Hugs, Grisly GuardianHugs, Grisly Guardian | Art by Steve Prescott

And you thought the squirrels in your neighborhood were annoying. I mean, have you played against Hazel of the RootbloomHazel of the Rootbloom yet?

Today we're taking the Over/Under back to Bloomburrow. In this series, we guess how popular new commanders will become one year after their release, using "Over" or "Under" a line of 1,200 decks.

I made my picks for Bloomburrow a little over a year ago, so now it's time to check my work. You can review last year's article here, or proceed, since I'll be reminding you of my best (and worst) takes throughout this one.

But first...

Some Overall Thoughts on Bloomburrow

I was a little lower on this set than the community at large. While I too appreciated the whimsical nature of this crop of commanders, I couldn't help but feel the market on whimsy had already been cornered by another plane entirely: Lorwyn.

Yes, longtime readers of this series will remember that original Lorwyn is my favorite set ever. It's more than the aforementioned whimsy — it's the kindred synergies, the bright color palettes, and the total disregard for human life (since there are, in fact, no Humans allowed).

Of course, that all describes Bloomburrow, too. That's why it was so difficult for me to enjoy this set as much as I probably should've. I couldn't help but look at cards like Ygra, Eater of AllYgra, Eater of All and think, There are Elementals on Lorwyn, too. Remember? Remember!?

I pretty much just wanted a return to my favorite plane. Fortunately, we're finally getting that come next year. But at the time it was difficult to see past my own personal bias.

With the benefit of a year to review, I will say my opinion has improved - somewhat. From a design perspective, this set clearly offers better commanders than Lorwyn did. Many of them, including Ms. BumbleflowerMs. Bumbleflower and Baylen, the HaymakerBaylen, the Haymaker, are among the most popular in the format. Plus, there's just more variety to choose from; Bloomburrow offered 34 commanders, while my beloved only had a measly 10.

What's more, I'll admit that the kindred creature types of Bloomburrow are pretty fun. Frogs were my favorite, but the Otters, Raccoons, Squirrels, and even the Rats had their own distinct charm. If I had to describe that set in a word, that's the word I'd use: charming.

Still, I'm unsure the charm carried over to the set mechanics. There was nothing instantly synonymous with the plane, similar to, say, ninjutsu and Kamigawa. Offspring came the closest, although it made little impact outside Zinnia, Valley's VoiceZinnia, Valley's Voice.

Gifting was largely uninteresting, valiant was just another riff on heroic, and expend was super clunky. Forage was decent enough, although the Squirrels hoarded it all to themselves. Still better than clash from Lorwyn, I'll admit, but I think it's time to stop the comparisons...

My opinions notwithstanding, this set was an unmitigated success with the community at large. I mean, just look at these overall stats:

• Total number of commanders: 34
• Total number of Commander decks: 253,476
• Average Commander deck count: 7,455
• Most decks: Baylen, the HaymakerBaylen, the Haymaker - 19,608
• Fewest decks: Kitsa, Otterball EliteKitsa, Otterball Elite - 577 decks

These are massive numbers. Like, Shohei Ohtani kind of numbers. Compare them to Outlaws of Thunder Junction, for instance, which had almost twice the commanders (52) yet boasted about half the decks (140,678). And it's not like OTJ was a bust — Bloomburrow was just a mega smash hit in the Commander sphere.

I mean, 577 decks for your worst commander isn't even that bad. Most sets have a low commander with just double-digits. And speaking from personal experience, my playgroup features Alania, Hazel, Bumbleflower, and Zoraline decks. I myself am trying to harness the power of Flubs, although it's feeling like a fool's errand.

So, overall, players loved this set's flavor and artwork, as evidenced by the quarter-of-a-million total decks made. Furthermore, Bloomburrow introduced numerous new standouts to our format, along with some pretty fun precon decks.

Hard to call it anything but a triumph, even if it isn't Lorwyn.

My Solid Selections

These weren't hard to come by, quite honestly. I mean, if I'd taken the Over on everything, I actually would've done better. Someday I'll have to do that, just for the content.

Anyhoo, I'd like to highlight a few of my favorites, starting with...

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 16,103

In a set of weird commanders, this might be the weirdest. First of all, Flubs, the FoolFlubs, the Fool didn't appear in Play Boosters or precon decks – he was a Buy-A-Box promo. I honestly didn't even know that at the time of writing, and I'm glad I didn't, because I might've gotten cute and predicted an Under.

Turns out the unusual printing mattered not in the slightest. This weirdo can be built in so many ways, from lands matter to discard to several themes in between.

I myself tried building him as a Valakut, the Molten PinnacleValakut, the Molten Pinnacle vehicle, which became more of a Field of the DeadField of the Dead vehicle, which felt too repetitive, so I'm currently trying a Keruga, the MacrosageKeruga, the Macrosage companion build with Primal SurgePrimal Surge as the game-ender. Wish me luck.

