Abhorrent OculusAbhorrent Oculus | Art by Bryan Sola

These toys don't go winding down, because it's time for another edition of The Over/Under. Also, they're homicidal.

In this article series, I predict how popular new commanders will become a year after their release. It's been more than that long since I reviewed the commanders from Duskmourn: House of Horrors, so it's time to see how I did.

Remember, each commander got an "Over" or "Under" prediction for a line of 1,200 decks. I also had a Can't-Miss Pick, which was my surest selection. If you'd like to relive the glory days, you'll find last year's article at this link. Otherwise, keep reading, since we'll refer back to it throughout this one.

One last note: These numbers were screenshotted from the website on Duskmourn's first birthday, which was September 27, 2025. Just took me a while to get to it.

Fear of Overall Impressions

This was probably my favorite set of 2024. I say "probably" because I go back and forth between this and Modern Horizons 3. At any rate, it was undeniably awesome. From the clever revamp of manifest to the return of delirium, along with a strong crop of commanders and some strong precon decks, this set pretty much had it all.

I mean, just check these numbers...

• Total number of commanders: 27
• Total number of commander decks: 134,292
• Average commander deck count: 4,974
• Most decks: Arabella, Abandoned DollArabella, Abandoned Doll (14,094 decks)
• Fewest decks: Altanak, the Thrice-CalledAltanak, the Thrice-Called (36 decks)

My only criticism of this set might be a familiar one: Duskmourn is to Innistrad as Bloomburrow was to Lorwyn. In other words, they're too similar.

Imagine we're doing a free association test. Don't ask me why—we just are. When you say, "Horror-themed Magic plane," I say, "Innistrad." When you say, "Graveyard set," I say, "Innistrad." When you say, "Top down designs based on classic genre tropes," I say, "Huh?" And then you repeat yourself, this time a little louder, and then I'm like, "Oh yeah, sorry. Innistrad."

This is my lone problem with Duskmourn. It's so similar to Innistrad that it should've just been Innistrad. I know we've been to that plane several times now, but the same is true for Ravnica, and it's not like people tired of that place (except for the sudden surplus of Detectives). Duskmourn could've easily been rebranded as Innistrad: House of Horrors, an event set where a haunted house sprouts up in Kessig, or Gavony, or wherever, and our same cast of characters goes to investigate.

Same premise, same flavor, same set—only this time it doesn't feel like we've run out of ideas for original planes. Because with Bloomburrow and Duskmourn coming back-to-back, that's been my concern.

And hey, I suppose that's one of the upsides of so many more Universes Beyond properties. Sometimes, an adaptation of Final Fantasy feels more original than a quote-unquote "original" plane like ol' Dusky.

But I digress. A lot. As usual. So let's look at some of my makes. And misses.

Fear of Stuff I Got Right

JK, I'm not really afraid of this stuff. Just trying to be consistent. The next heading, though...

But let's not dread what's to come. Let's savor what's here, starting with this thing:

Rendmaw, Creaking NestRendmaw, Creaking Nest

My prediction: Over

Final deck count: 8,324

Not only did I opt for the Over on this bad boy—I made it my Can't-Miss Pick. Here was my rationale:

"Rendmaw itself brings the first swarm of crows, and from there, it's easier than it might seem to add more. We've got no shortage of artifact creatures and enchantment creatures, plus even a few artifact enchantments from the original Theros."

That's Bow of NyleaBow of Nylea and Whip of ErebosWhip of Erebos, by the way, both of which you'll find in the average Rendmaw list. I proceeded to note...

"Note that Rendmaw says 'play' instead of 'cast,' meaning even artifact lands like Vault of WhispersVault of Whispers and Tree of TalesTree of Tales get the job done."

And indeed, you'll see Tree of TalesTree of Tales, Vault of WhispersVault of Whispers, and Darksteel CitadelDarksteel Citadel appearing in 94%, 93%, and 85% of these decks, respectively. For those not running them, I'd have to assume it's because those artifact lands get a little pricey for commons. Trust me: they're better than they look.

Last note on Rendmaw before we continue: Pygmy KavuPygmy Kavu appears in 58% of lists. I've never seen this card until now, but it's hilarious. Finds like that are why I love EDHREC.

And speaking of love, I love this next commander:

Zimone, Mystery UnravelerZimone, Mystery Unraveler

My prediction: Over

Final deck count: 10,631

After joking around about different branches of mathematics that Zimone may or may not be interested in, I actually got serious with some analysis:

"Zimone works quite well with several pre-existing cards, including Secret PlansSecret Plans, Trail of MysteryTrail of Mystery, Deathmist RaptorDeathmist Raptor, and lots more. Consider this mystery unraveled."

