Shroofus SproutsireShroofus Sproutsire | Art by Yukihiro Maruo

We're shaking the foundations here on today's edition of The Over/Under. This is the series, by the way, where we guess how popular new commanders will become a year after their release. If you couldn't tell by my clumsy wordplay two sentences ago, we'll be covering Foundations in today's article (which includes the Jumpstart product, aka Jumpstart 2025).

The line for each commander is 1,200 decks, so a little over a year ago, I gave each commander an "Over" or "Under" that line. Then, on its one-year anniversary, I screenshotted how many decks each one earned. You can check back on that article here, or you can keep reading, since I'll be quoting the pertinent points throughout.

Overall Impressions

Foundations did exactly what it set out to do. It's the modern-day treatment of a Core Set, an introduction to Magic for new players and a reintroduction for established ones. It didn't break new ground, but it fertilized the ground we already have, enriching the soil for future releases.

New cards like Blasphemous EdictBlasphemous Edict and Scrawling CrawlerScrawling Crawler have become significant players in our format, and I expect they will be for years to come.

And yet, the Foundations commanders didn't quite hit. Just look at these numbers:

• Total number of commanders: 40
• Total number of commander decks: 86,485
• Average commander deck count: 2,162
• Most decks: Shroofus SproutsireShroofus Sproutsire: 7,419 decks
• Fewest decks: Anep, Vizier of HazoretAnep, Vizier of Hazoret: 61 decks

That deck total surpassed Assassin's Creed by 2,000, although that's not much of an accomplishment (no offense meant, Creed fans). Those 86k decks look a lot less impressive compared to FDN's predecessor, Duskmourn, which almost doubled that total with 134,292 decks.

Still, I don't mean that as a condemnation of Foundations. As I mentioned, the set is designed much like the classic Core Set, and those have always been more for new players than established. That often leads to more streamlined designs and less complexity, which probably won't appeal to as many entrenched deck builders as, say, Arabella, Abandoned DollArabella, Abandoned Doll. (Not that I would know. I gave Arabella an Under, to my shame.)

So where does that leave Foundations? Well, it suffered from some of the same issues previous Core Sets had, which is, in short, a branding problem. Take the aforementioned Duskmourn, for example. It's the '80s horror set. Or maybe the haunted house set. Or maybe the Innistrad knockoff set. At any rate, it's got an identity.

Same for many of Magic's most popular releases. Bloomburrow is the fuzzy critter set. Strixhaven is the school set. Brothers' War is the sibling squabble set. Doctor Who is the who cares set.

But Foundations? Foundations is generic almost by definition. It's a set for new players, and new players probably aren't diving right into Commander, despite it being the ultimate casual environment. I mean, ours is a format with a massive card pool, a relatively small ban list, and possibilities galore. Most new players are probably learning the game via Sealed, Standard, or good ol' kitchen table Magic. Commander is the next step, which makes a beginner set in the format a tough sell.

Furthermore, unlike Duskmourn, FDN didn't have the advantage of precon decks. Those always juice the numbers, especially when the decks are as good as Duskmourn's were, so perhaps that's another reason for the dip.

Whatever the case may be, Foundations wasn't without its charms. It was fun to see several famous characters return for new cards, including Arahbo, the First FangArahbo, the First Fang, Koma, World-EaterKoma, World-Eater, and Tinybones, Bauble BurglarTinybones, Bauble Burglar. I would've added Niv-Mizzet, VisionaryNiv-Mizzet, Visionary to that list, but even as a Niv-Mizzet superfan, I've got to admit the guy's overexposed.

And let's not forget the Jumpstart '25 commanders, many of which were pretty fun. Shroofus SproutsireShroofus Sproutsire in particular was a runaway hit, with about 7k decks at the one year mark and nearly 10k as I write this. We'll get into specifics soon, but suffice it to say that Shroofus is the third most popular mono-green commander in the game already. Who knows where it might end up?

So overall, I'd say the set was a success. Not a runaway success, nor even a surprise success—just a modest one. And for a revamped Core Set, you can't ask for much more.

But here's what you must be asking for: Individual commander check-ins. And so, without further ado...

The Stuff I Got Right

Since we were already talking about him, let's start with Shroofus SproutsireShroofus Sproutsire.

My prediction: Over

Final deck count: 7,419

Popular. Very popular. Here's how I called it in my prediction article:

"The more Saprolings you generate, the more likely you can go wider around your opponents' blockers, which gives you more Saprolings. [Also,] his name is "Shroofus," which has to count for something."

It counted for his brand, of course. That brand being "go super wide." Shroofus is best with augmentation and Saproling synergies, yet best when both are combined. So long as they keep printing Saprolings, this commander will only get further support.

