Grub, Storied MatriarchGrub, Storied Matriarch | Art by Jesper Ejsing

Longtime readers might recall me saying this over and over, but I'm going to say it again: Lorwyn is my all-time favorite set. Now you get to hear me gush about it for 2,000 words. Enjoy!

This is The Over/Under, by the way, the article series where I predict how popular new commanders will become one year after release using a line of 1,200 decks. "Over" means I'm guessing the commander will finish with over 1,200, the opposite for "Under."

There's also one "Can't-Miss Pick" per set, which is my most certain (and therefore foolhardy) selection of all. We'll check back on our success or failure (minimal failure, I'm sure) in 2027.

So, who's ready to return to Magic's most whimsical plane (until they dropped Bloomburrow)? I am! Here's Lorwyn Eclipsed.

Rhys, the EvermoreRhys, the Evermore

If you’ve never played with persist before, you might as well call it pester, because it’s super bothersome. +1/+1 counters cancel out -1/-1 counters, so if you place the former on a persisted creature, you can persist—and pester—again. (Side note: With all the negative numbers in this set, I feel like I'm back in middle school math class. Just fail me now and get it over with.)

Of course, Rhys offers his own solution by simply removing the counters.

However you achieve persistent immortality, this makes cards like Selfless SpiritSelfless Spirit, Dauntless BodyguardDauntless Bodyguard, and so many more so much more annoying. And speaking of annoying—or downright terrifying—try turning Dark DepthsDark Depths into a creature while activating Rhys's ability.

But there's one giant flaw with Rhys, the Evermore: it's mono-white.

My prediction: Under

Deck tech here.

Ferrafor, Young YewFerrafor, Young Yew

Seven mana is a lot for a commander, especially when it requires setup for its ETB (enters the battlefield) ability, and only delivers max value with its tap ability. Also, what the heck kind of deck is going both wide and tall?

My prediction: Yew've got a lot to learn, kid (Under)

Sygg, Wanderwine WisdomSygg, Wanderwine Wisdom

On his front side, Sygg digs Lightning GreavesLightning Greaves, so he can provide that card-drawing bonus to himself. On the back, he somehow manipulates water into an arrow-stopping shield, which seems like he needs a physics lesson.

Either way, I'm not impressed by either side, and even together, they feel underwhelming. Probably designed more for other formats and less for Commander.

My prediction: Under

Deck tech here.

Grub, Storied MatriarchGrub, Storied Matriarch

One might shorthand this to a GravediggerGravedigger effect, but Grub retrieves other card types, too—so long as they’re kindred Goblins. That includes bangers like Fodder LaunchFodder Launch and the new Grub's CommandGrub's Command.

Her flip side works best when copying death-trigger Goblins like my pet card Mudbutton TorchrunnerMudbutton Torchrunner, which can then be revived by the front side if the blight trigger killed it.

Everything's working in harmony with this matriarch—which is remarkable, since Goblins aren't exactly harmonious.

My prediction: Over

Brigid, Clachan's HeartBrigid, Clachan's Heart

Although those flat, freaky Shadowmoor Kithkin eyes freak me out, I'd still consider running this commander as a go-wide payoff. She's almost like a slower Priest of TitaniaPriest of Titania that could give a changeling's behind about Elves, since Brigid's tapping works for any creature.

Furthermore, unlike the rest of this double-faced cycle, Brigid is content to just stay on her back side rather than flipping each turn.

...But if she stays there, could she at least put on some goggles?

My prediction: Over

Deck tech here.

Abigale, Eloquent First-YearAbigale, Eloquent First-Year

Man, if I’d been this capable in my first year of middle school, high school, or college, I would’ve been far more successful. I mean, there's nobody out there quite like Abigale. And I'm not just saying that in a supportive-dad sort of way.

Everyone’s been harping on the interaction with Death's ShadowDeath's Shadow, and though that is tantalizing, it’s difficult to engineer in a format with 40 starting life. I’d prefer Rotting RegisaurRotting Regisaur, or pretty much any creature from the average Xu-Ifit, OsteoharmonistXu-Ifit, Osteoharmonist deck.

Straight-A student right here—and you can put that on your mini-van bumper sticker.

My prediction: Over

Deck tech here.

Eirdu, Carrier of DawnEirdu, Carrier of Dawn

Eirdu could be renamed "Carrier of Keywords," because all four are outstanding. (They forgot banding, but we'll let that slide.)

Convoke is an excellent cost-reduction mechanic, and persist gets downright broken downright fast, as we just discussed with Rhys, the EvermoreRhys, the Evermore. With both in one commander, your creatures are going to be spawning and respawning faster than Mario. And hey, flying and lifelink aren't bad, either.

