The Over/Under - Predicting the Popularity of Multicolor Avatar Commanders

by
Kyle Massa
Kyle Massa
The Over/Under - Predicting the Popularity of Multicolor Avatar Commanders

Aang, Swift SaviorAang, Swift Savior | Art by Claudiu-Antoniu Magherusan

Unlike the live-action film adaptation, we've got our Avatar sequel. Yes, we're back with another Over/Under, this time examining the multicolor legends of the set. Here's hoping this article is better than the movie.

Some hasty reminders. The line is 1,200 decks. Each new commander gets an "Over" or "Under" that line, based on how many decks I predict it will lead by next year. My "Can't-Miss Pick" is the one with the most hubris. We'll review all these picks in 2026. And if you missed part one with the monocolored legends, you can read it right here.

Ready to bend it like not Beckham, because I'm pretty sure soccer doesn't exist in this world? Let's do it!

Aang, Swift SaviorAang, Swift Savior

Aang, Swift Savior

Spell QuellerSpell Queller used to be quite the big deal in Standard, and even Modern, I think, for a brief time. It never reached the same heights in Commander, however, with a respectable, if not amazing, total of 8,673 decks.

Aang reminds me of the Queller on the front, with the possibility of a major permanent pump to your team on the back. Borderline, but since he's the main character of the series—and therefore, the set—tie goes to the Airbender.

My prediction: Over

Katara, Water Tribe's HopeKatara, Water Tribe's Hope

Katara, Water Tribe's Hope

Think of Katara like Mirror EntityMirror Entity, only she spots you a second body to discount her activation. Seems like an excellent reward for going wide, not to mention playing Allies—both of which are plenty popular.

My prediction: Over

Sokka, Lateral StrategistSokka, Lateral Strategist

Sokka, Lateral Strategist

This is a decent little value engine for any go-wide deck, but too mid to go anywhere but Under.

My prediction: Under

Azula, Cunning UsurperAzula, Cunning Usurper

Azula, Cunning Usurper

If Azula is just really mean in the show, kudos to the designers on capturing that vibe. Plus, Dimir steal-your-stuff is a tried-and-true archetype. Just ask Captain N'ghathrodCaptain N'ghathrod, The Scarab GodThe Scarab God, or Xanathar, Guild KingpinXanathar, Guild Kingpin.

My prediction: Over

Hama, the BloodbenderHama, the Bloodbender

Hama, the Bloodbender

A bomb in Draft, but this website isn't called DraftREC.

My prediction: Under

Lo and Li, Royal AdvisorsLo and Li, Royal Advisors

Lo and Li, Royal Advisors

As if Persistent PetitionersPersistent Petitioners isn't annoying enough.

My prediction: Over

Katara, Seeking RevengeKatara, Seeking Revenge

Katara, Seeking Revenge

Some gorgeous artwork here by Yoshioka, but the rest is rather drab. Use it as your wallpaper—not your commander.

My prediction: Under

Fire Lord OzaiFire Lord Ozai

Fire Lord Ozai

Stealing your friends' stuff is a time-honored tradition in Commander, and it's even more fun to literally set it on fire. Ozai lets you do both, even if you have to squint really hard to see him in this artwork.

My prediction: Over

Ozai, the Phoenix KingOzai, the Phoenix King

Ozai, the Phoenix King

This is one unique commander. In fact, I can’t think of any others that have ever cared about unspent mana. (This is the part where the commenters clown on me with, like, 10 examples.) He’s clearly a firebending build-around, and also greatly improves the many ritual-style spells of both black and red, e.g., Seething SongSeething Song and Dark RitualDark Ritual.

My only question is this: Does "Phoenix King" mean he’s a literal Phoenix, or is it more metaphorical? Like, is Ozai the king of Phoenix, Arizona in the way that Stallone is the Tulsa King? Yeah, checks out.

My prediction: Over

Zhao, Ruthless AdmiralZhao, Ruthless Admiral

Zhao, Ruthless Admiral

If you've had the misfortune of playing with or against Korvold, Fae-Cursed KingKorvold, Fae-Cursed King, you know that sacrifice trigger is gonna happen. A lot. Still, Zhao is best on a wide board, yet also asks you to sacrifice fodder, putting him a bit at odds with himself.

