(Far Traveler | Art by Alix Branwyn)

The Key to the Gate

It's been a year, and it looks like the gate is still open.

We're back to review the commanders of Commander Legends: Battle for Baldur's Gate. You're reading The Over/Under, by the way, the series where we predict how popular new commanders will become after one year of circulation. I predict "Over" or "Under" for each commander, the former meaning I believe the card will end the year with more than 600 decks, the latter meaning the opposite. I also made two Can't-Miss Picks this time around, which are my locks for the set.

In this article, I'm reviewing my predictions from last year. You can refresh your memory by reading my original articles, both Part 1 and Part 2. No worries if you'd rather carry on, though. Like an old musician who's run out of ideas, I'll be quoting myself throughout.

Ready? Let's get reviewing.

Some General Thoughts

I've compiled some complex sounding data for you, which you can find below...

• Total number of commanders: 69
• Total number of decks: 126,684
• Average commander deck count: 1,836
• Most decks: 13,577 (Miirym, Sentinel Wyrm)
• Fewest decks: 65 (Faceless One)

The average commander tripled our line, which is pretty impressive. Furthermore, Miirym, Sentinel Wyrm has become Temur's most popular commander and the 9th-ranked commander overall.

Now let's compare these stats to the original Commander Legends set...

• Total number of commanders: 71
• Total number of decks: 58,209
• Average commander deck count: 820
• Most decks: 2,905 (Rograkh, Son of Rohgahh)
• Fewest decks: 9 (The Prismatic Piper)

As you can see, Commander Legends: Battle for Baldur's Gate blew the doors off its predecessor, despite offering two fewer commanders. They did release two years apart, so EDH inflation needs to be acknowledged, as should the release timing of Commander Legends (November 2020, right smack during the pandemic). Still, it's hard to deny the popularity of Baldur's Gate.

Personally, I think the original had the better design. While Background provided some cool Dungeons and Dragons flavor, it's far more parasitic than Partner, and therefore less interesting. Furthermore, Initiative felt like an attempt to correct Venture, which itself is a flawed mechanic, in my opinion.

My final gripe: I spent hours writing my 600 article, only to log into MTG Arena and find that the digital versions of the legends had nothing to do with the printed ones. If this ever happens again, I might have to resign.

My Solid Selections

Let's start with both of my Can't-Miss selections:

Last year's prediction: Overs for both

Final deck counts: 3,064 and 4,239, respectively

I haven't missed a Can't-Miss Pick since Sevinne, the Chronoclasm back in Commander 2019, a selection which still shames me to this day. However, my rationale for Wilson was hardly based on logic:

"The ultimate Bear in every sense of the word. A two-mana 2/2 with several relevant keywords, plus a Background (might I suggest Raised by Giants?). You can even play the Phish song "Wilson" whenever you cast him, or bellow "Wilson!" forlornly, a la Tom Hanks. Both will annoy your friends, but at least someone's having fun."

You know what? I stand by that advice.

For Raggadragga, my analysis relied on the homophone "human bore" for its creature type, "Human Boar," likening said bore to my high school math teacher. A cheap shot, but in the words of Captain Jack Sparrow, "I couldn't resist, mate."

I'm also glad I got this one:

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 6,340

Perhaps I shouldn't commend myself for choosing a commander chosen by 6,000 people, but I'll do it, anyway. Why? Because, honestly, I was leaning toward going Under. It's a seven-mana commander, for one thing, which is always a red flag. Furthermore, at the time of its printing, Myrkul's ability was pretty much unprecedented (weirdly, they printed Anikthea, Hand of Erebos a year later, and it has a very similar effect). Major embarrassment avoided by picking the Over.

I'm also glad I got this one:

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 1,547

Minthara didn't pull huge numbers, but she still more than doubled the mark, which is respectable for an uncommon. (She wasn't the set's most popular un-commander, though—we'll get to that one later). She reads more like a rare, honestly, especially with the experience counters. Here's what I wrote about her last year:

"Experience counters are hit and miss, as evidenced by the success of Meren of Clan Nel Toth and the obscurity of Kalemne, Disciple of Iroas. It’s all about the payoff, and I believe the payoff here is just enough to appeal. Even a permanent +2/+0 is intriguing, especially with lifelinkers and/or an army of tokens."

I was actually wrong about the lifelinkers in my evaluation; there are hardly any in most Minthara lists. Instead, most players have opted to hoard experience counters via proliferate, especially using Grateful Apparition, Drown in Ichor, and Gulping Scraptrap. A sweet commander, and inexpensive, too. Might have to build around it myself!

