Amazing Spider-ManAmazing Spider-Man | Art by Thanh Tuấn

And here I thought there wouldn't be a Spider-Pig. I've never been so glad to be wrong.

But let's hope I don't get anything else wrong, because you're reading The Over/Under, the series where we use our Spidey Senses to predict how popular new commanders will become (especially if they're from Queens). Each gets an "Over" or an "Under" guess relative to a line of 1,200 decks.

There's also one Can't-Miss Pick in each set, which is my most confident selection. We'll reconvene in a year to see where I went wrong. And right!

Quick disclaimer about my familiarity with the Marvel's Spider-Man source material: I've never read the comics, but I've seen all the movies. Well, except for The Amazing Spider-Man 2, because I didn't quite understand Paul Giamatti as an anthropomorphic rhinoceros. I also haven't seen most of the Sony spinoff movies; but let's be honest, who has?

With all that out of the way, let's get our web shooters ready. It's about to get amazing up in here.

Anti-Venom, Horrifying HealerAnti-Venom, Horrifying Healer

Since white comes first in the sacred WUBRG order, we usually start with some clunky commanders. Not so, here. Despite the prohibitive mana cost, this Symbiote absolutely rips. I mean, a free creature from the graveyard is great, and a blast from Dawnsire, Sunstar DreadnoughtDawnsire, Sunstar Dreadnought for 100 counters is even better.

Best of all: the MTG Arena version of this card is called "Verilax," and that really, really sounds like a laxative.

My prediction: Over

Deck tech here.

Arachne, Psionic WeaverArachne, Psionic Weaver

A minor inconvenience does not a popular commander make.

My prediction: Under

Aunt MayAunt May

You can tell they aren't adapting the MCU, because that is definitely not Marisa Tomei. As a Soul WardenSoul Warden with minor Spider upside from the command zone, she's also not particularly interesting as a commander, either.

My prediction: Under

Deck tech here.

Flash Thompson, Spider-FanFlash Thompson, Spider-Fan

I like that we've renamed tapping into heckling, but other than that, there's little to like about this spider-fan.

My prediction: Under

MJ, Rising StarMJ, Rising Star

Look, we all know Mary Jane is very talented, but I don't even get the flavor here, let alone a semblance of excitement. But hey, I know we're all still fans of Secret Hospital.

My prediction: Under

Silver Sable, Mercenary LeaderSilver Sable, Mercenary Leader

Since its introduction in Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty, modified has never been much of a player in EDH, and being mono-white doesn't help.

My prediction: Under

Spectacular Spider-ManSpectacular Spider-Man

This card has a lot of keywords, but flash isn't surprising anyone when it's face up in the command zone, and the rest is so mediocre I'm beginning to think this is Spider-Man 3 levels of bad.

My prediction: Under

Spider-Man, Peter ParkerSpider-Man, Peter Parker

This seems super annoying to play against, since any instant-speed lifegain now becomes a protection spell. Spider-Man, Peter ParkerSpider-Man, Peter Parker makes passive lifegain a heck of a lot better — pretty much any lifegain, for that matter.

Reminds me of Heliod, Sun-CrownedHeliod, Sun-Crowned, a card I pegged as an Under, even though it went Over. Let's not make the same mistake again, shall we?

My prediction: Over

Spider-Man, Web-SlingerSpider-Man, Web-Slinger

I appreciate this iteration of Spider-Man and his work ethic, but come on now.

My prediction: Under

Spider-UKSpider-UK

This is what happened after Spider-Man attended his first Rolling Stones concert. Might've improved his taste in music, but it didn't do much for him mechanically.

My prediction: Under

Starling, Aerial AllyStarling, Aerial Ally

I'm unsure I'd draft this card from a booster pack, let alone run it as my commander. Also, why is she not an Ally?

My prediction: Under

Beetle, Legacy CriminalBeetle, Legacy Criminal

Let this be a lesson to anyone who's bored with their humdrum existence: Crime doesn't make you a cooler person — or a better commander, for that matter.

My prediction: Under

Chameleon, Master of DisguiseChameleon, Master of Disguise

This dude intrigues me as a budget alternative to Sakashima of a Thousand FacesSakashima of a Thousand Faces. Problem is, Chameleon here lacks partner. And if he's still calling himself "Chameleon" after stealing identities, doesn't that give away the disguise?

My prediction: Under

Doc Ock, Sinister ScientistDoc Ock, Sinister Scientist

This feels like a common-power level commander because it is, in fact, a common.

My prediction: Under

Hydro-Man, Fluid FelonHydro-Man, Fluid Felon

Since you're always outnumbered by your opponents in Commander, Hydro-Man is often more fluid than felon. And hey, that's not a bad thing, considering he's pretty much immune to sorcery-speed removal as a land.