I purchased this precon myself, so I can attest to its efficacy, especially when you combine Retreat to CoralhelmRetreat to Coralhelm with Walking AtlasWalking Atlas, Sakura-Tribe ScoutSakura-Tribe Scout, or any creature that taps to place a land on the battlefield. Landfalls trigger Zimone, of course, and they also let you untap the Walking Atlas and do it again, until you've emptied your hand. It's a potent little value engine, which is why I'm surprised none of those tappers appear in the average Zimone list. Odd. Pun intended.

Our next two commanders I'd like to examine in tandem.

Valgavoth, Harrower of SoulsValgavoth, Harrower of Souls and Valgavoth, Terror EaterValgavoth, Terror Eater

My predictions: Overs for both

Final deck counts: 13,381 and 3,408, respectively

These days, it's not unusual to see a character get multiple versions of themselves in a single set. (Just look at Spider-Man. The entire set was basically the Spider-Man pointing meme.) However, you don't always see both versions become smash hits—particularly Harrower of Souls, which currently stands as Rakdos's most popular commander by a 10,000 deck margin. We'll start there:

"This trigger is kind of weird, honestly, since it only works on your opponents' turns, and only once per. However, many classic tools from Rakdos, Lord of RiotsRakdos, Lord of Riots lists still work, including Spear SpewerSpear Spewer, Thermo-AlchemistThermo-Alchemist, and Nettle DroneNettle Drone. Plus, it's a commander product commander, so that always boosts numbers."

Little did I know Val here would overtake Rakdos in a matter of months. (Maybe even weeks—I don't remember.) At any rate, adding card draw to this effect makes it positively bonkers, especially considering most pingers require no mana to activate. Probably could've hit that point harder. And what about our mono-colored Valgavoth?

"Valgavoth reminds me of Bolas's CitadelBolas's Citadel, a card that appears in a heck of a lot of decks—221,039, to be exact. If Valgavoth achieves even a fraction of that popularity, he'll be an easy Over."

A fraction indeed, yet still, it was enough. Funnily enough, we got an even more direct comparison to Citadel in Spider-Man's Gwenom, RemorselessGwenom, Remorseless, a card that's already gone Over, and isn't far behind Val himself. Turns out players enjoy casting stuff for free. Who knew?

One last correct prediction to cover before the not-so-correct ones.

Norin, Swift SurvivalistNorin, Swift Survivalist

My prediction: Under

Final deck count: 1,182

Having the creature type Coward is a rough start. And here's how my argument ended:

"This is a funny card, but my main issue is the agency Norrin gives your opponents. Sure, you can attack with your Dockside ExtortionistDockside Extortionist...but your opponents can just take one [damage]. I'm out."

That example hasn't aged well, since Dockside was banned two days after my article went live. Wish I'd known that was coming, if only to sell it off before the price plummeted...but it's not like predicting stuff is my job or anything.

At any rate, agency is Norin's downfall. Deck builders have gotten creative with these lists, creating a damned-if-you-do scenario with cheap enter-the-battlefield creatures combined with combat damage triggers, i.e. Voldaren EpicureVoldaren Epicure equipped with Infiltration LensInfiltration Lens. Either block it and give another Blood token plus a ping, or take it and give the attacker two cards. It's cute, but not cute enough to inspire 18 more deck builders.

Margins don't get much closer than that.

Fear of Stuff I Got Wrong

Now this is a genuine fear. Seriously, it's called "atelophobia," also known as a fear of imperfection, and Google assures me it's a real thing. Here's where my atelophobia peaked.

Arabella, Abandoned DollArabella, Abandoned Doll

My prediction: Under

Final deck count: 14,094

If there was ever any suspicion that I peek at the commanders before making my picks, let this be a lesson to ye of little faith. This was probably already over 1,200 by the time I clicked "submit."

Still, if I may defend myself, I had an explanation for the Under:

"If you encounter someone who's running this as their commander, that person is clearly a deranged psychopath and you should leave before they murder you. I'm genuinely hoping there are fewer than 1,200 deranged psychopaths out there."

Huh. That's not much of an explanation. In fact, by this logic, there are about 14,000 psychopaths prowling the local game stores around the world. More, actually, since that figure comes from back in September. Sounds about right.

But I shouldn't use humor to deflect my failings. That's what I did in the first place with this commander, and it led to me here, now, underrating not just the most popular commander of the set and the most popular Boros () commander, but one of the most popular commanders around (she currently sits at #66). Takeaway: I'm cracking too much wise. It's time to get serious.

...Right after I whine about our next commander.

Kona, Rescue BeastieKona, Rescue Beastie

My prediction: Under

Final deck count: 7,152

I hate this card. I hate that it has a flashlight. I hate that it has, like, three heads. I hate that I missed the "permanent" part in its flavor text, since I'd shorthanded it to creatures. I also hate that I wrote this:

"Vehicles make triggering this beastie pretty easy...but is that appealing enough? This just feels sort of mid to me. I mean, dropping free fatties sounds fun, but your opponents will see them coming from a mile away."

