Obeka, Splitter of SecondsObeka, Splitter of Seconds | art by Ryan Pancoast

Magic: The Gathering is a game that thrives on unknown information. A big spell you've been holding onto since the start of the game finally coming down when everyone is tapped out is huge. Instant-speed, unknown effects reign supreme. It gives the caster the ability to plan for low interaction points. That's what make cards like Deflecting SwatDeflecting Swat, Deadly RollickDeadly Rollick, and Fierce GuardianshipFierce Guardianship so good. Being able to withhold the ability to interact without having a tell is massive. Cards like Boseiju, Who EnduresBoseiju, Who Endures are super useful because they're low cost, hard to interact with, and can come out of nowhere.

The fabric of Magic surrounds how much an opponent knows about how your deck works. It's a game where you have to give away information when you build up a synergistic board state. Known information and unknown information play a huge role on how players take their turn. In CEDH, it's a known fact that decks that go against the meta, that have a unique gimmick, can win at high-power consistent tables because players don't understand the interaction points of the off-meta deck. It's hard to anticipate what will be threatening. Meta breaking is unknown information, which gives you an edge.

With this in consideration, I want to talk about this effect on certain legendary creatures in Commander. I like to call them "Telegraphed Strategies." There are some commanders that display their strategy so clearly that it makes them easier to understand how to deal with. Well, mostly.

Obeka, Splitter of SecondsObeka, Splitter of Seconds

The Stats

I'll start with the card that sparked this idea in me. I wanted to build this deck so bad when it came out; upkeep triggers getting support is interesting! She reads: "Whenever Obeka, Splitter of SecondsObeka, Splitter of Seconds deals combat damage to a player, you get that many additional upkeep steps after this one." Obeka starts as a 2/5 with menace - evasion built onto her and toughness to protect her in combat. She costs so if things are perfect you can get her out on turn three at the earliest.

The Court card cycle is very good with her. Court of IreCourt of Ire and Court of AmbitionCourt of Ambition are win-cons. Dealing seven damage to a player on your upkeep if you're the monarch over and over for each damage is back breaking. That's 21 damage if you're the monarch at the start of your turn and the two damage that comes built on Obeka. That's insane value. It's even more insane when looking at Court of AmbitionCourt of Ambition, because each player loses six life and discards two card. You could potentially empty everyone's hand and deal 18 damage if you're the monarch at the start of your turn or buff Obeka even a little bit.

The Struggle

It's an incredible strategy. When she first came out, everyone was playing Obeka, Splitter of SecondsObeka, Splitter of Seconds. Not so much now, though. Yeah, people tend to move on in this hobby, but I have a more insidious hypothesis. It's because Obeka's strategy makes her a tough commander to win with.

Hear me out. It takes a turn after Obeka comes out to attack. Typically she doesn't come out until turn four so she attacks on turn five. If you really push yourself with mana rocks you might be able to guarantee her attacking on turn four. Her menace makes her able to evade one blocker, and it's likely on turn five someone only has one blocker. Hopefully you see something like a Ring of ValkasRing of Valkas to have an upkeep trigger for her to utilize the turn she attacks. The curve for the Courts don't jive with her. It's possible to play Court of Ire the turn after she comes out and just get the additional upkeep triggers while you're still the monarch.

Here's the rub: it's clear to players when Obeka is threatening and when she's not. That's mostly open knowledge. She has to build up her board incrementally and then she has to hit someone to get the triggers. She has to connect. People will have blockers by the time she can do some real damage. No one is going to let her connect. Chump blockers or even good creatures will be thrown in front of her to avoid a 6/9 Obeka from connecting with a Court of AmbitionCourt of Ambition out. It's that or lose.

This makes it tough for Obeka players to sneak into a win. Combat damage triggers are especially hard because there are a lot of decisions opponents can make to stop you from getting the trigger. Giving your opponent options is always a bad thing. When we play Magic, we want to trap our opponents into our win. It's hard to do that if they can see everything we're up to. They'll save removal for Obeka during combat or block her. Something like a Deadly RollickDeadly Rollick could blow out any Obeka player.

There are some workarounds, like going with an evasion Voltron strategy to guarantee hits - like with Aqueous FormAqueous Form, for example. But then that takes away from the upkeep triggers we could put out, but it might be worth it.

