Alpha DeathclawAlpha Deathclaw | Art by Robin Olausson

Falling Out of Favor?

Despite the nuclear issues, we're back with another edition of The Over/Under, the article series where we predict how popular new commanders will become one year after their release. It's been a year for our commanders from Fallout, so let's see where they ended up.

Reminder: Our line is 1,200 decks, and I guessed "Over" or "Under" that line for all 52 commanders. I also make one Can't-Miss pick every set, which is my surest selection of the bunch.

You can review last year's article here, but I'd say keep reading, since I'll be quoting from it throughout. And one last note: The following figures were pulled on March 9, 2025, the set's one-year anniversary. So, with all that out of the way, are you ready for the good stuff?

Overall Impressions

I like to begin these reviews with some big-picture figures.

• Total number of commanders: 52
• Total number of commander decks: 75,784
• Average commander deck count: 1,457
• Most decks: The Wise MothmanThe Wise Mothman (16,173 decks)
• Fewest decks: Duchess, Wayward TavernkeepDuchess, Wayward Tavernkeep (24 decks)

That's more total decks than the Universes Beyond set prior to this, Doctor Who, but fewer than the three preceding original sets, Murders at Karlov Manor, Lost Caverns of Ixalan, and Wilds of Eldraine.

I think that tells us something. You never know how these Universes Beyond sets are going to perform, because the question isn't just Are these cards appealing? It's more like this: Do Magic players also enjoy this IP?

The answer for this one is a straight, "Meh." A 1,457 average is solid, especially for a set with so many commanders, and we even had three commanders crack EDHREC's Top 100 rankings. Yet only 11 of the set's 52 commanders cleared the bar, while none of the uncommons even came close.

Personally, I've never played a single Fallout game, nor watched the Amazon show. Yet I still quite enjoyed the zany post-apocalyptic world depicted on these cards, particularly the mashup of disparate aesthetics.

I mean, we've got a cryptid (The Wise MothmanThe Wise Mothman), a Roman throwback (Caesar, Legion's EmperorCaesar, Legion's Emperor), a cowboy (Preston Garvey, MinutemanPreston Garvey, Minuteman), a robot dog (Rex, Cyber-HoundRex, Cyber-Hound), an American revolutionary (Hancock, Ghoulish MayorHancock, Ghoulish Mayor), a synthetic detective (Nick Valentine, Private EyeNick Valentine, Private Eye), a zombie (Jason Bright, Glowing ProphetJason Bright, Glowing Prophet), and a cast member of West Side Story (Butch DeLoria, Tunnel SnakeButch DeLoria, Tunnel Snake). Quite a collision of characters, here.

That said, I'm unsure the mechanics lived up to the world. Every commander here feels like a one-off, siloed design rather than a cooperative piece of a cohesive whole.

By contrast, Doctor Who at least had time counters as a constant through-line amongst most of its commanders, which made them all feel like part of the same world.

I suppose they were going for that with rad and energy counters here, although those only appear on eight total commanders. And although many of the set's legends reference Auras and Equipment, those are already so ingrained in Magic that they hardly feel unique to this world.

The rest of the commanders just do their own things. Cool things, sure, though they feel so unconnected I have to wonder if they were pulled from other sets' unused cards files.

Fallout's underperformance makes me nervous for the future of Universes Beyond, especially since we'll be getting even more of these sets soon. There's no shortage of potential IP crossovers, true, but I do wonder how many are realistically viable fits for the game itself.

What's more, I'm skeptical that the player base's appetite for these sets is as voracious as Hasbro (because I kinda feel like this is Hasbro's directive, not so much Wizards) seems to think.

But enough hand-wringing. Let's get to the fun stuff.

My Solid Selections

We'll begin with my most potentially disastrous selection.

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 1,536

Good thing I got this one, because it was my Can't-Miss Pick and I can't psychologically cope with getting it wrong. Here's how I pitched it last year:

"This guy is sweet with Lotus FieldLotus Field, Oran-Rief, the VastwoodOran-Rief, the Vastwood, and, if you can afford it, Gaea's CradleGaea's Cradle. He even works with other enchanted permanents, not just lands, meaning you get double activations on stuff like Splinter TwinSplinter Twin."

That's all well and good, but I completely missed this guy's synergy with land auras such as Fertile GroundFertile Ground and Utopia SprawlUtopia Sprawl. Plus, those Settlement tokens are free ways to up your enchantment count, which explains why All That GlittersAll That Glitters is Preston's most popular card, appearing in 81% of his decks.

And hey, did my mention of Splinter TwinSplinter Twin inspire Wizards to unban the card in Modern? I'll let the scholars debate that one.

Speaking of debates, I don't think there were many regarding our next commander.

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 13,133

This guy was instantly popular. In fact, Mr. House stands at Rank #52 all time, earning a zinger from me to kick off last year's evaluation.

"The scene depicted in this image is a clear HR violation, though we won't dwell on that."