Now here's a question for him: Has he ever flowed through a Brita filter? If so, what was the experience like?

My predictions: "Yes" and "Weird"...and also Over

Deck tech here.

Lady Octopus, Inspired InventorLady Octopus, Inspired Inventor

Reminder: Lady Octopus costs only one mana. Another reminder: Everyone draws a card every turn. If you can draw additional ones — which is easiest in mono-blue — you get a free accelerant that accelerates further with proliferate and instant-speed draw.

In other words, this card is outstanding.

My prediction: Over

Deck tech here.

Lyla, Holographic AssistantLyla, Holographic Assistant

If the future of AI is this mediocre, we're really in trouble.

My prediction: Under

Deck tech here.

Madame Web, ClairvoyantMadame Web, Clairvoyant

If this card produces even a 10th of the memes the Madame Web movie did, it'll be a wild success. Otherwise, I see no path to popularity.

My prediction: Under

Mysterio, Master of IllusionMysterio, Master of Illusion

We're going to see some Villain (and for that matter, Hero) payoffs throughout this set, and I’m skeptical of pretty much all of them. Spider-Man has been polarizing within the MTG community, which is why I doubt two creature types almost exclusive to it will become popular.

My prediction: Under

Spider-Byte, Web WardenSpider-Byte, Web Warden

If you asked for Man-o'-WarMan-o'-War as your commander, you've got it. Problem is, nobody asked for it.

My prediction: Under

Spider-Man 2099, Miguel O'HaraSpider-Man 2099, Miguel O'Hara

If Magic's still around in 2099, I hope we're getting cooler commanders than this.

My prediction: Under

Agent VenomAgent Venom

I find this card so boring I can't even think of a good zinger.

My prediction: Under

Black Cat, Cunning ThiefBlack Cat, Cunning Thief

Gonti, Canny AcquisitorGonti, Canny Acquisitor, Captain N'ghathrodCaptain N'ghathrod, Xanathar, Guild KingpinXanathar, Guild Kingpin...they keep printing commanders like this, and people keep playing them. Weird cat people should be especially pleased.

My prediction: Over

Grendel, Spawn of KnullGrendel, Spawn of Knull

Hey, I thought this was a Spider-Man set, not a Beowulf set! Either way, there's no way a Hill GiantHill Giant with two keywords is going Over.

My prediction: Under

Gwenom, RemorselessGwenom, Remorseless

If you like Bolas's CitadelBolas's Citadel — which you probably do, since it is, in fact, a Game Changer — then you're going to love Gwenom, and her portmanteau name.

My prediction: Over (Can't Miss Pick)

Deck tech here.

Morlun, Devourer of SpidersMorlun, Devourer of Spiders

You know that urban legend about how you might eat spiders in your sleep without realizing it? Morlun lives it. That would be a bigger deal if he was, you know, actually powerful.

My prediction: Under

Scorpion, Seething StrikerScorpion, Seething Striker

This card is deeply unimpressive, which at least works from a flavor perspective, since Scorpion seems like a B-list Spider-Man villain.

My prediction: Under

Spider-Man NoirSpider-Man Noir

Lousy stats and a payoff that only marginally makes up for them...but at least he's got style. And I hear he's voiced by Nicolas Cage in Into the Spider-Verse, which draws us one step closer to my dream of playing Nic as my commander.

Until that day, I refuse to settle for this.

My prediction: Under

Deck tech here.

Swarm, Being of BeesSwarm, Being of Bees

Speaking of Nicolas Cage...oh no, not the bees! They're in my eyes! My eyes! Ahhhh!

My prediction: Under

Tombstone, Career CriminalTombstone, Career Criminal

See my earlier comments about Villains and criminality and all that.

My prediction: Under

Venom, Eddie BrockVenom, Eddie Brock

For a character as cool as Venom, this is quite a disappointing card. It would actually be pretty powerful if they'd chosen a more plentiful creature type, but as it is, it's just too difficult to support.

Love the art, though.

My prediction: Under

Venom, Evil UnleashedVenom, Evil Unleashed

The stats of Scream PuffScream Puff without the delightful pun.

My prediction: Under

Electro, Assaulting BatteryElectro, Assaulting Battery

I have a Squee, the ImmortalSquee, the Immortal storm deck that will welcome this Villain with open Gobliny arms. He's not bad on his own, either, since he does a decent impression of Birgi, God of StorytellingBirgi, God of Storytelling at a (hopefully) lower price tag.

I'm intrigued. And electrified. But hopefully not assaulted. Or battered.

My prediction: Over

Deck tech here.

Ghost-Spider, Gwen StacyGhost-Spider, Gwen Stacy

Gwen doesn't ask much of you to really go off. Furthermore, we've already seen mono-red go-wide strategies succeed, from Krenko, Mob BossKrenko, Mob Boss and Purphoros, God of the ForgePurphoros, God of the Forge.

