrong? Let's start with last year's take.

"Wizards R&D somehow managed to cram three evergreen keywords, a typal payoff, a free Anticipate, and pseudo-Dash onto one legendary Orc Dragon, and I am here for it. The Dash thing is probably least useful, though it can be upside for Dragons like Ganax, Astral Hunter or Lathliss, Dragon Queen."

Both those cards appear in the top five of Zurgo and Ojutai's High Synergy Cards, so that's not the issue. Looking through the commander page, I think it comes down to a few problems.

First, the pseudo-Dash is ineffective when most of your Dragons cost your entire turn to recast. Second, Zurgo and Ojutai don't stack with additional Dragons like most typal commanders do. Third, blue and white don't add much to Dragon typal. Just scroll through that page and notice how many more red cards are present than blue and white.

Overall, I can see why this commander didn't quite make it. That's the last time I'll trust an orc riding a dragon.

Recap

Correct Picks (30)

1. Elesh Norn - Over (1,729 decks)
2. Jin-Gitaxias - Over (2,135 decks)
3. Urabrask - Over (3,280 decks)
4. Errant and Giada - Over (2,024 decks)
5. Heliod, the Radiant Dawn - Over (2,978 decks)
6. Etali, Primal Conqueror - Over (5,966 decks)
7. Polukranos Reborn - Over (1,671 decks)
8. Brimaz, Blight of Oreskos - Over (5,450 decks)
9. Quintorius, Loremaster - Over (1,362 decks)
10. Inga and Esika - Over (1,289 decks)
11. Sidar Jabari of Zhalfir - Over (9,314 decks)
12. Goro-Goro and Satoru - Over (5,045 decks)
13. Slimefoot and Squee - Over (5,851 decks)
14. Kroxa and Kunoros - Over (1,551 decks)
15. Borborygmos and Fblthp - Over (1,446 decks)
16. Gimbal, Gremlin Prodigy - Over (1,981 decks)
17. Rashmi and Ragavan - Over (3,967 decks)
18. Thalia and The Gitrog Monster - Over (9,637 decks...Can't Miss Pick!)
19. Kasla, the Broken Halo - Over (2,826 decks)
20. Zimone and Dina - Over (5,360 decks)
21. Omnath, Locus of All - Over (9,691 decks)
22. Orthion, Hero of Lavabrink - Under (8,29 decks)
23. Surrak and Goreclaw - Under (415 decks)
24. Ayara, Widow of the Realm - Under (1,189 decks)
25. Rankle and Torbran - Under (508 decks)
26. Kogla and Yidaro - Under (95 decks)
27. Drana and Linvala - Under (936 decks)
28. Moira and Teshar - Under (332 decks)
29. Baral and Kari Zev - Under (1,013 decks)
30. Saint Traft and Rem Karolus - Under (1,087 decks)

Incorrect Picks (13)

1. Sheoldred - Over Under (1,086 decks)
2. Vorinclex - Over Under (931 decks)
3. Glissa, Herald of Predation - Over Under (975 decks)
4. Djeru and Hazoret - Over Under (1,011 decks)
5. Zurgo and Ojutai - Over Under (1,033 decks)
6. Hidetsugu and Kairi Under Over (1,976 decks)
7. Rona, Herald of Invasion - Under Over (1,720 decks)
8. Ghalta and Mavren - Under Over (1,750 decks)
9. Yargle and Multani - Under Over (4,499 decks)
10. Elenda and Azor - Under Over (1,925 decks)
11. Bright-Palm, Soul Awakener - Under Over (2,358 decks)
12. Shalai and Hallar - Under Over (6,582 decks)
13. Katilda and Lier - Under Over (1,394 decks)

My March of the Machine Correct Prediction Percentage: 70%

My Overall Correct Prediction Percentage: 75%

A pretty poor showing, all things considered. I finished five points below my average, and after striking high with an 87% on The Brothers' War, I'm trending in the wrong direction. This was the first set I doubled my line from 600 to 1,200, so maybe that's a contributing factor. Whatever the reason, here's hoping I fare better in our next set. I can't handle the scrutiny.