The Fourth Doctor | Art by David Auden Nash

A Historically Lousy Performance

Welcome back to The Over/Under, the article series where I guess how popular new commanders will become after a year's time. Sometimes, I do this well. Sometimes, I do it less well. And sometimes, I set a new career low.

Today, we'll be reviewing my (horrendous) selections from the Doctor Who commander product. The line is 1,200 decks, so each commander received an "Over" or "Under" prediction relative to that line.

For those interested, you can read last year's article at this link. Otherwise, feel free to keep reading, since I'll be quoting pertinent passages throughout.

Ready to commiserate in my misery? Let's begin.

Overall Impressions

You know those days when you just don't have it? You spill your coffee, bend your fender on the morning commute, lose your wallet, then discover your doctorate has been revoked because the board discovered you are not, in fact, a medical doctor, but rather a quote-unquote "Time Lord" who just so happens to use the same title? You ever have a day like that?

That's basically what happened to me with this set, only I'll also get a bunch of "I-told-you-so"s in the comments section.

I'll be honest with you, EDHREC readers: In six years of writing these articles, this is my worst performance yet. It's even worse than the 50% accuracy of Guilds of Ravnica way back in 2018, when I'd just started the series and sets only had about 10 commanders per. In fact, I could've flipped a coin for each pick and done better. A bad day indeed.

But enough about me. Let's talk about the set. The word I'd use to describe it is a similar word one might use to describe my selections for the set itself: Underwhelming. After all, coming on the heels of 2022's Warhammer, a set that produced 15 Overs out of 24 commanders, you'd think our next Universes Beyond commander product would perform similarly.

That's where you—or more so I—would be wrong. Here are the stats:

• Total number of commanders: 73
• Total number of commander decks: 61,763
• Average commander deck count: 846
• Most decks: The Tenth Doctor (4,604 decks)
• Fewest decks: Karvanista, Loyal Lupari (55 decks)

Anecdotally, the contrast in popularity between a Doctor Who set and a Warhammer set makes sense. After all, Warhammer players are usually not far from us MTG folks at your standard gaming store.

We eye each other curiously, wondering what the heck the other is doing. I even played Magic with my neighbors for the first time at a prerelease last year, all because they were Warhammer players interested in trying Magic after the crossover.

Doctor Who is a different story—quite literally. Though it's hard to dispute the popularity of a show that's been alive longer than I have, it's also harder to see the crossover with MTG fandom.

I mean, I'm certain fans of both properties are out there. Yet I'd argue other Universes Beyond IP partnerships made more sense for Magic's fanbase.

Fallout and Assassin's Creed are both video games, Warhammer is a wargame, and Lord of the Rings shares MTG's fantasy milieu. While those former two sets have yet to be finalized, both Warhammer and LOTR featured far higher average commander deck counts, which supports my theory.

Overall, maybe a Doctor Who set just didn't resonate with the EDH community at large.

Take The Eleventh Doctor as an example. As a novice to the show, I have a vague understanding of Time Lords visiting times and places using a phone booth as transportation. (Huh. When you put it like that, it sounds kinda silly.) So the time counters make some sense, and that flavor resonates.

However, I have no idea what the "I am talking!" thing means. Must be a line from the show. And the activated ability is equally baffling from a flavor standpoint. He looks out for the little guy? I guess? Furthermore, if I was a complete newcomer to this IP, I'd have to wonder why there are 11—and in fact 15—different versions of the same character.

I suppose one could argue this builds curiosity for Doctor Who. If I'm a curious Magic player, maybe I watch the show to answer my questions. Instead, based on the performance of these commanders, I'd have to guess players simply didn't care enough for the product.

Still not convinced? Compare this set to Commander Legends. Both were Commander-exclusive products that offered a plethora of partner commanders (technically they're called Doctor's companions in this set, but they're the same). Partners are always popular cards for deckbuilders, since they provide countless combinations.

Therefore, even fairly mediocre partners from Commander Legends like Armix, Filigree Thrasher scored big (2,734 decks).

By contrast, we've got ostensibly unique and interesting Doctor's companions like Jo Grant scoring just 206 total decks. To me, that speaks to a disconnect between the player base and the selected IP.

Still not convinced? Let's take a closer look at some of the set's most notable commanders.

My Solid Selections

I feel like I've gotten a little negative here, so let's start with something positive—the set's most popular commander.