(It's been a year. Why have we still not told HR?)

"Instead, we'll focus on Yahtzee.

"Well, technically it's not Yahtzee, since you'll be rolling at most four dice, not five. Still, that's a lot, especially when every six-roll gets you another free shot at more Robots. Combine with Wyll, Blade of FrontiersWyll, Blade of Frontiers, Barbarian ClassBarbarian Class, and any card that rolls d20s for maximum profit."

Wyll and Barbarian ClassBarbarian Class both made the High-Synergy list, as did pretty much every dice-rolling card ever printed that isn't blue or green.

The Yahtzee thing was only half a joke, since they might reprint this guy for Universes Beyond: Family Game Night. And speaking of families, let's not forget the family dog.

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 5,590

We'll begin with my opening statement...

"'Dogmeat' is a rather ominous name for a canine..."

I stand by that statement.

"...though I suppose it's acceptable on a three-mana 3/3 that often replaces itself, then adds value on each attack."

The average Dogmeat deck is about what you'd expect: Equipment, Auras, and creatures to attach them to. All that felt easily predictable—except for the part about a planeswalker equipment named The AethersparkThe Aetherspark. That I did not see coming.

But enough about my correct selections. Let's see where I went wrong.

My Biggest Blunders

Among my many mistakes for this set, I only had one Under prediction go Over. And the culprit is...

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 1,304

I'll remind you that Fallout was the first set where I consulted the official Over/Under Consiglieres, who just so happen to be my college chums Jason and Shane (Disclaimer: I stole the term "consigliere" from The Godfather and have only a vague understanding of its meaning).

Basically, I text them pics of new commanders and ask for their opinion when I'm feeling too lazy to formulate my own. And I don't even have to pay them!

Anyhoo, this was our collective opinion of this crabby crab:

"We all recognized the meme potential, but decided it was too low-impact to become a bigtime commander."

Look, I'm still perplexed by this commander's popularity. Clearly, many players think goading is fun enough to build around, even at the cost of free cards for your opponents. I kind of get it; I enjoyed goading my older sister when I was eight. I suppose I'll have to remember that for future sets.

The rest of my blunders were Over predictions that fell short of 1,200—and in some cases, drastically short. Like this one:

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 203

And my thoughts from last year...

"Though most mono-black counter-stacking cares about Vampires rather than Zombies, Hancock still has several options, including The OzolithThe Ozolith, Andúril, Narsil ReforgedAndúril, Narsil Reforged, and even Unexpected FangsUnexpected Fangs."

Though there's no shortage of Zombies in black, I think most players were turned off by the counter-stacking options. They're there, but in hindsight, they're underwhelming.

I mean, most players don't come to EDH to play combat tricks like Maximum OverdriveMaximum Overdrive and Professor's WarningProfessor's Warning.

But Hancock wasn't even my worst-performing Over prediction. This one earned even fewer decks:

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 185

After re-reading last year's analysis, I'm really regretting this selection.

"Torens, Fist of the AngelsTorens, Fist of the Angels is one of the few other commanders with Training and he went Over, which is a good sign for Arthur here. Imagine, for example, casting Lingering SoulsLingering Souls into this. Yes, please."

I know what I sound like when I'm enthused, and that's not it. Honestly, I think I was scarred by Torens, who went Over despite my Under prediction for Innistrad: Crimson Vow, giving me the false impression that Training is a popular mechanic. This dude's performance is making me think otherwise.

Now if you think 185 is a lousy performance, get a load of this commander:

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 157

I described Liz as "a quintessential Boros commander," which is a take that's aged worse than Skip Bayless predicting Johnny Manziel would become bigger than LeBron James.

She only works when you attack with several presumably small creatures, which doesn't work so well in a format known for big, expensive creatures. And if you thought that pick was rough, get a load of this...

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 35

Where did I go wrong? Right here:

"Desdemona is spicy with any small and/or artifact creature that sacs itself for profit. My personal favorite would be Mogg FanaticMogg Fanatic, but I'm sure you'll find your own."

And I didn't even make a Shakespeare joke. Still working on one.

In the meantime, this analysis was a joke in and of itself. I mean, capping this ability at mana value three vastly limits its applications—which was probably smart, since this card could get broken easily.

Plus, I kind of forgot you need to risk Desdemona in combat just to get this going. Talk about tragedies.