My prediction: Under

Zuko, ConflictedZuko, Conflicted

Zuko, Conflicted

"At the beginning of your first main phase," eh? Do kids these days even know what an upkeep is?

Pining for the good ol' days aside, I am, in a word, conflicted. On one hand, Zuko is a super-sweet value engine with ramp and card advantage built-in. On the other, he's strikingly similar to Sol'Kanar the TaintedSol'Kanar the Tainted, a commander I awarded a vociferous Over and who rewarded me with a vociferous Under. And I can barely spell "vociferous," so I think it's time we get to the point.

My prediction: Under

Zuko, Seeking HonorZuko, Seeking Honor

Zuko, Seeking Honor

How about we seek some better rules text instead?

My prediction: Under

Bumi, UnleashedBumi, Unleashed

Bumi, Unleashed

Like J.K. Simmons, this old dude is inexplicably jacked. He's also going to be popular, because everybody likes an extra combat, even if only land creatures participate. You'll have no shortage of those anyway, what with all the earthbending going on in this set.

My prediction: Over

Toph, Greatest EarthbenderToph, Greatest Earthbender

Toph, Greatest Earthbender

Tough to quibble with the claim of "greatest" when Toph absolutely bashes, and gets better the more your opponents try to stop her.

My prediction: Greatest—I mean, Over

Toph, Hardheaded TeacherToph, Hardheaded Teacher

Toph, Hardheaded Teacher

Casting spells is literally the baseline point of the whole game, so getting a free land creature every time you do it is great, and gets even greater with the whole Lesson bonus.

And if you've noticed me overusing the adjective "great," it's because I'm already beginning to doubt the whole "greatest" claim of our previous Toph.

My prediction: Over

Uncle IrohUncle Iroh

Uncle Iroh

Is Uncle Iroh playing Magic in the above image? If so, may I please be paired against him? He doesn't seem very good and I need some wins, here.

My prediction: Under

Aang, A Lot to LearnAang, A Lot to Learn

Aang, A Lot to Learn

Aptly named.

My prediction: Way Under

Suki, Kyoshi WarriorSuki, Kyoshi Warrior

Suki, Kyoshi Warrior

Many players have compared Suki to Adeline, Resplendent CatharAdeline, Resplendent Cathar, and I can't tell if they're hyperbolizing or not (spellcheck says that's a real word). It's not far off, honestly, what with the star power and the free 1/1s per attack.

Problem is, Suki costs a full mana more, and she only triggers when she attacks, not any creature. I think that's a deal-breaker.

My prediction: Under

Hei Bai, Spirit of BalanceHei Bai, Spirit of Balance

Hei Bai, Spirit of Balance

Loving the freaky artwork here by Tyler Smith, although the rest leaves a little to be desired. Not a lot—just enough to leave me skeptical. Ultimately this is just dumping counters everywhere, which seems somewhat lackluster for a commander.

My prediction: Under

Professor Zei, AnthropologistProfessor Zei, Anthropologist

Professor Zei, Anthropologist

Even worse than the last. Not even a loot, but a rummage?

My prediction: Under

Sokka, Bold BoomerangerSokka, Bold Boomeranger

Sokka, Bold Boomeranger

The set provides a clever little combo with Sokka and his Trusty BoomerangTrusty Boomerang. Otherwise, I'm not seeing much incentive to run this dude.

My prediction: Under

Long Feng, Grand SecretariatLong Feng, Grand Secretariat

Long Feng, Grand Secretariat

If you think of this like The Gitrog MonsterThe Gitrog Monster that provides counters instead of cards, you can see why Long Feng became such a grand secretariat (P.S.: I was under the impression Secretariat was only a horse).

Gitrog itself would be great in this deck, along with ScapeshiftScapeshift, Zuran OrbZuran Orb, and any number of lands-matter staples. And don't forget: You can also run Long Feng as an Aristocrats commander.