And now, from a Frog to a Raccoon...

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 16,625

Highlighting this fella because he's another weird one. Referring back to my take from last year...

"Bello resembles a feral Tom Nook, though Nook still drives the harder bargain."

Still holds up.

"His requisite artifacts and enchantments aren’t hard to come by, and many, such as Nylea, God of the HuntNylea, God of the Hunt or any other Therosian on-color Gods, actively want to be animated. All hail Bello—and Nook, for that matter."

Indeed, we do see Nylea appearing in 28% of Bello decks, along with Xenagos, God of RevelsXenagos, God of Revels at 14%. That's a little lower than I expected, probably because the Bello-builders are thinking far bigger (and Raccoonier) than I am.

I mean, Berserkers' OnslaughtBerserkers' Onslaught and Gratuitous ViolenceGratuitous Violence appear in 88% and 80% of decks, respectively, which should tell you all you need to know.

But that's not all you need to know. You also need to know about this. This Owl. This mean, mean Owl.

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 5,032

I'm going to include my entire take here, since it's just three sentences:

"The most obvious — and dare I say, cruel — combo with Maha is Night of Souls' BetrayalNight of Souls' Betrayal. Your opponents won't be allowed to keep a single creature until thy answer that combo. If that isn’t enough for an Over, I don’t know what is."

Of course, I forgot about Kaervek, the SpitefulKaervek, the Spiteful, which somehow edged out the Night by five percentage points in the High Synergy Cards section. The rest of this deck is pretty much the same sort of stuff, with -1/-1 counters being the top theme.

What I'm trying to say is, this looks like the all-time most frustrating deck to play against, and I hope I never encounter it in the wild.

And hey, speaking of wild, let's get into America's favorite segment: My Biggest Blunders.

My Biggest Blunders (You're Welcome, America)

I like to begin with the biggest of the biggest so that by the end, you (might?) forget how egregious some of last year's predictions turned out to be. For Bloomburrow, that happened to be whatever the heck this thing is:

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 9,162

Are we sure we're still in 'Burrow with this art? And not back in Jurassic Park? Or maybe Ikoria?

Alright, enough distraction and deflection. Let's dig into last year's wayward opinions:

"The last time we saw flood counters was on Xolatoyac, the Smiling FloodXolatoyac, the Smiling Flood from Lost Caverns of Ixalan. That card has already gone Over, but Eluge here looks like too good a fit in Xolatoyac’s 99. I expect that's where it'll end up, rather than headlining its own deck."

Oh dear. That gets uglier the more you read it, so I suggest proceeding before I turn your stomach. After all, Eluge's 9,162 decks not only double, but triple Xolatoyac 3,239 (shoutout to my pal Drew, who's one of those 3k).

So how did I get this one so wrong? I suppose I should've spent more time on r/EDH, because while others were extolling its virtues, I was wondering why Eluge didn't spark joy for me in that Marie Kondo way. I mean, sure, it's an eventually massive body that eventually allows you to cast Cryptic CommandCryptic Command and better for zero mana, and even floods you opponents' battlefields so your Stormtide LeviathanStormtide Leviathan can landwalk in there for big damage.

But I mean, really, who wants to win games, anyway?

From one ugly selection to another:

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 5,852

This is one of those commanders that makes me wish I could play a single game with the set before calling it. That's because my pal Ian busted this out one night. On turn three or so, he placed a Nesting GroundsNesting Grounds on the battlefield, and my immediate thought was this: I've made a horrible mistake.

I mean, just check out what I wrote last year:

"There are more Bats in Magic than, say, Otters, yet there still aren't enough to get me jazzed about this one. That's going to be the challenge of this set, since pretty much all the types they've chosen are fairly shallow. Some are bound to excel despite their scarcity, but others, like Bats, probably won't get there."

That set-wide assertion is a little dubious in itself, but let's focus on the bigger blunder: Regarding Zoraline as a Bats-only commander. You'll notice in the tags section that two times as many deckbuilders focus on lifegain than Bats, anyway, so that's strike one.

Strike two is my aforementioned miss with the finality counter interaction. And strike three is the fact that they don't have baseball on Bloomburrow, so we'd best move on.

Now that we've focused on some of my Unders that went Over, let's look at some of my Overs that went Under.

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 1,058

Here's my rationale for the prediction:

"A Squirrel gang is already pretty funny, though this is more than just a meme card. Squirrels naturally go wide, so pooling their strength into a few massive attackers is a great way to beat up your opponents. The card draw is just gravy — or acorn paste, as it were."

Ew, acorn paste. But acorn paste isn't the issue here. It's more of a macro level than a micro one: In other words, Bloomburrow had too many Squirrels.

