Achilles DavenportAchilles Davenport | Art by Josu Solano

If EDHREC assassinated its writers for poor performance, you wouldn't be reading this article. Instead, you'd be reading my obituary.

Fortunately, they're quite nice around here (and nobody felt like writing my obit). Instead, you'll just have to settle for the latest edition of The Over/Under, the article series where I predict how popular new commanders will become a year after their release.

It's been that long for Assassin's Creed, so it's time to check our work.

Remember, each commander got an "Over" or "Under" prediction based on a line of 1,200 decks, and there was also one "Can't-Miss Pick," which was my surest selection. You can read it all back right here, or you can keep on going, since I'll be referencing the pertinent deets throughout.

(Side note: You might notice that the following figures are lower than the ones currently displayed on the site. That's because I pulled them on ACR's one-year anniversary. Let that be a warning to the commenters...)

Enough preamble. Let's get to the good stuff.

But Was it Good?

Assassin's Creed was on odd duck. Like the much maligned March of the Machine: The Aftermath, it came in weird little small packs rather than the traditional booster, meaning it wasn't draftable, nor was it much in demand. The set offered only 100 cards, with 36 of them being commanders. Speaking of which...

• Total number of commanders: 36
• Total number of commander decks: 61,349
• Average commander deck count: 1,704
• Most decks: Ezio Auditore da FirenzeEzio Auditore da Firenze - 13,382 decks
• Fewest decks: Layla HassanLayla Hassan - 29 decks

That's not a whole lot of commanders. Or decks. Or popularity in general. I mean, if you compare these stats to the prior set, Bloomburrow, it's almost like comparing Pat Mahomes to Justin Fields (sorry Jets fans). For additional context, Bloomburrow had two fewer commanders, yet four times the decks.

An important note: JackdawJackdaw and AdrestiaAdrestia became eligible commanders with the Edge of Eternities update, but since that happened after I made these picks, we're skipping them. Neither came close to going Over, anyway.

The disappointing part for me is, these Universes Beyond duds can be difficult to predict. As with Doctor Who before, it sometimes feels more like I'm gauging the popularity of the IP more than the cards themselves. Of course, I should've foreseen the issue with the distribution method, but alas, as they say, hindsight is 20/20. Wish I could go back in time, Assassin's Creed style.

From a mechanics perspective, cohesion relied mostly on Assassin kindred synergies, which is fun, if a bit obvious. Aside from Etrata, Deadly FugitiveEtrata, Deadly Fugitive and Ramses, Assassin LordRamses, Assassin Lord, there really weren't many payoffs for this creature type (unless you count Morningtide's Scarblade EliteScarblade Elite, which most players probably do not).

In fact, if you check that Assassin page, you'll notice half the Top Commanders are from this very set.

So that's a win, I guess. We have to count them as they come, because there weren't many more for poor Assassin's Creed. It came and went without much fanfare, and even the set's most popular commanders seem to have a shallow footprint on the format. Ezio Auditore da FirenzeEzio Auditore da Firenze is the cream of the crop, yet his popularity feels more like a product of his five-color identity than genuine enthusiasm.

Freerunning is kind of cool, too. Kind of. It somewhat captures the concept from the video games—at least as far as I understand it, which is not fully, since I never played the games.

Although I did watch them being played by my college roommate and official Over/Under Consigliere Shane (shoutout to Shane), who played them while we weren't playing Zombies on Call of Duty: Black Ops. Speaking of which, where's my Universes Beyond set featuring a shotgun-toting JFK?

And hey, while we're speaking of historical figures, Assassin's Creed was Magic's first set to have them. (I mean, technically we've seen mythological figures as far back as AladdinAladdin in Arabian Nights, but we're talking recorded history here.) They almost all went Over, too, which surely means Commander players are a learned and enlightened people with a healthy appreciation of history. But we already knew that. (For a look at possible future historical MTG cards, see Jonathan Zucchetti's sweet article "What If Historical Figures Had Their Own Magic Cards?")

So overall, despite a few shortcomings, Assassin's Creed still offered some decent delights for both fans of the video games and fans of Magic in general. I would add fans of the movie, too, but I'm unsure such people exist.

The Ones I Got Right

We'll begin with a commander that's more Pirate than Assassin:

Last year's prediction: Can't-Miss Pick

Final deck count: 8,811 decks

I guaranteed this one, so fortunately, I didn't embarrass myself (any more than usual). Here's last year's rationale:

"Not only does Kenway create a boatload of free Treasure (literally, if you're playing Skysovereign, Consul FlagshipSkysovereign, Consul Flagship—he also steals your opponents' stuff, giving you plenty of fodder to spend your booty on. Now get your booty down to your LGS and buy this card."