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 4,604 total

Though you won't find the word "partner" on these doctors, they've essentially got that keyword nonetheless. That's because the exclusive Doctor's companion text appears on numerous cards in this set, allowing you to use two commanders if one is a doctor—like our Tenth Doctor here. In last year's article, I predicted the following:

"...This card reminds me of Jhoira of the Ghitu, a commander who leads 2,831 decks."

Indeed, this doctor even outperformed his inspiration. His primary collaborator is Rose Tyler, and it's no wonder they became so popular. In addition to being flat out cool commanders, our most recent set, Duskmourn, gave us a mythic cycle of time counter goodies (that's Overlord of the Boilerbilges and his friends), plus another fun build-around in Cursed Recording. Couldn't have predicted it, but I'm glad it happened.

Speaking of Rose Tyler, let's see what she's up to next.

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 3,767 total

Spoiler: I was wrong on all eight other mono-white Doctor's companions, so it was heartening not to go winless. Thanks, Rose. Here's what I thought of her chances last year:

"Suspend is a sweet throwback mechanic, and it gets excellent reinforcements from this set, such as Atraxi Warden and the wonderfully named Dinosaurs on a Spaceship."

...And that's it. Man, my analysis was kind of curt for this set. I suppose that's what happens when you're given 73 commanders, which is still somehow only a little more than half of Lord of the Rings.

But I digress. Where was I? Oh yes, Rose. She and The Tenth Doctor accounted for 3,604 decks, but there are some other fun combinations, including the Ninth, Thirteenth, and Fourteenth Docs.

As I mentioned, it's still a lot less support than you'd expect from a partner commander—but I'll happily take the Over.

Next up, let's talk about one of the coolest commanders in the set.

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 3,562

My thoughts on this fella were as follows:

"Cards like Feldon of the Third Path and, Orthion, Hero of Lavabrink suddenly skyrocket in value, breaking ground for a mostly unexplored archetype."

Those two dudes do indeed appear among The Master's High Synergy Cards, along with pretty much anything that produces temporary tokens.

The cool part is, once the prescribed time for your tokens to vanish passes (usually end of combat or end of turn), the tokens will stick around, even if The Master doesn't. Nice.

I'd usually spend more time on these Solid Selections, but I'm in a real Eeyore mood today. (Side note: When can we expect Universes Beyond: Winnie the Pooh?)

My Big Mistakes

Of my 39 incorrect selections (you read that right—39), 33 were Overs that went Under. Turns out that was the overriding story of this here set; I vastly overestimated how popular it would become. This commander is a great example:

My prediction: Over

Final deck count: 75

Not 750. 75. Soraya the Falconer leads more decks than that, and that card has the word "banding" on it! Here's why I gave the Over...

"Two commanders for the price of one, and both ramp and/or draw cards. Seems osgood to me."

I mean, this is basically Stangg, Echo Warrior crossed with Vega, the Watcher and a Powerstone token, yet it finds fewer decks than the average common. Or what about this one?

My prediction: Over

Final deck count: 518

Despite being a unique commander supporting a strategy that's been a fan favorite for years, and on top of that being "an unholy bargain for this amount of stats" (as I mentioned last year), The Beast couldn't even get halfway to the mark. I firmly believe that in any other set, both this and Osgood would've done os-way-better-than-this.

Maybe it was Doctor Who, or a backlash against Universes Beyond, or the cards themselves, but something strange happened with this set.

...Or maybe I'm just getting worse at this. But before we dwell on that possibility too long, let's proceed to some other commanders.

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 1,603 total

This one was especially surprising since it's one of my few Under guesses to go Over. Last year I wrote...

"Hill Giant and Archivist aren't particularly interesting. But what if you combined them into one card? The result is Yasmin Khan, and unfortunately her Magic treatment still isn't that interesting."

Of course, now that we're a year removed, I see that 1,248 of Yasmin's 1,603 decks are partnered with The Thirteenth Doctor, who's the perfect compliment. That feels like a clear oversight on my part: Partners of the past were designed to work with several others, while these seem designed with specific partners in mind.

We'll end on a low note, which is thematically relevant for today's article.

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 1,222

Last year I wrote...

"Group Slug and Group Hug combined? That mixes worse than the Taco Bell Breakfast Menu and a morning jog."

...And after seeing this result, I gave up trying to understand this set. Longtime readers of this series will know that Group Hug is one of my most hated EDH archetypes, and I'll only hate it more after this. Seriously, any commander that has Crumb and Get It as a High Synergy Card is one I'll never understand.