My prediction: Over

Deck tech here.

Ashling, RekindledAshling, Rekindled

I'll admit to being unimpressed by this commander at first glance. Seems a little mopey for one of these double-faced headliners, especially when compared to our last one.

And then I remembered Sol RingSol Ring. I mean, if you conceptualize Ashling as a Sol RingSol Ring from the command zone, she gets far more appealing. Just imagine casting actual Sol Ring on turn one, followed by Ashling on turn two. And then you call her, "Sol-ling," and your friends are like, "That was some clever word play, but now we're going to kill you," and then they do, but at least you got to play two Sol Rings.

My prediction: Over

Deck tech here.

Sanar, Innovative First-YearSanar, Innovative First-Year

Even my hairiest friends couldn’t grow so much as a hint of a beard in their first years of schooling, so we might want to check this guy’s birth certificate. Regardless of his age, he won’t be popular. Commander's color identity rule precludes you from netting more than two cards per activation, and you'll only keep one if both the revealed cards share a color. Granted, there are creative ways to grant Sanar additional colors...but is the juice worth the squeeze?

No. And stop squeezing Sanar's beard—there's no juice in there. Just run him in the 99 of your WUBRG deck, not all by his hirsute self.

My prediction: Under

Deck tech here.

High Perfect MorcantHigh Perfect Morcant

Perfect indeed. Never thought I’d see the day when Lathril, Blade of the ElvesLathril, Blade of the Elves lost Golgari's top commander spot, but Morcant could claim it. In fact, with the additional -1/-1 counter synergies, one could argue she’s also an improved version of Hapatra, Vizier of PoisonsHapatra, Vizier of Poisons, a commander boasting over 5,000 decks.

If this card doesn't go Over, I will eat 1,200 -1/-1 counters.

My prediction: Over (Please, for my health)

Deck tech here.

Lluwen, Imperfect NaturalistLluwen, Imperfect Naturalist

Satyr WayfinderSatyr Wayfinder and Worm HarvestWorm Harvest had a child. That child is Lluwen, and his parents are very disappointed in him.

Honestly, this card isn't that impressive. The milled creature or land goes on top, not in your hand, which is way worse than it sounds. Furthermore, your 1/3 is just sitting around for several turns afterward, vulnerable to all kinds of removal before you can use the activated ability.

This apple has fallen very far from the tree—and gotten some worms in it. Or maybe not enough?

My prediction: Under

Trystan, Callous CultivatorTrystan, Callous Cultivator

This card isn’t doing much for me. It’s already more expensive than the other legends in the cycle, and that extra cost doesn’t provide significant additional value. Milling and gaining or taking two life doesn’t cut it.

My prediction: Under

Bre of Clan StoutarmBre of Clan Stoutarm

Bre and Brion StoutarmBrion Stoutarm are a lot like Meg and Jack White: Everyone knows they’re related, but nobody's sure exactly how. And we're a little embarrassed to guess.

Rather than starting an uncomfortable conversation, let’s imagine a world where we give a creature flying and lifelink, then target it with Chandra's IgnitionChandra's Ignition.

The wording on the end step trigger is confusing, but basically, it means the more life you gain in a turn, the more likely you are to cast a free spell. Even if you can’t, it just goes into your hand. If Boros () players circa 2016 could see the card advantage we get now…

My prediction: Over (Can't-Miss Pick)

Deck tech here.

Kirol, Attentive First-YearKirol, Attentive First-Year

Nice to see Boros exploring some new design space with this and our previous commander. The obvious comp here is Strionic ResonatorStrionic Resonator, a card that appears in almost 200,000 decks. Seems like a good sign for our first-year here.

My prediction: Over

Deck tech here.

Tam, Mindful First-YearTam, Mindful First-Year

Mindfulness. I hate mindfulness. Instagram influencers cite it as their source of success, as if it isn’t just all the spon-con. Worse, they never define what mindfulness actually is.

But let me practice mindfulness for a second. Tam is not dissimilar to Mother of RunesMother of Runes. At times, she might be even better, since she provides passive protection to your creatures. Plus, granting a creature all colors means it can block attackers with fear and/or intimidate. Huh? Huh?

Other than that important scenario, protection offers more utility than hexproof, and Tam's abilities don't protect herself. Frankly, I'd rather have Mom in the command zone. Now we'd best move on before I rant about mindfulness again.

My prediction: Under

Auntie Ool, CursewretchAuntie Ool, Cursewretch

I’ve been hoping—nay, praying—for a stronger Jund Goblins commander than Shattergang BrothersShattergang Brothers. It seems my prayers have been answered—by a wretch, no less.