Recap

Correct Picks (33)

1. Agent Frank HorriganAgent Frank Horrigan - Over (1,508 decks)
2. Three Dog, Galaxy News DJThree Dog, Galaxy News DJ - Over (2,178 decks)
3. Dogmeat, Ever LoyalDogmeat, Ever Loyal - Over (5,590 decks)
4. Preston Garvey, MinutemanPreston Garvey, Minuteman - Over, Can't-Miss Pick! (1,536 decks)
5. Caesar, Legion's EmperorCaesar, Legion's Emperor - Over (10,988 decks)
6. Mr. House, President and CEOMr. House, President and CEO - Over (13,133 decks)
7. Dr. Madison LiDr. Madison Li - Over (4,993 decks)
8. Liberty Prime, RechargedLiberty Prime, Recharged - Over (3,619 decks)
9. The Master, TranscendentThe Master, Transcendent - Over (3,066 decks)
10. The Wise MothmanThe Wise Mothman - Over (16,173 decks)
11. Aradesh, the FounderAradesh, the Founder - Under (76 decks)
12. Codsworth, Handy HelperCodsworth, Handy Helper - Under (85 decks)
13. Commander Sofia DaguerreCommander Sofia Daguerre - Under (30 decks)
14. Overseer of Vault 76Overseer of Vault 76 - Under (57 decks)
15. Paladin Danse, Steel MaverickPaladin Danse, Steel Maverick - Under (28 decks)
16. Sierra, Nuka's Biggest FanSierra, Nuka's Biggest Fan - Under (330 decks)
17. Curie, Emergent IntelligenceCurie, Emergent Intelligence - Under (607 decks)
18. James, Wandering DadJames, Wandering Dad - Under (89 decks)
19. Jason Bright, Glowing ProphetJason Bright, Glowing Prophet - Under (80 decks)
20. Nick Valentine, Private EyeNick Valentine, Private Eye - Under (191 decks)
21. Piper Wright, Publick ReporterPiper Wright, Publick Reporter - Under (555 decks)
22. Butch DeLoria, Tunnel SnakeButch DeLoria, Tunnel Snake - Under (294 decks)
23. Duchess, Wayward TavernkeepDuchess, Wayward Tavernkeep - Under (24 decks)
24. Ian the RecklessIan the Reckless - Under (119 decks)
25. The Motherlode, ExcavatorThe Motherlode, Excavator - Under (126 decks)
26. Veronica, Dissident ScribeVeronica, Dissident Scribe - Under (86 decks)
27. Harold and Bob, First NumensHarold and Bob, First Numens - Under (76 decks)
28. Arcade GannonArcade Gannon - Under (250 decks)
29. Elder Owyn LyonsElder Owyn Lyons - Under (44 decks)
30. Cass, Hand of VengeanceCass, Hand of Vengeance - Under (223 decks)
31. Craig Boone, Novac GuardCraig Boone, Novac Guard - Under (458 decks)
32. Marcus, Mutant MayorMarcus, Mutant Mayor - Under (201 decks)
33. ED-E, Lonesome EyebotED-E, Lonesome Eyebot - Under (142 decks)

Incorrect Picks (19)

1. Yes Man, Personal SecuritronYes Man, Personal Securitron - Over Under (712 decks)
2. Hancock, Ghoulish MayorHancock, Ghoulish Mayor - Over Under (203 decks)
3. Rose, Cutthroat RaiderRose, Cutthroat Raider - Over Under (685 decks)
4. Lily Bowen, Raging GrandmaLily Bowen, Raging Grandma - Over Under (357 decks)
5. Strong, the Brutish ThespianStrong, the Brutish Thespian- Over Under (527 decks)
6. Rex, Cyber-HoundRex, Cyber-Hound - Over Under (846 decks)
7. Raul, Trouble ShooterRaul, Trouble Shooter - Over Under (223 decks)
8. Kellogg, Dangerous MindKellogg, Dangerous Mind - Over Under (486 decks)
9. Legate Lanius, Caesar's AceLegate Lanius, Caesar's Ace - Over Under (242 decks)
10. Cait, Cage BrawlerCait, Cage Brawler - Over Under (633 decks)
11. Colonel AutumnColonel Autumn - Over Under (385 decks)
12. Elder Arthur MaxsonElder Arthur Maxson - Over Under (185 decks)
13. MacCready, Lamplight MayorMacCready, Lamplight Mayor - Over Under (820 decks)
14. Shaun, Father of SynthsShaun, Father of Synths - Over Under (501 decks)
15. Desdemona, Freedom's EdgeDesdemona, Freedom's Edge - Over Under (35 decks)
16. Moira Brown, Guide AuthorMoira Brown, Guide Author - Over Under (299 decks)
17. Paladin Elizabeth TaggerdyPaladin Elizabeth Taggerdy - Over Under (157 decks)
18. Sentinel Sarah LyonsSentinel Sarah Lyons - Over Under (229 decks)
19. Red Death, ShipwreckerRed Death, Shipwrecker - Under Over (1,304 decks)

My Fallout Correct Prediction Percentage: 63%

My Overall Correct Prediction Percentage: 74%

Better than my shameful performance with Doctor Who, but still not great. These Universes Beyond sets are proving volatile. Some, like Lord of the Rings, are Commander mega hits, while others, like the aforementioned Doctor Who, are flubs.

Fallout lies somewhere in the middle. Here's hoping the next one does a little better.