NegateNegate | Art by Billy Christian

Welcome back to Fire and Ice! This is our data-driven series where I go over cards that are becoming more or less popular for different Commander decks, and talk about why they may be gaining or losing popularity. I'm Julia, EDHREC's Duchess of Data, and I'm super excited to jump into today's article!

EDHREC, of course, has a ton of data. We'll draw conclusions from that data about how certain commanders' decks have changed over time, give insight into how the format's players are thinking about new cards, hopefully giving you some cool tech for your favorite commander's list.

Last week, we let you pick which commanders we'd take a look at for this article. As expected... Commander players really hate Tergrid, God of FrightTergrid, God of Fright. She came last in our reprised poll, meaning that she won't be the focus of this week's article. Instead, we'll be focusing this week's article on Orvar, the All-FormOrvar, the All-Form and Gishath, Sun's AvatarGishath, Sun's Avatar! They received 47% and 31% of the vote, respectively, as of the time of writing, and they should allow us to make some interesting insights this week. If you'd like to help us pick our subjects for next week, take a look at the poll at the end of this edition!

Orvar, the All-FormOrvar, the All-Form

Hot and Cold Cards for Orvar, the All-Form

Orvar is certainly a unique commander. It's really only got one relevant line of rules text in our singleton format, but that line of text is quite powerful:

Whenever you cast an instant or sorcery spell, if it targets one or more other permanents you control, create a token that’s a copy of one of those permanents.

This lets us copy lands, creatures with ETB triggers, and even powerful mana rocks. Orvar decks often contain infinite combos, too, leveraging his powerful ability to make infinite creature tokens. Orvar's quite popular, sitting as the #180 commander on EDHREC as of the time of writing. If it were legal in EDH, this deck would certainly play IndicateIndicate!

Orvar's most popular card is Mind GamesMind Games, an easy way to target a powerful permanent that's in 80% of decks. Peregrine DrakePeregrine Drake is also popular, as part of a simple combo with cards like Mind Games. It's in 67% of decks. ArchaeomancerArchaeomancer is popular too, finding a slot for its powerful and repeatable enters trigger. It's in 71% of decks.

What's Fiery for Orvar Decks?

The hottest card for this deck is Mental ModulationMental Modulation, a dinky little common from Edge of Eternities. This cantrip's got a super high Fire Score of 7.47, and it's not hard to see why. In almost all cases, this is a one-mana, instant-speed way to target something that replaces itself in your hand. It's really hard for an Orvar deck to ask for more out of a spell.

Similar logic holds for Magic DamperMagic Damper, another instant with a Fire Score of 3.73. This is a cheap way to target a creature to copy it, and it doubles as an on-rate protection spell. Both of these recently released cards have all the makings of Orvar mainstays.

Next up, let's look at two middle-of-the-mana-curve card advantage engines. Voracious BibliophileVoracious Bibliophile has a Fire Score of 4.55, and Archmage of RunesArchmage of Runes has a Fire Score of 2.91. Both of these cards are fantastic in this deck, keeping our hand full as we create more and more token copies of our best permanents. As I've said many times before, I love this sort of card. Four- and five-drop value engines make my heart happy, so it's great to see them getting more popular with Orvar players.

Our next Fiery card is Relm's SketchingRelm's Sketching, a nifty copy spell with a Fire Score of 2.74. Although there are certainly cheaper ways to target permanents, there are few that actually make token copies all on their own. This card is super cool, and I expect to see it in tons of -based decks going forward.

Our final two hot cards are long-time EDH staples. SnapSnap's got a Fire Score of 2.28, and Aether ChannelerAether Channeler's got a Fire Score of 2.41. Snap is a nice modal spell in this deck: it lets us either bounce one of our own creatures to make a copy of it and re-cast it later or get rid of an opponent's biggest threat. Aether Channeler is similarly flexible, letting us choose one of three extremely useful modes whenever we make a token copy of it.

What's Icy for Orvar Decks?

Now, let's look at what's Icy for Orvar. The vast majority of our Icy cards fall into the same category: repeatable ways to target permanents. With all the new target tech coming out, it seems that some old cards are falling out of favor with pilots. To my point, Alter RealityAlter Reality has an Ice Score of -3.17, Trait DoctoringTrait Doctoring has an Ice Score of -2.78, GlamerdyeGlamerdye has an Ice Score of -2.47, Mind GamesMind Games has an Ice Score of -2.31, and ClockspinningClockspinning has an Ice Score of -2.21. Orvar players are likely looking towards cheaper, and one-time-use, options in their place.

There are a few other cold cards, one of which is Step ThroughStep Through with an Ice Score of -3.12. This is a classic mono-blue tutor, and it can fetch powerful cards like SpellseekerSpellseeker and Thassa's OracleThassa's Oracle. Outside of those cases, however, it's pretty much useless, which may be limiting its popularity right now.

Another tutor, Whir of InventionWhir of Invention, has also seen its popularity falter. It's got an Ice Score of -2.10, and that's likely because there's only a few powerful artifacts that gel with our gameplan. While Mirror BoxMirror Box and PanharmoniconPanharmonicon are powerful, it's likely not worth spending a deck slot on a tutor to find them.