My prediction: Over

Final deck count: 2,680

Koma, World-EaterKoma, World-Eater is nice because a), it's a budget substitute for Koma, Cosmos SerpentKoma, Cosmos Serpent, and b) it's flat out powerful. Ward 4 might as well be hexproof, and once you get that first hit in, you're off to the races (or the slithers, as it were). Here's how I described it initially:

"There's a possibility that many deckbuilders might just add this Koma to their existing Koma, Cosmos SerpentKoma, Cosmos Serpent decks, thereby reducing the potential new decks here. Though I believe that will happen to some extent, I still think Koma, World-Eater is splashy enough to earn some serious interest."

I wouldn't describe 2,000 decks as "serious interest," but it's still pretty good, and still north of our mark. Welcome to the Over club, Koma—for the second time, no less.

Before we move on to America's favorite segment, let's cover one more Over:

My prediction: Over

Final deck count: 3,454

Anyone who played Commander circa-2015 remembers Alesha, Who Smiles at DeathAlesha, Who Smiles at Death as a classic commander. And though she isn't quite the staple she used to be, this updated rendition of the character in Alesha, Who Laughs at FateAlesha, Who Laughs at Fate is still plenty powerful. Here's how I summed it up in my first article:

"'Oh fate,' Alesha laughed. 'You crack me up!' Then she reanimated Accursed MarauderAccursed Marauder and forced you to sacrifice yet another creature. [Cue the laugh track.]"

Side note: Accursed MarauderAccursed Marauder is a lot more annoying than it looks. Now back to business:

"If the above scenario sounds annoying, that's because it is. It might also sound familiar, since this Alesha is very similar to Alesha, Who Smiles at DeathAlesha, Who Smiles at Death, the [at the time] ninth most popular Mardu commander ever. In some ways this is better, in others worse, but either way, Alesha should be laughing all the way to the Over."

The comp is obvious, but apt; both versions of Alesha feature numerous overlapping card selections, including Ravenous ChupacabraRavenous Chupacabra, Faithless LootingFaithless Looting, and Vile EntomberVile Entomber. And since Alesha Mark I was so popular, it's no surprise her fresh version is syphoning that very same popularity.

Anyway, thanks for being patient. Now it's time for the moment you've all been waiting for: The cards I got wrong.

The Cards I...Oh, You Know the Rest

Spoiler: There's nothing too embarrassing here. Not like our last review article, when I gave the set's most popular commander an Under and got punished for it. Let's start small.

My prediction: Under

Final deck count: 3,945

No, I was not very high on Loot, Exuberant ExplorerLoot, Exuberant Explorer. And honestly, I can't remember why. Roll the tape, interns!

"Loot seems like a character specifically designed to be sold as a Funko Pop doll. Though its original incarnation, Loot, the Key to EverythingLoot, the Key to Everything, boasts an impressive 3,070 decks, this version has two fewer colors and a lot less promise. Paying six mana for an activated ability that will miss, and miss more often than you'd like, sounds like a terrible deal to me."

Oh, that's why. While the activated ability is indeed difficult to actually activate, the three-mana 1/4 body with extra land drops does an excellent job tiding you over until you can activate. I didn't adequately note that on my initial picks. Furthermore, Loot is indeed a popular character, and I'm sure that added to his success.

Speaking of success, this one didn't have any:

My prediction: Over

Final deck count: 280

Woof. Not even close. Makes we wonder what I was thinking. Good thing we've got this here fancy website you're reading from now to take us back.

"'Green-white enchantments go Over. Always.'

"Is it tacky to quote yourself? Probably, but I've been doing it too long to stop now. The above sentence was written by me in my Wilds of Eldraine review, when three Enchantment commanders all went Over. Psemilla may be mono-white instead of Selesnya, and he may have a name that's really hard to pronounce, but I still think I should respect the trend."

Maybe it was just too hard to pronounce. More likely, the lack of green hit Psemilla, Meletian PoetPsemilla, Meletian Poet a lot harder than I thought it would. Also, it doesn't help that his big five-enchantment reward is just a Titanic GrowthTitanic Growth with lifelink. I read it several times, expecting more all the while; maybe indestructible or trample or, I don't know, banding. Just something to make this more appealing. Psemilla didn't find it, which is why he's on the outside looking in.

My prediction: Under

Final deck count: 2,520

With those human hands, Kykar, Zephyr AwakenerKykar, Zephyr Awakener is sneaky-creepy. I just noticed that, and now I can't un-notice it. But let's not get off topic—here's what I noticed about this dude in my first article:

"Kykar, Wind's FuryKykar, Wind's Fury was a smash hit at 10,169 decks. This version, however, feels far less focused. Noncreature spells, blinking, and token-generation don't sound like a pleasant mix to me—and this is coming from someone who once mixed shrimp, bacon, and feta cheese into an omelet."