Storm, Force of NatureStorm, Force of Nature

The Stats

This commander has a similar struggle. It's an incredible strategy. She has flying and vigilance - so good evasion and blocking capability - and costs . She reads: "Whenever Storm deals combat damage to a player, the next instant or sorcery spell you cast this turn has storm. (When you cast it, copy it for each spell cast before it this turn. You may choose new targets for the copies.)"

With Storm on board and five potential mana, you can cast a few cantrips before going to combat, like a PonderPonder and BrainstormBrainstorm. The likelihood someone has a flying blocker is low, but the upper bound of what she can do is insane. Her evasion is better than Obeka's because flying is harder to deal with than menace; some decks just don't run a ton of flyers. So after damage, casting a CultivateCultivate and getting three lands on board and three in hand is really good for the next turn. Later on, after a few Talismans are played, she could deal combat damage and cast a Nexus of FateNexus of Fate and get three extra turns.

The Struggle

Storm is different than Obeka in this regard because the spell that the player is building up to is the unknown information. The buildup to that spell, however, is the open knowledge. Players can see a storm count of four and understand that no matter what the spell is after combat, Storm has to be blocked or removed. She's an interesting and powerful card, so players will start to catch on. She can't be allowed to stay on board and, especially, connect on that turn.

Every time she's recast, it gives every opponent a turn circle to prepare, to look for removal. The ceiling of her ability is high but if she can't stick on board, the deck is likely filled with value that probably costs very little or too much to cast. It becomes this on-sight commander removal situation that we see with decks like Kaalia of the VastKaalia of the Vast. We know that Kaalia has to be removed or she'll have the possibility to one-shot a player. Storm's value engine is so good, it can accrue so much in a turn, making it impossible to surmount, so she has to be removed.

Some workarounds to this could be playing combat trick cards to build up the storm count before damage, dealing a little more commander damage, while giving a lower interaction point on opponents, but if they have the removal, they'll likely play it then anyway.

Anikthea, Hand of ErebosAnikthea, Hand of Erebos

It has to be noted that this observation about telegraphed strategy doesn't neatly say that if you reveal information, you'll get removed out of the game. Anikthea is an exception. She's even more telegraphed in strategy, but still is often very threatening to play against and can consistently come back.

The Stats

She a 4/4 with menace that costs . She has evasion, which is huge for combat triggers. The thing is that Anikthea is a little more to cast than the other commanders I've mentioned. She's in green so she can likely get out by turn three. She reads: "Other enchantment creatures you control have menace. Whenever Anikthea enters the battlefield or attacks, exile up to one target non-Aura enchantment card from your graveyard. Create a token that's a copy of that card, except it's a 3/3 black Zombie creature in addition to its other types."

She has a much more telegraphed effect than the other two commanders I've mentioned. Before she's cast, we can see what's in the graveyard for her to reanimate. It might be advantageous to stop her. And she gets her trigger for entering and attacking. If you give her haste you can do it twice in a turn, which is immediately better than the other commander effects I've mentioned, but it's value the turn you cast her. And it's not a damage trigger. Anikthea just has to attack to get the effect. She doesn't have to survive or connect.

The Success

Anikthea, Hand of ErebosAnikthea, Hand of Erebos can shoot out a ton of value on a turn, so opponents will have the counter her when she's cast. Creature spells are notoriously harder to counter in decks that splash in counter magic, often needing . Obviously a well timed board wipe will set her back, but even removing the enchantments she has on board isn't great because she can reanimate them. A Doubling SeasonDoubling Season in grave and a Mondrak, Glory DominusMondrak, Glory Dominus or Anointed ProcessionAnointed Procession on board with an Anikthea coming onto the battlefield is going to make way more tokens than you can handle. And it will only grow exponentially.

Conclusion

Even though Anikthea shows her capability in her grave, she's able to wriggle a way to wins while Storm or Obeka struggle to do this. I'll put this up to you as a community to help me better understand this: What are your experiences with these decks? I try to explore what makes some of these decks successful and others not, but I need more data, more experience. Send me your thoughts @strixhavendropout at Blue Sky.