Our last cold card is CloudpostCloudpost, with an Ice Score of -2.21. Although it's certainly powerful to make a whole bunch of Cloudpost copies, there's just not very many ways for a mono-blue deck to tutor for this land with any degree of consistency.

What's in a Orvar, the All-Form Deck?

Here's an Orvar list that includes all our hot cards and none of our cold cards.

Gishath, Sun's AvatarGishath, Sun's Avatar

Hot and Cold Cards for Gishath, Sun's Avatar

This is a powerful deck that seeks to ramp up to its commander as fast as possible, then slam a bunch of Dinosaurs onto the board with his combat damage trigger. Magic players love Dinosaurs, and Gishath currently sits as EDHREC's #17 commander!

This dino's most popular cards are ramp pieces and big Dinosaurs, to nobody's surprise. FarseekFarseek can help us ramp and color fix us (it's in 65% of decks), Earthshaker DreadmawEarthshaker Dreadmaw pays us off for having a full board (it's in 68% of decks, and Topiary StomperTopiary Stomper is a perfect fit for this commander (it's in 65% of decks).

What's Fiery for Gishath Decks?

A whole bunch of this Dinosaur's hottest cards are... other Dinosaurs! There's new Dinos, like Balamb T-RexaurBalamb T-Rexaur with a Fire Score of 2.40, and old Dinos, like Pantlaza, Sun-FavoredPantlaza, Sun-Favored with a Fire Score of 2.01. Other hot cards include Regal BehemothRegal Behemoth with a Fire Score of 2.65, Bonehoard DracosaurBonehoard Dracosaur with a Fire Score of 2.47, and Trumpeting CarnosaurTrumpeting Carnosaur with a Fire Score of 2.05. Interestingly, most of the creatures that are Fiery for Gishath have a converted mana cost of five or less, and the two cards that don't fit this description (BalambT-Rexaur and Trumpeting Carnosaur) have modes that let us discard them for a beneficial effect for less mana. This tells me that players are looking for cheaper, low-to-the-ground Dinosaurs that they can reasonably cast if their lightning rod commander gets removed.

The remaining two hot cards for Gishath are more generic EDH staples. Three VisitsThree Visits and Smothering TitheSmothering Tithe have Fire Scores of 2.23 and 2.00, respectively. Both of these cards are castable before our commander, and they provide us with the mana we'll need to slam him onto the board a few turns later. They're great cards in any Naya deck, and they make sense as includes here.

What's Icy for Gishath Decks?

Three of Gishath's coldest cards are ones with Enrage: Ranging RaptorsRanging Raptors (Ice Score of -3.92), Silverclad FerocidonsSilverclad Ferocidons (Ice Score of -3.17), and PolyraptorPolyraptor (Ice Score of -2.89). These cards fit better in a Wayta, Trainer ProdigyWayta, Trainer Prodigy list than they do in this list, so players are likely finding new homes for their angry Dinos.

Next up, a group of cards that generally synergize with Dinos find themselves in the cold category. Forerunner of the EmpireForerunner of the Empire has an Ice Score of -3.29, Commune with DinosaursCommune with Dinosaurs has an Ice Score of -2.22, and Welcome to . . .Welcome to . . . has an Ice Score of -2.02. These are cool cards, but each of them is somewhat underpowered. Forerunner of the Empire makes us wait a turn to get the card we tutored for and has a lackluster Impact TremorsImpact Tremors-style ability. Commune with Dinosaurs can fail to find us the removal spell we sorely need in a right moment, and can only be used at sorcery speed. And, finally, Welcome to... makes us wait a full three turns for its (admittedly very powerful) effect.

We also see four ramp pieces falling to the wayside for many pilots. Atzocan SeerAtzocan Seer has an Ice Score of -2.73, Kinjalli's CallerKinjalli's Caller has an Ice Score of -2.24, Drover of the MightyDrover of the Mighty has an Ice Score of -2.17, and Mirari's WakeMirari's Wake has an Ice Score of -2.02. All of these cards are very strong, but this is a three-color deck with access to both mana ramp and mana-fixing for just one mana (Birds of ParadiseBirds of Paradise, Avacyn's PilgrimAvacyn's Pilgrim, Delighted HalflingDelighted Halfling, etc.). As thematic as these cards are, they just can't compete with the best ramp this format's got to offer.

Supririsngly, Boros Charm's got an Ice Score of -2.46. I think this card is fantastic, and is definitely the Icy card I disagree with most. It does a bit of everything this deck wants, and costs just two mana to boot. I would keep this in my personal Gishath list, but it seems that a lot of players disagree with me!

Our last cold card is Carnage TyrantCarnage Tyrant, a cool (if somewhat generic) creature with an Ice Score of -2.44. This card has likely been swapped out directly for Balamb T-Rexaur, given the two card's similar Fire and Ice Scores. The newer Dino just provides more options to a deckbuilder than the older one does, so a 1:1 swap seems about right here.

What's in a Gishath, Sun's Avatar Deck?

Here's a Gishath list with all of his Fiery cards included and all of his Icy cards excluded.

Conclusion

Thanks for reading this week's edition of Fire and Ice! If you'd like to help us pick next week's commanders, please respond to the poll below:

View Poll