Fire // IceFire // Ice | art by David Martin & Franz Vohwinkel

Hello, and welcome back to Fire // IceFire // Ice, a data-driven series where we'll go over some cards that are gaining and losing popularity in various Commander decks. I'm Julia, EDHREC's Duchess of Data.

Of course, EDHREC has a ton of data. Using this data, we'll draw some conclusions about how certain commander's decks are changing over time, give some insight into how players are thinking about new cards, and maybe even give you some cool tech for your favorite commander's list. Now, let's jump right into it!

For information on how we calculate the Fire and Ice Scores used in this article, check out this writeup.

Breya, Etherium ShaperBreya, Etherium Shaper

Breya has long been one of the format's most popular commanders, and currently sits at the #46 spot on our top commander list.

This 4-color deck wants us to fill our deck with synergistic artifacts, and rewards us with a powerful sacrifice outlet in the command zone. This deck can get quite powerful, and Breya herself is part of over a dozen infinite combos.

Breya decks have diverse game plans, but some popular cards include Sai, Master ThopteristSai, Master Thopterist (in 60% of decks), SkullclampSkullclamp (in 54% of decks), and Etherium SculptorEtherium Sculptor (in 56% of decks).

Now that we know what Breya does, let's see what cards are hot and cold for her deckbuilders!

What's Fiery for Breya Decks?

Artifact decks have gotten a lot of love recently, especially from Aetherdrift. First, and most popular, is Stridehangar AutomatonStridehangar Automaton with a super high Fire Score of 6.73, the highest we've seen so far in this series.

Looking closely at the card, it's not hard to see why this card is being put in so many Breya lists. It's an anthem for the most common artifact creature token that these decks have access to, it's functionally a token-doubler in most scenarios, and it's part of even more combos than Breya herself is. This card is a slam dunk include here.

Next up is Daretti, Scrap SavantDaretti, Scrap Savant, who has a Fire Score of 2.81 despite being released over a decade ago. This card is a great include in Breya decks, providing valuable card selection and artifact recursion. I'm surprised that this card's inclusion rate has risen so much recently, given its age. But, it's a powerful card that works well in the deck.

Finally, there's Voyage HomeVoyage Home with a Fire Score of 3.19. In decks that easily create huge boards full of artifacts, this card is essentially Healing SalveHealing Salve and Ancestral RecallAncestral Recall stapled together.

This is one such artifact-heavy deck, so it tracks that this card has been slotted into a ton of Breya decks since it was released earlier this year.

What's Icy for Breya Decks?

There's a few cards that have been taken out of Breya decks recently, but none seem to have left as many decks as CounterspellCounterspell. With an Ice Score of -3.98, deckbuilders are shying away from this OG piece of counteraction.

I'd hazard a guess that Breya's deckbuilders are more focused on mana-efficient or easier-to-cast interaction, and would rather run countermagic that is free or closer to it. Magic, in general, is printing more and more exciting cards that Breya pilots may want to try out in place of old staples.

We also see big drops in deck inclusion rate for noted Game Changer Rhystic StudyRhystic Study and ReshapeReshape, two very powerful cards. Rhystic Study has an Ice Score of -2.93 and Reshape has an Ice Score of -2.82.

Given the implementation of the bracket system, and these cards' status as a Game Changer and a tutor respectively, players who'd rather play in Bracket 3 pods may be slotting these cards out so that they can comfortably sit at those tables.

These cards are about as good as it gets for card advantage and tutors in high-powered casual decks, so I'm guessing that these cards' changes in inclusion rate indicate that some players are moving their decks down the bracket system.

Notably, Crime NovelistCrime Novelist has also fallen out of Breya lists, with an Ice Score of -2.11. This card is really cool, and I expected it to be quite popular following its release in Murders at Karlov Manor. But, it's included in just 2.33% of eligible decks, and appears to be leaving a significant number of Breya decks recently.

This card is powerful, but requires a specifically crafted board state to unlock its full potential. Breya players may be leaning towards easier-to-activate value engines, like some of the cards we talked about in the Fiery section for this commander.

Recent trend data for Breya, Etherium Shaper

Marneus CalgarMarneus Calgar

Marneus looks to make a lot of tokens, a lot of the time. To be more specific, this deck wants to have a ton of tokens that enter the battlefield at different times so that our commander can provide huge amounts of card advantage.

This commander was also the leader of a preconstructed deck from the Warhammer 40K series, so a lot of its pilots have upgraded copies of that deck to make it their own.

All that said, some of the most popular cards in Marneus decks include Nadir KrakenNadir Kraken (in 57% of decks), Ashnod's AltarAshnod's Altar (which combos with Nadir Kraken and is in 45% of decks), and Kambal, Profiteering MayorKambal, Profiteering Mayor (in 48% of decks).

What's Fiery for Marneus Decks?

By far the highest rising card in Marneus Calgar decks is Voice of VictoryVoice of Victory, with a Fire Score of 5.98. This Grand AbolisherGrand Abolisher variant works perfectly in this deck, as its Mobilize trigger makes some creature tokens that its commander turns into card advantage. And, it's got the most important parts of Grand Abolisher on an easier-to-cast body, making it invaluable for some higher power versions of this deck.

Now, let's talk about a card we also talked about last week: Warren SoultraderWarren Soultrader. This card has a Fire Score of 2.93 in Marneus decks, and its easy to see why. It's a (virtually) free sacrifice outlet that draws us a card every time we activate it with our commander on the battlefield.

It's pretty difficult to think of a sac outlet that's more efficient than this for token decks, so it makes a lot of sense that its growing in popularity for Marneus players.

Next up is a card that might seem somewhat strange at first glance, but actually works perfectly in the deck. Amphibian DownpourAmphibian Downpour costs twice as much as a typical FrogifyFrogify effect, but... it has Storm.

Because copies of this card on the stack will enter the battlefield at separate times as tokens, each copy of this card on the stack represents a piece of removal and a card drawn. That's extremely powerful, and Marenus pilots are taking notice.

What's Icy for Marneus Decks?

There's actually only two cards that are leaving a significant number of Marenus Calgar decks: Space Marine DevastatorSpace Marine Devastator and Ultramarines Honour GuardUltramarines Honour Guard.

Both of these cards are good, and both of them can make token copies of themselves, and both of them were included in the original precon from 2022. They've got Ice Scores of -2.04 and -2.09 respectively.

But, as more players upgrade their decks with new cards from Tarkir: Dragonstorm and Final Fantasy, these less powerful Squad cards are likely being taken out for the new hotness.