I apologize in retrospect for commenting on your booty. That's inappropriate. But here's what's not inappropriate: Edward's effect on the game. Ramp and card advantage in one is already great, and adding kindred synergies on top pushes him way over the top—and the Over. The only question left: Do his friends call him Eddie Kenny? If not, why not?

From one big Over to another...

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 4,366 decks

I always love me a good Mardu commander, and this one fits the bill—or wanted poster, as it were. Here's what I wanted to post from last year's article:

"There aren't many Assassins in these colors, but a few of my favorites are Big Game HunterBig Game Hunter, Massacre Girl, Known KillerMassacre Girl, Known Killer, and NekrataalNekrataal. Plus, it'll only get better as more Assassins are printed in the coming year."

My prediction of new Assassins never really came true (with the exception of Duskmourn's Unstoppable SlasherUnstoppable Slasher), but I'd also forgotten about the decent crop from a preceding set, Outlaws of Thunder Junction.

I refuse to accept blame, however, since most were hidden beneath the Outlaw blanket, which remains one of the lousiest mechanical implementations they've tried. Still, it all worked out in the end. And this one worked out, too:

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 2,564 decks

This was an unusual commander, not least of all because of the whole historical figure thing. Here's how last year's analysis kicked off:

"I'm sure there's a reason Socrates spelled his own name wrong, and I'm sure fans of Assassin's Creed will cordially explain it to me in the comments."

They did. Not cordially, but they did. Here's the rest:

"Socrates—or Sokrates—is a card draw engine, a Group Hug commander, and a damage preventer, all rolled into one elite teacher."

He's also quite an interesting deck building challenge, if you try winning with him without dealing damage. A few ways to do it: Attack with Psychosis CrawlerPsychosis Crawler, then Sokratic Dialogue it to draw half the cards and ping half that damage (which, in turn, makes the Crawler even bigger). Or get to 13 cards with TriskaidekaphileTriskaidekaphile. Or be boring and cast Approach of the Second SunApproach of the Second Sun.

You'll find all these cards (and more) in Sokrates's average deck.

I've put a lot of thought into this because there's an alt-art Sokrates at a store near my house, and its Sokratic Dialogue is speaking to me through the glass. It's saying, "Buy me." I think I might just.

The Ones I Got So Very Wrong

There were a lot of them. So many, in fact, that I'm having flashbacks to Doctor Who, which was my worst set of all time. Did this one get even uglier? Only one way to find out...

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 29

We begin where we began last year—and it was a rocky start. Honestly, I've read this over several times and still don't recall what I was thinking.

"Though its fortunes are improving, mono-white's lack of easy ramp and card advantage make it EDHREC's least popular color. Layla addresses the latter, however, and with her support of Assassins, I'll give her the benefit of the doubt."

I mean, that's what I was literally thinking. But what was I thinking-thinking, you know? At the time of her printing, Layla was the game's only mono-white Assassin, as several commenters informed me (again, so cordially). Plus, you can already get this effect in mono-white without risking your commander in combat, with Teshar, Ancestor's ApostleTeshar, Ancestor's Apostle.

Now I'm just hurting my own feelings, so I'd best move on.

My prediction: Over

Final deck count: 1,199

You read that right. I missed this pick by one measly deck. Of course, I have no one to blame but myself. If I'd only built a Kassandra deck and posted it online, I wouldn't be in this mess.

...But ew, no, why would I do that? You think I want to play The Spear of LeonidasThe Spear of Leonidas? 300 is the most over-acted, over-directed movie I've ever seen. I'm sure others had the same thought process, which is why she came up short.

While we're on the subject of thought processes, I'm unsure I had one for this commander.

My prediction: Over

Final deck count: 73

"...Achilles is fairly vanilla as a commander, but I think he'll serve as a budget-friendly entry point into what promises to be a popular type."

That's what I wrote last year, and the error of my ways is quite clear—Assassins did not become all that popular. I thought this set might get them there, but alas, as I write this, Assassins are Magic's 15th most popular creature type.

Not a bad rank, but not good enough to pull a commander I myself described as "fairly vanilla" into the hallowed halls of the Over.

...Or perhaps it was just the set itself that was the issue. For instance, you'll notice some striking resemblances between Achilles and Wilds of Eldraine's Obyra, Dreaming DuelistObyra, Dreaming Duelist. Same color identity, pinging effect, and even mana value (counting the freerunning discount). Plus, they have similar-sized bodies, and both offer some form of evasion.

The big difference, of course, is the sets. Wilds was wildly popular, while Assassin's Creed was a bigger box office bomb than the film adaptation, again likely due to its distribution method.