Recap

Correct Picks (34)

1. Rose Tyler - Over (3,767 decks)
2. The Master, Multiplied - Over (3,562 decks)
3. River Song - Over (1,956 decks)
4. The Tenth Doctor - Over (4,604 total decks)
5. The Twelfth Doctor - Over (1,653 total decks)
6. The War Doctor - Over (2,328 total decks)
7. The Sixth Doctor - Over (1,750 decks)
8. The Thirteenth Doctor - Over (1,798 decks)
9. Davros, Dalek Creator - Over (3,292 decks)
10. Missy - Over (1,666 decks)
11. Me, the Immortal - Over (1,496 decks)
12. Clara Oswald - Over (3,441 total decks)
13. Astrid Peth - Under (87 total decks)
14. Barbara Wright - Under (113 total decks)
15. Ian Chesterton - Under (215 total decks)
16. Tegan Jovanka - Under (257 total decks)
17. Adric, Mathematical Genius - Under (377 total decks)
18. Martha Jones - Under (291 total decks)
19. Dan Lewis - Under (367 total decks)
20. Ace, Fearless Rebel - Under (160 total decks)
21. Graham O'Brien - Under (251 total decks)
22. Leela, Sevateem Warrior - Under (393 total decks)
23. Sally Sparrow - Under (108 decks)
24. The Master, Mesmerist - Under (179 decks)[/el]
25. The Dalek Emperor - Under (284 decks)
26. Strax, Sontaran Nurse - Under (78 decks)
27. Idris, Soul of the TARDIS - Under (57 decks)
28. Jenny, Generated Anomaly - Under (92 decks)
29. Duggan, Private Detective - Under (75 decks)
30. The Rani - Under (900 decks)
31. The Valeyard - Under (565 decks)
32. Alistair, the Brigadier - Under (859 decks)
33. Jenny Flint + Madame Vastra - Under (1,020 decks)
34. Kate Stewart - Under (146 decks)

Incorrect Picks (39)

1. Jo Grant - Over Under (206 total decks)
2. Peri Brown - Over Under (628 total decks)
3. Romana II - Over Under (819 total decks)
4. Wilfred Mott - Over Under (179 decks)
5. Danny Pink - Over Under (162 decks)
6. K-9, Mark I - Over Under (591 total decks)
7. Nardole, Resourceful Cyborg - Over Under (94 total decks)
8. Nyssa of Traken - Over Under (86 total decks)
9. Osgood, Operation Double - Over Under (75 decks)
10. Bill Potts - Over Under (78 total decks)
11. Iraxxa, Empress of Mars - Over Under (175 decks)
12. Jamie McCrimmon - Over Under (176 total decks)
13. Karvanista, Loyal Lupari - Over Under (55 decks)
14. The Eighth Doctor - Over Under (178 total decks)
15. The Eleventh Doctor - Over Under (799 total decks)
16. The Fifth Doctor - Over Under (460 total decks)
17. The First Doctor - Over Under (399 total decks)
18. The Second Doctor - Over Under (1,143 total decks)
19. The Seventh Doctor - Over Under (360 total decks)
20. Rassilon, the War President - Over Under (149 decks)
21. The Cyber-Controller - Over Under (853 decks)
22. The Master, Formed Anew - Over Under (401 decks)
23. The Beast, Deathless Prince - Over Under (518 decks)
24. The Master, Gallifrey's End - Over Under (109 decks)
25. The Fugitive Doctor - Over Under (365 total decks)
26. Vrestin, Menoptra Leader - Over Under (542 total decks)
27. The Ninth Doctor - Over Under (942 total decks)
28. The Fourth Doctor - Over Under (1,090 total decks)
29. The Third Doctor - Over Under (947 total decks)
30. Ashad, the Lone Cyberman - Over Under (1,074 decks)
31. Cult of Skaro - Over Under (458 decks)
32. Amy Pond + Rory Williams - Over Under (796 total decks)
33. The Face of Boe - Over Under (412 decks)
34. Sarah Jane Smith - Under Over (1,664 total decks)
35. Vislor Turlough - Under Over (1,351 total decks)
36. Ryan Sinclair - Under Over (1,201 total decks)
37. Yasmin Khan - Under Over (1,603 total decks)
38. Susan Foreman - Under Over (1,216 total decks)
39. Sergeant John Benton - Under Over (1,222 decks)