And Stan Lee help your opponents if you draw any multiple combat effects.

My prediction: Over

Deck tech here.

Hobgoblin, Mantled MarauderHobgoblin, Mantled Marauder

I'm sure you can combo off with wheel effects using this guy. But the question is, do you really want to? At one base power, you're doing a whole lot of work to elevate this from bad to slightly less bad.

My prediction: Under

J. Jonah JamesonJ. Jonah Jameson

Shoutout to my lifelong pal Jeremy, who runs a commander strikingly similar to Jameson here: Nelly Borca, Impulsive AccuserNelly Borca, Impulsive Accuser. I mean, just compare their pointing technique. Also, both suspect creatures at will, which is a lot more annoying than it looks (I know this from experience).

And with the amount of Treasure Triple J is throwing out, the Bugle had better watch its budget.

My prediction: Over

Deck tech here.

Molten Man, Inferno IncarnateMolten Man, Inferno Incarnate

If you're like me and you're on the hunt for a mono-red Valakut, the Molten PinnacleValakut, the Molten Pinnacle commander, this is your guy. If you're like most other players, you'd probably still prefer Hydro-Man.

My prediction: Under

Shocker, UnshakableShocker, Unshakable

Shocker is a fan of the deep, deep V-neck. I'm not a fan of him.

My prediction: Under

Spider-Gwen, Free SpiritSpider-Gwen, Free Spirit

If this commander goes Over, I will literally attempt to swing from a skyscraper on a spider-silk thread.

My prediction: Under

Spider-PunkSpider-Punk

Trivia time! What is the maximum number of Spiders eligible for a mono-red EDH deck?

The answer? A measly dozen — and that includes squishable candidates like Needlepeak SpiderNeedlepeak Spider. Yes, I know, changelings. Yet still, Spider-PunkSpider-Punkwould be promising in, say, green.

In mono-red, he just doesn't cast a wide enough web.

My prediction: Under

Deck tech here.

Spinneret and SpiderlingSpinneret and Spiderling

Same problem as above. This card would be far more interesting in Goblins or Pirates or something. With Spiders, it's just not worth jumping through such narrow hoops to enable.

My prediction: Under

Stegron the Dinosaur ManStegron the Dinosaur Man

This guy seems super annoying, and not in a productive way — just a straight-up annoying way. I mean, anyone who elongates the letter S deserves an Under, as a matter of principle.

My prediction: A Principled Under

The Mary JanesThe Mary Janes

If I told you you could cast your commander fairly reliably for one mana every time, even with commander tax, you'd be interested. If I told you the payoff was a 3/3 with menace, you wouldn't be.

My prediction: Under

Ezekiel Sims, Spider-TotemEzekiel Sims, Spider-Totem

If this guy was my mentor, all I'd learn is that I need a better mentor.

My prediction: Under

Lizard, Connors's CurseLizard, Connors's Curse

This is actually somewhat interesting as targeted mono-green removal, since nowhere does the Lizard Formula ability specify "until end of turn." You can use that to power up your Saprolings, for instance, or better yet, downgrade an opposing commander.

I'm unsure how appealing that is, but since it's unique, I'll give this smart Lizard the benefit of the doubt.

My prediction: Over

Prowler, Misguided MentorProwler, Misguided Mentor

Just another commander punished by the desire to work as many characters from the comics into each and every booster pack.

In fact, if this commander goes over, I will literally eat a booster pack. After I'm done swinging from the web.

My prediction: Under (And for safety reasons, please don't let it go Over.)

Sandman, Shifting ScoundrelSandman, Shifting Scoundrel

Kind of cool that you can let your commander go to the graveyard, although five mana's a lot for Sandman's return and an extra land, both tapped. That evasion ability is better than it might look, yet still not good enough to make me like this sand any better than Anakin Skywalker would.

And now we're mixing IPs.

My prediction: Under

Deck tech here.

Spider-Ham, Peter PorkerSpider-Ham, Peter Porker

At first I thought these listed types were barnyard animals. Nope. Then, I theorized these types aligned with the 10 from last year's Bloomburrow. Nah. Then the Spider-Pig song from The Simpsons entered my brain, and it's been stuck in there ever since.

Perhaps someone can enlighten me on the theme for that absurd list of animals. Until then, I'll suggest this seems silly enough to inspire even the grumpiest of deckbuilders.

My prediction: Over

Deck tech here.

Spider-Man, Brooklyn VisionarySpider-Man, Brooklyn Visionary

This will be a sweet card to pull at your prerelease, but if you're running it as your commander, I must assume it's because you're also from Brooklyn.

My prediction: Under

Deck tech here.