My prediction: Under

Final deck count: 1,203

Now here's another anomaly I wish I could've predicted. I think I had sound reasoning for the Under, at least...

"Believe it or not, Shay here is not the first or second, but sixth card in the game's history to reference bounty counters. Of those six, two others are commanders, and neither of them went Over. The takeaway: This guy's not, either, but if they ever do a Universes Beyond: Star Wars, maybe Boba Fett will."

The Star Wars prediction remains to be seen, and the way the rest of this article went, I'll probably botch that one, too. But as you can see, Shay here just squeaked over the Over, by three measly decks. Wasn't as close as stupid Kassandra, but it still stings.

If only I could've convinced four players not to play it...

Recap

Correct Predictions (18)

1. Leonardo da VinciLeonardo da Vinci - Over (3,467 decks)
2. Sokrates, Athenian TeacherSokrates, Athenian Teacher - Over (2,564 decks)
3. Basim Ibn IshaqBasim Ibn Ishaq - Over (1,535 decks)
4. Shao JunShao Jun - Over (1,215 decks)
5. Cleopatra, Exiled PharaohCleopatra, Exiled Pharaoh - Over (1,647 decks)
6. Ratonhnhaké꞉tonRatonhnhaké꞉ton - Over (1,534 decks)
7. Edward KenwayEdward Kenway - Can't-Miss Pick (8,811 decks)
8. Havi, the All-FatherHavi, the All-Father - Over (1,254 decks)
9. Sigurd, Jarl of RavensthorpeSigurd, Jarl of Ravensthorpe - Over (1,932 decks)
10. Altaïr Ibn-La'AhadAltaïr Ibn-La'Ahad - Over (4,366 decks)
11. Ezio Auditore da FirenzeEzio Auditore da Firenze - Over (13,382 decks)
12. The Capitoline TriadThe Capitoline Triad - Over (2,691 decks)
13. Senu, Keen-Eyed ProtectorSenu, Keen-Eyed Protector - Under (234 decks)
14. Evie FryeEvie Frye + Jacob FryeJacob Frye - Under (439 total decks)
15. Lydia FryeLydia Frye - Under (114 decks)
16. Arno DorianArno Dorian - Under (51 decks)
17. Ezio, Brash NoviceEzio, Brash Novice - Under (64 decks)
18. Shaun & Rebecca, AgentsShaun & Rebecca, Agents - Under (291 decks)

Incorrect Predictions (18)

1. Layla HassanLayla Hassan - Over Under (29 decks)
2. Desmond MilesDesmond Miles - Over Under (129 decks)
3. Roshan, Hidden MagisterRoshan, Hidden Magister - Over Under (78 decks)
4. Surtr, Fiery JötunSurtr, Fiery Jötun - Over Under (357 decks)
5. Haytham KenwayHaytham Kenway - Over Under (521 decks)
6. Achilles DavenportAchilles Davenport - Over Under (73 decks)
7. Adéwalé, Breaker of ChainsAdéwalé, Breaker of Chains - Over Under (174 decks)
8. Ezio, Blade of VengeanceEzio, Blade of Vengeance - Over Under (670 decks)
9. Mary Read and Anne BonnyMary Read and Anne Bonny - Over Under (824 decks)
10. Aveline de GrandpréAveline de Grandpré - Over Under (1,142 decks)
11. Aya of AlexandriaAya of Alexandria - Over Under (98 decks)
12. Bayek of SiwaBayek of Siwa - Over Under (106 decks)
13. Kassandra, Eagle BearerKassandra, Eagle Bearer - Over Under (1,199 decks)
14. Eivor, Wolf-KissedEivor, Wolf-Kissed - Over Under (1,140 decks)
15. Eivor, Battle-ReadyEivor, Battle-Ready - Under Over (1,302 decks)
16. Alexios, Deimos of KosmosAlexios, Deimos of Kosmos - Under Over (5,454 decks)
17. Shay CormacShay Cormac - Under Over (1,203 decks)
18. Arbaaz MirArbaaz Mir - Under Over (1,259 decks)

My Assassin's Creed Correct Prediction Percentage: 50%

My Overall Correct Prediction Percentage: 74%

Still three percentage points better than Doctor Who, my all-time worst performance, although that's not really something to brag about. These Universes Beyond sets can be tough to evaluate.

I'm sure they'll cut down on them in the future, though. Like, surely they'd never be Standard legal, or release more UB sets in a year than originals. That'll never happen!

But hey, even if it does, The Over/Under will be back for another edition. Next in our one-year review tour is Duskmourn, my favorite set of 2024. Here's hoping that this time I can beat a coin flip.

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