Well, Kyle, it's actually trivially easy to tap Kona, even on the turn you cast her. Jaspera SentinelJaspera Sentinel, Saruli CaretakerSaruli Caretaker, Loam DryadLoam Dryad, even the spaceships from Edge of Eternities. Granted, that set hadn't released yet, but I'm just looking for new flogs to flagellate myself with. Figuratively, of course. Who do you think I am? That albino dude from The Da Vinci Code?

Anyway, where was I? Oh yeah—hating on Kona. I just know that someday, someone's going to drop a turn-four Worldspine WurmWorldspine Wurm on me with this thing, and I'm gonna be sad. Looking forward to it.

And finally, we'll close this review with my most irrational selection of the set:

Kianne, Corrupted MemoryKianne, Corrupted Memory

My prediction: Over

Final deck count: 595

I'm no mathematician, but I'm pretty sure 595 isn't even half of 1,200. Here was my take:

"Casting creatures or noncreatures with flash is a fairly powerful ability, and getting counters for every card drawn is even better, especially in Simic. Plus, Kianne's part of the Commander precon product, and we know what that usually means."

The operative word here being "usually." Kianne was, in fact, the only precon commander to undershoot the mark—and I should've anticipated it from personal experience alone. Remember when I said I bought this deck? Well, when I did, I promptly shoved Kianne into my trade binder and never looked at her again. Should've taken that as a red flag.

Fear of a Recap

Correct Picks (19)

1. The MindskinnerThe Mindskinner - Over (8,101 decks)
2. Valgavoth, Terror EaterValgavoth, Terror Eater - Over (3,408 decks)
3. Niko, Light of HopeNiko, Light of Hope - Over (6,197 decks)
4. The Lord of PainThe Lord of Pain - Over (4,398 decks)
5. Valgavoth, Harrower of SoulsValgavoth, Harrower of Souls - Over (13,381 decks)
6. Victor, Valgavoth's SeneschalVictor, Valgavoth's Seneschal - Over (1,823 decks)
7. Rendmaw, Creaking NestRendmaw, Creaking Nest - Can't-Miss Pick (8,324 decks)
8. Winter, Cynical OpportunistWinter, Cynical Opportunist - Over (4,802 decks)
9. The Jolly Balloon ManThe Jolly Balloon Man - Over (8,246 decks)
10. Zimone, Mystery UnravelerZimone, Mystery Unraveler - Over (10,631 decks)
11. Aminatou, Veil PiercerAminatou, Veil Piercer - Over (12,389 decks)
12. The Master of KeysThe Master of Keys - Over (5,799 decks)
13. Winter, Misanthropic GuideWinter, Misanthropic Guide - Over (5,940 decks)
14. Marina VendrellMarina Vendrell - Over (9,902 decks)
15. Marvin, Murderous MimicMarvin, Murderous Mimic - Over (1,378 decks)
16. Norin, Swift SurvivalistNorin, Swift Survivalist - Under (1,182 decks)
17. Altanak, the Thrice-CalledAltanak, the Thrice-Called - Under (36 decks)
18. Tyvar, the PummelerTyvar, the Pummeler - Under (670 decks)
19. Rip, Spawn HunterRip, Spawn Hunter - Under (1,129 decks)

Incorrect Picks (8)

1. The Wandering RescuerThe Wandering Rescuer - Over Under (679 decks)
2. Toby, Beastie BefrienderToby, Beastie Befriender - Over Under (732 decks)
3. Nashi, Searcher in the DarkNashi, Searcher in the Dark - Over Under (1,149 decks)
4. The SwarmweaverThe Swarmweaver - Over Under (1,022 decks)
5. Kianne, Corrupted MemoryKianne, Corrupted Memory - Over Under (595 decks)
6. Zimone, All-QuestioningZimone, All-Questioning - Over Under (1,133 decks)
7. Kona, Rescue BeastieKona, Rescue Beastie - Under Over (7,152 decks)
8. Arabella, Abandoned DollArabella, Abandoned Doll - Under Over (14,094 decks)

My Duskmourn Correct Prediction Percentage: 70%

My Overall Correct Prediction Percentage: 74%

(Background art is Nine Lives by Paul Scott Canavan.)

Well, at least we bounced back from the credibility assassination that was Assassin's Creed. Creed was a bigger mess than the last Creed show I attended (summer of 2024 at Saratoga Performing Arts Center, and I was highly disappointed). But hopefully you're not too disappointed in my selections for this set.

...Well, Arabella, maybe. I've got no defense for that one.