Many Goblins, like Mudbutton TorchrunnerMudbutton Torchrunner, can't wait to die, so loading -1/-1 counters on them becomes incidental upside, in addition to card advantage. Stacking them on opposing creatures should prove just as fruitful, especially with the opposing life loss. Getting both options in one? That sounds like an Over to me. Or an Ool-ver?

My prediction: Ool-ver

The Reaper, King No MoreThe Reaper, King No More

Now that the Reaper retired from his full-time job, he’s got more bandwidth for the finer things in life, like gardening, sailing, writing his memoir, and dumping -1/-1 counters on your opponents’ creatures so you can steal them later.

Theft commanders are fairly popular, so why not this one? I hear he even closed on a condo in Key West.

My prediction: Over

Deck tech here.

Doran, Besieged by TimeDoran, Besieged by Time

I thought Doran would age like Tom Brady. Instead, he’s aged like Bill Belichick. And if that means Doran also has a 24-year-old girlfriend, I'm concerned for all involved.

Regardless of his advanced age, Doran has a butt that won’t quit. He becomes a 5/10 when he attacks, while also pumping your other big-booty attackers, of which you’ll have many.

I can’t comment on Brady and Belichick's butts, but I can tell you this: If they play Magic, they'll be playing this commander.

My prediction: Over

Maralen, Fae AscendantMaralen, Fae Ascendant

Commander players are a lot like boggarts, in that they can’t resist stealing stuff. Maralen here isn’t a boggart— she’s an Elf. And also a Faerie. And also a Noble, although there's no need to brag about one's heritage. Anyway, don’t let all that confuse you—she can steal with the best of them.

Maralen provides the sort of overwhelming value we expect from Sultai, along with an outside shot of milling people out.

My prediction: Over

Ashling, the LimitlessAshling, the Limitless

I know Elementals aren’t a premier creature type, but they might be after this gal drops. She's like a kindred Tannuk, Steadfast SecondTannuk, Steadfast Second, despite the day-zero errata, which specifies Elemental creature spells getting evoke, not just any Elementals. At any rate, it's a good sign, since Tannuk's already over the Over.

And best of all? Ashling is five-color. And five-color commanders almost always go one way. (Hint: It’s not Under.)

My prediction: Over

Mass of MysteriesMass of Mysteries

Five colors, classic keywords, and an outrageous combat trigger. The only mystery is how long it'll take to go Over, if it hasn't already.

My prediction: Not Long at All (In Other Words, Over)

Deck tech here.

Recap

Over (14)

1. Grub, Storied MatriarchGrub, Storied Matriarch
2. Brigid, Clachan's HeartBrigid, Clachan's Heart
3. Abigale, Eloquent First-YearAbigale, Eloquent First-Year
4. Eirdu, Carrier of DawnEirdu, Carrier of Dawn
5. Ashling, RekindledAshling, Rekindled
6. High Perfect MorcantHigh Perfect Morcant
7. Bre of Clan StoutarmBre of Clan Stoutarm (Can't-Miss Pick)
8. Kirol, Attentive First-YearKirol, Attentive First-Year
9. Auntie Ool, CursewretchAuntie Ool, Cursewretch
10. The Reaper, King No MoreThe Reaper, King No More
11. Doran, Besieged by TimeDoran, Besieged by Time
12. Maralen, Fae AscendantMaralen, Fae Ascendant
13. Ashling, the LimitlessAshling, the Limitless
14. Mass of MysteriesMass of Mysteries

Under (7)

1. Rhys, the EvermoreRhys, the Evermore
2. Ferrafor, Young YewFerrafor, Young Yew
3. Sygg, Wanderwine WisdomSygg, Wanderwine Wisdom
4. Sanar, Innovative First-YearSanar, Innovative First-Year
5. Lluwen, Imperfect NaturalistLluwen, Imperfect Naturalist
6. Trystan, Callous CultivatorTrystan, Callous Cultivator
7. Tam, Mindful First-YearTam, Mindful First-Year

Are my elf eyes cheated by some spell, or is that everyone? I'm surprised, considering our last set, Avatar, had so many commanders I had to split them into two articles. Most sets these days have too many, so it's refreshing to go minimalist. Plus, it gives me extra word-space to compliment the set.

Lorwyn Eclipsed feels, in a word, right. Everything about this set is spot-on, from the art to the flavor to the mechanics to the commanders. It's the right way to kick off the year, and it bodes well for all to come.

Except Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles. Now that's a set I'm not looking forward to.