My prediction: Over

Iroh, Tea MasterIroh, Tea Master

Iroh, Tea Master

Haven't played against this in Commander just yet, but he did pummel me in Draft yesterday. Giving away permanents is less costly than it might seem, especially if they're aggressively bad, e.g., Rust ElementalRust Elemental, Grid MonitorGrid Monitor, and my personal favorite, Nine LivesNine Lives.

In fact, if you donate that last one and then cast Austere CommandAustere Command, that's an insta-kill. You're welcome.

My prediction: Over

Jet, Freedom FighterJet, Freedom Fighter

Jet, Freedom Fighter

I also got beaten by this in Draft (different game, and no, I haven't been doing well, thanks for asking), although I think it'll be much worse in Commander. Board presence matters way less, so the damage and the counters really won't do much for you, unless you're playing me, in which case, you'll probably defeat me.

Again, you're welcome.

My prediction: Under

Guru PathikGuru Pathik

Guru Pathik

Most Shrine decks want to be five-color, not two, so that’s already a strike against Pathik. And while Final Fantasy introduced several impactful new Saga creatures, I doubt they'll be enough to save this Guru from bombing worse than The Love Guru.

My prediction: Under

The Lion-TurtleThe Lion-Turtle

The Lion-Turtle

Uro? Is that you?

Maybe not, but it's pretty darn close. And if you're almost as good as a card that was banned in pretty much every format except Commander, you must be pretty darn powerful.

My prediction: Over

Fire Lord AzulaFire Lord Azula

Fire Lord Azula

Do you like firebending? Then you're going to love Azula. Note that it's a spell, any spell, meaning you can flash in creatures at a two-mana discount and clone them for free.

Might be the best commander in the whole set—which is really saying something, since there are so damn many.

My prediction: Over

Mai and ZukoMai and Zuko

Mai and Zuko

If you're looking for ways to flash in creatures for Azula, I found one. But even on their own, Mai and Zuko here make a potent commander, either built around Allies, artifacts, or a little of both.

And they even brought tea. How thoughtful!

My prediction: Over

Toph, the First MetalbenderToph, the First Metalbender

Toph, the First Metalbender

Toph dropped early in spoiler season and had everyone talking, for good reason. She does some absolutely whacky stuff, like turning your Ichor WellspringIchor Wellspring into a repeatable card advantage engine, or netting landfall triggers on all your zero-mana artifacts.

That Terra EternalTerra Eternal that's been sitting in my trade binder for a decade is looking mighty fine right about now.

My prediction: Over

Aang and KataraAang and Katara

Aang and Katara

This pair-up feels a lot mopier than the rest, which is odd, considering every other treatment of Aang and Katara is busted. Sure, you can go very wide very fast, but many other Bant commanders do so at a much better rate.

These two might look like Krenko, Mob BossKrenko, Mob Boss for Allies, but as mobsters go, they're more like Fredo.

My prediction: Under

Aang, at the CrossroadsAang, at the Crossroads

Aang, at the Crossroads

Look, this card has so much text they couldn't fit it all on one side. If you enjoy winning, I recommend running this commander.

My prediction: Over

Katara, the FearlessKatara, the Fearless

Katara, the Fearless

The only fear I have is a fear of Allies whenever Katara's on the battlefield. And if you somehow haven't noticed by now, pretty much every creature in this set is an Ally—unless it's a Badger Mole.

My prediction: Over

Fire Lord ZukoFire Lord Zuko

Fire Lord Zuko

Seems like every new mechanic interacts with the exile zone these days, so it's no surprise to see Zuko as one of the most talked-about commanders from the set so far. You can be mean and degenerate with Hellkite ChargerHellkite Charger for infinite combats, or you can be like me and run a mopey suspend-themed deck.

Either way, Zuko's going to have a lot of fans.

My prediction: Over (Can't-Miss Pick!)

Iroh, Grand LotusIroh, Grand Lotus

Iroh, Grand Lotus

Whether you're running Lessons or not, Iroh is an outstanding Spellslinger commander. But you really do want to run Lessons, because then you can cast them for free from your graveyard with Goblin ElectromancerGoblin Electromancer and the like. Your playgroup will soon give this Lotus a "kill on sight" designation.