Alright, enough positivity. Let's see where I really screwed up.

My Big Mistakes

It's mea culpa time. We'll begin here...

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 2,445

This was my biggest miss of the set, though I'm sure I'm not the only one who's surprised. Here's my rationale from last year...

"This card feels like an inferior version of Lagrella, the Magpie, which doesn't bode well. Lagrella leads a modest 238 decks as I write this article, yet her color identity is far more appealing than Abdel here."

The ironic thing is Lagrella added 873 decks after I wrote this, ending her first year with 1,111. Turns out players love blinking stuff, as evidenced by Abdel's partnership with the Candlekeep Sage and Far Traveler Backgrounds. Lesson learned: No matter how much blink we have, we can always have more.

Speaking of blinking...

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 905

I mean, I think that's what you're doing with this card? Honestly, I've pored over its lists several times, and I still don't really get why it's so popular. Players are pairing it with 29 different Backgrounds, the most popular ones being Master Chef, Cultist of the Absolute, and Far Traveler. Each of these promotes a different strategy, and as I mentioned last year, none of them have much to do with tapping stuff. Maybe people just really like flying elephants? Universes Beyond: Dumbo confirmed.

While I'm complaining about uncommon commanders, I might as well complain about this one:

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 2,011

There are some archetypes that are timeless. No matter how many commanders they have or how many get printed, there's always room for more. We see it with spellslingers, we see it with five-color, and we're seeing it with with tokens, too. When players are playing a 3/3 for three that does nothing outside of combat damage, all for the meager reward of a brace of coneys (shoutout to Sam), you know you've got a timeless archetype.

Another dud:

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 1585

(Side note: I literally just realized that's young Abdel in the picture, and Gorion is the guy who acted as ward for him. Yikes.)

This was just a misfire on my part—or misadventure, as it were. Last year's analysis went like this:

"...With so few Adventure spells as it is, let alone playable ones, I’m skeptical of Gorion, Wise Mentor's applications."

I still think the pool of relevant Adventures is fairly shallow, especially those you'd be happy doubling, but as is so often the case, I failed to properly value the fun factor. I mean, exiling not one, but two Sol Rings with a single Guardian Naga? What could be more satisfying than that?

I'd like to review this next one simply to answer this question: What the heck was I thinking?

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 1560

This is just a nice enabler for pretty much any Dragon typal deck, especially when paired with the Acolyte of Bahamut or Feywild Visitor. I think I was too concerned about five mana being "far too expensive for a 3/4 flyer." Lesson learned: Never pick against a Dragon.

On the other hand, I should've picked against the following peasant...

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 328

Not only does Ellyn offer nearly free card draw in white—she's basically the TMZ of Baldur's Gate. You'd think that would be enough to clear 600, yet she didn't even get to 400. I'm taking this as a sign that, after many years, white finally has enough card draw effects. Well done, Wizards of the Coast.

We'll conclude with what I think is the biggest surprise of the set.

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 553

Sure, it was close. But you'd think a Jund commander with goad would be a shoe-in. Here's how I framed it last year:

"Calling yourself 'Lord of Murder' is no way to make friends."

I didn't know how prophetic that statement would end up being. Despite Bhaal's self-branding problem, I think the real issue here was simply over-saturation. In a set with 68 other commanders to choose from, even a three-color God is going to have problems standing out.

...Or maybe he never got a license to carry all those knives. Your guess is as good as mine.

Recap

Correct Picks (48)

