Fire / / IceFire / / Ice | art by Dan Scott
Hello, and welcome to Fire // IceFire // Ice, a brand new data-driven series where we'll go over some cards that are gaining and losing popularity in various Commander decks. I'm Julia, EDHREC's Duchess of Data.
Of course, EDHREC has a ton of data. Using that data, we'll draw some conclusions about how certain commander's decks are changing over time, give some insight into how the format's players are thinking about new cards, and maybe even give you some cool tech for your favorite commander's list.
With all that said, let's jump right into it.
Nekusar, the MindrazerNekusar, the Mindrazer
Nekusar is an absolute menace for EDH players. This deck churns out damage using its commander's abilities and can make short work of any tables that don't have a way to deal with him quickly.
Nekusar is all in on punishing its opponents for playing the game and is feared for good reason. Looking quickly at its most popular cards, we see that 61% of Nekusar decks are running Razorkin NeedleheadRazorkin Needlehead, 61% have Dark DealDark Deal, and 61% contain Psychosis CrawlerPsychosis Crawler.
What's Fiery for Nekusar Decks?
Now that we've got a grasp on what Nekusar does, let's see what cards are trending up for these decks since January of this year.
Some new cards, like Mistrise VillageMistrise Village, slot really nicely into this deck. From Tarkir: Dragonstorm, it's actually the highest riser among all Nekusar decks, with a Fire Score of 5.77. After all, no one wants their spells countered when they're trying to group slug their way through a game.
But, beyond the new cards, there's some really interesting rising stars:
- Reforge the SoulReforge the Soul, 2.44 Fire Score
- Wheel of MisfortuneWheel of Misfortune, 2.25 Fire Score
- Molten PsycheMolten Psyche, 2.09 Fire Score
These wheels all fit nicely into the deck's general group slug gameplan, so it's interesting to see that so many decks didn't have them included before.
Now, onto some more niche inclusions. Liliana's CaressLiliana's Caress has a high Fire Score of 2.54 This card pairs nicely with the wheels often included in Nekusar lists, and players have taken notice.
Sigil of SleepSigil of Sleep has been a big riser too, seeing a Fire Score of 2.13. This card comes to us all the way from 1999's Urza's Destiny, and can turn our commander's already-bothersome pings into game-ending removal, too.
What's Icy for Nekusar Decks?
And, if cards are finding their way into Nekusar lists, other cards have got to come out. While the cuts from these decks are varied, three cards lead the pack with big changes in deck inclusion rate.
Seizan, Perverter of TruthSeizan, Perverter of Truth has a Ice Score of -3.58, the lowest score we'll see for this deck. This may be because of its mana cost: this card sits at the same slot in the curve as our commander.
Phyrexian TyrannyPhyrexian Tyranny has seen a big drop, too, with a slightly more extreme Ice Score of -3.45.While this card is good, its restrictive mana cost may be too much for deckbuilders to justify.
And, lastly, Fevered VisionsFevered Visions has a -3.38 Ice Score.
Nekusar pilots may be looking for ways to deal more damage than just two-per-turn, possibly justifying this card's large percent change.
Chatterfang, Squirrel GeneralChatterfang, Squirrel General
Chatterfang is another super popular commander, leading nearly 20,000 decks and finding himself as the 23rd most popular commander as of the time of writing.
We'll see some notoriously powerful cards gaining popularity here, as some cute on-theme cards fall out of favor. That said, let's see what we can find squirrelled away in Chatterfang's data.
For those of you who haven't had the chance to play against Chatterfang, the deck generally aims to fill the board with tokens and drain out its opponents with Aristocrats-themed win conditions.
Some popular cards for the deck include SkullclampSkullclamp (73% of decks), Zulaport CutthroatZulaport Cutthroat (68% of decks), and Tireless ProvisionerTireless Provisioner (64% of decks).
What's Fiery for Chatterfang Decks?
There's a few cards that have seen big rises in popularity, including eight cards that have seen big jumps in inclusion this year. Let's take a peek at some of the most interesting risers.
First up is Warren SoultraderWarren Soultrader, carrying a Fire Score of 3.64. This card fits right in with the deck's aristocrat and token themes, making it a great inclusion.
It's also got a huge number of combos that make use of it within Chatterfang's black-green color identity.
Another popular addition is Diabolic IntentDiabolic Intent. This card got a Fire Score of 2.64, and it does a pretty good impression of Diabolic TutorDiabolic Tutor in a deck with so many disposable creatures.
Last but not least is Nature's RhythmNature's Rhythm, another card from Tarkir: Dragonstorm that's found a home in one of the format's most popular decks. This card works great with the creature-heavy, graveyard-centric gameplan of the deck, so it's no surprise that it tops our list here with a Fire Score of 4.78.
What's Icy for Chatterfang Decks?
Quite a few cards have seen big drops in popularity, too, with nine cards seeing their inclusion rate drop by precipitously.
The card that left the most decks, by far, is Squirrel MobSquirrel Mob with a Ice Score of -4.39 (the lowest we'll see today). While this card is cool and thematic for players who'd like a Squirrel-centric build, paying for a large creature with no built-in evasion is much less appealing now than it has been in the past.
The same holds true for Drey KeeperDrey Keeper, a card that's got a Ice Score of -3.84. While this card is certainly flavorful, a higher casting cost and an expensive activated ability have likely taken this card out of contention for a slot in Chatterfang's army.
The last card that we'll touch on today is one that I wouldn't have expected to be on this list.
While Squirrel SovereignSquirrel Sovereign has a Ice Score of -3.74, I view it as a key role-player for lower bracket Chatterfang lists. However, it's possible that it's being replaced by the popular (and consequently more expensive) Treasure-maker Warren SoultraderWarren Soultrader, as demonstrated in the mirrored pattern of usage in the line graph below for these two cards.
Until next time, Stay Cool (or Hot)!
That's all we have for this week, but we'll be back soon with another edition of Fire // IceFire // Ice. For now, I'd love to hear from you. Let me know what commander's you'd like a data deep dive on in the comments below. I'll take a few of the most interesting picks and include them in the next installment in this series. Until then, happy brewing!
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