I suspect Camellia, the SeedmiserCamellia, the Seedmiser and Hazel of the RootbloomHazel of the Rootbloom harvested all the Squirreliest people, leaving the Acorn Gang close, but just short of the mark. That sort of thing is always difficult to predict, but here I wish I'd predicted it.

Let's close with another close one:

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 1,125

I've got to ask...why is Hugs hugging a skeleton? Did he just crush some bones to prove he could? Or has he been standing around squeezing the same poor animal he hugged to death for months until all the skin fell off? I'd rather not ask him, so we'll instead proceed to last year's opinions:

"If this guy invites you to 'hug it out,' that’s a threat. Hugs also threatens to double-activate landfall abilities, not to mention providing a potent mana-sink in the late game. You’d better bet your Badger this is going Over."

Hot take: If Hugs were a Raccoon instead of a Badger, he would've easily gone Over. With all the kindred offerings in red-green in this set, we would've netted the hundred decks needed to reach 1,200, if not more. Plus, I think the Honey Badger meme thing has fallen out of favor.

Recap

Correct Predictions (24)

1. Maha, Its Feathers NightMaha, Its Feathers Night - Over (5,032 decks)
2. Dragonhawk, Fate's TempestDragonhawk, Fate's Tempest - Over (1,986 decks)
3. Lumra, Bellow of the WoodsLumra, Bellow of the Woods - Over (3,791 decks)
4. Kastral, the WindcrestedKastral, the Windcrested - Over (6,821 decks)
5. Vren, the RelentlessVren, the Relentless - Over (8,255 decks)
6. Gev, Scaled ScorchGev, Scaled Scorch - Over (8,098 decks)
7. The Infamous CruelclawThe Infamous Cruelclaw - Over (7,660 decks)
8. Bello, Bard of the BramblesBello, Bard of the Brambles - Over (16,625 decks)
9. Wildsear, Scouring MawWildsear, Scouring Maw - Over (2,717 decks)
10. Alania, Divergent StormAlania, Divergent Storm - Over (7,279 decks)
11. Bria, Riptide RogueBria, Riptide Rogue - Over (7,738 decks)
12. Camellia, the SeedmiserCamellia, the Seedmiser - Over (3,988 decks)
13. Hazel of the RootbloomHazel of the Rootbloom - Over (8,535 decks)
14. Ygra, Eater of AllYgra, Eater of All - Over (14,757 decks)
15. Mabel, Heir to CragflameMabel, Heir to Cragflame - Over (4,961 decks)
16. Wick, the Whorled MindWick, the Whorled Mind - Over (9,291 decks)
17. Baylen, the HaymakerBaylen, the Haymaker - Over (19,608 decks)
18. Helga, Skittish SeerHelga, Skittish Seer - Over (11,615 decks)
19. Mr. FoxgloveMr. Foxglove - Over (4,109 decks)
20. Ms. BumbleflowerMs. Bumbleflower - Over (19,360 decks)
21. Flubs, the FoolFlubs, the Fool - Over (16,103 decks)
22. Zinnia, Valley's VoiceZinnia, Valley's Voice - Over (12,560 decks)
23. Glarb, Calamity's AugurGlarb, Calamity's Augur - Over (14,440 decks)
24. Kitsa, Otterball EliteKitsa, Otterball Elite - Under (577 decks)

Incorrect Predictions (10)

1. Beza, the Bounding SpringBeza, the Bounding Spring - Over Under (1,001 decks)
2. Hugs, Grisly GuardianHugs, Grisly Guardian - Over Under (1,125 decks)
3. Byrke, Long Ear of the LawByrke, Long Ear of the Law - Over Under (1,147 decks)
4. The Odd Acorn GangThe Odd Acorn Gang - Over Under (1,058 decks)
5. Eluge, the Shoreless SeaEluge, the Shoreless Sea - Under Over (9,162 decks)
6. Muerra, Trash TacticianMuerra, Trash Tactician - Under Over (3,608 decks)
7. Finneas, Ace ArcherFinneas, Ace Archer - Under Over (5,510 decks)
8. Zoraline, Cosmos CallerZoraline, Cosmos Caller - Under Over (5,852 decks)
9. Clement, the WorrywortClement, the Worrywort - Under Over (5,696 decks)
10. Arthur, Marigold KnightArthur, Marigold Knight - Under Over (3,411 decks)

My Bloomburrow Correct Prediction Percentage: 71%

My Overall Correct Prediction Percentage: 74%

We've got a nice mountain-peak pattern going here. I mean, I'd prefer a straight line at the top of the page, but nobody gets all the picks right, not even pro gamblers. Not that they allow gambling on Bloomburrow. And now that I've drifted off-topic, I think it's time we wrap things up.

Join me next time for Assassin's Creed, which is — spoiler alert — a complete disaster. Looking forward to it!

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