Spider-Man, Miles MoralesSpider-Man, Miles Morales

Miles here can snowball quickly, especially if you equip him with Lightning GreavesLightning Greaves and swing the same turn you cast him. Furthermore, since Miles Morales is such a popular character from the comics (with the added name-brand recognition of the acclaimed Spider-Verse animated films), I suspect he can swing far beyond 1,200 decks.

My prediction: Over

Deck tech here.

Spider-Rex, Daring DinoSpider-Rex, Daring Dino

Oh Colossal DreadmawColossal Dreadmaw. Look how they massacred my boy!

My prediction: Under, For Spite

Deck tech here.

Spiders-Man, Heroic HordeSpiders-Man, Heroic Horde

Not sure I'd describe three pieces of cardboard as a "horde." And I certainly wouldn't pay six mana for them.

My prediction: Under

Recap

Over (12)

1. Anti-Venom, Horrifying HealerAnti-Venom, Horrifying Healer
2. Spider-Man, Peter ParkerSpider-Man, Peter Parker
3. Hydro-Man, Fluid FelonHydro-Man, Fluid Felon
4. Lady Octopus, Inspired InventorLady Octopus, Inspired Inventor
5. Black Cat, Cunning ThiefBlack Cat, Cunning Thief
6. Gwenom, RemorselessGwenom, Remorseless (Can't-Miss Pick)
7. Electro, Assaulting BatteryElectro, Assaulting Battery
8. Ghost-Spider, Gwen StacyGhost-Spider, Gwen Stacy
9. J. Jonah JamesonJ. Jonah Jameson
10. Lizard, Connors's CurseLizard, Connors's Curse
11. Spider-Ham, Peter PorkerSpider-Ham, Peter Porker
12. Spider-Man, Miles MoralesSpider-Man, Miles Morales

Under (40)

1. Arachne, Psionic WeaverArachne, Psionic Weaver
2. Aunt MayAunt May
3. Flash Thompson, Spider-FanFlash Thompson, Spider-Fan
4. MJ, Rising StarMJ, Rising Star
5. Silver Sable, Mercenary LeaderSilver Sable, Mercenary Leader
6. Spectacular Spider-ManSpectacular Spider-Man
7. Spider-Man, Web-SlingerSpider-Man, Web-Slinger
8. Spider-UKSpider-UK
9. Starling, Aerial AllyStarling, Aerial Ally
10. Beetle, Legacy CriminalBeetle, Legacy Criminal
11. Chameleon, Master of DisguiseChameleon, Master of Disguise
12. Doc Ock, Sinister ScientistDoc Ock, Sinister Scientist
13. Lyla, Holographic AssistantLyla, Holographic Assistant
14. Madame Web, ClairvoyantMadame Web, Clairvoyant
15. Mysterio, Master of IllusionMysterio, Master of Illusion
16. Spider-Byte, Web WardenSpider-Byte, Web Warden
17. Spider-Man 2099, Miguel O'HaraSpider-Man 2099, Miguel O'Hara
18. Agent VenomAgent Venom
19. Grendel, Spawn of KnullGrendel, Spawn of Knull
20. Morlun, Devourer of SpidersMorlun, Devourer of Spiders
21. Scorpion, Seething StrikerScorpion, Seething Striker
22. Spider-Man NoirSpider-Man Noir
23. Swarm, Being of BeesSwarm, Being of Bees
24. Tombstone, Career CriminalTombstone, Career Criminal
25. Venom, Eddie BrockVenom, Eddie Brock
26. Venom, Evil UnleashedVenom, Evil Unleashed
27. Hobgoblin, Mantled MarauderHobgoblin, Mantled Marauder
28. Molten Man, Inferno IncarnateMolten Man, Inferno Incarnate
29. Shocker, UnshakableShocker, Unshakable
30. Spider-Gwen, Free SpiritSpider-Gwen, Free Spirit
31. Spider-PunkSpider-Punk
32. Spinneret and SpiderlingSpinneret and Spiderling
33. Stegron the Dinosaur ManStegron the Dinosaur Man
34. The Mary JanesThe Mary Janes
35. Ezekiel Sims, Spider-TotemEzekiel Sims, Spider-Totem
36. Prowler, Misguided MentorProwler, Misguided Mentor
37. Sandman, Shifting ScoundrelSandman, Shifting Scoundrel
38. Spider-Man, Brooklyn VisionarySpider-Man, Brooklyn Visionary
39. Spider-Rex, Daring DinoSpider-Rex, Daring Dino
40. Spiders-Man, Heroic HordeSpiders-Man, Heroic Horde

Seeing a whole lot of Unders here, although that shouldn't be surprising for Magic's first-ever set with multiple common commanders. The power level just isn't super high here, especially for this super hero.

We'll see if it improves in part two, with our multicolor commanders, swinging at you soon. Until then, avoid any radioactive spiders — unless you can handle the responsibility.

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