My prediction: Over

Sokka and SukiSokka and Suki

Sokka and Suki

I never get tired of auto-equipping Colossus HammerColossus Hammer, and I doubt other players do, either. Also pretty sweet with SunforgerSunforger or any creature with the word "Ally" on it.

My prediction: Over

Sokka, Tenacious TacticianSokka, Tenacious Tactician

Sokka, Tenacious Tactician

Tenacious indeed. Perhaps not as combo-licious as Jeskai AscendancyJeskai Ascendancy, but pretty darn close, and even better since you'll cast him every game. An outstanding commander here.

My prediction: Over

Avatar AangAvatar Aang

Avatar Aang

This card is, to borrow a phrase from Brick Tamland, fantastic. And hey, that's fitting for the namesake of the whole show.

Aang's front side is solid already, since you draw every time he attacks at a bare minimum. From there, just pack your deck with every -bending card from the set and hope for the best. I suspect Aang will flip about as often as you meld (which is to say, pretty much never), but even so, it'll be thrilling when it works.

My prediction: Over

Hei Bai, Forest GuardianHei Bai, Forest Guardian

Hei Bai, Forest Guardian

I don't think this will overtake Go-Shintai of Life's OriginGo-Shintai of Life's Origin as the go-to five-color Shrines commander, but it certainly might come close. Also, why is it so much creepier in the Orzhov version?

My prediction: Over

Recap

Over

  1. Aang, Swift SaviorAang, Swift Savior
  2. Katara, Water Tribe's HopeKatara, Water Tribe's Hope
  3. Azula, Cunning UsurperAzula, Cunning Usurper
  4. Lo and Li, Royal AdvisorsLo and Li, Royal Advisors
  5. Fire Lord OzaiFire Lord Ozai
  6. Ozai, the Phoenix KingOzai, the Phoenix King
  7. Bumi, UnleashedBumi, Unleashed
  8. Toph, Greatest EarthbenderToph, Greatest Earthbender
  9. Toph, Hardheaded TeacherToph, Hardheaded Teacher
  10. Long Feng, Grand SecretariatLong Feng, Grand Secretariat
  11. Iroh, Tea MasterIroh, Tea Master
  12. The Lion-TurtleThe Lion-Turtle
  13. Fire Lord AzulaFire Lord Azula
  14. Mai and ZukoMai and Zuko
  15. Toph, the First MetalbenderToph, the First Metalbender
  16. Aang, at the CrossroadsAang, at the Crossroads
  17. Katara, the FearlessKatara, the Fearless
  18. Fire Lord ZukoFire Lord Zuko (Can't-Miss Pick)
  19. Iroh, Grand LotusIroh, Grand Lotus
  20. Sokka and SukiSokka and Suki
  21. Sokka, Tenacious TacticianSokka, Tenacious Tactician
  22. Avatar AangAvatar Aang
  23. Hei Bai, Forest GuardianHei Bai, Forest Guardian

Under

  1. Sokka, Lateral StrategistSokka, Lateral Strategist
  2. Hama, the BloodbenderHama, the Bloodbender
  3. Katara, Seeking RevengeKatara, Seeking Revenge
  4. Zhao, Ruthless AdmiralZhao, Ruthless Admiral
  5. Zuko, ConflictedZuko, Conflicted
  6. Zuko, Seeking HonorZuko, Seeking Honor
  7. Uncle IrohUncle Iroh
  8. Aang, A Lot to LearnAang, A Lot to Learn
  9. Suki, Kyoshi WarriorSuki, Kyoshi Warrior
  10. Hei Bai, Spirit of BalanceHei Bai, Spirit of Balance
  11. Professor Zei, AnthropologistProfessor Zei, Anthropologist
  12. Sokka, Bold BoomerangerSokka, Bold Boomeranger
  13. Jet, Freedom FighterJet, Freedom Fighter
  14. Guru PathikGuru Pathik
  15. Aang and KataraAang and Katara

Been a fun set so far. Looking forward to getting slapped around by these commanders.

Kyle Massa

Kyle Massa


Kyle A. Massa is a writer and avid Magic player living somewhere in upstate New York with his wife, their daughter, and three wild animals. His current favorite card is Wan Shi Tong, Librarian. You can find him on Substack at www.substack.com/@wildcardmtg.

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