I'm telling you, I really did. And you know what else I did? Instantly regret my Under selection. I allowed the anti-synergy between the two options to distract from the fact that they're both good options. Blinking generates value, and so does token spawning, so putting them together still works, especially when you've got payoffs like Aether ChannelerAether Channeler, Peregrine DrakePeregrine Drake, and Dour Port-MageDour Port-Mage.

In fact, from browsing the Kykar page, it appears most players just build this as a Blink deck and pretty much ignore the Spirit token aspect. To each their own—so long as it doesn't harm my prediction percentage.

Recap

Correct Predictions (32)

1. Thurid, Mare of DestinyThurid, Mare of Destiny - Over (1,763 decks)
2. Cynette, Jelly DroverCynette, Jelly Drover - Over (1,666 decks)
3. Neerdiv, Devious DiverNeerdiv, Devious Diver - Can't-Miss Pick (2,155 decks)
4. Fumulus, the InfestationFumulus, the Infestation - Over (1,512 decks)
5. Rev, Tithe ExtractorRev, Tithe Extractor - Over (2,944 decks)
6. Tinybones, Bauble BurglarTinybones, Bauble Burglar - Over (6,141 decks)
7. Zul Ashur, Lich LordZul Ashur, Lich Lord - Over (1,938 decks)
8. General Kreat, the BoltbringerGeneral Kreat, the Boltbringer - Over (1,671 decks)
9. Gornog, the Red ReaperGornog, the Red Reaper - Over (2,948 decks)
10. Dionus, Elvish ArchdruidDionus, Elvish Archdruid - Over (2,274 decks)
11. Shroofus SproutsireShroofus Sproutsire - Over (7,419 decks)
12. Alesha, Who Laughs at FateAlesha, Who Laughs at Fate - Over (3,454 decks)
13. Plagon, Lord of the BeachPlagon, Lord of the Beach - Over (3,615 deck)
14. Evereth, Viceroy of PlunderEvereth, Viceroy of Plunder - Over (4,722 decks)
15. Slinza, the Spiked StampedeSlinza, the Spiked Stampede - Over (4,688 decks)
16. Niv-Mizzet, VisionaryNiv-Mizzet, Visionary - Over (6,000 decks)
17. Koma, World-EaterKoma, World-Eater - Over (2,680 decks)
18. Zimone, Paradox SculptorZimone, Paradox Sculptor - Over (2,708 decks)
19. Aphelia, Viper WhispererAphelia, Viper Whisperer - Over (3,606 decks)
20. Evereth, Viceroy of PlunderEvereth, Viceroy of Plunder - Over (4,722 decks)
21. Brigone, Soldier of MeletisBrigone, Soldier of Meletis - Under (1,053 decks)
22. Qala, Ajani's PridemateQala, Ajani's Pridemate - Under (441 decks)
23. Urdnan, Dromoka WarriorUrdnan, Dromoka Warrior - Under (75 decks)
24. Nazar, the Velvet FangNazar, the Velvet Fang - Under (139 decks)
25. Ozox, the Clattering KingOzox, the Clattering King - Under (830 decks)
26. Anep, Vizier of HazoretAnep, Vizier of Hazoret - Under (61 decks)
27. Cleon, Merry ChampionCleon, Merry Champion - Under (370 decks)
28. Ivora, Insatiable HeirIvora, Insatiable Heir - Under (613 decks)
29. Kellan, Planar TrailblazerKellan, Planar Trailblazer - Under (367 decks)
30. Braulios of Pheres BandBraulios of Pheres Band - Under (239 decks)
31. Sutina, Speaker of the TajuruSutina, Speaker of the Tajuru - Under (117 decks)
32. Hurska Sweet-ToothHurska Sweet-Tooth - Under (779 decks)

Incorrect Predictions (8)

1. Psemilla, Meletian PoetPsemilla, Meletian Poet - Over Under - (280 decks)
2. Kiora, the Rising TideKiora, the Rising Tide - Over Under - (439 decks)
3. Pol Jamaar, IllusionistPol Jamaar, Illusionist - Over Under - (189 decks)
4. Taeko, the Patient AvalancheTaeko, the Patient Avalanche - Over Under (771 decks)
5. Arahbo, the First FangArahbo, the First Fang - Under Over (2,189 decks)
6. Loot, Exuberant ExplorerLoot, Exuberant Explorer - Under Over (3,945 decks)
7. Kykar, Zephyr AwakenerKykar, Zephyr Awakener - Under Over (2,520 decks)
8. Elenda, Saint of DuskElenda, Saint of Dusk - Under Over (2,442 decks)

My Foundations Correct Predicting Percentage: 80%

My Overall Correct Prediction Percentage: 74%

So there you have it. My best performance since Modern Horizons 3. Here's hoping I can keep the good times rolling with our next review set, Aetherdrift. Catch you then!