1. Lae'zel, Vlaakith's Champion - Over (1,481 Total Decks)
2. Rasaad yn Bashir - Over (643 Total Decks)
3. Volo, Itinerant Scholar - Over (940 Total Decks)
4. Zellix, Sanity Flayer - Over (1,351 Total Decks)
5. Burakos, Party Leader - Over (3,236 Total Decks)
6. Baeloth Barrityl, Entertainer - Over (2,855 Total Decks)
7. Karlach, Fury of Avernus - Over (1,424 Total Decks)
8. Erinis, Gloom Stalker - Over (854 Total Decks)
9. Jaheira, Friend of the Forest - Over (1,672 Total Decks)
10. Wilson, Refined Grizzly - Over (3,064 Total Decks...Can't-Miss Pick!)
11. Elminster - Over (3,674 Total Decks)
12. Captain N'ghathrod - Over (7,388 Decks)
13. Jon Irenicus, Shattered One - Over (3,617 Decks)
14. Tasha, the Witch Queen - Over (4,108 Decks)
15. Mahadi, Emporium Master - Over (1,040 Decks)
16. Raphael, Fiendish Savior - Over (2,388 Decks)
17. Faldorn, Dread Wolf Herald - Over (3,904 Decks)
18. Minsc & Boo, Timeless Heroes - Over (2,876 Decks)
19. Raggadragga, Goreguts Boss - Over (4,239 Decks...Can't-Miss Pick!)
20. Astarion, the Decadent - Over (813 Decks)
21. Minthara, Merciless Soul - Over (1,547 Decks)
22. Nalia de'Arnise - Over (2,664 Decks)
23. Firkraag, Cunning Instigator - Over (1,852 Decks)
24. Neera, Wild Mage - Over (2,753 Decks)
25. Baba Lysaga, Night Witch - Over (3,052 Decks)
26. Duke Ulder Ravengard - Over (1,278 Decks)
27. Alaundo the Seer - Over (1,829 Decks)
28. Bane, Lord of Darkness - Over (1,376 Decks)
29. Zevlor, Elturel Exile - Over (2,252 Decks)
30. Mazzy, Truesword Paladin - Over (1,426 Decks)
31. Jan Jansen, Chaos Crafter - Over (3,081 Decks)
32. Miirym, Sentinel Wyrm - Over (13,577 Decks)
33. Myrkul, Lord of Bones - Over (6,340 Decks)
34. Nine-Fingers Keene - Over (3,273 Decks)
35. Alora, Merry Thief - Under (405 Total Decks)
36. Imoen, Mystic Trickster - Under (273 Total Decks)
37. Renari, Merchant of Marvels - Under (405 Total Decks)
38. Safana, Calimport Cutthroat - Under (566 Total Decks)
39. Viconia, Drow Apostate - Under (145 Total Decks)
40. Amber Gristle O'Maul - Under (211 Total Decks)
41. Halsin, Emerald Archdruid - Under (210 Total Decks)
42. Skanos Dragonheart - Under (216 Total Decks)
43. Faceless One - Under (65 Total Decks)
44. Oji, the Exquisite Blade - Under (571 Decks)
45. Thrakkus the Butcher - Under (323 Decks)
46. Lozhan, Dragons' Legacy - Under (429 Decks)
47. Kagha, Shadow Archdruid - Under (314 Decks)
48. Korlessa, Scale Singer - Under (265 Decks)

Incorrect Picks (21)

1. Abdel Adrian, Gorion's Ward - Under Over (2,445 Total Decks)
2. Lulu, Loyal Hollyphant - Under Over (905 Total Decks)
3. Gale, Waterdeep Prodigy - Under Over (1,562 Total Decks)
4. Vhal, Candlekeep Researcher - Under Over (797 Total Decks)
5. Sarevok, Deathbringer - Under Over (701 Total Decks)
6. Sivriss, Nightmare Speaker - Under Over (732 Total Decks)
7. Ganax, Astral Hunter - Under Over (1,560 Total Decks)
8. Gut, True Soul Zealot - Under Over (1,331 Total Decks)
9. Wyll, Blade of Frontiers - Under Over (1,967 Total Decks)
10. Durnan of the Yawning Portal Under Over (997 Total Decks)
11. The Council of Four - Under Over (1,697 Decks)
12. Rilsa Rael, Kingpin - Under Over (713 Decks)
13. Cadira, Caller of the Small - Under Over (2,011 Decks)
14. Gluntch, the Bestower - Under Over (2,150 Decks)
15. Commander Liara Portyr - Under Over (706 Decks)
16. Gorion, Wise Mentor - Under Over (1,585 Decks)
17. Dynaheir, Invoker Adept - Under Over (893 Decks)
18. Ellyn Harbreeze, Busybody - Over Under (328 Total Decks)
19. Shadowheart, Dark Justiciar - Over Under (428 Total Decks)
20. Livaan, Cultist of Tiamat - Over Under (387 Total Decks)
21. Bhaal, Lord of Murder - Over Under (553 Decks)

My Baldur's Gate Correct Prediction Percentage: 70%

My Overall Correct Prediction Percentage: 74%

A little below my usual percentage, though with a set this large, you're gonna have some misses. And to think, I told myself I'd never have to review that many commanders at once ever again! Little did I know Tales of Middle Earth would have more than 100.

Something to look forward to, I guess. Until next time!

Read more:

• The Over/Under - Predicting the Popularity of Wilds of Eldraine Commanders
• The Over/Under Part 2- Predicting the Popularity of Lord of the Rings Commanders
• The 600 - A Review of Midnight Hunt and Crimson Vow Commanders